• Title/Summary/Keyword: 의사 결정 모델

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Spatial Analysis for Mean Annual Precipitation Based On Neural Networks (신경망 기법을 이용한 연평균 강우량의 공간 해석)

  • Sin, Hyeon-Seok;Park, Mu-Jong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.3-13
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    • 1999
  • In this study, an alternative spatial analysis method against conventional methods such as Thiessen method, Inverse Distance method, and Kriging method, named Spatial-Analysis Neural-Network (SANN) is presented. It is based on neural network modeling and provides a nonparametric mean estimator and also estimators of high order statistics such as standard deviation and skewness. In addition, it provides a decision-making tool including an estimator of posterior probability that a spatial variable at a given point will belong to various classes representing the severity of the problem of interest and a Bayesian classifier to define the boundaries of subregions belonging to the classes. In this paper, the SANN is implemented to be used for analyzing a mean annual precipitation filed and classifying the field into dry, normal, and wet subregions. For an example, the whole area of South Korea with 39 precipitation sites is applied. Then, several useful results related with the spatial variability of mean annual precipitation on South Korea were obtained such as interpolated field, standard deviation field, and probability maps. In addition, the whole South Korea was classified with dry, normal, and wet regions.

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Evaluation Methods of Sociality in the Decision Making Process for Dam Construction (공공사업(댐)의 의사결정시 사회성 평가 방법)

  • Kim, Woo-Ku;Kim, Tea-Young;Lee, Gwang-Man
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.657-662
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    • 2006
  • 공공사업의 목적은 사업을 통해서 발생하는 혜택을 인간 및 사회가치 적합하도록 최대한 확산하고자 하는 것이다. 그럼에도 불구하고 당해 사회적 가치를 고려하지 않는 경제 및 정책 범주에서만의 분석은 공공사업의 추진타당성에 신뢰저하를 가져오거나 사업추진지역사회의 막연한 불안감(저항)에 효과적으로 대응하지 못하는 문제를 일으키고 있다. 따라서 타당성 있는 사업추진 및 지역사회 저항을 극복할 수 있는 방법발견은 중요하다고 하겠다. 해결방향은 공공사업으로 영향 받는 당해지역에서의 경제(정책포함)외적인 제약조건까지 파악하여서 전반적인 사회경제적가치(시장가치)를 재발견해 가는데 있다. 그것은 공공사업의 예비타당성 평가시에 잠재적으로 부딪힐 저항이나, 개발이후에 발생할 수 있는 확산가치까지도 대상에 포함시켜야 한다는 의미이다. 주지하는 바와 같이 잠재적 가치는 경제적 요소에서만 발생하기 보다는 당해지역의 사회문화적 잠재성 극대화에서 나온다. 지금까지의 계획수립과정은 정부와 전문가집단이 중심이 되어 계획을 수립하고 작성된 계획안에 대해 시민단체, 환경단체 등 이해당사자들이 공청회나 공람을 통해 의견을 제시하는 소극적 프로세스였다. 한편, 대안적 프로세스는 계획수립의 초기단계부터 다양한 이해당사자를 참여시키고 이들을 보조자가 아닌 계획수립의 주체로서 인정하고 협의와 조정과정을 거쳐 합의를 도출함으로써 계획의 정당성을 확보하고 실행가능성을 높이는 방식이 유용할 것으로 사료된다. 본 연구는 미래지향적 가치를 포괄하고 있는 예비적인 사회적 타당성의 평가항목 및 방법을 제시하고자 한다. 이것은 일반적으로 사회영향평가(SIA: Social Impact Assesment)모델을 통해서 공공사업 및 민간사업이 당해 사회에 미치는 영향을 파악하고, 이의 대응방안 마련에 초점을 맞추고 있다. 주요 내용은 공공사업관리방식의 체계를 파악하고 공공사업의 사회적 타당성 및 국내외 적용사례 분석을 통한 시사점 도출과 사회성 검토항목 및 평가방법을 제시한 후, 우리나라에의 적용방안을 검토하였다.

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Unit Water Production Cost Development for Alternative Water Resource Projects - Centered on the Economics of Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) - (대안수자원시설의 음용수 단위생산비용 산출 - 청정지하저수지 경제성에 대한 고찰 -)

  • Choi, Jae-Ho;Shim, Young-Gyoo;Park, Nam-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.611-619
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    • 2017
  • This paper intends to develop unit water production cost (UWPC) between alternative water resources including desalination, freshwater reservoirs, single-purpose dams, underground dams, and two indirect water in-take technologies - riverbank filtration and aquifer storage and recovery (ASR). The UWPCs of water supply schemes including each alternative are determined based on project cost, and operation and maintenance estimation models, which were developed based on real project cost data. The sensitivity analysis of UWPCs reveals that ASR is the lowest cost option in producing drinkable water among the alternatives, followed by riverbank filtration and underground dam. It is expected that economics related to the finding plays a critical role in supporting water resources planning and budget allocation for central and local water authority in Korea.

A Study on the Idol Survivability Prediction Using Machine Learning Techniques : Focused on the Industrial Competitiveness (머신러닝 기법을 활용한 아이돌 생존 가능성 예측 연구 : 산업 경쟁력 증진을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Seul-ah;Ahn, Ju Hyuk;Cui, Fuquan
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.291-302
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    • 2020
  • Korean popular music industry, which is lead by "Idol group", has forsaken their fandom all over the world. Therefore, idol groups has become not only an artist but also the most influential people in the Korean economy. A global idol group with a strong fandom can earn more than a trillion-dollar by attracting their global fan's interest in Korea. In other words, it is considerably important to carry the idol to a successful conclusion. This study tries to expect whether the idols can be survived or not at a certain point after their debut by ANN, Decision Tree, Random Forest. We decide that certain point as the three-year and eight-year after their debut, because it is their break-even point year and the year after their average renewal of the contract. In addition, this study also explains which feature is the most important to their survival by feature importance and Logistic regression. In conclusion, features like the number of idol competitors, the number of debut members and the number of the genre are significant. These results shed light on the efficient management of K-Pop idol to improve industrial competitiveness.

Decision Making Model for Powertrain Mount-Stop&Go Performance in a compact mobile (소형 승용차의 파워트레인 마운트 Stop&Go 성능 적용을 위한 의사결정모델)

  • Yu, Jung-Woo;Um, In-Sup;Lee, Hong-Chul
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.967-976
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    • 2012
  • This study presents a model to minimize vibration and noise of powertrain mount on a compact car which has the application of Stop & Go performance, in order to reduce CO2 and achieve better fuel-efficiency in accordance with the environmental regulations in automotive industries. In the first step, we analyze the powertrain mount system of the automobile "A" and present variables about rubber stiffness applied on powertrain mount using the Taguchi method. In the next step, we verify the optimization of vibration and noise which meet Stop & Go performance using the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) method on the proto products for each variable. Using this validation system on the initial stage of the powertrain mount design, it is expected that we can grasp vibration and noise problems caused by engine movements and control them effectively without engineering know-how about powertrain mount rubber stiffness.

Estimating The Economic Value of Information Security Management System (ISMS) Certification by CVM (조건부가치측정법(CVM)을 이용한 정보보호 관리체계(ISMS) 인증의 경제적 가치 추정 연구)

  • Jang, Sang-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.5783-5789
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    • 2014
  • Since 2002, many domestic companies have been certified for ISMS. On the other hand, certification, such as the need for ost-effectiveness evaluation, is not specifically enforced. Therefore, for more than 10 years, the ISMS implementation and certification system has been used for performance and cost effective business management. In this study, a model for analyzing the effect of certification organizations, ISMS development, and an analysis of the effect of a standardized system for the study was prepared. To this end, the existing maintenance organizations ISMS certification survey was conducted through an analysis of the economic effects. ISMS certification continues to expand or maintain the policy for improvement. The survey data collected by the analysis mechanism for the economic effects of CVM was analyzed.

Design of Retrieval system using XMDR based knowledge sharing (지식공유 기반의 XMDR을 이용한 검색 시스템 설계)

  • Hwang Chi-Gon;Yi Min-Noh;Park Yoo-Shin;Jung Gye-Dong;Choi Young-Keun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.06c
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    • pp.127-129
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    • 2006
  • 최근 대부분 기업들 환경에서의 정보 시스템들은 지역적으로 분산되어 있으며 다양한 형태로 구성되어 있으므로, 사용자 의사 결정을 지원하는데 필요한 통합된 정보를 얻는 것은 어려운 일이다. 따라서 이러한 문제를 효율적으로 정보 검색에 적용하기위해 사용자에게 단일 인터페이스를 제공하고, 이기종 시스템들 간에 구축된 데이터베이스 시스템들은 각각 독립성을 유지하면서 하나의 인터페이스처럼 투명성을 제공할 필요성이 있다. 이를 위해 ISO/IEC 11179에서 연구 중인 XMDR의 개념을 이용하여 정보검색에서 발생하는 "의미적 상호운용성(semantic interoperability)"이라는 문제점을 해결하고 이 XMDR에 지식 인스턴스 계층을 통한 지식공유를 가능하게 함으로써 단순 검색의 한계점을 극복할 수 있도록 한다. 본 논문에서는 데이터 표현에 사용되는 명칭, 속성, 관계성에 대한 이질적인 문제를 해결하기 위한 표준 온톨로지, 각 레거시 시스템을 연결하는 중간자(mediation)역할을 수행하는 로케이션 온톨로지, 지식공유가 가능하도록 하는 지식 인스턴스 계층으로 구성하는 방법을 제안한다. 또한 지식 인스턴스 계층은 협업적인 검색 환경하에서 각각의 정보시스템에서 다양한 형태의 지식을 공유 및 통합에 있어 구조화 되지 않은 지식들을 어떻게 공유할 것인가에 대한 개념적인 모델을 제시한다.

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Inductive Classification of Multi-Spectral Threat Data for Autonomous Situation Awareness (자율적인 상황인식을 위한 다중센서 위협데이타의 귀납적 분류)

  • Jeong, Yong-Woong;Noh, Sang-Uk;Go, Eun-Kyoung;Jeong, Un-Seob
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.189-196
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    • 2008
  • To build autonomous agents who can make a decision on behalf of humans in time-critical complex environments, the formulation of operational knowledge base could be essential. This paper proposes the methodology of how to formulate the knowledge base and evaluates it in a practical application domain. We analyze threat data received from the multiple sensors of Aircraft Survivability Equipment(ASE) for Korean helicopters, and integrate the threat data into the inductive model through compilation technique which extracts features of the threat data and relations among them. The compiled protocols of state-action rules can be implemented as the brain of the ASE. They can reduce the amounts of reasoning, and endow the autonomous agents with reactivity and flexibility. We report experimental results that demonstrate the distinctive and predictive patterns of threats in simulated battlefield settings, and show the potential of compilation methods for the successful detection of threat systems.

A Propensity of the Players' Preferences of the On-Line Game under Their Thinking Modes of The Cerebral Hemispheric Model (대뇌반구모형의 사고유형별 온라인 게임 선호요소에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dea-Yong;Chung, Seung-Ho;Choi, Eun-Suk
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.11
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    • pp.140-150
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    • 2009
  • Difference of individual character is defined Cerebral Hemispheric Model(CHM) to develop individual intellectual abilities in this paper. Component of preferred online-game is surveyed in accordance with individual character, and investigated for possible applications. An individual is classified with 2 modes of CHM that take charge of intellectual abilities; abilities is character, taste, personality decision-making and behavior patterns; that is closely related to creativity. Difference of game component could be investigated with correlation table of cerebral preference patterns (CPP) that was drawn up with survey. Individual brain preferences (IBP) became clear through preference of individual in the investigation, and suggested concept guide-line to develop other brain preferences. Thus, this study is able to realize from education game to a great variety of contents that base on the development of thinking-faculties as optimization of user preference, can be the basic data of self-development, to improve intellectual faculties as development of individual thinking preference.

Case Studies on Planning and Learning for Large-Scale CGFs with POMDPs through Counterfire and Mechanized Infantry Scenarios (대화력전 및 기계화 보병 시나리오를 통한 대규모 가상군의 POMDP 행동계획 및 학습 사례연구)

  • Lee, Jongmin;Hong, Jungpyo;Park, Jaeyoung;Lee, Kanghoon;Kim, Kee-Eung;Moon, Il-Chul;Park, Jae-Hyun
    • KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.343-349
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    • 2017
  • Combat modeling and simulation (M&S) of large-scale computer generated forces (CGFs) enables the development of even the most sophisticated strategy of combat warfare and the efficient facilitation of a comprehensive simulation of the upcoming battle. The DEVS-POMDP framework is proposed where the DEVS framework describing the explicit behavior rules in military doctrines, and POMDP model describing the autonomous behavior of the CGFs are hierarchically combined to capture the complexity of realistic world combat modeling and simulation. However, it has previously been well documented that computing the optimal policy of a POMDP model is computationally demanding. In this paper, we show that not only can the performance of CGFs be improved by an efficient POMDP tree search algorithm but CGFs are also able to conveniently learn the behavior model of the enemy through case studies in the scenario of counterfire warfare and the scenario of a mechanized infantry brigade's offensive operations.