• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.2148-2152
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• 2009

하천수질보전을 위한 필요유량은 하천유지유량 항목 중 하나로써 환경기초시설 등으로 최대한 처리한 후 남는 오염부하량을 고려하여 적정 수질을 유지하는데 필요한 유량을 의미한다. 하천수질보전을 위한 필요 유량을 산정하는 절차는 (1) 수질특성 파악 및 평가대상 항목의 선정, (2) 목표연도 및 목표수질 기준 설정, (3) 오염부하량 조사 및 목표연도별 오염부하량 산정, (4) 수질예측모형의 선정 및 수질예측, (5) 목표수질과의 비교 및 필요유량의 설정으로 이루어질 수 있다. 현재 우리나라에서는 수질평가 항목으로 여러 가지가 제시되어 있지만 주로 생물화학적 산소요구량(BOD)만으로 목표수질을 설정하고 있는 실정이며, 수질예측 모형으로써 QUAL2E 모형이 주로 이용되고 있다. 현재까지 고시된 하천유지유량은 대부분 기준갈수량 또는 평균갈수량이며 몇몇 지점이 하천생태계 및 하천수질보전을 위한 필요유량으로 고시된 바 있다. 본 연구에서는 국내 하천수질예측에 많이 이용하고 있는 QUAL2E 모형의 단점을 수정, 보완하고 보다 사용자가 쉽게 사용할 수 있도록 개발된 QUAL2K 모형을 이용하여 용담댐 하류의 하천수질보전을 위한 필요유량을 산정하였다. 과거에 산정된 하천수질보전을 위한 필요유량 산정치와 환경부에서 최근 제시하고 있는 금강오염총량관리 기본계획과의 비교를 통해 산정한 결과의 타당성을 분석해 보았으며 장래 발생할 수 있는 여러 가지 상황들을 시나리오로 구축하여 분석함으로써 보다 합리적인 결과를 도출하도록 노력하였다. 하천수질보전을 위한 필요유량 산정 시 하나의 경우에 대한 분석보다는 발생할 수 있는 여러 상황을 시나리오로 분석함으로써 의사결정자나 일반대중에게 보다 다양한 정책 방향성과 유량에 따른 하천수질변화에 대한 다양한 정보를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.117-128
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• 2011

In this study, a model is developed to predict emission factors, which aims to objectively evaluate the impact of transport projects on air quality. Two emission prediction models for the years of 2015 and 2030 are developed using the historical trends in vehicle aging and vehicle deterioration factors. The analysis results show that the emission factors under the operating speed of 30km/h for the year 2030 are 5~37% and 2~83% less than those used in the current studies for passenger cars and bus/trucks, respectively. The statistically validated experiment results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model to evaluation of the impact of transport policies on air quality.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.817-826
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• 2002

Many researchers have been tried to forecast the future as analyzing data characteristics and the forecasting methodology may be divided into two cases of deterministic and stochastic techniques. However, the understanding data characteristics may be very important for model construction and forecasting. In the sense of this view, recently, the deterministic method known as nonlinear dynamics has been studied in many fields. This study uses the geometrical methodology suggested by Poincare for analyzing nonlinear dynamic systems and we apply the methodology to understand the characteristics of known systems and hydrologic data, and determines the possibility of forecasting according to the data characteristics. Say, we try to understand the data characteristics as constructing Poincare map by using Poincare section and could conjecture that the data sets are linear or nonlinear and an appropriate model.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.425-431
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• 2008

The future cargo transportation and traffic volume on container in Gwangyang port was forecasted by using univariate time series models in this research. And the container ship traffic was produced. The constructed models all were most adapted to Winters' additive models with a trend and seasonal change. The cargo transportation on container in Gwangyang port was estimated each about 2,756 thousand TEU and 4,470 thousand TEU in 2011 and 2015 by increasing each 7.4%, 16.2% compared with 2007. The volume per ship on container was estimated each about 675TEU and 801TEU in 2011 and 2015 by increasing each 30.3%, 54.6% compared with 2007. Also, traffic volume on container incoming in Gwangyang Port was prospected each about 4,078ships and 5,921ships in 2011 and 2015.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.4C
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• pp.229-238
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• 2006

Observed field behaviors are frequently different from the behaviors predicted in the design state due to several uncertainties involved in soil properties, numerical modeling, and error of measuring system even though a sophisticated numerical analysis technique is applied to solve the consolidation behavior of drainage-installed soft deposits. In this study, genetic algorithms are applied to back-analyze the soil properties using the observed behavior of soft clay deposit composed of multi layers that shows complex consolidation characteristics. Utilizing the program, one might be able to appropriately predict the subsequent consolidation behavior from the measured data in an early stage of consolidation of multi layered soft deposits. Example analyses for drainage-installed multi-layered soft deposits are performed to examine the applicability of proposed back-analysis method.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.103-112
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• 2012

This research introduces a trip generation model reflecting time-series effects derived from a panel analysis with the data collected from the national household trip surveys conducted in 1996, 2002 and 2006. The existing methods are unable to reflect time-series effects from the change of socioeconomic conditions because the parameters applied to the model were basically from the base year of study - the parameter values were unchanged. This study proposes a new trip generation model developed through a panel analysis performed with the data collected from the last three national household trip surveys. From the results, it was found that the number of school trips increases and that the number of shopping trips decreases as time passes. The results showed that there are time-series effects affecting in trip generation.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.1465-1472
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• 2011

Water quality surveys has been performed to establish water quality improvement strategy for the lake Pyeungtaek, and WASP model was used to simulate to identify the effect of water quality improvement according to the reduction of pollutant loadings for the upstream watersheds. Assuming that present loadings was continued up to the future, the water quality of the lake was found to be getting worse resulting from the increase of pollutants due to the planned future development. In this study, we made various scenarios to predict the future water quality, scenario 6 made a large contribution to improve the lake water quality compared to others. Even the scenario 6, COD concentration of year 2016 in the lake was examined to be under the 4th rate of water quality level for the lake (COD less than 8 mg/L), similar to year 2021. Even though additional reduction of loadings for the scenario 6 was made, the water quality in lake was a little improvement, and was though to be inappropriate action in the economic point of view.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.623-634
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• 2000

This study describes results of numerical simulations on river flow response due to global warming. Forecasts of changes in climatic conditions are required to estimate the hydrologic effects of increasing trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere. However, reliable forecasts of regional climate change are unavailable. In there absence, various approaches to the development of scenarios of future climatic conditions are used. The approach in this study is to prescribe climatic changes for a river basin in a simplified manner. As a rule, such scenarios specify air temperature increases from $0^{\circ}C\;to\;4.0^{\circ}C$ and precipitation change (increase or decrease) in the range of 0% to 15%. On the basis of acceptable supposition of warming scenarios. future daily streamflow is simulated using rainfall-runoff model in the Andong Dam basin. The numerical experiments have quantitatively revealed the change of discharge at 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2050 for each warming scenarios and compared it with the results for a non-warmmg scenano.cenano.

• Water for future
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.31-43
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• 2002

This study describes results of numerical simulations on river flow response due to global warming. Forecasts of changes in climatic conditions are required to estimate the hydrologic effects of increasing trace gas concentratrions in the atmosphere. However, reliable forecasts of regional climate change are unavailable. In there absense various approaches to the development of scenarios of furture climatic conditions are used. The approach in this study is to prescribe climatic changes for a river basin in a simplified manner. As a rule, such scenarios apecify air temperature increases from $0^{\circ}C$ to $4.0^{\circ}C$ and precipitation change (increase or decrease) in the range of 0% to 15%. On the basis of acceptable supposition of warming scenarios, furute daily stream flow is simulated using rainfall-runoff model in the Andong Dam basin. The numerical experiments have quantitatively revealed the change of discharge at 2010, 2020, 2030 and 1050 for each warming scenarios and compared it with the results for a non-worming scenario.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.21-30
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• 2012

This paper analyzes the map of soil contamination in years of 2009 by actual survey in Incheon. South-east national industrial complex and the US Army base in Bu-Pyung are turned out to be high polluted area because spilling of oil storage facilities, vehicle and glass industries. So, the soil contamination in Incheon Metropolitan area will be getting more attention. To solve this problem, the soil contamination has been predicted by using the visual Sufer and visual Modflow which are analysis program in geotechnique and water flow. The result of analysis is that F and TPH will be retarded after 5 years. However, the contamination diffusion will be increased if there is no proper management of soil contamination.