• Title/Summary/Keyword: 유동성 위기

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A Study on the Measurement and Effect Factors of Productivity of the Korean Ocean Carriers (금융위기 이후 국적 외항선사의 생산성 측정과 영향요인에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Hyung-Sik;Ahn, Ki-Myung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.338-346
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    • 2020
  • In this study, we first measured the Malmquist productivity index by DEA among the Korean ocean carriers. Second, it was intended to present measures to improve productivity by identifying the influence and discriminating power between productivity and the major financial ratios (profitability, financial stability, liquidity, efficiency and value-added productivity). Compared to 2017, there are 11 more shipping carriers with decline in productivity (MPI) than those with an increase in 2018. The increase in productivity is attributed to an increase in the Technology Change Index (TCI) affected by the external environment. There is strong significant correlation between the productivity (MPI) and the management efficiency (CRS). Additionally, the TECI (TECHI) index of the technological efficiency changes from internal factors of the shipping carrier is significantly higher than that of the efficient shipping carrier. This is because of the differences in scale efficiency. The ratio of charter cost/sales is also lower than that of the carriers with high productivity (0.17) and with low productivity (0.21). With 7% of the shipping carrier with MPI>1, only 1% of MPI <1 is found to have a significant impact on its productivity.

The Empirical Study on the Interface Between Science and Technology (과학과 기술의 연계에 관한 실증적 연구)

  • 박상인;조성복;김정화;정선양
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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    • 2003.06a
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    • pp.116-135
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    • 2003
  • 우리나라는 최근에 IMF 에 재정적 지원을 요청하는 상황이 계기가 되어 국가경쟁력과 삶의 질 측면에 상당한 관심을 가지게 되었다. 이러한 환경변화는 사회저변에 효율성을 강조하는 풍토를 확산시키고, 위기상황의 재발방지를 위해 그 원인을 분석하고 대안을 마련하는 등 사회 전반적으로 각고의 노력을 촉발시키게 하는 계기가 되었다. 이러한 논의들 중에 눈에 띄는 한가지는 과학과 기술사이의 관계에 관한 논쟁인데, 최근에 활발히 논의되고 있는 과학과 기술사이의 연계는 미국을 중심으로 많은 연구가 진행되고 있으며, 이러한 연구들은 대체적으로 과학과 기술사이에는 상당한 정도의 상관관계가 있고, 이 둘 사이는 서로 상호작용하면서 경제성장을 이끄는 역할을 한다고 주장하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 논의들을 국내에 적용시킴으로써 해외의 사례가 우리에게 시사점이 될 수 있는지 체계적으로 분석하려고 시도하였다. 과학과 기술사이의 연관성을 알아보기 위하여, 과학의 연구성과를 대변하는 대용치로 SCI논문을 사용하였고, 이러한 연구성과가 얼마만큼 사회에 파급되어 산업화 또는 상업화되었는지를 측정하기 위해 특허출원수를 추출하여, 연구의 목적에 맞게 modify 하는 과정을 거쳤으며, 추세분석과, 상관관계분석 그리고 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 본 연구는 실증분석을 통하여, 과학과 기술사이에는 일부 소수의 영역을 제외하고 매우 높은 상관관계가 있음을 발견하였고, 우리나라의 주력산업이었던 기계분야의 쇠퇴를 실증적으로 확인 할 수 있었으며, 정부의 적극적인 지원아래 폭발적으로 성장하였던 IT분야의 증가추세를 확인할 수 있었다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 국가경쟁력의 근간이 되는 연구개발부문에 경제논리를 배제하는 지속적인 투자를 제언함으로써, 국가경쟁력 제고와 삶의 질 향상이라는 두 마리 토끼를 잡을 수 있는 방안은 과학과 기술의 유기적인 연계에 있음을 밝히고 있다. 건설을 위한 정책적 시사점과 동북아 연구개발정보 Portal 및 APEC APGrid 연구망 등의 구체적인 정보인프라 구축방안을 도출하였다.술 주기를 도출하고, 산업 내 평균 권리 청구 항목 수를 이용하여 각 산업의 기술 범위를 비교하였다. 각각의 동적 분석을 통해 시간에 따른 변화 양상이 관찰하였고, ANOVA 분석을 이용하여 통계적 유의성을 검증하였다. 본 연구는 현재의 기술 패러다임 내에서 Pavitt이 제시한 산업 분류의 근거를 보충 설명하였고 특허 정보를 이용하여 기술혁신의 산업별 유형에 대한 폭넓은 분석방법을 제시하였다.별 시간대별 효과분석을 통하여 정책의 시행여부가 결정되어야 할 것이다. 한편, 화물전용차선의 설치로 인한 물류비용의 절감을 보다 효과적으로 달성하기 위해서는 종합류류 전산망의 시급한 구축과 함께 화물차의 적재율을 높이고 공차율을 낮출 수 있는 운송체계의 수립이 필요한 것으로 판단된다. 그라나 이러한 화물전용차선의 효과는 단기적인 치유책일 수밖에 없기 때문에 물류유통 시설의 확충을 위한 사회간접자본의 구축을 서둘러 시행하여야 할 것이다.으로 처리한 Machine oil, Phenthoate EC 및 Trichlorfon WP는 비교적 약효가 낮았다.>$^{\circ}$E/$\leq$30$^{\circ}$NW 단열군이 연구지역 내에서 지하수 유동성이 가장 높은 단열군으로 추정된다. 이러한 사실은 3개 시추공을 대상으로 실시한 시추공 내 물리검층과 정압주입시험에서도 확인된다.. It was resulted from increase of weight of single cocoon. "Manta"2.5ppm produced 22.2kg of cocoon. It is equal to 9% increase in index, as compared to that

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A Study on the Development of the Cash-Flow Forecasting Model in Apartment Business factoring tn Housing Payment Collection Pattern and Payment Condition for Construction Expences (분양대금 납부패턴과 공사대금 지급방식 변화를 고려한 공동주택사업의 현금흐름 예측모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim Soon-Young;Kim Kyoon-Tai;Han Choong-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.353-358
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    • 2001
  • Since the financial crisis broke out, liquidity has become the critical issue in housing construction industry. In order to secure liquidity, it is prerequisite to precisely forecast cash flow. However, construction companies have failed to come up with a systematic process to manage and forecast cash flow. Until now, companies have solely relied on the prediction of profits and losses, which is carried out as they review business feasibility. To obtain more accurate cash flow forecast model, practical pattern of payments should be taken into account. In this theory, basic model that analyzes practical housing payment collection pattern resulting from prepayments and arrears is described. This model is to complement conventional cash flow forecast scheme in the phase of business feasibility review. Analysis result on final losses in cash that occur as a result of prepayment and arrears is considered in this model. Additionally, in the estimation of construction cost in the phase of business feasibility review, real construction prices instead of official prices are applied to enhance accuracy of cash outflow forecast. The proportion of payment made by a bill and changes in payment date caused by rescheduling of a bill are also factored in to estimate cash outflow. This model would contribute to achieving accurate cash flow forecast that better reflect real situation and to enhancing efficiency in capital management by giving a clear picture with regard to the demand and supply timing of capital.

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A study on the relationship between the onshore and offshore Chinese Yuan markets (중국 역내·외 위안화 현물시장간의 상호 연계성 연구)

  • Lee, Woosik;Chun, Heuiju
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1387-1395
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    • 2015
  • Since the financial crisis of 2008, the People's Republic of China has aggressively been pursuing the internationalization of the Chinese Yuan or Renminbi. In this regard, rapidly increasing use of the Chinese Yuan in the onshore and offshore markets are important milestones. This paper analyzes relationship between the onshore and offshore Chinese Yuan spot markets. Major findings of this paper are as follows : First, there is full feedback relationship between the Onshore and Offshore Chinese Yuan Markets. Second, the difference between the yuan's offshore exchange rate and the onshore was getting tight. Third, the offshore Yuan market affects on the onshore market based on the empirical tests.

Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

Fund Flow and Market Risk (펀드플로우와 시장위험)

  • Chung, Hyo-Youn;Park, Jong-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.169-204
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the dynamic relationship between fund flow and market risk at the aggregate level and explores whether sudden sharp changes in fund flow (fund run) can cause a systemic risk in the Korean financial markets. We use daily and weekly data and regression and VAR analysis. Main results of the paper are as follows: First, in the stock market, a concurrent and a lagged unexpected fund flows have a positive relationship with market volatility. A positive shock in fund flow predicts an increase in stock market volatility. In the bond market, an unexpected fund flow has a negative relationship with the default risk premium, but a positive relationship with the term premium. And an unexpected fund flow of the money market fund has a negative relationship with the liquidy risk, but the explanatory power is very low. Second, for examining whether changes in fund flow induce a systemic risk, we construct a spillover index based on the forecast error variance decomposition of VAR model. A spillover index represents that how much the shock in fund flow can explain the change of market risk in a market. In general, explanatory powers from spillover indexes are so fluctuant and low. In the stock market, the impact of shocks in fund flow on market risk is relatively high and persistent during the period from the end of 2007 to 2008, which is the subprime-mortgage crisis period. In bond market, since the end of 2008, the impact of shocks in fund flow spreads to default risk continually, while in the money market, such a systematic effect doesn't take place. The persistent patterns of spillover effect appearing around a certain period in the stock market and the bond market suggest that the shock to the unexpected fund flow may increase the market risk and can be a cause of systemic risk in the financial markets. However, summarizing the results of regression and VAR model analysis, and considering the very low explanatory power of spillover index analysis, we can conclude that changes in fund flow have a very limited power in explaining changes in market risk and it is not very likely to induce the systemic risk by a fund run in the Korean financial markets.

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