• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.63-65
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• 2023

한국 경제에 근간이 되는 산업은 제조업이고, 그중 석유화학산업은 전량 원유를 수입하여 우리나라의 기술력으로 가공하여 재수출하는 전략적 성장 산업이다. 수많은 제조업의 원료가 되는 원유를 전량 해상운송을 통해 수입하는 우리나라는 변동성이 심한 유조선 운임 시장에 대해 기민하게 대응해야 한다. 유조선 운임 시장의 위기는 관련 해운회사의 위기에서 끝나지 않고 원유를 사용하는 산업에서부터 국민의 생활까지 영향을 미칠 수 있으므로, 본 연구에서 신호접근법을 활용한 조기경보모형을 제시했다. BDTI 운임지수를 활용하여 유조선 해운시장 위기를 정의하고, 38개의 거시경제, 금융, 원자재 지표 그리고 해운시장 데이터를 활용해 시차상관관계를 분석하여 유조선 해운시장 위기에 선행적으로 반응하는 종합선행지수를 도출했다. 연구 결과, 종합선행지수는 두 달 전 가장 높은 0.499의 시차상관계수 값을 가졌으며, 5개월 전부터 유의미한 상관계수 값을 나타냈다. 더불어 QPS 값은 0.13으로 위기 예측에 대해 높은 정확성을 지니는 것으로 검증됐다.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.167-173
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• 2023

The manufacturing industry is the backbone of the Korean economy. Among them, the petrochemical industry is a strategic growth industry, which makes a profit through reexports based on eminent technology in South Korea which imports all of its crude oil. South Korea imports whole amount of crude oil, which is the raw material for many manufacturing industries, by sea transportation. Therefore, it must respond swiftly to a highly volatile tanker freight market. This study aimed to make an early warning model of crude oil shipping market using a signal approach. The crisis of crude oil shipping market is defined by BDTI. The overall leading index is made of 38 factors from macro economy, financial data, and shipping market data. Only leading correlation factors were chosen to be used for the overall leading index. The overall leading index had the highest correlation coefficient factor of 0.499 two months ago. It showed a significant correlation coefficient five months ago. The QPS value was 0.13, which was found to have high accuracy for crisis prediction. Furthermore, unlike other previous time series forecasting model studies, this study quantitatively approached the time lag between economic crisis and the crisis of the tanker ship market, providing workers and policy makers in the shipping industry with an framework for strategies that could effectively deal with the crisis.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.179-187
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• 2003

This study investigate the reasons of organizational failure in detection and appropriate response to risk signal. The Crisis does not come true suddenly, there is some risk signals in crisis. If Organization detect the risk signals the crisis is come true opportunities, if not the crisis is come true disastrous outcome. This is use the system dynamics approach. System Dynamics assume the system as a collection of causal feedback loop, so we understand the dynamics around the problems. This investigate suggest that, the focus on growth is the a kind of promotional pressure and the pressure drive the organization to less attention the risk signal, so the risk is underestimate In proportion to real risk. Ultimate, the organization entrap the promotional climate and insensible to security. This study is a kind of hypothesis-discovering research, in the further study, the discovered hypothesis will be empirically tested.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.36 no.10
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• pp.795-801
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• 2012

This paper describes theoretical approach methodology for the Probability based risk Evaluation Techniques (PET) to monitor the risk levels of small-sized sea floater as like a yacht pier. The risk decision-making process by risk criteria with five-step scales is the core concepts of PET. These five-step scales are calculated from cumulative probability distribution of response functions for the sea floater motions using closed-form expressions. In addition, The risk decision-making process of PET with the risk criteria is proposed in this work. To verify the usability of PET, simulation experiments are carried out using mimic signals with the electrical specifications of ADIS16405 sensor that is to be use as measurement tool for the floater motions. As results from experiments, the risk evaluation error by PET shows 0.38 levels in maximum 5.0 levels. These results clearly shown that the proposed PET can be use as the monitoring techniques.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.57-66
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• 2018

Maritime industry is affected by outside factors significantly due to its derivative demand characteristics. However, the supply side can not react to these changes immediately and due to this uniqueness, maritime industry repeats the boom-bust cycle. Therefore the government itself needs to operate early warning system in order to monitor the market and notice the upcoming risks by setting up a system to prepare for the situations. In this research, signal approach is used to establish early warning system. Overall leading index is composed of crisis index that is based on BDI(Baltic Dry Index) and various leading indexes such as finance, economy, shipping and the others. As a result of computing overall leading index which is early warning system in maritime through signal approach, the index showed a high correlation coefficient with actual maritime risk index by difference of 4 months. Also, the result was highly accurate with overall leading index's QPS(Quadratic Probability Score) at 0.37.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2011.01a
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• pp.105-106
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• 2011

본 논문에서는 귀가길 여성 및 치매노인 보호와 미아장비를 위한 정책을 제안한다. 이 정책은 GPS기능을 가진 작은 칩을 사용자가 원하는 어느 물체에든 부착하여 사용자가 원하는 시간대에 작동하며, 자신의 위치를 집이나 핸드폰에서 확인이 가능하고 유사시 정보를 보내어 가까운 공공기관(경찰서 및 소방서)에서 집으로 귀가하는 그 시간까지 체크가 가능한 시스템이다. SOS브로치는 늘어나는 아동 범죄와 귀가길 여성을 대상으로 하는 범죄 예방 및 치매노인을 대상으로 한 실종 사건 등 각종 사건 사고발생시 빠른 대처와 예방을 위하여 고안되었다.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.56 no.4
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• pp.406-413
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• 2023

Captive breeding and reintroduction are crucial strategies for conserving endangered species populations. However, fish raised in predator-free environments, show a lack of recognition of predationrelated stimuli such as chemical and visual signals. It is critical to recognize chemical signals from injured conspecifics, also known as alarm signals, and the order or shape of predators to indicate the spread of predation risk in the habitat. We conducted a laboratory experiment to determine and adjust the optimal exposure period to induce appropriate anti-predator behavior response to different types of stimuli (Chemical, Visual and Chemical+Visual) for the endangered species Microphysogobio rapidus. Our results demonstrate that predator avoidance behavior varies depending on the types of stimuli and the duration of predation risk exposure. First, the results showed captive-breed M. rapidus show lack of response against conspecific alarm signal (Chemical cue) before the predation risk exposure period and tend to increase response over predation risk exposure time. Second, response to predator (visual cue) tend to peak at 48 hours cumulative exposure, but show dramatic decrease after 72 hours cumulative exposure. Finally, response to the mixed cue (Chemical+visual) tend to peak prior to the predation risk exposure period and show reduced response during subsequent exposure periods. This experiment confirms the lack of responsiveness to conspecific alarm signals in captive-bred M. rapidus and the need for an optimal nature behavior enhancement program prior to release of endangered species. Furthermore, responsiveness to predator visual signal peak at 48 hours cumulative exposure, suggest an optimal predation risk exposure period of up to 48 hours.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.1-7
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• 2016

The 'alert' is to provide a signal or information beforehand, in order to prepare against situations in which abrupt incidents or disasters are expected. In other words, the purpose of alert is to help people or respondents to take precautions against and quickly cope with disasters or incidents, before those actually occur. This paper draws requirements of alert system from definitions of the alert and cases of it home and abroad. Following requirements of alert system are derived to allow subjects responsible for alert issue to quickly handle changes of situations; 1) identification of subjects responsible for alert issue, 2) use of definite terms regarding alert levels, for prompt actions, and 3) distinct separations among alert levels. This paper suggests improvement directions by extracting several problems of National Crisis Alert System according to such requirements.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.523-528
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• 2010

With the financial crisis from USA had negative impacts on the real economy, base metals price on LME was downward in 4 quarter of 2008. Following the deepest global downturn in recent history, economic growth solidified and broadened to advanced countries and simultaneously the price of base metal on LME showed a rising curve over 2009. There are three factors supported an upward tendency of base metal's price. The First factor is the US economy recovery, the second factor is the weak dollar, the third factor is the chinese base metal demand. Among the factors, the last one is a major factor. Therefore, this study analyze the factor of the movement of price of base metal with linear regression analysis. The result of analysis show that the chinese GDP growth has effect on the recent upward base metal price. Despite the result, the upward movement is difficult to be sustained without the full recovery of advanced economies.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.60-65
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• 2018

In this paper, a covariance matrix and modulogram are proposed for realizing amphibian sound classification using CNN (Convolutional Neural Network). First of all, a database is established by collecting amphibians sounds including endangered species in natural environment. In order to apply the database to CNN, it is necessary to standardize acoustic signals with different lengths. To standardize the acoustic signals, covariance matrix that gives distribution information and modulogram that contains the information about change over time are extracted and used as input to CNN. The experiment is conducted by varying the number of a convolutional layer and a fully-connected layer. For performance assessment, several conventional methods are considered representing various feature extraction and classification approaches. From the results, it is confirmed that convolutional layer has a greater impact on performance than the fully-connected layer. Also, the performance based on CNN shows attaining the highest recognition rate with 99.07 % among the considered methods.