• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.10D no.1
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• pp.161-166
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• 2003

Information lead time is defined as the time spent by processing orders from some buyers, whereas order lead time is defined as producing and supplying the products. The information lead time significantly serve to magnify the increase in variability due to demand forecasting. This paper models a decentralized supply chain composed of cascade type which has four type phases (or divisions) such as retailer, wholesaler, distributor, and factory. Each phases is managed by different centers individually with their own local inventory information. We investigate whether each phase's Information lead time affects companies networked a value chain. In particular, on several experiments performed with a programmed simulation (like a MIT beer game), we study the following question ; Can information lead times do better than material lead times in cost-benefit perspective\ulcorner Can more much Information lead times in downstream reasonably do worser than in upstream when playing the simulation\ulcorner In the conclusion, we show the importance of information lead time on a SC and, besides, guarantee that improvement of information lead time in upstream do more effective than one in downstream in cost-benefit perspective.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.139-155
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• 2003

This paper presents the new methodology of analyzing and classifying patterns of customers in mobile telecommunication market to enhance the performance of predicting the credit information based on the decision tree and neural network. With the application of variance selection process from decision tree, the systemic process of defining input vector's value and the rule generation were developed. In point of customer management, this research analyzes current customers and produces the patterns of them so that the company can maintain good customer relationship and makes special management on the customer who has huh potential of getting out of contract in advance. The real implementation of proposed method shows that the predicted accuracy is higher than existing methods such as decision tree(CART, C4.5), regression, neural network and combined model(CART and NN).

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.157-176
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• 2018

The purpose of this research is to develop a detection model for companies designated as administrative issue in KOSDAQ market using financial data. Administration issue designates the companies with high potential for delisting, which gives them time to overcome the reasons for the delisting under certain restrictions of the Korean stock market. It acts as an alarm to inform investors and market participants of which companies are likely to be delisted and warns them to make safe investments. Despite this importance, there are relatively few studies on administration issues prediction model in comparison with the lots of studies on bankruptcy prediction model. Therefore, this study develops and verifies the detection model of the companies designated as administrative issue using financial data of KOSDAQ companies. In this study, logistic regression and decision tree are proposed as the data mining models for detecting administrative issues. According to the results of the analysis, the logistic regression model predicted the companies designated as administrative issue using three variables - ROE(Earnings before tax), Cash flows/Shareholder's equity, and Asset turnover ratio, and its overall accuracy was 86% for the validation dataset. The decision tree (Classification and Regression Trees, CART) model applied the classification rules using Cash flows/Total assets and ROA(Net income), and the overall accuracy reached 87%. Implications of the financial indictors selected in our logistic regression and decision tree models are as follows. First, ROE(Earnings before tax) in the logistic detection model shows the profit and loss of the business segment that will continue without including the revenue and expenses of the discontinued business. Therefore, the weakening of the variable means that the competitiveness of the core business is weakened. If a large part of the profits is generated from one-off profit, it is very likely that the deterioration of business management is further intensified. As the ROE of a KOSDAQ company decreases significantly, it is highly likely that the company can be delisted. Second, cash flows to shareholder's equity represents that the firm's ability to generate cash flow under the condition that the financial condition of the subsidiary company is excluded. In other words, the weakening of the management capacity of the parent company, excluding the subsidiary's competence, can be a main reason for the increase of the possibility of administrative issue designation. Third, low asset turnover ratio means that current assets and non-current assets are ineffectively used by corporation, or that asset investment by corporation is excessive. If the asset turnover ratio of a KOSDAQ-listed company decreases, it is necessary to examine in detail corporate activities from various perspectives such as weakening sales or increasing or decreasing inventories of company. Cash flow / total assets, a variable selected by the decision tree detection model, is a key indicator of the company's cash condition and its ability to generate cash from operating activities. Cash flow indicates whether a firm can perform its main activities(maintaining its operating ability, repaying debts, paying dividends and making new investments) without relying on external financial resources. Therefore, if the index of the variable is negative(-), it indicates the possibility that a company has serious problems in business activities. If the cash flow from operating activities of a specific company is smaller than the net profit, it means that the net profit has not been cashed, indicating that there is a serious problem in managing the trade receivables and inventory assets of the company. Therefore, it can be understood that as the cash flows / total assets decrease, the probability of administrative issue designation and the probability of delisting are increased. In summary, the logistic regression-based detection model in this study was found to be affected by the company's financial activities including ROE(Earnings before tax). However, decision tree-based detection model predicts the designation based on the cash flows of the company.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.19-32
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• 2010

Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1619-1637
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• 2016

With wide distribution of smart phones and development of mobile network, social network service (SNS) is displaying remarkable growth rates. Users build new social relations by sharing their interests, which brings surging growth to the SNS based on the combination between the strength of expanding the place for communication and distribution of smart phones featured with easy portability. This study is designed to understand impact factors of SNS on users in Korea and to conduct empirical research on casual relationship between the factors above and the factors affecting personal information behavior through the privacy protection and self-efficacy. In order to accomplish the objective above, the study presented a research model applied with key variables of the Health Belief Model (HBM) predicting behaviors capable of recognizing and preventing individual diseases in the field of health communication. To perform empirical verification on the research model of this study, a survey was conducted upon college students at N university located in Chungcheongnam-do and K university in rural area, who have experiences using the SNS. Through this survey, a total of 186 samples were collected, and path analysis was performed in order to analyze the relationship between the factors. Based on the findings from the survey, first, variables Perceived probability, Perceived severity, Perceived impairment of the HBM, key factors of personal information protection behavior on the SNS, were found to exhibit negative relationship with self-efficacy, and Perceived probability, Perceived benefit, Perceived impairment were found to exhibit negative relationship with privacy protection. But the above, Perceived severity showed positive relationship with privacy protection, and Perceived benefit and self-efficacy also displayed positive relationship. Second, although self-efficacy, a parameter, showed positive relationship with privacy protection, it demonstrated negative relationship with personal information protection behavior. Lastly, privacy protection exhibited positive relationship with personal information protection behavior. By presenting theoretical model reflected with characteristics of prevention based on these findings above unlike previous studies on personal information protection using technologies threatening personal information, this study is to provide theoretical and operational foundation capable of offering explanations how to predict personal information protection behavior on the SNS in the future.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.127-144
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to derive service factors based on the "Rail Statistical Yearbook" data of railroad service providers from 1990 to 2019, and to analyze the effect of the service factors on the operating profit ratio(OPR), a representative management performance variable of railroad transport service providers. In particular, it has academic significance in terms of empirical research to evaluate whether the management innovation of the KoRail has changed in line with the purpose of establishing the corporation by dividing the research period into the first period (1990-2003) and the latter (2004-2019). The contents of this study investigated previous studies on the quality of railway passenger transportation service and analyzed the contents of government presentation data related to the management performance evaluation of the KoRail. As an empirical analysis model, a research model was constructed using OPR as a dependent variable and service factor variables of infrastructure, economy, safety, connectivity, and business diversity as explanatory variables based on the operation and management activity information during the analysis period 30 years. On the results of research analysis, OPR is that the infrastructure factor is improved by structural reform or efficiency improvement. And economic factors are the fact that operating profit ratio improves by reducing costs. The safety factor did not reveal the significant explanatory power of the regression coefficient, but the sign of influence was the same as the prediction. Connectivity factor reveals a influence on differences between first period and latter, but OPR impact direction is changed from negative in before to positive in late. This is an evironment in which connectivity is actually realized in later period. On diversity factor, there is no effect of investment share in subsidiaries and government subsidies on OPR.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.205-212
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• 2016

This study attempts to empirically investigate if value strategy and momentum strategy could be improved by using past financial data such as ROE and PER in the Korean stock market. The study observes that both strategies which are refined by the portfolios consisting of companies with higher ROE/PER ratio show higher positive excessive returns than the traditional value strategy and momentum strategy. The study discusses that the excessive returns could be due to investors' behavioral biases such as conservatism, anchoring, confirmation, and herding by using convergent approach based on psychology theory. The results are not consistent with the efficient market hypothesis insisting investors' rational behavior.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.104-114
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• 2019

This study explored to analyze the winning determinants of the lawsuit cases on the urban and housing redevelopment project based on jurimetric methods. Based on affirm-rate and staircase matrix tables, 441 lawsuit judgments are analyzed. Research findings in affirm-rate analysis indicate that past legal relation, no own defect of accreditation, no ownership or association member status, lapse of period of litigation, and no legal interest are identified as higher rate in order for the reason for plea on the merit. And so are defect on calculation of consent rate, defect in relation with written consent, approval before zoning designation, defect in relation with general meeting, and defect on zoning designation for the issue on the merit. It is noteworthy from the staircase matrix table analysis that the criteria for affecting the lawsuit outcome is determined based on key forecasting variables such as past legal relation and no ownership or association member status. This study intends to provide the implication that the unnecessary disputes can be reduced in the urban and housing redevelopment project by the implementation of jurimetric quantitative analysis methodology from the perspective of empirical law.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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• v.31 no.12
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• pp.1710-1720
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• 2007

Environmental changes, including intensive international competition, unpredictable consumer demand, and market trends of variety and short product life cycles, have compelled the U. S. textiles and apparel industry to focus increasingly on the consumer as a way to meet these challenges. The industry began expanding into mass customization that used information technology, flexible processes, and organizational structures to deliver a wide range of products and services that met specific needs of individual customers but on a mass scale. This paper presents cases of leading-edge technology application on customization and breakthrough concepts in personalization, with a view to raising the level of debate on these issues to its highest level.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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• v.11B no.2
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• pp.207-212
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• 2004

This paper presents a reinforcement learning framework for stock trading systems. Trading system parameters are optimized by Q-learning algorithm and neural networks are adopted for value approximation. In this framework, cooperative multiple agents are used to efficiently integrate global trend prediction and local trading strategy for obtaining better trading performance. Agents Communicate With Others Sharing training episodes and learned policies, while keeping the overall scheme of conventional Q-learning. Experimental results on KOSPI 200 show that a trading system based on the proposed framework outperforms the market average and makes appreciable profits. Furthermore, in view of risk management, the system is superior to a system trained by supervised learning.