• Title/Summary/Keyword: 이용수요예측 모형

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Dynamic Changes of Urban Spatial Structure in Seoul: Focusing on a Relative Office Price Gradient (오피스 가격경사계수를 이용한 서울시 도시공간구조 변화 분석)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2021
  • With the increasing demand for office space, there have been questions on how office rent distribution produces a change in the urban spatial structure in Seoul. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a relative price gradient and to present a time-series model that can quantitatively explain the dynamic changes in the urban spatial structure. The analysis was dealt with office rent above 3,306 m2 for the past 10 years from 1Q 2010 to 4Q 2019 within Seoul. A modified repeat sales model was employed. The main findings are briefly summarized as follows. First, according to the estimates of the office price gradient in the three major urban centers of Seoul, the CBD remained at a certain level with little change, while those in the GBD and the YBD continued to increase. This result reveals that the urban form of Seoul has shifted from monocentric to polycentric. This shows that the spatial distribution of companies has gradually accelerated decentralized concentration implying that the business networks have become significant. Second, contrary to small and medium-sized office buildings that have undertaken no change in the gradient, large office buildings have seen an increase in the gradient. The relative price gradients in small and medium-sized buildings were inversely proportional among the CBD, the GBD, and the YBD, implying their heterogeneous submarkets by office rent movements. Presumably, those differences in the submarkets were attributed to investment attraction, industrial competition, and the credit and preference of tenants. The findings are consistent with the hierarchical system identified in the Seoul 2030 Plan as well as the literature about Seoul's urban form. This research claims that the proposed method, based on the modified repeat sales model, is useful in understanding temporal dynamic changes. Moreover, the findings can provide implications for urban growth strategies under rapidly changing market conditions.

Development of an anisotropic spatial interpolation method for velocity in meandering river channel (비등방성을 고려한 사행하천의 유속 공간보간기법 개발)

  • You, Hojun;Kim, Dongsu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.455-465
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    • 2017
  • Understanding of the two-dimensional velocity field is crucial in terms of analyzing various hydrodynamic and fluvial processes in the riverine environments. Until recently, many numerical models have played major roles of providing such velocity field instead of in-situ flow measurements, because there were limitations in instruments and methodologies suitable for efficiently measuring in the broad range of river reaches. In the last decades, however, the advent of modernized instrumentations started to revolutionize the flow measurements. Among others, acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) became very promising especially for accurately assessing streamflow discharge, and they are also able to provide the detailed velocity field very efficiently. Thus it became possible to capture the velocity field only with field observations. Since most of ADCPs measurements have been mostly conducted in the cross-sectional lines despite their capabilities, it is still required to apply appropriate interpolation methods to obtain dense velocity field as likely as results from numerical simulations. However, anisotropic nature of the meandering river channel could have brought in the difficulties for applying simple spatial interpolation methods for handling dynamic flow velocity vector, since the flow direction continuously changes over the curvature of the channel shape. Without considering anisotropic characteristics in terms of the meandering, therefore, conventional interpolation methods such as IDW and Kriging possibly lead to erroneous results, when they dealt with velocity vectors in the meandering channel. Based on the consecutive ADCP cross-sectional measurements in the meandering river channel. For this purpose, the geographic coordinate with the measured ADCP velocity was converted from the conventional Cartesian coordinate (x, y) to a curvilinear coordinate (s, n). The results from application of A-VIM showed significant improvement in accuracy as much as 41.5% in RMSE.

A Study on Market Expansion Strategy via Two-Stage Customer Pre-segmentation Based on Customer Innovativeness and Value Orientation (고객혁신성과 가치지향성 기반의 2단계 사전 고객세분화를 통한 시장 확산 전략)

  • Heo, Tae-Young;Yoo, Young-Sang;Kim, Young-Myoung
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.73-97
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    • 2007
  • R&D into future technologies should be conducted in conjunction with technological innovation strategies that are linked to corporate survival within a framework of information and knowledge-based competitiveness. As such, future technology strategies should be ensured through open R&D organizations. The development of future technologies should not be conducted simply on the basis of future forecasts, but should take into account customer needs in advance and reflect them in the development of the future technologies or services. This research aims to select as segmentation variables the customers' attitude towards accepting future telecommunication technologies and their value orientation in their everyday life, as these factors wilt have the greatest effect on the demand for future telecommunication services and thus segment the future telecom service market. Likewise, such research seeks to segment the market from the stage of technology R&D activities and employ the results to formulate technology development strategies. Based on the customer attitude towards accepting new technologies, two groups were induced, and a hierarchical customer segmentation model was provided to conduct secondary segmentation of the two groups on the basis of their respective customer value orientation. A survey was conducted in June 2006 on 800 consumers aged 15 to 69, residing in Seoul and five other major South Korean cities, through one-on-one interviews. The samples were divided into two sub-groups according to their level of acceptance of new technology; a sub-group demonstrating a high level of technology acceptance (39.4%) and another sub-group with a comparatively lower level of technology acceptance (60.6%). These two sub-groups were further divided each into 5 smaller sub-groups (10 total smaller sub-groups) through two rounds of segmentation. The ten sub-groups were then analyzed in their detailed characteristics, including general demographic characteristics, usage patterns in existing telecom services such as mobile service, broadband internet and wireless internet and the status of ownership of a computing or information device and the desire or intention to purchase one. Through these steps, we were able to statistically prove that each of these 10 sub-groups responded to telecom services as independent markets. We found that each segmented group responds as an independent individual market. Through correspondence analysis, the target segmentation groups were positioned in such a way as to facilitate the entry of future telecommunication services into the market, as well as their diffusion and transferability.

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The Economic Effects of the New and Renewable Energies Sector (신재생에너지 부문의 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Lim, Seul-Ye;Park, So-Yeon;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2014
  • The Korean government made the 2nd Energy Basic Plan to achieve 11% of new and renewable energies distribution rate until 2035 as a response to cope with international discussion about greenhouse gas emission reduction. Renewable energies include solar thermal, photovoltaic, bioenergy, wind power, small hydropower, geothermal energy, ocean energy, and waste energy. New energies contain fuel cells, coal gasification and liquefaction, and hydrogen. As public and private investment to enhance the distribution of new and renewable energies, it is necessary to clarify the economic effects of the new and renewable energies sector. To the end, this study attempts to apply an input-output analysis and analyze the economic effects of new and renewable energies sector using 2012 input-output table. Three topics are dealt with. First, production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect are quantified based on demand-driven model. Second, supply shortage effects are analyzed employing supply-driven model. Lastly, price pervasive effects are investigated applying Leontief price model. The results of this analysis are as follows. First, one won of production or investment in new and renewable energies sector induces 2.1776 won of production and 0.7080 won of value-added. Moreover, the employment-inducing effect of one billion won of production or investment in new and renewable energies sector is estimated to be 9.0337 persons. Second, production shortage cost from one won of supply failure in new and renewable energies sector is calculated to be 1.6314 won, which is not small. Third, the impact of the 10% increase in new and renewable energies rate on the general price level is computed to be 0.0123%, which is small. This information can be utilized in forecasting the economic effects of new and renewable energies sector.

The Development and Application of the Officetel Price Index in Seoul Based on Transaction Data (실거래가를 이용한 서울시 오피스텔 가격지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.33-45
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    • 2021
  • Due to recent changes in government policy, officetels have received attention as alternative assets, along with the uplift of office and apartment prices in Seoul. However, the current officetel price indexes use small-size samples and, thus, there is a critique on their accuracy. They rely on valuation prices which lag the market trend and do not properly reflect the volatile nature of the property market, resulting in 'smoothing'. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to create the officetel price index using transaction data. The data, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from 2005 to 2020, includes sales prices and rental prices - Jeonsei and monthly rent (and their combinations). This study employed a repeat sales model for sales, jeonsei, and monthly rent indexes. It also contributes to improving conversion rates (between deposit and monthly rent) as a supplementary indicator. The main findings are as follows. First, the officetel price index and jeonsei index reached 132.5P and 163.9P, respectively, in Q4 2020 (1Q 2011=100.0P). However, the rent index was approximately below 100.0. Sales prices and jeonsei continued to rise due to high demand while monthly rent was largely unchanged due to vacancy risk. Second, the increase in the officetel sales price was lower than other housing types such as apartments and villas. Third, the employed approach has seen a potential to produce more reliable officetel price indexes reflecting high volatility compared to those indexes produced by other institutions, contributing to resolving 'smoothing'. As seen in the application in Seoul, this approach can enhance accuracy and, therefore, better assist market players to understand the market trend, which is much valuable under great uncertainties such as COVID-19 environments.

An Exploratory Research for Development of Design of Sensor-based Smart Clothing - Focused on the Healthcare Clothing Based on Bio-monitoring Technology - (센서 기반형 스마트 의류의 디자인 개발을 위한 탐색적 연구 - 생체 신호 센서 기술에 기반한 건강관리용 의류를 중심으로 -)

  • Cho Ha-Kyung;Lee Joo-Hyeon;Lee Chung-Keun;Lee Myoung-Ho
    • Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2006
  • Since the late 1990s, 'smart clothing' has been developed in a various way to meet the need of users and to help people more friendly interact with computers through its various designs. Recently, various applications of smart clothing concept have been presented by researchers. Among the various applications, smart clothing with a health care system is most likely to gain the highest demand rate in the market. Among them, smart clothing for check-up of health status with its sensors is expected to sell better than other types of smart clothing on the market. Under this circumstance, research and development for this field have been accelerated furthermore. This research institution has invented biometric sensors suitable for the smart clothing, and has developed a design to diagnose various diseases such as cardiac disorder and respiratory diseases. The newly developed smart clothing in this study looks similar to the previous inventions, but people can feel more comfortable in it with its fabric interaction built in it. When people wear it, the health status of the wearers is diagnosed and its signals are transmitted to the connected computer so the result can be easily monitored in real time. This smart clothing is a new kind of clothing as a supporting system for preventing various cardiac disorder and respiratory diseases using its biometric sensor built-in, and is also an archetype to show how smart clothing can work on the market.

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An Investigation of Rider Behavior to Transfer Seoul Metropolitan Transit Using Public Transport Card Data (교통카드 데이터를 이용한 수도권 광역급행철도 환승행태에 관한 연구)

  • Gun ki Jung;Dong min Lee;Sun hoon Kim
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.146-164
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the Korean government promoted the construction of metropolitan express subway to connect major transportation hub in the metropolitan area within 30 minutes. Most stations of the metropolitan express subway are connected to existing subway stations, so the importance of transfer increased. Although many studies have been conducted on the effect of transfer penalty on route choice, there are few studies on the transfer behavior of the metropolitan express subway. Therefore, in this study, a transfer behavior analysis was conducted on the Shinbundang Line, a representative metropolitan express subway. To analyze the transfer behavior according to the degree of traffic congestion and the presence of fare payment, route choice models were made using transport card data divided according to week, time, and user characteristics. As a result of the analysis, users of the metropolitan express subway had greater disutility to the transfer waiting time compared to the transfer moving time. Furthermore, especially during the peak time, EIVM(Equivalent in-vehicle minutes) of the transfer waiting time was 3.51. In this study, EIVM for metropolitan express subway users were analyzed to be 2.6 minutes, which is significantly lower than the results of previous studies on subways. This suggests that there is a difference in the transfer penalty between subways and metropolitan express subway, and that it is necessary to apply the transfer penalty between subways and express subway differently when forecasting subway traffic demand.

Extraction of Primary Factors Influencing Dam Operation Using Factor Analysis (요인분석 통계기법을 이용한 댐 운영에 대한 영향 요인 추출)

  • Kang, Min-Goo;Jung, Chan-Yong;Lee, Gwang-Man
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.10
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    • pp.769-781
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    • 2007
  • Factor analysis has been usually employed in reducing quantity of data and summarizing information on a system or phenomenon. In this analysis methodology, variables are grouped into several factors by consideration of statistic characteristics, and the results are used for dropping variables which have lower weight than others. In this study, factor analysis was applied for extracting primary factors influencing multi-dam system operation in the Han River basin, where there are two multi-purpose dams such as Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam, and water has been supplied by integrating two dams in water use season. In order to fulfill factor analysis, first the variables related to two dams operation were gathered and divided into five groups (Soyanggang Dam: inflow, hydropower product, storage management, storage, and operation results of the past; Chungju Dam: inflow, hydropower product, water demand, storage, and operation results of the past). And then, considering statistic properties, in the gathered variables, some variables were chosen and grouped into five factors; hydrological condition, dam operation of the past, dam operation at normal season, water demand, and downstream dam operation. In order to check the appropriateness and applicability of factors, a multiple regression equation was newly constructed using factors as description variables, and those factors were compared with terms of objective function used in operation water resources optimally in a river basin. Reviewing the results through two check processes, it was revealed that the suggested approach provided satisfactory results. And, it was expected for extracted primary factors to be useful for making dam operation schedule considering the future situation and previous results.

Development of an Adaptive Capacity Indicator to Climate Change in the Agricultural Water Sector (농업용수의 기후변화 적응능력 지표 개발 - 가뭄에 대한 적응을 중심으로 -)

  • Yoo, Ga-Young;Kim, Jin-Teak;Kim, Jung-Eun
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.35-55
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    • 2008
  • Assessing vulnerability to climate change is the first step to take when setting up appropriate adaptation strategies. Adaptive capacity to climate change is the important factor comprising vulnerability. An adaptive capacity index in agricultural water management system was developed considering agricultural water supply and demand for rice production in Jeolla-do, Korea. The agricultural water supply was assumed to be equal to the amount of water stored in the major agricultural reservoirs, while data on the agricultural water demand was obtained from the dynamic simulation results by Korea Agriculture Corporation(KAC). The spatial unit for analysis was conducted at the county(Si, Gun, Gu) level and temporal scale was based on every month from 1991-2003. Adaptive capacity for drought stress index(ACDS index) was calculated as the percentage of data points where the irrigated water supply was greater than the crop water demand. The ACDS index was compared with SWSCI(Standard Water Storage Capacity Index) and the relationship showed high degree of fit($R^2$=0.84) using the exponential function, indicating that the developed ACDS index is useful for evaluating the status of the balance between agricultural water supply and demand, especially for the small sized agricultural reservoirs. This study provided the methodological basis for developing climate change vulnerability index in agricultural water system which is projected to be more frequently exposed to drought condition in the future due to climate change. Further research should be extended to the study on the water demand of the crops other than rice and to the projection of the change in ACDS index in the future.

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