• Title/Summary/Keyword: 임계지수

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Radar-based rainfall prediction using generative adversarial network (적대적 생성 신경망을 이용한 레이더 기반 초단시간 강우예측)

  • Yoon, Seongsim;Shin, Hongjoon;Heo, Jae-Yeong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.8
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    • pp.471-484
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    • 2023
  • Deep learning models based on generative adversarial neural networks are specialized in generating new information based on learned information. The deep generative models (DGMR) model developed by Google DeepMind is an generative adversarial neural network model that generates predictive radar images by learning complex patterns and relationships in large-scale radar image data. In this study, the DGMR model was trained using radar rainfall observation data from the Ministry of Environment, and rainfall prediction was performed using an generative adversarial neural network for a heavy rainfall case in August 2021, and the accuracy was compared with existing prediction techniques. The DGMR generally resembled the observed rainfall in terms of rainfall distribution in the first 60 minutes, but tended to predict a continuous development of rainfall in cases where strong rainfall occurred over the entire area. Statistical evaluation also showed that the DGMR method is an effective rainfall prediction method compared to other methods, with a critical success index of 0.57 to 0.79 and a mean absolute error of 0.57 to 1.36 mm in 1 hour advance prediction. However, the lack of diversity in the generated results sometimes reduces the prediction accuracy, so it is necessary to improve the diversity and to supplement it with rainfall data predicted by a physics-based numerical forecast model to improve the accuracy of the forecast for more than 2 hours in advance.

An Evaluation of the Impact of Ammonium Nitrate Explosion Occurred in Beirut Port (베이루트항에서 발생한 질산암모늄 폭발에 의한 영향 평가)

  • Yong-Kyun Yoon
    • Explosives and Blasting
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2023
  • On August 4, 2020, 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate stored in a storage warehouse at the Port of Beirut exploded. This explosion is said to be the largest ammonium nitrate explosion ever. By applying the TNT equivalency method, TNT equivalent amount corresponding to the explosion energy of 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate was calculated, and it is found to be 856 tons. Overpressure and impulse were calculated in a range up to 3600 m from the blast using the Kingery-Bulmash explosion parameter calculator tool. As the distance from the explosion center increases, the overpressure and impulse decrease exponentially, but the overpressure decreases more significantly, showing that overpressure is more affected by distance than the impact. As a result of applying the damage criteria to evaluate the effects of overpressure and impulse on the structure, the critical distances at which partial collapse, major damage, and minor damage to the structure occur are found to be approximately 500, 800, and 2200 m from the center of the explosion, respectively. The probit function was applied to evaluate the probability of damage to structures and human body. The points where the probability of collapse, major damage, minor damage, and breakage of window-panes to structures are greater than 50% are found to be approximately 500, 810, 2200, and 3200 m, respectively. For people within 200 m from the center of the explosion, the probability of death due to lung damage is more than 99%, and the 50% probability of eardrum rupture is approximately 300 m. The points with a 100% probability of death due to skull rupture and whole body impact due to whole body displacement are evaluated to be 300 and 100 m, respectively.

Assessment of Pollen Allergenicity Index Under Climate Change in the Seoul Children's Grand Park: Present, and Future (기후변화에 따른 도시 녹지 꽃가루 알레르기 지수 변화 분석 - 서울어린이대공원을 대상으로 -)

  • Yerin Hwang;Sukyoung Kim;Jaeyeon Choi;Chan Park
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.99-115
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    • 2024
  • A worldwide effort is underway to utilize urban parks as a means ofresponding to climate change, providing various benefits to citizens. However, it also has several negative effects, such as an increase in pollen allergies. These negative impacts have been defined as ecosystem disservices and discussed globally, although the discussion remains insufficient domestically. In particular, pollen allergies have been discussed as a typical ecosystem disservice, with negative impacts such as an increase in symptoms attributed to higher pollen production or the growth of trees with higher antigenicity. The WHO reports that approximately 30% of the world's population suffers from pollen allergies. Many recent studies indicate that the harm induced by pollen allergies is expected to increase due to changes in the climate and thermal environment. In this context, we aim to diagnose the allergenicity of current urban parks and assess changes according to climate change scenarios. To achieve this goal, we assess pollen allergenicity in Seoul Children's Grand Park using the Urban Green Space Allergenicity Index (IUGZA) as the first step towards discussing ecosystem disservices. We found that the IUGZA value in the target area exceeds the threshold suggested in previous research, causing harm due to pollen allergies and is expected to increase according to climate change scenarios. We conclude that this result indicates that social harm from pollen allergies in urban parks may increase due to climate change. Therefore, we emphasize the necessity of discussing ecosystem disservices in the composition of urban parks.

Steady Shear Flow and Dynamic Viscoelastic Properties of Semi-Solid Food Materials (반고형 식품류의 정상유동특성 및 동적 점탄성)

  • 송기원;장갑식
    • The Korean Journal of Rheology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 1999
  • Using a Rheometrics Fluids Spectrometer(RFS II), the steady shear flow and the small-amplitude dynamic viscoelastic properties of three kinds of semi-solid food materials(mayonnaise, tomato ketchup, and wasabi) have been measured over a wide range of shear rates and angular frequencies. The shear rate dependence of steady flow behavior and the angular frequency dependence of dynamic viscoelastic behavior were reported from the experimentally measured data. In addition, some viscoplastic flow models with a yield stress term were employed to make a quantitative evaluation of the steady flow behavior, and the applicability of these models was also examined in detail. Furthermore, the correlations between steady shear flow(nonlinear behavior) and dynamic viscoelastic(linear behavior)properties were discussed using the modified power-law flow equations. Main results obtained from this study can be summarized as follows : (1) Semi-solid food materials are regarded as viscoplastic fluids having a finite magnitude of yield stress, and their flow behavior shows shear-thinning characteristics, exhibiting a decrease in steady flow viscosity with increasing shear rate. (2) The Herschel-Bulkley, Mizrahi-Berk, and Heinz-Casson models are all applicable to describe the steady flow behavior of semi-solid food materials. Among these models, the Heinz-Casson model has the best validity. (3) Semi-solid food materials show a stronger shear-thinning behavior at shear rate region higher than a critical shear rate where a more progressive structure breakdown takes place. (4) Both the storage and loss moduli are increased with increasing angular frequency, but they have a slight dependence on angular frequency. The elastic behavior is dominant to the viscous behavior over a wide range of angular frequencies. (5) All of the steady flow, dynamic, and complex viscosities are well satisfied with the power-law model behavior. The relationships between steady shear flow and dynamic viscoelastic properties can well be described by the modified forms of the power-law flow equations.

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Enhancing Predictive Accuracy of Collaborative Filtering Algorithms using the Network Analysis of Trust Relationship among Users (사용자 간 신뢰관계 네트워크 분석을 활용한 협업 필터링 알고리즘의 예측 정확도 개선)

  • Choi, Seulbi;Kwahk, Kee-Young;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.113-127
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    • 2016
  • Among the techniques for recommendation, collaborative filtering (CF) is commonly recognized to be the most effective for implementing recommender systems. Until now, CF has been popularly studied and adopted in both academic and real-world applications. The basic idea of CF is to create recommendation results by finding correlations between users of a recommendation system. CF system compares users based on how similar they are, and recommend products to users by using other like-minded people's results of evaluation for each product. Thus, it is very important to compute evaluation similarities among users in CF because the recommendation quality depends on it. Typical CF uses user's explicit numeric ratings of items (i.e. quantitative information) when computing the similarities among users in CF. In other words, user's numeric ratings have been a sole source of user preference information in traditional CF. However, user ratings are unable to fully reflect user's actual preferences from time to time. According to several studies, users may more actively accommodate recommendation of reliable others when purchasing goods. Thus, trust relationship can be regarded as the informative source for identifying user's preference with accuracy. Under this background, we propose a new hybrid recommender system that fuses CF and social network analysis (SNA). The proposed system adopts the recommendation algorithm that additionally reflect the result analyzed by SNA. In detail, our proposed system is based on conventional memory-based CF, but it is designed to use both user's numeric ratings and trust relationship information between users when calculating user similarities. For this, our system creates and uses not only user-item rating matrix, but also user-to-user trust network. As the methods for calculating user similarity between users, we proposed two alternatives - one is algorithm calculating the degree of similarity between users by utilizing in-degree and out-degree centrality, which are the indices representing the central location in the social network. We named these approaches as 'Trust CF - All' and 'Trust CF - Conditional'. The other alternative is the algorithm reflecting a neighbor's score higher when a target user trusts the neighbor directly or indirectly. The direct or indirect trust relationship can be identified by searching trust network of users. In this study, we call this approach 'Trust CF - Search'. To validate the applicability of the proposed system, we used experimental data provided by LibRec that crawled from the entire FilmTrust website. It consists of ratings of movies and trust relationship network indicating who to trust between users. The experimental system was implemented using Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and UCINET 6. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed system, we compared the performance of our proposed method with one of conventional CF system. The performances of recommender system were evaluated by using average MAE (mean absolute error). The analysis results confirmed that in case of applying without conditions the in-degree centrality index of trusted network of users(i.e. Trust CF - All), the accuracy (MAE = 0.565134) was lower than conventional CF (MAE = 0.564966). And, in case of applying the in-degree centrality index only to the users with the out-degree centrality above a certain threshold value(i.e. Trust CF - Conditional), the proposed system improved the accuracy a little (MAE = 0.564909) compared to traditional CF. However, the algorithm searching based on the trusted network of users (i.e. Trust CF - Search) was found to show the best performance (MAE = 0.564846). And the result from paired samples t-test presented that Trust CF - Search outperformed conventional CF with 10% statistical significance level. Our study sheds a light on the application of user's trust relationship network information for facilitating electronic commerce by recommending proper items to users.

Rheological Properties of Chitosan Manufactured from the Pens of Domestic (Todarodes pacificus) and Foreign (Ommastrephes bartrami) Squid (연안산 및 남미산 오징어 연골로부터 제조한 Chitosan의 레올로지 특성)

  • KIM Sang-Moo;PARK Seong-Min;CHOI Hyeon-Mee;LEE Keun-Tai
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.859-867
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    • 1997
  • In order to utilize the processing wastes of squid, chitosans were manufactured from the pens of domestic squid, Todarbdes pacificus and foreign squid, Ommastrephes bartrami and then, its rheological properties were studied. The amounts of nitrogen and minerals of the domestic squid pens were $11.4\%\;and\;0.1\%$ respectively, whereas those of its chitosan were $7.5\%\;and\;0.2\%$. In case of foreign squid pen and chitosan, the amounts of nitrogen and minerals were $12.1\%,\;0.8\%\;and\;7.8\%,\;0.2\%$ respectively. Intrinsic viscosity $([\eta]) $ of domestic and foreign squid pen chitosans were decreased with increasing pH from 3.4 to 5.4 which might be due to the reduced repulsion in inter- of intra- chitosan molecules. Intrinsic viscosity of the domestic and foreign squid pen chitosans were decreased with increasing NaCl concentration thus indicated that the domestic and foreign squid pen chitosans were polyelectrolyte molecules and stiffness of squid pen thitosans were 0.11 similar to that of k-carrageenan. Flow type of squid pen chitosan solutions were pseudoplastic fluids without yield stress by the viscosity measurement. But the squid pen chitosan solutions showed newtonian fluid up to $0.15\~0.24\%$ concentration for domestic and $0.21\~0.24\%$ concentration for foreign at $10\~50\%$. Concentration dependence of consistency index in infinitive dilute domain (Kc) were higher in the dilute domain than entangled domain. Activation energies (Ea) of the squid pen chitosans were 3.7, 6.3, 3.6, 4.0 and 4.1 Kcal/g moi for domestic and 3.2, 3.1, 3.4, 3.8 and 3.6 Kcal/g mol for foreign at 0.1, 0.15, 0.25, 0.35 and $0.5\%$, respectively.

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Development of a Distribution Prediction Model by Evaluating Environmental Suitability of the Aconitum austrokoreense Koidz. Habitat (세뿔투구꽃의 서식지 환경 적합성 평가를 통한 분포 예측 모형 개발)

  • Cho, Seon-Hee;Lee, Kye-Han
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.110 no.4
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    • pp.504-515
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    • 2021
  • To examine the relationship between environmental factors influencing the habitat of Aconitum austrokoreense Koidz., this study employed the MexEnt model to evaluate 21 environmental factors. Fourteen environmental factors having an AUC of at least 0.6 were found to be the age of stand, growing stock, altitude, topography, topographic wetness index, solar radiation, soil texture, mean temperature in January, mean temperature in April, mean annual temperature, mean rainfall in January, mean rainfall in August, and mean annual rainfall. Based on the response curves of the 14 descriptive factors, Aconitum austrokoreense Koidz. on the Baekun Mountain were deemed more suitable for sites at an altitude of 600 m or lower, and habitats were not significantly affected by the inclination angle. The preferred conditions were high stand density, sites close to valleys, and distribution in the northwestern direction. Under the five-age class system, the species were more likely to be observed for lower classes. The preferred solar radiation in this study was 1.2 MJ/m2. The species were less likely to be observed when the topographic wetness index fell below the reference value of 4.5, and were more likely observed above 7.5 (reference of threshold). Soil analysis showed that Aconitum austrokoreense Koidz. was more likely to thrive in sandy loam than clay. Suitable conditions were a mean January temperature of - 4.4℃ to -2.5℃, mean April temperature of 8.8℃-10.0℃, and mean annual temperature of 9.6℃-11.0℃. Aconitum austrokoreense Koidz. was first observed in sites with a mean annual rainfall of 1,670- 1,720 mm, and a mean August rainfall of at least 350 mm. Therefore, sites with increasing rainfall of up to 390 mm were preferred. The area of potential habitats having distributive significance of 75% or higher was 202 ha, or 1.8% of the area covered in this study.

The Variation of Natural Population of Pinus densiflora S. et Z. in Korea (V) -Characteristics of Needle and Wood of Injye, Jeongsun, Samchuk Populations- (소나무 천연집단(天然集團)의 변이(變異)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)(V) -인제(麟蹄), 정선(旌善), 삼척집단(三陟集團)의 침엽(針葉) 및 재질형질(材質形質)-)

  • Yim, Kyong Bin;Kwon, Ki Won;Lee, Kyong Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.9-25
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    • 1977
  • As a successive work of the variation studies of natural Pinus densiflora stands, some characteristics of individual trees of the three natural populations selected from the Kwang-won Province, the middle-east part of Korean peninsula, as shown in the location map, were investigated. And the statiscal differences between individuals within population, and between populations were analysed. Twenty trees from each population were selected for this study purpose. Doing this, those trees lagged in growth, usually showing poorer form, were eliminated. The results obtained are summarized as follows: 1. Though the average population ages had the ranage between 50 and 63, the growth of height or diameter was similar. Population No.9 is, however, considered to have better tree forms at glance. Population No.8 showed the heighest value not only in the clear-stem-length ratio. 0.53 but also in the crown-index 0.91. The higher value can be result from those trees having long lateral branches and relatively short crown height, meaning undesirable crown shape. In regard to the fine branchedness and the acuteness of branching angle, the population No.9. is considered to be a better one, whereas there was almost no difference in crown height among populations. 2. Checking the frequency distributions of the ratio of the clear-stem-height to the total height and the crown-indices, some difference between populations are considered. These might be attributed to the previous way of stand mangement which alters the density. 3. In the serration density, the average number of 54 per 1cm needle length, the significant differences exist between individual trees within population but not between populations. A few trees which extremly high serration density were observed. As in serration, so tendencies were in the number of stomata row and resin duct. 4. The population 8 had the resin duct index value of 0.074 as the highest which was twice or triple of the other ones. 5. The patterns of increasing process of the average 10-year-ring-segment were not similar till the 30 years of age, but beyond this, the tendency lines were aggregated. 6. Regading the average summer wood ratio, no diffrence between populations, but in the ranges, i.e. 23 to 30 in population No.8. and 16 to 36 in population No.9., with regad to the specific gravity of wood, there were hardly observed any difference between populations even in the ranges values. As the increase of tree ages, the increase of specific gravity was followed but the increasing patterns were not similar between populations. 7. No significant differences between populations in the average tracheid length and the range were detected. However, the length was increased according to the age increase. The increasing pattern was same between populations.

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Mechanical Anisotropy of Pocheon Granite under Uniaxial Compression (일축압축하에서 포천화강암의 역학적 이방성)

  • Park Deok-Won
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.337-348
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    • 2005
  • Jurassic granite from Pocheon area were tested to investigate the effect of microcracks on mechanical properties of the granite. Three oriented core specimens were used for uniaxial compressive tests and each core specimen are perpendicular to the axes'R'(rift plane),'c'(grain plane) and'H'(hardway plane), respectively Among vacious elastic constants, the variation of Poisson's ratio as function of the directions was examined. From the related chart between ratio of failure strength and Poisson's ratio, H-specimen shows the highest range in Poisson's ratio and Poisson's ratio decreases in the order of C-specimen and R-specimen. The curve pattern is nearly linear in stage $I\simIII$ but the slope increases abruptly in stage H-3. As shown in the related chart, diverging point of a curve is formed when ratio of failure strength is $0.92\sim0.96$ Stage IV -3 is out of elastic region. The behaviour of rock in the four fracturing stages was analyzed in term of the stress-volumetric strain me. From the stress increment-volumetric strain equations governing the behaviour of rock, characteristic material constants, a, n, Q, m and $\varepsilon_v^{mcf}$, were determined. Among these, inherent microcrack porosity$(a, 10^{-3})$ and compaction exponent(n) in the microcrack closure region(stage I ) show an order of $a^R(3.82)>a^G(3.38)>a^H(2.32)\;and\;n^R(3.69)>n^G(2.79)>n^H(1.99)4, respectively. Especially, critical volumetric microcrack strain($\varepsilon_v^{mcf}$) in the stage W is highest in the H-specimen, normal to the hardway plane. These results indicate a strong correlation between two major sets of microcracks and mechanical properties such as Poisson's ratio and material constants. Correlation of strength anisotropy with microcrack orientation can have important application in rock fracture studies.

Improvement and Validation of Convective Rainfall Rate Retrieved from Visible and Infrared Image Bands of the COMS Satellite (COMS 위성의 가시 및 적외 영상 채널로부터 복원된 대류운의 강우강도 향상과 검증)

  • Moon, Yun Seob;Lee, Kangyeol
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.37 no.7
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    • pp.420-433
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to improve the calibration matrixes of 2-D and 3-D convective rainfall rates (CRR) using the brightness temperature of the infrared $10.8{\mu}m$ channel (IR), the difference of brightness temperatures between infrared $10.8{\mu}m$ and vapor $6.7{\mu}m$ channels (IR-WV), and the normalized reflectance of the visible channel (VIS) from the COMS satellite and rainfall rate from the weather radar for the period of 75 rainy days from April 22, 2011 to October 22, 2011 in Korea. Especially, the rainfall rate data of the weather radar are used to validate the new 2-D and 3-DCRR calibration matrixes suitable for the Korean peninsula for the period of 24 rainy days in 2011. The 2D and 3D calibration matrixes provide the basic and maximum CRR values ($mm\;h^{-1}$) by multiplying the rain probability matrix, which is calculated by using the number of rainy and no-rainy pixels with associated 2-D (IR, IR-WV) and 3-D (IR, IR-WV, VIS) matrixes, by the mean and maximum rainfall rate matrixes, respectively, which is calculated by dividing the accumulated rainfall rate by the number of rainy pixels and by the product of the maximum rain rate for the calibration period by the number of rain occurrences. Finally, new 2-D and 3-D CRR calibration matrixes are obtained experimentally from the regression analysis of both basic and maximum rainfall rate matrixes. As a result, an area of rainfall rate more than 10 mm/h is magnified in the new ones as well as CRR is shown in lower class ranges in matrixes between IR brightness temperature and IR-WV brightness temperature difference than the existing ones. Accuracy and categorical statistics are computed for the data of CRR events occurred during the given period. The mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean squire error (RMSE) in new 2-D and 3-D CRR calibrations led to smaller than in the existing ones, where false alarm ratio had decreased, probability of detection had increased a bit, and critical success index scores had improved. To take into account the strong rainfall rate in the weather events such as thunderstorms and typhoon, a moisture correction factor is corrected. This factor is defined as the product of the total precipitable waterby the relative humidity (PW RH), a mean value between surface and 500 hPa level, obtained from a numerical model or the COMS retrieval data. In this study, when the IR cloud top brightness temperature is lower than 210 K and the relative humidity is greater than 40%, the moisture correction factor is empirically scaled from 1.0 to 2.0 basing on PW RH values. Consequently, in applying to this factor in new 2D and 2D CRR calibrations, the ME, MAE, and RMSE are smaller than the new ones.