• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.57-66
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• 1999

We believe that science experiments in a laboratory are essential for science education. Scientific experiments begin with situations set by selecting and locating tools and reagents. and by proper experimental behavior, and thereafter situations are changed by natural laws and intermediate experimental behavior. While scientists and students do experiments, they build a cognitive model internally, do causal reasoning on the model to derive system behavior, and then learn scientific truth. We suggest not only a representation method for a 2-dimentional model and for ontological entities necessary in causal reasoning, but also an inferencing method to derive behavior. Chemistry experiments are chosen for the implementation. For the ontological entities, we consider experimental tools, reagents and their heirarchical structures, physics and chemistry natural laws, and functional abstraction knowledge. In order to show the usefulness of our methods, we have developed a program, called ACUArtificial Chemistry Laboratory), which provides an experiment environment where students can do non-predetermined experiments, and shows experiment려 system behavior similar to what happens in the same situation in a real world and descriptions about why it happens.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.117-140
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• 1991

The purpose of this paper is primarily to introduce a nonparametric statistical tool developed by Baek and Brock to detect a unidirectional causal ordering between two economic variables and apply it to interesting macroeconomic relationships among money, production and prices. It can be applied to any other causal structure, for instance, defense spending and economic performance, stock market index and market interest rates etc. A key building block of the test for nonlinear Granger causality used in this paper is the correlation. The main emphasis is put on nonlinear causal structure rather than a linear one because the conventional F-test provides high power against the linear causal relationship. Based on asymptotic normality of our test statistic, the nonlinear causality test is finally derived. Size of the test is reported for some parameters. When it is applied to a money, production and prices model, some evidences of nonlinear causality are found by the corrected size of the test. For instance, nonlinear causal relationships between production and prices are demonstrated in both directions, however, these results were ignored by the conventional F-test. A similar results between money and prices are obtained at high lag variables.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.95-95
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• 2016

한반도 중부지방은 2014년과 2015년에 연이은 강수량 부족으로 많은 지역에서 가뭄 현상이 나타났다. 특히, 한반도는 여름철에 강수가 집중되는 몬순기후대에 속하기 때문에 여름철 강수량은 생활용수나 농업용수 확보 등 이수 측면에서 매우 중요하다 할 수 있다. 이러한, 한반도(남한)의 중부지역 가뭄을 유발하는 강수량의 부족 현상은 대략 5-10년(평균 7-8년) 주기로 반복된다. 그리고 이러한 10여년 주기 변동성과 더불어 예외적인 경우가 발생하고 매번 그 심도도 변화한다. 이러한 주기성을 우연이라 보기는 어려울 것이나 예외적인 경우나 심도를 가늠할 수 없다는 점(인과관계가 불분명하다는 점)에서 확정론적 현상이라 단정하기도 어려운 현실이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 이러한 주기적 가뭄을 야기하는 강수량 변동의 원인을 지구물리학적 측면에서 추론해 보고자 한다. 가뭄은 인위적인 조건에 의해서도 발생하고 인과관계에 따른 정의도 다양하지만, 본 연구에서는 자연 상태에서 강수량의 부족에 의한 가뭄 조건만을 고려하였다. 강수과정은 지구의 물순환 운동에 의해 야기되고 지구의 물순환 운동은 지구의 역학적 운동 및 상호작용 관계에 의해 발생한다고 알려져 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는, 지구물리 과정의 일부로 강수과정을 유발하는 지표인자로 SST와 같은 기후 인자에 대해 변동 주기의 상관성을 범지구적인 시공간 규모에서 검토하였다.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.63-70
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• 1999

Reconstruction of collision accidents is to analyze the cause of accidents and collision behavior using available information from vehicle accident circumstances. This paper introduces a collision reconstruction system which is developed to be applicable to traffic accident reconstruction. Our System combines both quantitative and qualitative collision models so as to compensate for weaknesses in each with strengths of each other. I It provides accurate predictions and causal explanations of the collision behavior. During r reverse analysis of collision. qualitative simulation is used to verify a hypothesis and to detect any conflict in early stage of reconstruction. It is implemented and applied to real car-to-car collision accidents. The test results verify the reliabilities of our techniques.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.103-114
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• 1998

본 논문은 화력발전소 적용을 위한 경보처리 기반 고장진단 전문가 시스템(APDX(Alarm Processing and Diagnosis Expert System)개발에 관하여 논의한다. 본 연구에서 제시된 경보처리 알고리즘은 근본적으로는 경보 인과관계 트리를 사용하고 있으나 최종 원인 경보선택에 있어서는 경보 발생시간과 경보 우선순위 Meta-Rul를 활용한다. 경보처리 모듈에서 처리된 원인경보를 근거로 하여 본 원인경보와 관련된 고장부위를 진단하게 된다. 진단모듈에서는 경보에 관련된 센서들과 고장들 사이의 관계를 정상적으로 모델링하고 센서들의 트랜드를 정성적 해석기로 분석하여 증가, 정상, 감소의 세가지 상태에 대한 신뢰도를 출력한다. 또한 각 경보로부터 고장이 예상되는 고장타입을 센서 천이도로 모델링하여 진단에 활용된다. 최종적으로 추론모듈에서 퍼지(Fuzzy) 추론 알고리즘을 이용하여 모델된 고장 타입과 계산된 고장과의 매칭과정을 통하여 진단을 수행하게 되며, 계산 창 (Window)를 변경하면서 고장을 재 확인하게 된다.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.37 no.10
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• pp.736-744
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• 2010

Log data collected from mobile devices contain diverse and meaningful personal information. However, it is not easy to implement a context-aware mobile agent using this personal information due to the inherent limitation in mobile platform such as memory capacity, computation power and its difficulty of analysis of the data. We propose a method of selective inference for modular Bayesian Network for context-aware mobile agent with effectiveness and reliability. Each BN module performs inference only when it can change the result by comparing to the history module which contains evidences and posterior probability, and gets results effectively using a method of influence score of the modules. We adopt memory decay theory and virtual linking method for the evaluation of the reliability and conservation of casual relationship between BN modules, respectively. Finally, we confirm the usefulness of the proposed method by several experiments on mobile phones.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.103-116
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• 2017

In this paper, we present the design and implementation of a large-scale qualitative spatial reasoner, which can derive new qualitative spatial knowledge representing both topological and directional relationships between two arbitrary spatial objects in efficient way using Aparch Spark SQL. Apache Spark SQL is well known as a distributed parallel programming environment which provides both efficient join operations and query processing functions over a variety of data in Hadoop cluster computer systems. In our spatial reasoner, the overall reasoning process is divided into 6 jobs such as knowledge encoding, inverse reasoning, equal reasoning, transitive reasoning, relation refining, knowledge decoding, and then the execution order over the reasoning jobs is determined in consideration of both logical causal relationships and computational efficiency. The knowledge encoding job reduces the size of knowledge base to reason over by transforming the input knowledge of XML/RDF form into one of more precise form. Repeat of the transitive reasoning job and the relation refining job usually consumes most of computational time and storage for the overall reasoning process. In order to improve the jobs, our reasoner finds out the minimal disjunctive relations for qualitative spatial reasoning, and then, based upon them, it not only reduces the composition table to be used for the transitive reasoning job, but also optimizes the relation refining job. Through experiments using a large-scale benchmarking spatial knowledge base, the proposed reasoner showed high performance and scalability.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.599-610
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to analyze mechanistic reasoning in Fabre's inquires and to develop mechanistic reasoning model. To analyze the order of the process elements in mechanistic reasoning, 30 chapters were selected in book. Inquiries were analyzed through a framework which is based on Russ et al. (2008). The nine process elements of mechanistic reasoning that was presented in Fabre's inquires were as follows: Describing the Target Phenomenon, Identifying prior Knowledge, Identifying Properties of Objects, Identifying Setup Conditions, Identifying Activities, Conjecturing Entities, Identifying Properties of Entities, Identifying Entities, and Organization of Entities. The order of process elements of mechanistic reasoning was affected by inquiry's subject, types of question, prior knowledge and situation. Three mechanistic reasoning models based on the process elements of mechanistic reasoning were developed: Mechanistic reasoning model for Identifying Entities(MIE), Mechanistic reasoning model for Identifying Activities(MIA), and Mechanistic reasoning model for Identifying Properties of entities (MIP). Science teacher can help students to use the questions of not only "why" but also "How", "If", "What", when students identify entities or generate hypotheses. Also science teacher should be required to understand mechanistic reasoning to give students opportunities to generate diverse hypotheses. If students can't conjecture entities easily, MIA and MIP would be helpful for students.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.367-378
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to investigate the features of science language in Earth science textbooks and Earth science research articles. We examined two Earth science textbooks and two Earth science articles using the taxonomy of scientific words, the text structure analysis of explanations, the analysis of conjunctive relations and reasoning, and the function of conjunction. The results showed that school science language revealed in Earth science textbooks had high proportion of naming words and the text structures in which definition/exemplification structure and description structure were dominant. Also, internal relations that showed additional arrangement rather than logical inference, were predominant in Earth science textbooks. However, scientists' science language revealed in the Earth science articles had more proportion of process words and concept words than the Earth science textbooks and the schematic structure of explanation texts, such as orientation - implication sequence - conclusion. In addition, the text structures in each sentences of implication -sequence showed cause/effect or problem-solving after description structures. Also each sentences expressed causal or abductive reasoning through the internal relations using verbs or adverbial inflection. It is necessary that we bridge the gap between the two languages for students' authentic use of science language. For the bridging, we propose "interlanguage", which mediates between school science language and scientists' language.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-30
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• 2010

This paper tested the lead-lag relationship as well as the symmetric and asymmetric volatility spillover effects between international currency futures markets and cash markets. We use five kinds of currency spot and futures markets such as British pound, Australian and Canadian dollar, Brasilian Real and won/dollar spot and futures markets. daily closing prices covering from September 15, 2003 to July 30, 2009. For this purpose we employed dynamic time series models such as the Granger causality based on VAR and time-varying MA(1)-GJR-GARCH(1, 1)-M. The main empirical results are as follows; First, according to Granger causality test, we find that the bilateral lead-lag relationship between the five countries' currency spot and futures market. The price discover effect from currency futures markets to spot market is relatively stronger than that from currency spot to futures markets. Second, based on the time varying GARCH model, we find that there is a bilateral conditional mean spillover effects between the five currency spot and futures markets. Third, we also find that there is a bilateral asymmetric volatility spillover effects between British pound, Canadian dollar, Brasilian Real and won/dollar spot and futures market. However there is a unilateral asymmetric volatility spillover effect from Australian dollar futures to cash market, not vice versa. From these empirical results we infer that most of currency futures markets have a much better price discovery function than currency cash market and are inefficient to the information.