• Title/Summary/Keyword: 인과관계평가

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Robustness Estimation for Power and Water Supply Network : in the Context of Failure Propagation (피해파급에 대한 고찰을 통한 전력 및 상수도 네트워크의 강건성 예측)

  • Lee, Seulbi;Park, Moonseo;Lee, Hyun-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.33-42
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    • 2018
  • In the aftermath of an earthquake, seismic-damaged infrastructure systems loss estimation is the first step for the disaster response. However, lifeline systems' ability to supply service can be volatile by external factors such as disturbances of nearby facilities, and not by own physical issue. Thus, this research develops the bayesian model for probabilistic inference on common-cause and cascading failure of seismic-damaged lifeline systems. In addition, the authors present network robustness estimation metrics in the context of failure propagation. In order to quantify the functional loss and observe the effect of the mitigation plan, power and water supply system in Daegu-Gyeongbuk in South Korea is selected as case network. The simulation results show that reduction of cascading failure probability allows withstanding the external disruptions from a perspective of the robustness improvement. This research enhances the comprehensive understanding of how a single failure propagates to whole lifeline system performance and affected region after an earthquake.

Analyzing Expected Inflation Based on a Term Structure Model: A Case of Korea (이자율모형을 이용한 우리나라 기대인플레이션의 추정 및 특징)

  • Song, Joonhyuk
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.65-101
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    • 2014
  • This paper estimates and characterizes expected inflations using an affine term structure model based on the empirical stochastic process of the interest rates in Korea. The empirical results show that the expected inflation which marked above 4% before the global financial crisis has dampened and stabilized after the crisis. Moreover, we investigate the rationality of the various expected inflation measures in terms of the unbiasedness and efficiency and find that unbiasedness is not rejected across the all measures, while the efficiency cannot be empirically warranted. Besides, we run Granger causality tests and conclude that the expected inflations compiled from the Consensus, BOK-Expert have the cross-causality with the long-run actual inflation, while the expected inflation estimated from the term structure model has the cross-causality with the short-run actual inflation. These results connote that expected inflations collected from different sources and methods have their targets and horizons and the central bank needs to watch all of them with a balanced view instead of preferring one to the other.

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Evaluating meteorological and hydrological impacts on forest fire occurrences using partial least squares-structural equation modeling: a case of Gyeonggi-do (부분최소제곱 구조방정식모형을 이용한 경기도 지역 산불 발생 요인에 대한 기상 및 수문학적 요인의 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Dongwook;Yoo, Jiyoung;Son, Ho Jun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.145-156
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    • 2021
  • Forest fires have frequently occurred around the world, and the damages are increasing. In Korea, most forest fires are initiated by human activities, but climate factors such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed have a great impact on combustion environment of forest fires. In this study, therefore, based on statistics of forest fires in Gyeonggi-do over the past five years, meteorological and hydrological factors (i.e., temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and drought) were selected in order to quantitatively investigate causal relationships with forest fire. We applied a partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM), which is suitable for analyzing causality and predicting latent variables. The overall results indicated that the measurement and structural models of the PLS-SEM were statistically significant for all evaluation criteria, and meteorological factors such as humidity, temperature, and wind speed affected by amount of -0.42, 0.23 and 0.15 of standardized path coefficient, respectively, on forest fires, whereas hydrological factor such as drought had an effect of 0.23 on forest fires. Therefore, as a practical method, the suggested model can be used for analyzing and evaluating influencing factors of forest fire and also for planning response and preparation of forest fire disasters.

Assessing E-service Quality of Digital Libraries (디지털도서관의 e-서비스품질 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Jae-Young;Lee, Eung-Bong;Kim, Jong-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.55-79
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    • 2007
  • In this study the need for new service qualify assessment scale is investigated to cope with the paradigm change in library information service and the dimension and model for e-service quality assessment applicable to a digital library are developed. In order to verify newly proposed dimension and model for e-service qualify assessment, the dimension which is developed by employing data collected from NDSL(National Digital Science Library) and its factor are analyzed and casuality analysis between independent and dependent variables is executed based on the proposed e-service qualify model We also analyze the gap between customer's ideal expectation and perception and, finally investigate what is the most important dimension among e-service quality in the digital library from the customer's point of view.

Analysis of occurred flow change on dry section in Anyangcheon (소하천 유역에서의 강우 오염부하량 강우-상관관계 분석)

  • Kim, Man-Sik;Lee, Dong-Ryul;Kim, Young-Chul
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.963-967
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    • 2006
  • 어떤 강우사상에 대해서 특정유역으로부터의 오염물질 유출특성은 첨두농도, 산술 평균농도, 첨두 오염물질 부하량, 평균 오염물질 부하량 또는 총 유출 부하량 등으로 나타낼 수 있다(이재수 등, 2001). 그러나, 대부분의 경우 강우시 발생하는 총 부하량이 개개의 농도 또는 첨두 부하량보다 더욱 중요하다. 그 이유는 유출사상이 비교적 짧고, 강우 유출수가 유입되는 수체, 특히 저수지나 댐 내에서는 어느 정도의 혼합 현상이 수반되므로 저수지내의 오염물질 농도는 강우로 인한 유출수(저수지로 유입되는)내 개개의 농도변화보다는 결국 총 부하량의 반응이기 때문이다. 특히, 저수지나 호수에서 질소와 인과 같은 영양염류에 대해서 총 부하량은 가장 중요한 수질영향 및 결정 변수일 수밖에 없다. 이와 같은 이유로 강우사상에 대한 평균농도 또는 유량가중 평균농도(EMC, event mean concentration)는 비점원 오염물질의 유출을 평가하는데 가장 적절한 인자로 인식되고 있으며, 가장 널리 이용되고 있다 (EPA, 1983). 본 연구에서 소하천 유역을 대상으로 유량과 수질농도를 실측하여 대상하천에 대한 수문자료를 구축하고, 오염부하모의 모형을 통해 대상유역에서의 강우사상별 오염부하량을 모의하였는데 모형의 보정은 실측된 유량자료를 활용하였으며, 실측된 수질농도자료와 유량자료로 산정한 오염부하량 자료를 통해 검증하였다. 검증된 모형에 대하여 100개의 강우사상에 대한 무작위 모의를 수행하였고, 결과자료를 활용하여 대상하천에 대한 강우-오염부하량의 상관관계식을 도출하였다.

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Relationship between the State of Decision Making Recognition Technology for Daily Living and Activities of Daily Living(ADL) of Inpatients in Geriatric Hospital on the Patient Core Card (환자평가표에 의한 요양병원 입원 노인들의 일상생활사 의사결정 인식기술 상태와 일상생활수행능력 간의 관계)

  • Lim, Jung-Do;Lee, Sung-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.328-336
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    • 2014
  • This work has performed to find what activities of daily living are required for the intensive interests when inpatient elderly more than 3 months has been supported and convalescent care, where the inpatient elderly were judged by the inpatient assessment report in the time of December, 2013. According to the estimation with logistic function of the relationship between the state of decision making recognition technology and the Activities of Daily Living(ADL), the intensive cares for the elderly are required in the parameters of 'Having meal' and 'transferring sitting' when they are severed and convalescently cared as the degree of functional independence for ADL are severly proceeded. In addition, the senescence and disease the activities except 'Having meal' and 'transferring sitting' seem to be influenced by the decline of body function more than the state of decision making recognition technology for daily living.

Exploratory Study on the Effects of City characteristics on City Brand Personality and City Evaluation (도시특성평가가 도시브랜드개성과 도시태도에 미치는 영향에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Yoo, Changjo;Hwang, Tae Gyu;Lee, Sang Hyun
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.31-57
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the antecedents of city brand personality and those effects on city brand personality and attitude toward city. This study attempts to confirm dimensions of city characteristics and city brand personality, and analyze the structural relationships among the city characteristics, city brand personality and attitude toward city. The result showed that various characteristics of city (culture and historic characteristics, life stability, facility convenience, economic factors, the image of city appearance, nature friendly characteristics) influence city brand personalities. In addition, city brand personalities (vivid personality and stable personality) are positively related to attitude toward city and mediated between the characteristics of city and attitude toward city.

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Social Distance between Foreign Workers and Koreans : From Foreign Workers' Viewpoint

  • Kim, Seok-Ho;Kim, Sang-Uk;Han, Ji-Eun
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.115-140
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    • 2009
  • 이 연구는 외국인 노동자들의 한국문화에 대한 적응문제를 살펴 보기 위하여 그들이 한국인들에 대하여 가지고 있는 사회적 거리감(social distance)을 분석하고 있다. 사회적 거리감은 인종 간 상호 관계 연구에서 중요한 개념으로 다루어져 왔으며, 특히 사회적응 수준을 드러내는 효과적인 척도로 각광받아왔다. 이 연구는 한국내 외국인 노동자들의 한국인에 대한 사회적 거리감의 결정요인을 규명하려는 목적을 가지고 있다. 서울과 경기 지역에서 수집된 자료에 대한 다중회귀분석(OLS Regression)을 통하여, 이 연구는 서구 사회에서 다수 인종의 사회적 거리감을 효과적으로 설명하는 것으로 판명된 요인들이 한국의 소수 인종인 외국인노동자들에게도적용될수있는가를살펴본다. 구체적으로는 연령, 성, 교육, 종교, 인종과 같은 사회인구학적 변수들과 한국인과의 접촉정도 가사회적 거리감에 유의미한 효과가 있는지 분석된다. 둘째, 이 연구는 외국인 노동자들의 가장 중요한 삶의 공간인 작업장에서의 경험과 관련된 변수들이 사회적 거리감에 대하여 가지는 효과를 탐구한다. 셋째, 구조방정식 모형(Structural Equation Model)의 적용을 통하여, 이 연구는 다중회귀에서 분석된 여러 설명 변수들 간의 복잡한 인과구조를 규명하고, 이들이 사회적 거리감에 미치는 영향을 직접효과, 간접효과, 전체효과로 나누어 살펴본다. 다중회귀분석 결과는 집단 간 사회적 거리감은 사회인구학적 변수들, 한국인들과의 접촉, 작업장 내 경험등 다양한 요인들의 복합적인 결과물이라는 점을 확인해 준다. 특히 분석결과는 작업장에서의 경험과 느낌이 한국 내 외국인 노동자들의 한국인들에 대한사회적거리감형성에결정적이라는사실을보여주는반면, 기존연구에서 효과적인 것으로 판명된 전통적 요인들은 영향력이 미미하다는 점을 말해준다. 한편, 구조방정식 모형을 적용한 분석결과는 한국인 친구들과의 접촉과 이해하기 쉽고 구체적인 노동조건이 사회적 거리감에 직접적으로 영향을 주고 있다는 것을 보여 준다. 한편 추상적인 노동조건은 사회적 거리감에 간접적으로 영향을 미친다. 상사에 대한 평가와 직무만족은 노동조건에 의해 유의미한 영향을 받지만, 한국인 친구와의 접촉과는 관련이 없다. 간단히 말해, 상사에 대한 평가와 직무만족은 노동조건이 사회적거리감에 대하여 가지는 효과를 매개한다. 결론적으로, 구조방정식모형의 분석결과는 작업장 관련 변수들간에 복잡한 인과구조가 존재한다는 점과 작업장 내 경험이 한국인에 대한 사회적 거리감 형성에 가장 중요하다는점을 확인해 준다.

Modeling Approach for Long-Term Corporate Strategies of Construction Firms Considering Key Market Driving Factors (시장환경을 고려한 건설기업의 중장기 기업전략 평가모델 연구)

  • Park, Hee-Dae;Han, Seung-Heon;Kim, Du-Yon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.571-575
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    • 2007
  • With intensive competition due to the limited growth of the domestic construction market volume and the opening and construction boom of international construction market, construction firms register to grope strategy of enterprise dimension for improvement such as entry extension of domestic construction market order corporate strategy and international construction market. In this research, influence factors of corporate strategy are extracted and their interrelationships are presented in the domain of change of external environment with the internal and external market system, construction enterprise's internal capacity and corporate strategy, government and the internal and external market. The result of this research will be used for quantitative analysis through system dynamics simulation and basic data of model effectiveness verification through actuality domestic construction enterprise's case study, and can be used to basic data of new corporate strategy establishment because construction enterprise forecasts effect hereafter establishing corporate strategy in construction environment that change rapidly.

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Experiencing and Expression of Deaf Adolescents (농인 청소년의 감정 경험 및 표현 특성)

  • Park, Ji-Eun;Kim, Eun-Ye;Jang, Un-Jung;Cheong, E-Nae;Eum, Young-Ji;Sohn, Jin-Hun
    • Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2016
  • This study examined the difference between the deaf and hearing adolescents of experiencing emotions and the intensity levels of expressing them. Three different video clips were used to induce pleasure, anger, and sadness. While watching the clips, facial expressions of the participants were recorded. The experienced emotions were measured by a self-report method, and the third person rated participants' expressed emotions based upon the recorded facial images. Two groups (deaf and hearing) were compared if those two groups shared the same experienced emotions, and whether the ratings scored by the third person corresponded with the self-rated scores. There was no significant difference in experienced emotion and its intensity level. However, hearing adolescents showed more intensive responses of pleasure than they reported, while deaf adolescents showed less intensive expressions of happiness than they reported themselves. Thus, hearing people might not be able to detect and fully comprehend how the deaf feel in general circumstances. This further indicates that the deaf adolescents cannot get enough supports from the hearing people when they express their feelings, and consequently, have a possibility of causing misunderstandings, conflicts, or even a break in relationships.