• Journal of Music and Human Behavior
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.43-60
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• 2011

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of Pansori creative therapy focusing on a vocal sound on the self-efficacy of older adults living alone. Participants were 6 aged people who were living alone and who attended S Welfare Center for aged people. Pansori creative programs were provided twice a week for 6 weeks. The program consisted of 5 stages that had 50 minutes for each section. Quantitative data were collected from a pre-and post-self-efficacy scale (Park, Gyung-min, 1994) in order to confirm the changes in self-efficacy of the participants. Results showed statistical significance in self-efficacy scores (p < .05). In addition, positive verbal comments on decreased performance anxiety were found from participants during interviews conducted after the completion of Pansori creative program.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.163-171
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• 2017

With the advance of function of smart phone system and internet services, mobile trade grows more popular in the area of e-business or banking. These environmental changes, it makes the needs of authorized certificates. Authorized certificate is not only important in these days but also future society. In 2015, 27 millions of Korean people used public key certificate, but most of them does not know the details on the public key certificate. Therefore, in this paper, we explain and investigate the characteristics on the public certificate and explain the relation ship between authorized certificate and public key encrytion. By investigating several papers, internet data, newspapers and books, we found the historical changes, substantial aspects, the encryption systems on the authorized certificate. Also we study the pros and cons of authorized certificate. Finally we predict the number of issued authorized certificate for the future society based on nonparametric statistical method.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.11-20
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• 2017

In this paper, we introduced linear spatial time series (space-time autoregressive and moving average model) and nonlinear spatial time series (space-time bilinear model). Also we estimated the parameters by Kalman Filter method and made comparative studies of power of forecast in the final model. We proposed several weight matrices such as equal proportion allocation, reciprocal proportion between distances, and proportion of population sizes. For applications, we collected Mumps data at Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2001 until August 2008. We compared three approaches of weight matrices using the Mumps data. Finally, we also decided the most effective model based on sum of square forecast error.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.79-87
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• 2011

A spatial time series model was used for analyzing the method of spatial time series (not the ARIMA model that is popular for analyzing spatial time series) by using chicken pox data which is a highly contagious disease and grid data due to ARIMA not reflecting the spatial processes. Time series model contains a weighting matrix, because that spatial time series model influences the time variation as well as the spatial location. The weighting matrix reflects that the more geographically contiguous region has the higher spatial dependence. It is hypothesized that the weighting matrix gives neighboring areas the same influence in the study of the spatial time series model. Therefore, we try to present the conclusion with a weighting matrix in a way that gives the same weight to existing neighboring areas in the study of the suitability of the STARMA model, spatial time series model and STBL model, in the comparative study of the predictive power for statistical inference, and the results. Furthermore, through the Kalman-Filter method we try to show the superiority of the Kalman-Filter method through a parameter assumption and the processes of prediction.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.31-38
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• 1999

A real-time dose assessment system(FADAS : Following Accident Dose Assessment System) has been developed for the real-time accident consequence assessment against a nuclear accident. Field tracer experiment near Younggwang nuclear power plant was performed to improve the accuracy of developed system and to parameterize the site-specific parameters into the FADAS. The mean values and turbulent components of wind profile obtained through field experiment have been reflected to FADAS with site-specific conditions. The simulated results of diffusion model agreed well with the measured data through tracer experiment. The developed system is being used as a basic module of emergency preparedness system in Korea. The diffusion model which can be reflected site-specific parameters will be improved through field experiments continuously.

• Water for future
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.185-194
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• 1995

The objective of this study is to explore scale problem and to analyze the relations between scale and geomorphologic parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. Generally, measurement and calculation of geomorphologic parameters rely on and are sensitive to the resolution of source information available. Therefore, rainfall-runoff models using geomorphologic parameters should take account of the effects of the map scale used in their development. The derived rainfall-runoff model considering scale problem in this research is the GIUH type model, that is a basin IUH consisting of the channel network response and hillslope response. The cannel network response is computed by means of the diffusion analogy transformed from linearized St. Venant equation and hillslope response is calculated by 2-parameter gamma distribution function. Representing geomorphologic structure of the channel network and initial distribution of its response is width function. This width function is derived by fractal theory and Melton's law to consider scale problems and is weighted by the source location function (SLF) proposed in this research to increase the applicability.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.1155-1168
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• 2016

This paper considers a probability density estimation problem of climate values. In particular, we focus on estimating probability densities of summer extreme temperature over South Korea. It is known that the probability density of climate values at one location is similar to those at near by locations and one doesn't follow well known parametric distributions. To accommodate these properties, we use a mixture of conditional autoregressive species sampling model, which is a nonparametric Bayesian model with a spatial dependency. We apply the model to a dataset consisting of summer maximum temperature and minimum temperature over South Korea. The dataset is obtained from University of East Anglia.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.246-247
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• 2018

Since the routes within VTS areas include harbour limit of major ports, there are sections where the traffic volume increases and the routes are normally narrow according to the geographical conditions. In the case of ports and VTS areas located on the west coast of Korea, it is affected by strong current due to large tidal differences. In this paper, we propose a method to produce useful information according to the change of navigation environment by analyzing the characteristics of ship's movement according to tidal stream or current. The SVR seaway model, support vector regression, and grid search were conducted in order to extract models.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.347-351
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• 2012

본 연구는 기후변화로 인한 국내 낙동강 유역의 기온, 강수, 상대습도의 변동 경향을 파악하고자, 낙동강 본류의 상, 중, 하류 지역을 연구대상 지역으로 선정하여 분석을 실시하였다. 이를 위하여 기상요소인 평균, 최저, 최고 기온과 상대습도 및 강우 자료를 기상청의 관측 자료를 활용하여 수집하였다. 분석을 실시함에 있어서 연평균, 최고, 최저 기온과 연평균, 최고, 최저 상대습도를 분석하였으며, 강우량 관측 자료를 통해 총 강우량, 강우집중률, 일 최대강우량을 고려하였다. 분석방법은 기후변화로 인한 기상자료의 변동 경향을 파악하기 위하여 비모수적 경향성 검정인 Mann-Kendall Test, Hotelling-Pabst Test, Sen's Test 3가지의 검정방법을 사용하였으며, 표준정규변량의 크기를 통하여 변동 경향의 유의성을 비교해보았다. 또한, 각 요소별 관측 자료의 상위 10개, 하위 10개의 자료를 통하여 최근(1995~2011)과 과거(1973~1994)의 기상요소들을 비교하여 변동 특성을 파악하였다. 연구지역 중 낙동강 중류 지점에 위치하는 구미의 경우, 요소별 자료 중 연평균기온의 상위 9개의 자료가 최근 17년 이내에 포함되어 있으며, 연 최저 및 최고 기온의 6개의 자료가 포함되어 있어 기후온난화가 진행되고 있음을 확인하였다. 연 최저 상대습도의 경우 3가지 경향성 검정 방법을 통하여 과거자료에 비해 하강하는 추세를 보이고 있다. 강우자료 분석 결과 관측이 시작된 이래 연강수량 중 상위 10개의 자료에서 7개가 최근에 발생한 것으로 분석되었고, 일 최대강우량은 9개가 포함되어 있다. 위의 요소별 분석 결과 낙동강 유역의 연강수량 및 강우강도는 대체적으로 증가하고, 기온 또한 증가하는 등 기후 변화로 인한 지구온난화현상이 국내에서도 나타나는 것을 확인 할 수 있었다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.286-286
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• 2022

홍수피해를 최소화하기 위한 수공구조물의 적정 규모 결정을 위해 사용되는 홍수빈도분석에는 통계적 분석절차에 따른 불확실성이 포함된다. 따라서 불확실성이 포함된 범주 내에서 가장 적절한 설계홍수량(design flood)를 결정하는 과정은 수공구조물의 최종단계에서 중요하게 다루어져야 하는 부분이나 이를 제시한 연구는 많지 않다. 비용-편익 분석기법을 홍수빈도분석 절차에 도입하여 구성되는 총 기대비용함수(total expected cost function)는 설계홍수량 중 최적 설계홍수량(optimal design flood)를 결정하기 위한 새로운 접근방식이다. 이 절차는 UNCODE(UNcertainty COmpliant DEsign)로 명명되어 사용된 바 있으나, 국내에서는 아직 적용 결과가 소개되지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 UNCODE의 수학적 구성 절차를 소개함과 함께 북한강수계에 위치한 수력발전댐(화천댐, 춘천댐, 의암댐, 청평댐)의 년최대유입량을 사용하여 최적 설계홍수량을 산정하고 이 결과를 기존 홍수빈도분석 결과와 비교하였다. 불확실성이 고려된 총 기대비용함수로부터 확률분포함수들(Gumbel 및 GEV)의 모수를 추출하는 과정에서 Metropolis-Hastings 알고리즘을 사용하여 불확실성의 범위를 추정하였으며, 비용-편익 분석기법에 사용되는 비용 및 피해함수는 수학적 구성의 편의성을 위하여 1차 선형함수로 가정되었다. 4개의 발전용댐, 2개의 확률분포 및 2개의 재현기간에 대하여 최적 설계홍수량의 중앙값이 기존 홍수빈도분석 절차에 의해 산정된 설계홍수량보다 일정 정도 큰 값으로 산정됨을 알 수 있었다. 향후에는 본 연구에서 적용된 절차를 간단한 수식형태로 함수화하여 발전용댐 운영의 실무업무나 하천기본계획의 수립 등에 있어 비용-편익분석 기법의 적용성을 높이기 위한 연구가 진행될 필요가 있을 것으로 판단된다.