• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.313-362
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• 2013

중국의 위안화 국제화(지역화)는 중국경제의 성장 및 중국정부의 전략적, 정책적 지원에 따라 가속화되고 있다. 특히 최근 ASEAN과 중국 간 경제통합이 빠르게 진행됨에 따라 동남아시아 지역에서 중국 위안화의 유통이 확대되고 있다. 본 논문은 이러한 위안화 유통의 확대와 관련하여 위안화 국제화(지역화)가 동남아시아 국가들의 환율정책에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 한다. 동 지역에서 위안화의 유통의 확대(위안화 국제화)가 유의미하다면 달러화 대비 위안화 환율과 달러화 대비 동남아시아 개별국가통화 환율 간에 인과적 관계를 보일 것이다. 왜냐하면 환율정책의 중요한 목적 중 하나는 환율의 안정적 운영인데 환율결정에 있어 위안화의 비중이 크다면 그 만큼 달러화 대비 개별국가통화 간 환율의 영향도 커지기 때문이다. 본 논문은 이러한 가설을 바탕으로 두 환율변수 간 공적분 분석 등 계량분석을 통해 가설검정을 실시하였다. 분석 결과 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이전(2005.8~2008.6)에는 두 환율변수 간 동조화 현상이 나타나는데 비해 그 이후(2010.7~2012.6)는 비동조화 현상이 나타나는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 2010년 이후 유럽의 재정 위기 등 글로벌 경기침체로 인해 동남아시아 국가들의 환율 정책 우선순위가 환율의 안정적 운영에서 경기회복을 위한 수출증가 및 이를 위한 개별국가 통화의 환율절하로 전환하였음을 의미한다고 할 수 있다. 또한 중국과의 국경무역 등 경제적 영향이 상대적으로 큰 GMS(라오스, 미얀마, 베트남)국가들의 경우 그 외 아세안 7개국들에 비해 두 환율변수 간 동조화 현상이 강하게 나타나는 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 이들 국가들이 상대적으로 기타 국가들에 비해 위안화 국제화에 대한 민감도가 높다는 것을 의미한다. 향후 동남아시아 국가들의 경기가 회복되고 위안화의 국제화가 가속되면 두 환율 간 동조화 기조는 강화될 것으로 예상된다.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.349-368
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• 2011

The emergence of new multipolar world economy along with the predominant growth of emerging economies encourages these emerging countries to internationalize their currencies. Currently the discrepancy between qualification and status of international currency is easily observed, and the emerging market currencies are no doubt underestimated considering their share of the world's economic size and trade volume. This paper studies the determinant factors of currency internationalization for five key currencies (US Dollar, Yen, Euro, Pound, and Swiss Franc). The analysis shows economic size, trade volume, and the stability of price and exchange rate are most important. Based on this result, Chinese Yuan is forecast to become a new international currency in the near future. Therefore, Korea needs to preempt the issue of regional economic integration, and even currency integration, by taking into account the possibility of internationalized Yuan.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.61-78
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• 2010

The paper is basically attempted to reveal a possibility of monetary unification and setting an anchor currency in North East Asian economies such as South Korea, China, and Japan. The Cobb-Douglas utility function is tentatively built by a Walrasian economic framework. Korean Won(KRW) is represented for a numeraire in a structural model, and the estimation of a parameter is performed by 2SLS and GARCH-M models. Empirical evidence is found that not only monetary unification itself in this regime seems not to be practicable, but also setting an anchor currency by Chinese Yuan(CNY) or Japanese Yen(JPY) is also inappropriated due to the fact that the estimated parameter is not converged to a unity. Walrasian equilibria are enhanced by the convergence to a unity in the model. It also has to be mentioned that a number of necessary and sufficient conditions should be fulfilled prior to discuss a monetary unification in North East Asian economies. Instead, Asia currency unit(ACU) is more feasible in reality.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.19 no.11
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• pp.297-313
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• 2019

China's 'One Belt and One Load' is a national development strategy that aims to develop China and Eurasian Economic Area into a single economic Area by overland and sea routes. Thus, China's 'One Belt and One Load' construction will be a new engine for China and global economic development. At the same time, expected to have a significant impact on the international economic order and the enhancement the status of the Chinese economy. First of all, 'One Belt and One Load' will contribute to China's social stability by reducing the development gap between the East and West regions to some extent, as well as solving the problems of overcapacity and overproduction in China. Moreover, with a stable supply of energy resources, it will also contribute to the stable development of the Chinese economy. China's 'One Belt and One Load' will also enhance China's status by enhancing the level of Chinese influence and RMB in the international economy, in addition to the economic development of China and 'One Belt and One Load' consecutive countries. In particular, it will weaken the influence of the US, which has dominated the hegemony in the international community. Therefore, Korea, which maintains close economic relations with China, needs to prepare for countermeasures by closely monitoring the change in China's status as a result of China's 'One Belt and One Load' construction.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.113-140
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• 2016

This paper first extracts the main basis for the Middle-Income Trap(MIT) to apply these grounds to reality of the Chinese economy. And then confirmed crisis factors of China economy. Also discussed then the economic reforms of China in order to not fall into the MIT. After reviewing previous research extracted six factors the results will correspond to comply with the Chinese economy. Those are 'Over-investment', 'excess capacity' 'reduction of TFP continued,' 'disappearance and the aging of the population bonus', 'excessive debt and structural adjustment and financial instability of the company', 'income unequal expansion', 'low financial and information infrastructure accessibility', and 'low transparency index'. China's policy direction to avoid the MIT generally set properly, but proof that implementation process not easy, was appearing everywhere. After all, China economy should be modified now to a reforms of 'government failure' and promotion of function for ongoing restructuring system in the market. Because of the SDR incorporation from 2015, it is inevitable to face major constraints in the external aspects.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.3-20
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• 2017

Traditional co-integration analysis method is known to be difficult to clearly determine the relationship between the cointegrated variables. This study utilizes a fractional cointegation method and a causal analysis of time and frequency domain among the exchange rates of Korea, China and Japan. The results show that even though traditional cointegration methods did not clarify the existence of cointegration, exchange rates were fractionally cointegrated. Causal analysis of time domain and frequency domain provided somewhat different results, but the yen/dollar was useful for forecasting won/dollar and yuan/dollar. Proper use of causal analysis of frequency domain and fractional cointegration emthods may provide useful information that can not be explained from the traditional method.