• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.31-62
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• 2010

This paper analyzes empirically how analysts' forecasts affected by ownership structure. This study examine a sample of 1,037~1,629 the analysts' forecasts of firms registered in Korean Stock Exchange in the period from 2000 to 2006. The empirical results are summarized as follows. First, from the analysis, companies which have higher major shareholder's holdings tend to increase earnings forecast errors and earnings forecast accuracy. Meanwhile, companies which have higher institution shareholder's holdings tend to decrease earnings forecast errors and earnings forecast accuracy. This result is in line with the view of previous works that companies with higher major shareholder's holdings look towards more of analysts' optimistic forecasts in order to maintain friendly relations with major shareholders. Because of analysts' private information use from major shareholders, earnings forecast accuracy is higher in high major shareholder's holdings firm than in high institution shareholder's holdings it. Second, this analysis is whether the minimal required selection condition of outside directors, audit committee adoption and audit quality affect the relation between ownership structure and analysts' forecasts. This result is that variables related corporate governance do not affect statically the relation between ownership structure and analysts' forecasts. The meanings of this paper is to suggest the positive relations between ownership structure and analysts' forecasts. After this, if analysts will notice forecasts of more many firms, capital market will be more efficient and this field works are plentiful. Also it will need monitoring systems not to distort market efficiency by analysts' dishonest forecasts.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.10
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• pp.125-132
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of managerial predictive accuracy on managerial performance-compensation. In this study, we compared managerial performance with managerial performance, And to analyze the relationship between manager compensation and manager compensation using managerial profit prediction accuracy. As a result of this study, there is a significant positive relationship between profit prediction accuracy and manager compensation, which can be interpreted as a result of manager's ability to compensate manager's ability to predict the future well. In this paper, we propose a new methodology that can be used to analyze the effects of managerial compensation on managerial compensation. This is because there is a difference in that it is proved to be a factor. Therefore, it is important to note that the prediction of the future of the company also identifies the additional determinants that affect manager compensation contracts with the key managerial capabilities.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.8 no.11
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• pp.363-372
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• 2017

This study analyzed how management earnings forecasts would have an effect on future earnings quality. The analysis period of study was from 2003 till 2009 (ofrom 2004 till 2011) based on variables of interest (dependent variables) and the annual data from a total of 475 companies that publicly announced manager's operating earnings forecasts among securities listing companies were used for analysis. As a result, first, it appeared that the more optimistic the manager's earnings forecasts were for the current term, the lower the future earnings quality was. Second, it was found that the lower the accuracy of the manager's earnings forecasts was for the current term, the lower the future earnings quality was. Such findings suggest that management earnings forecasts will be used for determining future earnings quality.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.107-114
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• 2019

This study analyzes the effect of the accuracy of future management performance, which managers voluntarily announce in the previous year's disclosure, on managers compensation. In the case of a company that disclosed the bad news in the previous year, the ability to predict uncertain future will be more important, and expects executives with better predictability to receive more compensation. The results of this study show that there is a significant negative(-) relationship between the accuracy of the manager's earnings forecast and the performance - compensation of the firms that disclosed the bad news in the previous year. The accuracy of the manager's disclosure is important, and it is confirmed that the manager's compensation increases as the incentive of the manager's effort to reduce future uncertainty. The results of this study are as follows: there is a positive relationship between the managerial performance and the managerial competence of managers. It is important to note that there is a difference and that we have identified additional determinants of the manager compensation contract.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2014.10a
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• pp.409-411
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• 2014

There have been various advanced research on how changes of analysts' profit forecasts affect stock prices. Also, consensus, which is usually drawn by the arithmetic mean of profit forecasts, has been widely harnessed among investors in stock market. Recently, it is emphasized to reflect the internal factors of individual forecasts to raise the accuracy of consensus. Based on national and international research, this study proposes a new methodology in consensus by applying statistically meaningful factors in computation.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.163-184
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• 1995

본 논문은 금융실명제가 기업에서 발표하는 회계학적 이익정보에 대한 주식가격의 변화에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 이는 금융실명제실시 이후에는 기업에서 창출해 내는 기업이익이 진정한 이익에 보다 더 접근을 할 것이라 예상과 채무분석가의 기업이익에 대한 예측치는 진정한 이익에 대한 예측치이므로 금융실명제 실시 이후에는 예측오차가 감소할 것이다는 일반적 예상을 검증하기 위한 것이다. 본 논문은 먼저 1992년과 1993년 12월 결산기업에 대하여 비기대이익을 계산하여 두 해에서의 차이를 분석하였고, 계산된 비기대이익과 기업이익 공시시점에서의 비정상수익율과의 관계를 회귀분석을 통하여 분석하였다. 채무분석가의 예측치로서 대우경제연구소에서 1992년과 1993년 12월에 각각 발표한 각 상장기업의 이익에 대한1992년 및 1993년의 예상치를 각각 년도의 예상기업 이익으로 사용하고 실제로 1993년과 1994년 초에 공시되는 기업이익과의 차이를 조사하였다. 비정상수익율의 계산은 시장위험조정모형과 시장조정모형을 사용하였고 일별수익율에 의하여 측정하였다. 사건 시점은 주주총회 일을 중심으로하여 여러 사건 기간을 택하여 분석을 하였다. 실증적 분석 결과를 보면, 전체표본을 대상으로한 재무분석가의 추정치에 의하여 계산된 비기대이익의 분산이 금융실명제 실시 이후가 실시 이전에 비하여 더 크게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 금융실명제의 실시로 인하여 재무분석가의 예측이 오히려 더 부정확하게 나타난 것이라 할 수 있다. 이러한 결과는 실명제 실시에 따라서 기업이익예측에 대한 불확실성이 더 증가를 하여 기업이익 공시시점에서의 비기대이익의 측정에서의 오차가 오히려 증가하였다는 것을 알 수 있다. 그러나 전체표본을 소그룹으로 나누어서, 1부에 속한 기업들과 대형 주기업들을 대상으로한 분석에서는 이 두 소그룹에 속한 기업들이 각각 금융실명제실시 이후가 금융실명제 실시 이전보다 비기대이익의 분산이 작게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 1부에 속한 기업들과 대형주기업들에서 는 금융실명제실시로 채무분석가들의 이익 예측치가 더 정확성을 지니게 된 것으로 해석된다. 이익반응계수의 추정에서 예상했던 바와는 반대로 금융실명제 실시 이후에 계수의 크기가 오히려 감소하였다. 소그룹으로 나누어서 분석한 결과도 마찬가지였다. 금융실명제 실시가 기업회계이익에 미친 영향은 비기대이익의 측정을 통하여 일부 가설과 일치하는 결과를 얻었고, 이익반응계수의 측정에서는 가설과 일치하는 결과를 얻지 못하였다.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.393-400
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• 2022

In a situation where the company handles accounting conservatively, the management's earnings forecasting information will be more conservative, and the conservativeness of this earnings forecasting information will have a differential effect in evaluating the performance of managers and paying compensation. This study aims to examine how the level of corporate accounting conservatism affects the forecast information of managers and how this affects the compensation of managers. This study establishes a hypothesis on the effect of the level of accounting conservatism on the earnings forecasting information and compensation of managers, and examines the relationship between managerial profit forecasting information & manager compensation according of conservatism in corporate accounting that can vary depending on the manager's disposition. As a result of the analysis, conservative managers are also conservative in earnings forecasting disclosure, and when corporate managers are highly conservative, they show their ability by making earnings forecasts disclosures more frequently and more accurately than corporate managers with low conservatism. It will help reduce the forecasting errors of stakeholders. Therefore, it is expected that this will play an important role in judging the manager's ability and determining compensation. Therefore, when a company handles accounting conservatively, management's earnings forecasts are also measured conservatively, which is expected to provide useful information on the basis and form of management's compensation to stakeholders.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.207-215
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• 2018

In this study, targeting KOSPI and KOSDAQ listed companies, the relationship between the abnormal investment of companies and analyst earnings forecasts was empirically analyzed. The analysis period of this study spanned from 2003 to 2015 (with that of dependent variables spanning from 2004 to 2016) based on the variables of interest, and among the companies whose earnings per share forecasts were announced by financial analysts, the final sample of 4,917 companies/year that meets the research condition was selected as the target analysis. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, it turned out that the more total abnormal investment, abnormal R&D and abnormal CAPEX investment, the more accurate were analyst earnings forecasts. Second, the more total abnormal investment, abnormal R&D, abnormal CAPEX investment, the more pessimistic analyst earnings forecasts tended to be. Further analysis has shown that these results came more from over investment groups than under investment groups. The results of this study are expected to make additional contributions to the existing studies in that the abnormal investment is considered as a determinant of analyst earnings forecasts.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.93-124
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• 2003

This paper studies the financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance during the period from 1999 to 2003. In this study, financial analyst's forecasting activities are focused on the sales, operating income and net income and financial analyst's forecasting accuracy, forecasting revising patterns and forecasting activities to the unexpected firm's operating performance are studied. Some empirical findings in this study are as follows. First, standard estimate error on the sales, operating income and net income are all significantly negative value and so financial analyst's forecast on the firm's operating performance are upwardly biased. Second, domestic financial analyst's forecasting activities is relatively more accuracy than foreign financial analyst's forecasting activities. Third, forecasting time is more close to the end of the operating performance announcement day, forecasting activities are more accuracy. Fourth, comparing with individual financial analyst's forecast, consensus forecast is more accuracy. Fifth, in the comparative forecasting activities study according to the prior firm's operating performance, financial analyst's forecasting revision activities are found to be upward or downward. Sixth, financial analysts overreact in the sales forecast and underreact in the operating income and net income forecast. Seventh, in the empirical analysis on the Easterwood-Nutt's test model(1999) which the firm's performance change are divided into the expected performance change and the unexpected performance change, it is found that financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance are systematically optimistic.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.151-165
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• 2017

This study investigates the effect of revenue recognition by percentage of completion method on financial analysts' earnings forecasting information in order industry. Specifically, we examines how the analysts' earnings forecast errors and biases differ according to whether or not to report the unbilled revenue account balance and the level of unbilled revenue account balance. The sample consists of 453 firm-years listed in Korea Stock Exchange during the period from 2010 to 2014 since the information on unbilled revenue accounts can be obtained after the adoption of K-IFRS. The results are as follows. First, we find that the firms with unbilled revenue account balances have lower analysts' earnings forecast accuracy than the firms who do not report unbilled revue account balances. In addition, we find that the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts decreases as the amount of unbilled revenue increases. Unbilled revenue account balances occur when the revenue recognition of the contractor is faster than the client. There is a possibility that managerial discretionary judgment and estimation may intervene when the contractor calculates the progress rate. The difference between the actual progress of the construction and the progress recognized by the company lowers the predictive value of financial statements. Our results suggest that the analysts' earnings forecasts may be more difficult for the firms that report unbilled revenue balances as applying the revenue recognition method based on the progress criteria. Second, we find that the firms reporting unbilled revenue account balances tend to have higher the optimistic biases in analysts' earnings forecast than the firms who do not report unbilled revenue account balances. And we find that the analysts' earnings forecast biases are increases as the amount of unbilled revenue increases. This study suggests an effort to reduce the arbitrary adjustment and estimation in the measurement of the progress as well as the introduction of the progress measurement method which can reflect the actual progress. Investors are encouraged to invest and analyze the characteristics of the order-based industry accounting standards. In addition, the results of this study empower the accounting transparency enhancement plan for order industry proposed by the policy authorities.