• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.259-272
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• 2023

This study set up 49 survey areas with an area of about 400 square meters in Abies koreana natural habitat to identify the species composition and vegetation structure of the A. koreana forest in the Mt. Jiri Nation Park, conducted field surveys using phytosociological methods, and performed the cluster analysis using the Two-Way Indicator Species Analysis (TWINSPAN) and Table manipulation. Subsequently, species composition analysis using the importance value, species diversity analysis, DBH analysis, sapling analysis, and similarity analysis was conducted by each cluster type. The cluster analysis classified the A. koreana forest in Mt. Jiri into five clusters, A, B, C, D, and E. The forest was divided into two clusters, Magnolia sieboldii-Dryopteris crassirhizoma-Sasa borealis and Betula ermanii-Solidago virgaurea-Calamagrostis arundinacea. The former was classified as type A and B by Cornus controversa-Hydrangea macrophylla, and the latter was classified as type E, a typical community, and a Sorbus commixta-Rhododendron mucronulatum cluster. And the S. commixta-R. mucronulatum cluster was divided into C type and D type by Picea jezoensis-Ligularia fischeri and Ainsliaea acerifolia. Through vegetation analysis, the importance value of A. koreana, Quercus mongolica, Acer pseudosieboldianum, Fraxinus sieboldiana, and B. ermanii was highly expressed in the A. koreana forest in Mt. Jiri. Regarding species diversity, the results were similar to those reported in other studies of A. koreana forests in Mt. Jiri. The analysis of diameter at breast height (DBH) showed that A. koreana dominated all layers, and the growth of saplings was also good, indicating that the dominance of A. koreana is expected to continue for a while. However, when considering the value of biodiversity that is expected to increase and threats caused by climate change, systematic preservation and management are required to respond to various threats based on continuous monitoring.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of Ginseng Research
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.111-131
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• 2002

Korean ginseng (Panax ginseng C.A. Meyer) received a great deal of attention from the Orient and West as a tonic agent, health food and/or alternative herbal therapeutic agent. However, controversy with respect to scientific evidence on pharmacological effects especially, evaluation of clinical efficacy and the methodological approach still remains to be solved. Author reviewed those articles published since 1980 when pharmacodynamic studies on ginseng have intensively started. Special concern was paid on metabolic disorders including diabetes mellitus, circulatory disorders, malignant tumor, sexual dysfunction, and physical and mental performance to give clear information to those who are interested in pharmacological study of ginseng and to promote its clinical use. With respect to chronic diseases such as diabetes mellitus, atherosclerosis, high blood pressure, malignant disorders, and sexual disorders, it seems that ginseng plays preventive and restorative role rather than therapeutics. Particularly, ginseng plays a significant role in ameliorating subjective symptoms and preventing quality of life from deteriorating by long term exposure of chemical therapeutic agents. Also it seems that the potency of ginseng is mild, therefore it could be more effective when used concomitantly with conventional therapy. Clinical studies on the tonic effect of ginseng on work performance demonstrated that physical and mental dysfunction induced by various stresses are improved by increasing adaptability of physical condition. However, the results obtained from clinical studies cannot be mentioned in the indication, which are variable upon the scientist who performed those studies. In this respect, standardized ginseng product and providing planning of the systematic clinical research in double-blind randomized controlled trials are needed to assess the real efficacy for proposing ginseng indication. Pharmacological mode of action of ginseng has not yet been fully elucidated. Pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic researches reveal that the role of ginseng not seem to be confined to a given single organ. It has been known that ginseng plays a beneficial role in such general organs as central nervous, endocrine, metabolic, immune systems, which means ginseng improves general physical and mental conditons. Such multivalent effect of ginseng can be attributed to the main active component of ginseng,ginsenosides or non-saponin compounds which are also recently suggested to be another active ingredients. As is generally the similar case with other herbal medicines, effects of ginseng cannot be attributed as a given single compound or group of components. Diversified ingredients play synergistic or antagonistic role each other and act in harmonized manner. A few cases of adverse effect in clinical uses are reported, however, it is not observed when standardized ginseng products are used and recommended dose was administered. Unfavorable interaction with other drugs has also been suggested, which the information on the products and administered dosage are not available. However, efficacy, safety, interaction or contraindication with other medicines has to be more intensively investigated in order to promote clinical application of ginseng. For example, daily recommended doses per day are not agreement as 1-2g in the West and 3-6 g in the Orient. Duration of administration also seems variable according to the purpose. Two to three months are generally recommended to feel the benefit but time- and dose-dependent effects of ginseng still need to be solved from now on. Furthermore, the effect of ginsenosides transformed by the intestinal microflora, and differential effect associated with ginsenosides content and its composition also should be clinically evaluated in the future. In conclusion, the more wide-spread use of ginseng as a herbal medicine or nutraceutical supplement warrants the more rigorous investigations to assess its effacy and safety. In addition, a careful quality control of ginseng preparations should be done to ensure an acceptable standardization of commercial products.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.41 no.5
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• pp.610-618
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• 2008

Background: There are various treatment modalities for atherosclerotic arterial obstructive disease at the lower limbs, for example, conservative physical therapy, medication, operation etc. Yet it has been established that an arterial bypass operation is the most effective treatment. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of arterial bypass operation within our experience and to determine the indicators of treatment. Material and Method: Ninety six patients received arterial bypass operation for atherosclerotic arterial obstructive disease from June 2002 to April 2006. We evaluated the feasibility of arterial bypass operation based on the improvement of symptoms and the ankle-brachial index (ABI) and the surgical outcomes, as based on the complications, the amputation rates and the patency rates. We also assessed the possible risk factors such as gender, age, a smoking history, co-morbidities, the anastomotic sites, the graft size and the graft type. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of the patients. The total mean follow-up period was $29.4{\pm}13.1$ months. Result: The mean age was $65.95{\pm}9.61$ and there were 88 male patients. The most common clinical manifestation was ischemic resting pain in the lower extremities. The underlying combined diseases were hypertension (61%), diabetes (43%), cardiac problems (35%) and smoking (91.7%). The most frequent site of arterial obstruction was the superficial femoral artery (44 cases, 40%). A femoropopliteal artery bypass operation with a Polytetrafluoroethylene(PTFE) synthetic graft was done in 44 cases (40%) and the great saphenous vein graft was used in 11 cases. The postoperative ABI increased significantly from $0.30{\pm}0.11$ preoperatively to $0.63{\pm}0.11$ (p<0.001) postoperatively. In 8 cases, amputations above the ankle level were necessary. The graft patency rates were 86.4% and 68.0% after 1 and 3 years, respectively. There were 29 cases (30.21%) of patency failure; the male gender, smokers and hypertension were significantly more frequent in the failure group. Of these, hypertension was the most powerful risk factor (p=0.042). Conclusion: The arterial bypass operation is an effective treatment modality for controlling the symptoms such as pain and claudication, and for preventing major amputations for the patients with atherosclerotic arterial obstructive disease. This study suggests quitting smoking, strict blood pressure control, selection of an appropriate graft, regular outpatient follow up and proper medication would offer higher patency rates and more favorable outcomes.