• Title/Summary/Keyword: 유추 예측

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The hierarchical structures of cause-and-effect relationships on the profit factors in overseas construction projects (해외건설공사 수익성 영향인자의 계층구조 및 사레적용에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Seung-Heon;Sun, Seung-Min;Park, Sang-Hyuk;Jung, Do-Young
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.64-76
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    • 2006
  • Korea's overseas construction industry has been rather depressed by the weakened profitability as well as the sharp decrease of the market shares due to the lack of international competitiveness and the declined international market. There exist a lot of various risks in performing the overseas construction, and especially EPC projects, which entail complicated process from different parts, also require a sophisticated procurement and management skill. Subsequently, to survive in the competitive international market, we need to establish strategies to select potentially profitable projects at the initial stage of bidding process and to mitigate the high degree of risk exposure through contract negotiation and its adjustment. This research discusses the trend of environment in international construction markets. Then, it identifies the key factors that affect the profitability significantly through the structured surveys from 59 actual overseas projects, and it analyzes the key factors by using statistical methods. This research provides the profitability evaluation bases, with which overseas construction participants can forecast and analyze the risk more systematically, by eliciting profit-influencing factors using the result of statistical analysis, literature review and structuring their cause-and-effect relationships. The profitability casual hierarchy structure describes the profitability factors' hierarchy in details and their interrelationships. It also enables us to find out critical factors directly related to profitability aggravation through a qualitative and quantitative analysis. Ultimately, with this hierarchy structure as the base, the research will suggest how to develop the quantitative profitability forecasting model.

Comparison of Carbonaceous Sediment Oxygen Demand in Lake Paldang and Lake Chungju (팔당호와 충주호 퇴적물의 탄소성 산소요구량 비교)

  • Shin, Yu-Na;Park, Hae-Kyung;Lee, Sang-Won;Kong, Dong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.439-448
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the seasonal variations of sediment oxygen demand (SOD) in Lake Paldang and Lake Chungju of the Han River system and to suggest SOD values as parameters for the water quality prediction models of two lakes. SOD was measured at laboratory using sediment collected at 2 sites in Lake Paldang from June to November and at 4 sites in Lake Chungju from May to November in 2005, respectively. It was found from the laboratory test that the SOD in Lake Paldang ranged from 337.8 to 881.0 mg $O_2m^{-2}d^{-1}$ and in Lake Chungju ranged from 143.0 to 969.1 mg $O_2m^{-2}d^{-1}$. The SOD of Lake Paldang showed similar variations to the content of organic matter of sediment. The SOD of Lake Chungju was positively correlated with temperature (r=0.78, p<0.01), $PO_4-P(r=0.79,\;p<0.01)$, TP (r=0.55, p<0.05), DTP (r=0.55, p<0.05), $NO_3-N$ (r=(0.72, p<0.01) of hypolimnetic water. These results indicate that the SOD of Lake Paldang was affected by the content and origin of organic matter of sediment and the SOD of Lake Chungju was closely correlated with physical and chemical factors.

The Loads and Biogeochemical Properties of Riverine Carbon (하천 탄소의 유출량과 생지화학적 특성)

  • Oh, Neung-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.245-257
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    • 2016
  • Although rivers cover only 0.5% of the total land area on the Earth, they are windows that show the integrated effects of watershed biogeochemistry. Studies on the loads and properties of riverine carbon have been conducted because they are directly linked with drinking water quality, and because regional or global net ecosystem production (NEP) can be overestimated, unless riverine carbon loads are subtracted. Globally, ${\sim}0.8-1.5Pg\;yr^{-1}$ and ${\sim}0.62-2.1Pg\;yr^{-1}$ of carbon are transported from terrestrial ecosystems to the ocean via rivers and from inland waters to the atmosphere, respectively. Concentrations, ${\delta}^{13}C$, and fluorescence spectra of riverine carbon have been investigated in South Korea to understand the spatiotemporal changes in the sources. Precipitation as well as land use/land cover can strongly influence the composition of riverine carbon, thus shifting the ratios among DIC, DOC, and POC, which could affect the concentrations, loads, and the degradability of adsorbed organic and inorganic toxic materials. A variety of analyses including $^{14}C$ and high resolution mass spectroscopy need to be employed to precisely define the sources and to quantify the degradability of riverine carbon. Long-term data on concentrations of major ions including alkalinity and daily discharge have been used to show direct evidence of ecosystem changes in the US. The current database managed by the Korean government could be improved further by integrating the data collected by individual researchers, and by adding the major components ions including DIC, DOC, and POC into the database.

Analysis of Water Quality Variation by Lowering of Water Level in Gangjeong-Goryong Weirin Nakdong River (낙동강 강정고령보 수위저하 운영에 따른 수질 변동특성 분석)

  • Park, Dae-Yeon;Park, Hyung-Seok;Kim, Sung-Jin;Chung, Se-Woong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.245-262
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    • 2019
  • The objectives of this study were to construct a three-dimensional water quality model (EFDC) for the river reach between Chilgok Weir and Gangjeong-Goryong Weir (GGW) located in Nakdong River, and evaluate the effect of hydraulic changes, such as water level and flow velocity, on the control of water quality and algae biomass. After calibration, the model accurately simulated the temporal changes of the upper and lower water temperatures that collected every 10 minutes, and appropriately reproduced changes in organic matter, nitrogen, phosphorus, and cyanobacteria. However, the simulated values were overestimated for the diatoms and green algae cell density, possibly due to the uncertainties of the parameters associated with algae metabolism and the lack of zooplankton predation function in the simulations. As a result of scenario simulation of running the water level of GGW from EL. 19.44 m to EL. 14.90 m (4.54 m drop), Chl-a and algae cell density decreased significantly.In particular,the cyanobacteria on the surface layer, which causes algal bloom, declined by 56.1% in the low water level scenario compared to the existing management level. The results of this study are in agreement with the previous studies that maintenance of critical flow velocity is effective for controlling cyanobacteria, and imply that hydraulic control such as decrease of water level and residence time in GGW is an alternative to limit the overgrowth of algae.

Predicting Concentrations of Soil Pollutants and Mapping Using Machine Learning Algorithms (기계학습을 통한 토양오염물질 농도 예측 및 분포 매핑)

  • Kang, Hyewon;Park, Sang Jin;Lee, Dong Kun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.214-225
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    • 2022
  • This study emphasized the soil of environmental impact assessment to devise measures to minimize the negative impact of project implementation on the environment. As a series of efforts for impact assessment procedures, a national inventory-based database was established for urban development projects, and three machine learning model performance evaluation as well as soil pollutant concentration distribution mapping were conducted. Here, nine soil pollutants were mapped to the metropolitan area of South Korea using the Random Forest model, which showed the best performance. The results of this study found that concentrations of Zn, F, and Cd were relatively concerned in Seoul, where urbanization is the most active. In addition, in the case of Hg and Cr6+, concentrations were detected below the standard, which was derived from a lack of pollutants such as industrial and industrial complexes that affect contents of heavy metals. A significant correlation between land cover and pollutants was inferred through the spatial distribution mapping of soil pollutants. Through this, it is expected that efficient soil management measures for minimizing soil pollution and planning decisions regarding the location of the project site can be established.

High-Frequency Bottom Loss Measured at Near-Normal Incidence Grazing Angle in Jinhae Bay (진해만에서 측정된 높은 수평입사각에서의 고주파 해저면 반사손실)

  • La, Hyoung-Sul;Park, Chi-Hyung;Cho, Sung-Ho;Choi, Jee-Woong;Na, Jung-Yul;Yoon, Kwan-Seob;Park, Kyung-ju;Park, Joung-Soo
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.223-228
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    • 2010
  • High-frequency bottom loss measurements for grazing angle of $82^{\circ}$ in frequency range 17-40 kHz were made in Jinhae bay in the southern part of Korea. Observations of bottom loss showed the strong variation as a function of frequency, which were compared to the predicted values using two-layered sediment reflection model. The geoacoustic parameters including sound speed, density and attenuation coefficient for the second sediment layer were predicted from the empirical relations with the mean grain size obtained from sediment core analysis. The geoacoustic parameters for the surficial sediment layer were inverted using Monte Carlo inversion algorithm. A sensitivity study for the geoacoustic parameters showed that the thickness of surficial sediment layer was most sensitive to the variation of the bottom loss.

Development of Empirical Fragility Function for High-speed Railway System Using 2004 Niigata Earthquake Case History (2004 니가타 지진 사례 분석을 통한 고속철도 시스템의 지진 취약도 곡선 개발)

  • Yang, Seunghoon;Kwak, Dongyoup
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.11
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    • pp.111-119
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    • 2019
  • The high-speed railway system is mainly composed of tunnel, bridge, and viaduct to meet the straightness needed for keeping the high speed up to 400 km/s. Seismic fragility for the high-speed railway infrastructure can be assessed as two ways: one way is studying each element of infrastructure analytically or numerically, but it requires lots of research efforts due to wide range of railway system. On the other hand, empirical method can be used to access the fragility of an entire system efficiently, which requires case history data. In this study, we collect the 2004 MW 6.6 Niigata earthquake case history data to develop empirical seismic fragility function for a railway system. Five types of intensity measures (IMs) and damage levels are assigned to all segments of target system for which the unit length is 200 m. From statistical analysis, probability of exceedance for a certain damage level (DL) is calculated as a function of IM. For those probability data points, log-normal CDF is fitted using MLE method, which forms fragility function for each damage level of exceedance. Evaluating fragility functions calculated, we observe that T=3.0 spectral acceleration (SAT3.0) is superior to other IMs, which has lower standard deviation of log-normal CDF and low error of the fit. This indicates that long-period ground motion has more impacts on railway infrastructure system such as tunnel and bridge. It is observed that when SAT3.0 = 0.1 g, P(DL>1) = 2%, and SAT3.0 = 0.2 g, P(DL>1) = 23.9%.

Comparison of Dose Distributions Calculated by Anisotropic Analytical Algorithm and Pencil Beam Convolution Algorithm at Tumors Located in Liver Dome Site (간원개에 위치한 종양에 대한 Anisotropic Analyticalal Algorithm과 Pencil Beam Convolution 알고리즘에 따른 전달선량 비교)

  • Park, Byung-Do;Jung, Sang-Hoon;Park, Sung-Ho;Kwak, Jeong-Won;Kim, Jong-Hoon;Yoon, Sang-Min;Ahn, Seung-Do
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.106-113
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the variation of radiation dose distribution for liver tumor located in liver dome and for the interest organs(normal liver, kidney, stomach) with the pencil beam convolution (PBC) algorithm versus anisotropic Analyticalal algorithm (AAA) of the Varian Eclipse treatment planning system, The target volumes from 20 liver cancer patients were used to create treatment plans. Treatment plans for 10 patients were performed in Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) plan and others were performed in 3 Dimensional Conformal Radiation Therapy (3DCRT) plan. dose calculation was recalculated by AAA algorithm after dose calculation was performed by PBC algorithm for 20 patients. Plans were optimized to 100% of the PTV by the Prescription Isodose in Dose Calculation with the PBC algorithm. Plans were recalculated with the AAA, retaining identical beam arrangements, monitor units, field weighting and collimator condition. In this study, Total PTV was to be statistically significant (SRS: p=0.018, 3DCRT: p=0.006) between PBC and AAA algorithm. and in the case of PTV, ITV in liver dome, plans for 3DCRT were to be statistically significant respectively (p=0.013, p=0.024). normal liver and kidney were to be statistically significant (p=0.009, p=0.037). For the predictive index of dose variation, CVF ratio was to be statistically significant for PTV in the liver dome versus PTV (SRS r=0.684, 3DCRT r=0.732, p<0.01) and CVF ratio for Tumor size was to be statistically significant (SRS r=-0.193, p=0.017, 3DCRT r=0.237, p=0.023).

Ecological Buffer Analysis of Western DMZ and Vicinity using Logistic Function Derived from TVI-Distance Curve (TVI-거리함수를 이용한 서부 DMZ 및 민통지역의 생태적 보전폭원 조사)

  • Kim, Sang-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2006
  • The DMZ is a 248km long thin green line which has various landscapes of fields, hills and mountains. This study focused on western part of DMZ and vicinity which consist of abandoned rice paddy, wetlands and fields. The main purpose of this study is to detect the vegetation vitality from the western part of MDL to DMZ vicinity and identify and quantify ecological buffer(ecotone) width adopting logistic function derived from 'Vegetation Index-distance curve' using an Landsat ETM+ image acquired on June of 2002. Green leaf vegetation was quantified to identify the ecotone buffer in western DMZ and vicinity(civilian control area: CCA) using Transformed Vegetation Index(TVI) which is one of common measurement among various indices. Vegetation measurement from Military Demarcation Line(MDL) to vicinity area was investigated at 500m intervals to 10kms of southern and northern part of western DMZ and vicinity. The Logistic function models the sigmoid curve of growth with three stages of growth of initial competition and maturity. In the TVI-distance logistic curve, the maturity is high vegetation vitality, the competition is vitality changing, and the initial is low vitality. In the TVI-distance curve, maturity area of high TVI value is core area for ecological conservation, and the competition area between inflection points can be an ecotone(ecological buffer). In case of southern part, maximum TVI value is 221.92 and minimum is 207.16, and maximum TVI of northen part is 215.32 and minimum is 188.35. That means forest devastation of north Korean part of DMZ and vicinity is severer than that of south Korea. The width of core area for ecological conservation is 2,311m, and ecotone in the southern part is 5,339m, so minimum width from MDL for ecological conservation can be computed as 7,651m. In case of Northern part, the width of core area is 1,841m, and ecotone buffer is 5,014m, so ecological conservation width can be estimated as 6,855m. In case of northen part, width of estimated core area is less than that of DMZ width, which means ecological disturbance is very severe in northern part of western DMZ.

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Development of a Feature Catalogue for Marine Geographic Information (해양 지리정보 피쳐 카탈로그 작성에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Sang-Ki;Yun, Suk-Bum
    • Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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    • v.6 no.1 s.11
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    • pp.101-117
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    • 2004
  • Standards are essential to facilitate the efficient use of GIS data. International Standards such as ISO TC211's 19100 series and various technical specifications from OpenGIS Consortium are some of the examples of efforts to maintain the interoperability among GIS applications. Marine GIS is no exception to this rule and in this context. developing standards for marine GIS is also in urgent needs. Using the same meaning and definition for the features commonly found in marine GIS applications is one of the ways to increase the interoperability among systems. One of the key requirements for maintaining the standard meanings for features is to build a common feature catalogue. This paper examines the concept of feature catalogue and describe the ways in which the feature catalogue can be organized. To identify the common features found in various marine GIS applications, a comprehensive search has been made to collect and analyze the features used in various applications. To maintain the interoperability with the National GIS (NGIS) system, the features used in various NGIS applications have been analyzed as well. The result of these analyses are used to create a comprehensive list of common features for marine GIS. This paper then explains the common feature catalogue for marine GIS and the provides the appropriate classification and coding systems for the common features. In addition, a registration tool for registering the common features into the standard registry has been developed in this study. This Web-based tool can be used to input features into the feature catalogue by various applications and also to maintain a standard-compliant feature catalogue by standard agencies.

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