• Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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• no.39
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• pp.167-187
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• 2008

This study explores the trends of social security expenditures after financial crisis in welfare states. For the purpose, this study analyzes changes in social expenditures during 1980~2003 in 22 OECD countries. The results show that average total social security expenditure(as a percentage of GDP) among the 22 countries increased from 18.0% in 1980 to 22.3% in 2003. Compared to sharp increases during the great expansion period of the welfare state before 1980s, the increase in social expenditures after 1980s is substantially weakened. The slowdown in the increases of social expenditures is remarkable in the social democratic welfare states where social expenditures have already reached a high level. On the other hand, social expenditures are considerably increased in the lagged welfare states such as South European countries and Japan. As a result, the cross-national difference in social expenditures has continuously decreased. These findings suggest that financial crisis is a key factor of welfare-state reorganization. Countries where social expenditures are in high level need more reforms under the pressure of financial deficits. Since 1980s, they have tried various reforms especially in pensions and unemployment benefits. Facing new and increasing demands for social security as well as financial limitations, the welfare state needs major reforms in the social security system to increase effectiveness/efficiency of existing programs and to iron out priorities among programs.

• 해운
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• s.84
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• pp.10-16
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• 2011

2002년 이후 지속되어온 미국의 재정적자가 금융위기 중 확대되면서 미국 국가채무가 2012년에는 GDP를 초과할 것으로 전망된다. 미 의회는 5개월 이상 협상을 지속한 결과 2011년 8월 1일 국가채무 한도 상향조정을 포함한 예산통제법을 통과시켜 국가부도사태는 발발하지 않았다. 이러한 미 의회의 국가채무 한도 상향 조정에도 불구하고, S&P는 지난 8월 3일 미국의 국가신용등급을 AAA에서 AA+로 강등하였으며, 주식시장의 경우도 미국의 재정지출 감축으로 인한 경기회복지연, 신용등급 강등 영향으로 인한 국제금융시장의 위험자산 회피현상으로 급락하였다. 미국 재정지출 감축과 위험자산 회피현상에 따른 우리나라의 국내총생산 감소는 미미할 것으로 분석되지만, 재정긴축 계획으로 향후 5년 동안 미국 경제에 평균 -0.5%정도의 GDP 감소 효과가 있으며, 우리나라 GDP도 평균적으로 -0.02% 정도 감소시킬 것이다. 이에 따라 우리나라 기업들도 미국 재정긴축 및 신용등급 강등으로 인하여 발생할 수 있는 사항들을 다각적으로 분석하여 대처를 할 필요성이 제기되고 있다. 다음은 대외경제정책연구원에서 발표한 "미국 재정긴축 및 신용등급 강등의 효과분석"의 주요 내용을 정리 요약한 것이다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.71-105
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• 2013

Now that fiscal soundness is increasingly important influenced by the euro area fiscal crisis, early budget execution has been under the spotlight as a tool for economy control, other than typical expansionary method, such as supplementary budget. Basically, early budget execution is a fiscal policy instrument that reponses to economic fluctuations through modifying the inter-temporal allocation of fiscal expenditure within budget, without affecting fiscal soundness. This study empirically examines how effective the intert-temporal reallocation of fiscal expenditure is in economy control. Using Korea's Consolidated Fiscal data, the size of inter-temporal reallocation of fiscal expenditure is defined as changes of fiscal expenditure for one year excluding seasonal factors and used to explain real economic growth rate, a dependent variable. The result shows that the macroeconomic effect of the inter-temporal reallocation turns out meaningful in general, though some policy time lag exists. Meanwhile, a simulation using macroeconomic model finds that overall effect on economic growth is not large because increase in fiscal expenditure allocation at a certain point of time is canceled by the opposite direction within the same fiscal year. However, the inter-temporal reallocation is found to reduce volatility of key macroeconomic variables so as to contribute to partially stabilizing macroeconomy. In particular, such effect of economic stabilization seems to be highly apparent at the time of financial crisis, but not very noticeable in normal economic cycle.

• 한국사회정책
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.1-24
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• 2016

This paper examines whether the pension systems of the western countries which was traditionally classified into the Beveridgean and Bismarckian pension regime will converge after recent pension reforms in the financial sustainability and adequacy perspective by comparing between UK, Germany and Sweden. As a result of pension reforms for the last 20 years, the gap between the Beveridgean and Bismarckian pension regime will be likely to decrease and, in particular, the tendency to convergency in adequacy is found. Even though it is not jumped to a conclusion that public pension expenditure between the three countries is likely to converge, the tendency to convergency in financial sustainability is also found if the difference of demographic aging between countries is considered. The paper suggests that it is necessary to make agreement between the range of pension expenditure and replacement ratio that western countries suggest in pension debate in Korea, instead of hitherto useless controversy between financial sustainability and adequacy.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.60 no.1
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• pp.159-185
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• 2008

The balance between centralization (power concentrated nationally) and decentralization (power devolved to local government) is a perennial issue in the field of social welfare administration. In the design of social welfare administration, values and assumptions related to decentralization and centralization generally are expressed in choices concerning pluralism versus uniformity, small versus large. In this context, this article tried to find and analyze the problems of financial decentralization of social welfare pursued by No Moo-hyun government. The decentralization of social welfare caused horizontal inequity between local governments, lack of social welfare finance of local government, and impediment of local government finance autonomy.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.27-68
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• 2012

This study outlines measures related to fiscal policies aimed at responding to the financial crisis according to the timing of commencement and then examines impacts of expansionary fiscal policies on macro variables so as to extract policy implications. The size of expansionary fiscal policy to respond to the financial crisis is found to total 59.8 trillion won (6.1% of GDP in 2007), among which a total of 30.5 trillion won was the increased fiscal expenditure made by the 2008 supplementary budget, the 2009 revised budget and the 2009 supplementary budget. In addition, tax reductions are found to be a total of 29.3 trillion won, mainly driven by the tax reforms in 2008 and 2009. Examining dynamic changes in macro variables caused by the temporary increase in fiscal expenditure and the tax reductions reveals that the increase effect of the real GDP growth rate brought by a temporary rise in fiscal expenditure excluding tax reduction effects turned out to be 1.1%p in 2009 and 0.3%p in 2010, compared to the period without the increase in fiscal expenditure. Meanwhile, when taking into account the effect of expansionary fiscal policies including tax reduction effects, the increase effect of real GDP turns out to be much higher. In the case of 2009, the real GDP rose additionally by 1.9%p, in which 1.1%p by the increase in fiscal expenditure and 0.8%p by tax reduction. Based on these results, the expansionary fiscal policy conducted during the financial crisis since the second half of 2008 can be seen to have played a significant role in helping the Korean economy post a higher-than-anticipated recovery pace from the economic slowdown triggered by the crisis.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.293-312
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• 2020

코로나19의 확산으로 야기된 경기침체를 극복하기 위해 세계 각국이 적극적인 확장 재정정책을 도입하고 있다. 1930년대 대공황 시기와 비교되며 '뉴딜식' 정책이 제안되기도 하는데, 그중 하나가 이른바 '그린뉴딜'이다. 그린뉴딜은 경기부양을 목적으로 환경 분야 지출을 확대하는 것으로서, 재정정책과 환경정책 두 가지 측면의 효과를 모두 '주목적'으로 하는 정책 수단이다. 우리 정부도 경기를 부양하고 포스트 코로나19 시대에 대응하기 위해 그린뉴딜을 한 축으로 하는 '한국판 뉴딜' 정책 추진 방안을 발표하였다. 최근 녹색전환과 기후변화 대응의 필요성에 대한 사회적 관심이 높아지면서 그린뉴딜 추진 방안과 관련하여 다각도로 구체적인 논의가 이루어지고 있다. 이 글은 환경 분야 사업을 그린뉴딜 방식으로 추진할 때 기대되는 재정 정책 및 환경정책 측면에서의 효과를 고찰하는 한편 향후 국내 코로나19로 야기되는 경기침체에 대응하기 위한 목적으로 그린뉴딜을 추진할 때 염두에 두어야 할 정책적 고려사항을 제안한다.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.217-254
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is comparing fiscal sustainability of 17 welfare states. Borrowed the concept of fiscal space to Ostry et al(2010) and Ghosh et al(2011), this study measures the fiscal sustainability in welfare states. Using data collected from 20 OECD countries from 1986 to 2013, this study attempts to evaluate the financial sustainability of each country. As a result, it is necessary that the appropriate level of tax burden is secured. Tax revenue is the funded basis for maintaining the welfare state, so increasing tax compliance to offset the negative impact of increasing welfare spending will promote social cohesion. In therms of tax structure, in accordance with the ability to pay principle, it is important to raise the equity between the source of taxation. Reducing the gap between labor and capital tax is required to achieve horizontal equity, It is also useful to utilize the financial base of the welfare state by broadening the tax base though a consumption tax. Improving the vertical equity can also make a positive contribution to the fiscal sustainability of the welfare state.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.100-137
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• 2019

In this study, I analyzed the effects of government spending on macro variables and on each industry by using a factor augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) and 167 macro-variables in Korea since 2000. The results reveal that the effects of two types of government spending - government consumption and government investment - greatly differ, therefore it is better to consider the two types of spending separately for a more precise analysis. The stimulus effects of government consumption are clear, but those of government investment are not. In addition, the crowding-out effects of government spending take place through the current account deficit channel rather than the traditional crowding-out channel, reducing private consumption and investment. Both types of government spending show a positive effect on the construction industry. Also, an increase in government consumption stimulates output in various manufacturing and service sectors.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.629-640
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• 2022

This study analyzed the relationship between local government size and regional economic growth using regional data from 2002 to 2020. By dividing local government expenditure into social development expenditure and economic development expenditure, economic growth and the inverted U-shaped Armey curve were verified, and the optimal size of local government expenditure was examined. In particular, the AMG estimation method considering the cross-sectional dependence and regional heterogeneity existing in the panel data was utilized. As a result of the analysis, it was found that there was an inverted U-shaped relationship between local fiscal expenditure and regional economic growth. When the proportion of total local fiscal expenditure is 7.63% of GRDP and social development expenditure is 3.45%, it is found that the optimal size of expenditure can maximize the regional economic growth rate. Local governments should increase the effectiveness of public expenditure policies by considering these points.