Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2018.42.1.57

A Study on Early Warning Model in the Dry Bulk Shipping Industry by Signal Approach  

Yun, Jeong-No (Busna Metropolitan City)
KIm, Ga-Hyun (Graduate school of Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
Ryoo, Dong-Keun (Division of Shipping Management, Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
Publication Information
Journal of Navigation and Port Research / v.42, no.1, 2018 , pp. 57-66 More about this Journal
Abstract
Maritime industry is affected by outside factors significantly due to its derivative demand characteristics. However, the supply side can not react to these changes immediately and due to this uniqueness, maritime industry repeats the boom-bust cycle. Therefore the government itself needs to operate early warning system in order to monitor the market and notice the upcoming risks by setting up a system to prepare for the situations. In this research, signal approach is used to establish early warning system. Overall leading index is composed of crisis index that is based on BDI(Baltic Dry Index) and various leading indexes such as finance, economy, shipping and the others. As a result of computing overall leading index which is early warning system in maritime through signal approach, the index showed a high correlation coefficient with actual maritime risk index by difference of 4 months. Also, the result was highly accurate with overall leading index's QPS(Quadratic Probability Score) at 0.37.
Keywords
Shipping Early Warning System; Signal Approach; Drybulk Market; Shipping Cycle; BDI;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Ann J. B.(2008), "A study on freight decision factors of the dry bulk tramper in the spot markets", Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Master's Dissertation.
2 Chae S. D. (2010), "A Study on the Factors influencing on the Fluctuation of Freight Rate in Dry Bulk Shipping Market", Chung-Ang University, Master's Dissertation.
3 FAO(2001), "Handbook for Defining and Setting up a Food Security Information and Early", FAO agricultural policy and economic development series.
4 Graciela L. Kaminsky(1999), "Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress", INTERNATIONAL FINANCE DISCUSSION PAPERS.
5 Kim H. S. and Chang M. H.(2017), "Analysis of the Synchronization between Global Dry Bulk Market and Chinese Container Market", Journal of Korean Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 25-32.   DOI
6 Kim K. S. and Song C. Y.(2006), "Assessing Case Based Reasoning Approach to Currency Crisis Prediction", Journal of Money & Finance, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 133-165.
7 Kim T. H. and Seong J. H.(2009), "Early Warning System on World Grain Prices Using Signal Approach", Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 71-84.
8 Kim T. S.(2012) "Study on the method to cope with fluctuation in the freight of tramper in shipping market", Chung-Ang University, Master's Dissertation.
9 Kim Y. G. and Jeung S. D.(2005), "A Study on Early Warning System - An Application of SCOR system to Korean Mutual Savings Banks", Journal of Money & Finance, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 35-70.
10 Kim Y. S.(2009), "A study on the lead-lag relationship of spot freight and FFA in the tramper shipping industry, Chung-Ang University, Master's Dissertation.
11 Kong D. S., Kwak Y. H. and Huh J. H.(2010) "Artificial Neural Network based Energy Demand Prediction for the Urban District Energy Planning" The Architectural Institute of Korea, Vol. 26, No. 2, pp. 221-230.
12 Graciela Kaminsky, Saul Lizondo, and Carmen M. Reinhart(1998), "Leading Indicator of Currency Crises", IMF Economic Review, Vol. 45.
13 Kwon M. J.(2010), "A Study on the Determinant Factor of the Freight Rate in the Dry Bulk Shipping Market -Focus on the Cape-Size Dry Bulk Shipping Market-", Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Master's Dissertation.
14 Lee J. I.(1980) "A Study on the Determination of Tramp Freight Rates", Journal of Korean Navigation and Port Research Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 45-79.
15 Park S. I, Jeong H. J. and Yeo G. T.(2012), "Forecasting the Grain Volumes in Incheon Port Using System Dynamics", Journal of Korean Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 36, No. 6, pp. 521-526.   DOI
16 Shin C. H. and Jeong S. H.(2011), "A Study on Application of ARIMA and Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting of Port Traffic", Journal of Korean Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 35 No. 1, pp. 83-91.   DOI
17 Shin C. H., Kang J. S., Park S. N. and Lee J. H.(2008), "A study on the forecast of port traffic using hybrid ARIMA-neural network model", Journal of Korean Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 32, No. 1, pp. 81-88.   DOI
18 Shin D. H.(2010), "A study on early warning system in Korea foreign exchange market", Yonsei University, Master's Dissertation.