• Title/Summary/Keyword: 의사결정균형

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일상어휘를 기반으로 한 선물 가격 예측모형의 계발

  • 김광용;이승용
    • Proceedings of the Korea Database Society Conference
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    • 1999.06a
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    • pp.291-300
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    • 1999
  • 본 논문은 인공신경망과 귀납적 학습방법 등의 인공지능 방법과 선물가격결정에 대한 기존 재무이론을 사용하여 일상어취로 표현되는 파생상품 가격예측 모형을 개발하는데 있다. 모형의 개발은 1단계로 인공신경망이나 기존의 선물가격결정이론(평균보 유비용모형이나 일반균형모형)을 이용하여 선물 가격을 예측한 후, 서로 비교 분석하여 인공신경망 모형의 우수성을 확인하였다. 귀납적 학습방법중 CART 알고리듬을 사용하여 If-Then 규칙을 생성하였다. 특히 실용적 측면에서 선물가격의 일상어휘화를 통한 모형개발을 여러 가지 방법으로 시도하였다. 이러한 선물가격 예측모형의 유용성은 일단 If-Then 규칙으로 표현되어 전문가의 판단에 확실한 이론적인 근거를 제시할 수 있는 장점이 있으며, 특히 의사결정지원시스템으로 활용화 될 경우 매우 유용한 근거자료로 활용될 수 있다. 이러한 선물가격 예측모형의 정확성은 분석표본과 검증표본으로 나누어 검증표본에서 세가지 기본모형(평균보유 비용모형, 일반균형모형, 인공신경망 모형)과 각 모형의 귀납적 학습방법 모형의 다른 3가지 어휘표현방법 3가지를 모형별로 비교 분석하였다. 분석결과 인공신경망모형은 상당한 예측력을 갖고 있는 것으로 판명되었으며, 특히 CART를 기반으로 한 일상어취 기반의 선물가격예측 모형은 예측력이 높은 것으로 나타났다.

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A Political Economic Analysis of Environmental Policy, Redistributive Policy, and Economic Growth (환경정책, 재분배정책, 경제성장에 관한 정치경제학적 분석)

  • KIM, Jaehoon
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.145-175
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    • 2011
  • We analyse an overlapping generation model in which economic agents, especially their income distribution, influence environmental policy and redistributive policy through political decision making process. In an economic equilibrium which doesn't consider political process, the introduction of environmental policy is shown to increase economic growth rate. In contrast to an economic equilibrium, environmental policy can be adopted when economic inequality reduces to a certain threshold in a political economic equilibrium. The adoption of environmental policy, on the other hand, incurs the demand of strengthened redistributive policy, which in turn decreases economic growth in a short run. We discuss broad policy implications based on our political economic analyses.

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Process of Change, Decisional Balance and Self-Efficacy Corresponding to the Stage of Exercise Behavior in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (제 2형 당뇨 환자의 운동행위 변화단계에 따른 변화과정, 의사결정균형 및 자기 효능감에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Chun-Ja
    • Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-92
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    • 2002
  • Purpose: This study was performed to identify the process of change, decisional balance and self-efficacy corresponding to the stage of exercise behavior using Transtheoretical Model in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Method: The study method was a survey in 100 type 2 DM patients at out-patients clinic of Y medical center from March 19, 2000 to October 30, 2000. Result: The results were as follows: The subjects were divided into five stages of exercise behavior ; 15.0% in pre-contemplation stage, 33.0% in contemplation stage, 17.0% in preparation stage, 16.0% in action stage and 19.0% in maintenance stage. The subjects in pre-contemplation stage used all processes of change in the least. "Dramatic relief(DR)", "Environmental reevaluation(ER)" and "Self reevaluation(SR)" were identified as main processes of change in contemplation stage. "Consciousness raising(CR)", "DR" were used higher than average in preparation stage. Helping relationships(HR)", "CR", "ER", "SR", "Social liberation(SL)", "Counter conditioning (CC)", "Reinforcement management(RM)", "Self iberation(SEL)" and "Stimulus control(SC)" were used higher than average in action stage. The subjects in maintenance stage used all process of change the highest except "DR"and "HR". "Cons" score of decisional balance was the highest in pre-contemplation stage, "Pros" score was the highest in action stage and "Self-efficacy" score was the highest in maintenance stage. Conclusion: This study can provide the basis of staged matching exercise program using TTM for more effective and useful intervention.

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A Survey on Oral Examination Behavior of Adults in Their 20s Based on Transtheoretical Model (범이론적 모델에 근거한 20대 성인의 구강검진 행위에 대한 조사)

  • Hwang, Sun-Hee;Choi, Hye-Sook;Son, So-Hyun
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.77-83
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to survey aspects of factors in stages of change and decisional balance on oral examination of adults in their 20s by applying transtheoretical model. Transtheoretical model is the one that was developed in order to explain a human being's behavioral change. The stages of change consist of precontemplation stage, contemplation stage, preparation stage, action stage, and maintenance stage. Decisional balance is utilized with comprising 2 elements such as pros and cons in transtheoretical model, and was mentioned that pros and cons have unique form every behavioral stage of change. As a result of applying the regular oral examination behavior based on transtheoretical model, it was indicated to be precontemplation stage with 79 people(22.1%), contemplation stage with 156 people(43.6%), preparation stage with 38 people(10.6%), action stage with 47 people(13.1%), and maintenance stage with 38 people(10.6%). Subjects, who maintain regular oral examination, were indicated to recognize pros highly in the decision balance. Subjects, who don't have intention of receiving oral examination, were indicated to have characteristic of recognizing cons highly.

IT Governance of the Korean Conglomerates: A Comparative Case Study (국내 대기업들의 IT 거버넌스: 비교 사례 연구)

  • Zo, Hang-Jung;Song, Chan-Hoo;Kang, Hyun-Goo;Lim, Dong-Won
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.335-359
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    • 2009
  • This study explores the IT governance structures of the Korean conglomerates. It investigates IT organization structures, decision making frameworks and processes, communication channels, implementation mechanisms, and performance evaluation methods around IT activities of the Korean conglomerates by analyzing four different cases. The results show that all of the conglomerates have an IT service firms as one of their subsidiaries, and all the subsidiaries in the conglomerates outsource their IT divisions to the IT service firms, The client firms in the conglomerates operate IT strategy and planning teams to coordinate their IT activities with their outsourcing partners. The IT governance archetype of the Korean conglomerates is found to be "business monarchy" because the client firms mostly make IT decisions. However, the IT service firms provide the information of IT trends and solutions to their clients, so the IT governance archetype of input framework for IT decisions can be "IT monarchy". In addition, the conglomerate which has the more centralized IT governance architecture appears to prefer the more integrated implementation mechanisms for IT decisions. The results of this study are expected to be used as a benchmarking model for the organizations which try to develop an effective IT governance structure.

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The Effect of Exercise Behavior Change of Casino Securities on Their Physical Self-description (카지노 시큐리티 종사자의 운동행동변화과정이 신체적 자기개념에 미치는 효과)

  • Chun, Yong-Tae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.597-601
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to closely examine the effect of exercise behavior change of casino securities on their physical self-description. This observation takes place in casino enterprises in Seoul, Busan, Kangwon and Jeju. Within these areas, we have selected companies with more than 30 securities. Among 450 persons sampling unit, we have excluded 77 copied which seem to be insincere, and actually used 373 copies in this study. Evaluation forms are used as a study method; each form consists of continuance 5 points Likert scales and nominal/proportional scaling and used after excluding a test through the analysis of validity and reliability. After encoding and inputting the framing completed data along with each purpose, it was computerized by computer process, making use of SPSS 15.0 version. Through the data analysis according to these methods and procedures, the result on this study is described below. First, the exercise behavior according to socio-demographic characteristics. Second, the decision-making balance according to socio-demographic characteristics. Third, the self-efficacy according to socio-demographic characteristics. Fourth, the physical self-concept according to socio-demographic characteristics. Fifth, the exercise behavior influence indirectly on the physical self-concept throughout the decision-making balance and self-efficacy.

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A Two-tier Optimization Approach for Decision Making in Many-objective Problems (고도 다목적 문제에서의 의사 결정을 위한 이중 최적화 접근법)

  • Lee, Ki-Baek
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.7
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    • pp.21-29
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    • 2015
  • This paper proposes a novel two-tier optimization approach for decision making in many-objective problems. Because the Pareto-optimal solution ratio increases exponentially with an increasing number of objectives, simply finding the Pareto-optimal solutions is not sufficient for decision making in many-objective problems. In other words, it is necessary to discriminate the more preferable solutions from the other solutions. In the proposed approach, user preference-oriented as well as diverse Pareto-optimal solutions can be obtained as candidate solutions by introducing an additional tier of optimization. The second tier of optimization employs the corresponding secondary objectives, global evaluation and crowding distance, which were proposed in previous works, to represent the users preference to a solution and the crowdedness around a solution, respectively. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, decision making for some benchmark functions is conducted, and the outcomes with and without the proposed approach are compared. The experimental results demonstrate that the decisions are successfully made with consideration of the users preference through the proposed approach.

The Analysis of Priorities of Roads Investment Using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP를 이용한 도로사업의 우선순위 분석)

  • 정병두
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2002
  • The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been widely used as a comprehensive evaluation method since it can include various evaluation standards of both the public and private sectors. It also provides the objective mathematics to process subjective and Personal preferences of an individual or a group in making a decision. This study tried to use AHP to determine the priority of roads investment, considering various effects in a hierarchy such as environmental effects, residential life, and regional development which has not been treated explicitly. As a case study, roads in Gyeongsangbukdo province have been chosen for the evaluation in this research. For the application, it used relative measurements to estimate the weight of upper level structure, and absolute measurement for low level structure instead of pairwise comparisons.

Process of Change, Self Efficacy and Decisional Balance Corresponding to Stage of Change in Smoking Cessation in Industrial Workers (산업장 남성근로자의 금연변화단계별 변화과정, 자기효능감과 의사결정 균형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yun-Mi;Park, Nam-Hee;Seo, Ji-Min
    • Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.483-492
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: The study was performed to identify the process of change, decisional balance and self-efficacy corresponding to the stage of smoking cessation behavior based on Transtheoretical Model in industrial workers. Method: A convenience sample of 146 industrial workers except for the never smokers, were recruited at a H industry in Ulsan. Data were collected from February 1 to 28, 2002. The research instruments were Stages of Change of Smoking Cessation Measure(DiClemente et al, 1991), Process of change(Prochaska, 1988), Smoking Abstinence Self Efficacy (SASE: DiClemente et al, 1985) and Decisional balance(SDB; Kim, 1999). Result: The results of this study were as follows; 1. The subjects were distributed in each stage of smoking cessation change: There were 64 subjects (43.0%) in the precontemplation stage, 35 subjects(23.5%) in the contemplation stage, 28 subjects(18.8%) in the preparation stage, 14 subjects(10.1%) in the action stage and 7 subjects(4.7%) in the maintenance stage. 2. Analysis of variance showed that experiental process(F=2.808, p=.042), behavioral process (F=4.567, p=.004) self-efficacy(F=9.809, p=.000), pros(F=11.107, p=.000), cons(F=6.686, p=.000), pros- cons(F=3.446, p=.018) were significantly associated with the stages of smoking cessation change. 3. Through discriminant analysis, it was found that 'PROS' was the most influential variable in discriminating the four stages of change. Conclusion: This study can provide the basis of staged matching smoking cessation program using TTM for more effective and useful intervention.

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일상어휘를 기반으로 한 선물 가격 예측모형의 개발

  • 김광용;이승용
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 1999.03a
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    • pp.291-300
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    • 1999
  • 본 논문은 인공신경망과 귀납적 학습방법 등의 인공지능 방법과 선물가격결정에 대한 기존 재무이론을 사용하여 일상어휘로 표현되는 파생상품 가격예측 모형을 개발하는데 있다. 모형의 개발은 1단계로 인공신경망이나 기존의 선물가격결정이론(평균보유비용모형이나 일반균형모형)을 이용하여 선물 가격을 예측한 후, 서로 비교분석하여 인공신경망 모형의 우수성을 확인하였다. 귀납적 학습방법중 CART 알고리듬을 사용하여 If-Then 규칙을 생성하였다. 특히 실용적 측면에서 선물가격의 일상어휘화를 통한 모형개발을 여러 가지 방법으로 시도하였다. 이러한 선물가격 예측모형의 유용성은 일단 If-Then 규칙으로 표현되어 전문가의 판단에 확실한 이론적인 근거를 제시할 수 있는 장점이 있으며, 특히 의사결정지원시스템으로 활용화 될 경우 매우 유용한 근거자료로 활용될 수 있다. 이러한 선물가격 예측모형은 정확성은 분석표본과 검증표본으로 나누어 검증표본에서 세가지 기본모형(평균보유비용모형, 일반균형모형, 인공신경망 모형)과 각 모형의 귀납적 학습방법 모형의 다른 3가지 어휘표현방법 3가지를 모형별로 비교 분석하였다. 분석결과 인공신경망모형은 상당한 예측력을 갖고 있는 것으로 판명되었으며, 특히 CART를 기반으로 한 일상어휘 기반의 선물가격예측 모형은 예측력이 높은 것으로 나타났다.

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