• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.79-96
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• 2012

As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.63-83
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• 2019

Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.157-173
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• 2011

As the Internet use explodes recently, the malicious attacks and hacking for a system connected to network occur frequently. This means the fatal damage can be caused by these intrusions in the government agency, public office, and company operating various systems. For such reasons, there are growing interests and demand about the intrusion detection systems (IDS)-the security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. The intrusion detection models that have been applied in conventional IDS are generally designed by modeling the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. These kinds of intrusion detection models perform well under the normal situations. However, they show poor performance when they meet a new or unknown pattern of the network attacks. For this reason, several recent studies try to adopt various artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. Especially, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have popularly been applied in the prior studies because of its superior prediction accuracy. However, ANNs have some intrinsic limitations such as the risk of overfitting, the requirement of the large sample size, and the lack of understanding the prediction process (i.e. black box theory). As a result, the most recent studies on IDS have started to adopt support vector machine (SVM), the classification technique that is more stable and powerful compared to ANNs. SVM is known as a relatively high predictive power and generalization capability. Under this background, this study proposes a novel intelligent intrusion detection model that uses SVM as the classification model in order to improve the predictive ability of IDS. Also, our model is designed to consider the asymmetric error cost by optimizing the classification threshold. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, when considering total cost of misclassification in IDS, it is more reasonable to assign heavier weights on FNE rather than FPE. Therefore, we designed our proposed intrusion detection model to optimize the classification threshold in order to minimize the total misclassification cost. In this case, conventional SVM cannot be applied because it is designed to generate discrete output (i.e. a class). To resolve this problem, we used the revised SVM technique proposed by Platt(2000), which is able to generate the probability estimate. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 1,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. In addition, the SVM model was compared with the logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), and ANN to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell 4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on SVM outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that our model reduced the total misclassification cost compared to the ANN-based intrusion detection model. As a result, it is expected that the intrusion detection model proposed in this paper would not only enhance the performance of IDS, but also lead to better management of FNE.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.25-41
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• 2011

Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are being recognized as competitive tools as compared with other data mining techniques for solving pattern recognition or classification decision problems. Furthermore, many researches, in particular, have proved them more powerful than traditional artificial neural networks (ANNs) (Amendolia et al., 2003; Huang et al., 2004, Huang et al., 2005; Tay and Cao, 2001; Min and Lee, 2005; Shin et al., 2005; Kim, 2003).The classification decision, such as a binary or multi-class decision problem, used by any classifier, i.e. data mining techniques is so cost-sensitive particularly in financial classification problems such as the credit ratings that if the credit ratings are misclassified, a terrible economic loss for investors or financial decision makers may happen. Therefore, it is necessary to convert the outputs of the classifier into wellcalibrated posterior probabilities-based multiclass credit ratings according to the bankruptcy probabilities. However, SVMs basically do not provide such probabilities. So it required to use any method to create the probabilities (Platt, 1999; Drish, 2001). This paper applied AdaBoost algorithm-based support vector machines (SVMs) into a bankruptcy prediction as a binary classification problem for the IT companies in Korea and then performed the multi-class credit ratings of the companies by making a normal distribution shape of posterior bankruptcy probabilities from the loss functions extracted from the SVMs. Our proposed approach also showed that their methods can minimize the misclassification problems by adjusting the credit grade interval ranges on condition that each credit grade for credit loan borrowers has its own credit risk, i.e. bankruptcy probability.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.21-44
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• 2018

In recent years, the rapid development of internet technology and the popularization of smart devices have resulted in massive amounts of text data. Those text data were produced and distributed through various media platforms such as World Wide Web, Internet news feeds, microblog, and social media. However, this enormous amount of easily obtained information is lack of organization. Therefore, this problem has raised the interest of many researchers in order to manage this huge amount of information. Further, this problem also required professionals that are capable of classifying relevant information and hence text classification is introduced. Text classification is a challenging task in modern data analysis, which it needs to assign a text document into one or more predefined categories or classes. In text classification field, there are different kinds of techniques available such as K-Nearest Neighbor, Naïve Bayes Algorithm, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Artificial Neural Network. However, while dealing with huge amount of text data, model performance and accuracy becomes a challenge. According to the type of words used in the corpus and type of features created for classification, the performance of a text classification model can be varied. Most of the attempts are been made based on proposing a new algorithm or modifying an existing algorithm. This kind of research can be said already reached their certain limitations for further improvements. In this study, aside from proposing a new algorithm or modifying the algorithm, we focus on searching a way to modify the use of data. It is widely known that classifier performance is influenced by the quality of training data upon which this classifier is built. The real world datasets in most of the time contain noise, or in other words noisy data, these can actually affect the decision made by the classifiers built from these data. In this study, we consider that the data from different domains, which is heterogeneous data might have the characteristics of noise which can be utilized in the classification process. In order to build the classifier, machine learning algorithm is performed based on the assumption that the characteristics of training data and target data are the same or very similar to each other. However, in the case of unstructured data such as text, the features are determined according to the vocabularies included in the document. If the viewpoints of the learning data and target data are different, the features may be appearing different between these two data. In this study, we attempt to improve the classification accuracy by strengthening the robustness of the document classifier through artificially injecting the noise into the process of constructing the document classifier. With data coming from various kind of sources, these data are likely formatted differently. These cause difficulties for traditional machine learning algorithms because they are not developed to recognize different type of data representation at one time and to put them together in same generalization. Therefore, in order to utilize heterogeneous data in the learning process of document classifier, we apply semi-supervised learning in our study. However, unlabeled data might have the possibility to degrade the performance of the document classifier. Therefore, we further proposed a method called Rule Selection-Based Ensemble Semi-Supervised Learning Algorithm (RSESLA) to select only the documents that contributing to the accuracy improvement of the classifier. RSESLA creates multiple views by manipulating the features using different types of classification models and different types of heterogeneous data. The most confident classification rules will be selected and applied for the final decision making. In this paper, three different types of real-world data sources were used, which are news, twitter and blogs.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.145-159
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• 2014

This study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on turbidity water and eutrophication for Chungju Lake by using CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir water quality model coupled with SWAT watershed model. The SWAT was calibrated and validated using 11 years (2000~2010) daily streamflow data at three locations and monthly stream water quality data at two locations. The CE-QUAL-W2 was calibrated and validated for 2 years (2008 and 2010) water temperature, suspended solid, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and Chl-a. For the future assessment, the SWAT results were used as boundary conditions for CE-QUAL-W2 model run. To evaluate the future water quality variation in reservoir, the climate data predicted by MM5 RCM(Regional Climate Model) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B for three periods (2013~2040, 2041~2070 and 2071~2100) were downscaled by Artificial Neural Networks method to consider Typhoon effect. The RCM temperature and precipitation outputs and historical records were used to generate pollutants loading from the watershed. By the future temperature increase, the lake water temperature showed $0.5^{\circ}C$ increase in shallow depth while $-0.9^{\circ}C$ in deep depth. The future annual maximum sediment concentration into the lake from the watershed showed 17% increase in wet years. The future lake residence time above 10 mg/L suspended solids (SS) showed increases of 6 and 17 days in wet and dry years respectively comparing with normal year. The SS occupying rate of the lake also showed increases of 24% and 26% in both wet and dry year respectively. In summary, the future lake turbidity showed longer lasting with high concentration comparing with present behavior. Under the future lake environment by the watershed and within lake, the future maximum Chl-a concentration showed increases of 19 % in wet year and 3% in dry year respectively.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.303-308
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• 2020

The ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit) function has been dominantly used as a standard activation function in most deep artificial neural network models since it was proposed. Later, Leaky ReLU, Swish, and Mish activation functions were presented to replace ReLU, which showed improved performance over existing ReLU function in image classification task. Therefore, we recognized the need to experiment with whether performance improvements could be achieved by replacing the RELU with other activation functions in the super resolution task. In this paper, the performance was compared by changing the activation functions in EDSR model, which showed stable performance in the super resolution task. As a result, in experiments conducted with changing the activation function of EDSR, when the resolution was converted to double, the existing activation function, ReLU, showed similar or higher performance than the other activation functions used in the experiment. When the resolution was converted to four times, Leaky ReLU and Swish function showed slightly improved performance over ReLU. PSNR and SSIM, which can quantitatively evaluate the quality of images, were able to identify average performance improvements of 0.06%, 0.05% when using Leaky ReLU, and average performance improvements of 0.06% and 0.03% when using Swish. When the resolution is converted to eight times, the Mish function shows a slight average performance improvement over the ReLU. Using Mish, PSNR and SSIM were able to identify an average of 0.06% and 0.02% performance improvement over the RELU. In conclusion, Leaky ReLU and Swish showed improved performance compared to ReLU for super resolution that converts resolution four times and Mish showed improved performance compared to ReLU for super resolution that converts resolution eight times. In future study, we should conduct comparative experiments to replace activation functions with Leaky ReLU, Swish and Mish to improve performance in other super resolution models.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.39-57
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• 2012

Recently, due to the introduction of high-tech equipment in interactive exhibits, many people's attention has been concentrated on Interactive exhibits that can double the exhibition effect through the interaction with the audience. In addition, it is also possible to measure a variety of audience reaction in the interactive exhibition. Among various audience reactions, this research uses the change of the facial features that can be collected in an interactive exhibition space. This research develops an artificial neural network-based prediction model to predict the response of the audience by measuring the change of the facial features when the audience is given stimulation from the non-excited state. To present the emotion state of the audience, this research uses a Valence-Arousal model. So, this research suggests an overall framework composed of the following six steps. The first step is a step of collecting data for modeling. The data was collected from people participated in the 2012 Seoul DMC Culture Open, and the collected data was used for the experiments. The second step extracts 64 facial features from the collected data and compensates the facial feature values. The third step generates independent and dependent variables of an artificial neural network model. The fourth step extracts the independent variable that affects the dependent variable using the statistical technique. The fifth step builds an artificial neural network model and performs a learning process using train set and test set. Finally the last sixth step is to validate the prediction performance of artificial neural network model using the validation data set. The proposed model is compared with statistical predictive model to see whether it had better performance or not. As a result, although the data set in this experiment had much noise, the proposed model showed better results when the model was compared with multiple regression analysis model. If the prediction model of audience reaction was used in the real exhibition, it will be able to provide countermeasures and services appropriate to the audience's reaction viewing the exhibits. Specifically, if the arousal of audience about Exhibits is low, Action to increase arousal of the audience will be taken. For instance, we recommend the audience another preferred contents or using a light or sound to focus on these exhibits. In other words, when planning future exhibitions, planning the exhibition to satisfy various audience preferences would be possible. And it is expected to foster a personalized environment to concentrate on the exhibits. But, the proposed model in this research still shows the low prediction accuracy. The cause is in some parts as follows : First, the data covers diverse visitors of real exhibitions, so it was difficult to control the optimized experimental environment. So, the collected data has much noise, and it would results a lower accuracy. In further research, the data collection will be conducted in a more optimized experimental environment. The further research to increase the accuracy of the predictions of the model will be conducted. Second, using changes of facial expression only is thought to be not enough to extract audience emotions. If facial expression is combined with other responses, such as the sound, audience behavior, it would result a better result.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.39-54
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• 2013

Recent explosive increase of electronic commerce provides many advantageous purchase opportunities to customers. In this situation, customers who do not have enough knowledge about their purchases, may accept product recommendations. Product recommender systems automatically reflect user's preference and provide recommendation list to the users. Thus, product recommender system in online shopping store has been known as one of the most popular tools for one-to-one marketing. However, recommender systems which do not properly reflect user's preference cause user's disappointment and waste of time. In this study, we propose a novel recommender system which uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user's preference. The research data is collected from the real-world online shopping store, which deals products from famous art galleries and museums in Korea. The data initially contain 5759 transaction data, but finally remain 3167 transaction data after deletion of null data. In this study, we transform the categorical variables into dummy variables and exclude outlier data. The proposed model consists of two steps. The first step predicts customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in the online shopping store. In this step, we first use logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. We perform above data mining techniques using SAS E-Miner software. In this study, we partition datasets into two sets as modeling and validation sets for the logistic regression and decision trees. We also partition datasets into three sets as training, test, and validation sets for the artificial neural network model. The validation dataset is equal for the all experiments. Then we composite the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. Bagging is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Aggregation" and it composite outputs from several machine learning techniques for raising the performance and stability of prediction or classification. This technique is special form of the averaging method. Bumping is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Umbrella of Model Parameter," and it only considers the model which has the lowest error value. The results show that bumping outperforms bagging and the other predictors except for "Poster" product group. For the "Poster" product group, artificial neural network model performs better than the other models. In the second step, we use the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. We can extract thirty one association rules according to values of Lift, Support, and Confidence measure. We set the minimum transaction frequency to support associations as 5%, maximum number of items in an association as 4, and minimum confidence for rule generation as 10%. This study also excludes the extracted association rules below 1 of lift value. We finally get fifteen association rules by excluding duplicate rules. Among the fifteen association rules, eleven rules contain association between products in "Office Supplies" product group, one rules include the association between "Office Supplies" and "Fashion" product groups, and other three rules contain association between "Office Supplies" and "Home Decoration" product groups. Finally, the proposed product recommender systems provides list of recommendations to the proper customers. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. For this end, we construct the prototype system by using the ASP, Java Script and Microsoft Access. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The participants for the survey are 173 persons who use MSN Messenger, Daum Caf$\acute{e}$, and P2P services. We evaluate the user satisfaction using five-scale Likert measure. This study also performs "Paired Sample T-test" for the results of the survey. The results show that the proposed model outperforms the random selection model with 1% statistical significance level. It means that the users satisfied the recommended product list significantly. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.617-628
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• 2022

A ground support pattern should be designed by properly integrating various support materials in accordance with the rock mass grade when constructing a tunnel, and a technical decision must be made in this process by professionals with vast construction experiences. However, designing supports at the early stage of tunnel design, such as feasibility study or basic design, may be very challenging due to the short timeline, insufficient budget, and deficiency of field data. Meanwhile, the design of the support pattern can be performed more quickly and reliably by utilizing the machine learning technique and the accumulated design data with the rapid increase in tunnel construction in South Korea. Therefore, in this study, the design data and ground exploration data of 48 road tunnels in South Korea were inspected, and data about 19 items, including eight input items (rock type, resistivity, depth, tunnel length, safety index by tunnel length, safety index by rick index, tunnel type, tunnel area) and 11 output items (rock mass grade, two items for shotcrete, three items for rock bolt, three items for steel support, two items for concrete lining), were collected to automatically determine the rock mass class and the support pattern. Three machine learning models (S1, A1, A2) were developed using two machine learning algorithms (SVR, ANN) and organized data. As a result, the A2 model, which applied different loss functions according to the output data format, showed the best performance. This study confirms the potential of support pattern design using machine learning, and it is expected that it will be able to improve the design model by continuously using the model in the actual design, compensating for its shortcomings, and improving its usability.