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A study on solar radiation prediction using medium-range weather forecasts (중기예보를 이용한 태양광 일사량 예측 연구)

  • Sujin Park;Hyojeoung Kim;Sahm Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2023
  • Solar energy, which is rapidly increasing in proportion, is being continuously developed and invested. As the installation of new and renewable energy policy green new deal and home solar panels increases, the supply of solar energy in Korea is gradually expanding, and research on accurate demand prediction of power generation is actively underway. In addition, the importance of solar radiation prediction was identified in that solar radiation prediction is acting as a factor that most influences power generation demand prediction. In addition, this study can confirm the biggest difference in that it attempted to predict solar radiation using medium-term forecast weather data not used in previous studies. In this paper, we combined the multi-linear regression model, KNN, random fores, and SVR model and the clustering technique, K-means, to predict solar radiation by hour, by calculating the probability density function for each cluster. Before using medium-term forecast data, mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were used as indicators to compare model prediction results. The data were converted into daily data according to the medium-term forecast data format from March 1, 2017 to February 28, 2022. As a result of comparing the predictive performance of the model, the method showed the best performance by predicting daily solar radiation with random forest, classifying dates with similar climate factors, and calculating the probability density function of solar radiation by cluster. In addition, when the prediction results were checked after fitting the model to the medium-term forecast data using this methodology, it was confirmed that the prediction error increased by date. This seems to be due to a prediction error in the mid-term forecast weather data. In future studies, among the weather factors that can be used in the mid-term forecast data, studies that add exogenous variables such as precipitation or apply time series clustering techniques should be conducted.

Effect of thinning ratio on the forest environment and fruiting of ectomycorrhizal mushrooms in a Pinus densiflora stand (소나무림에서 간벌률이 산림 내 환경과 외생균근성 버섯 발생에 미치는 영향)

  • Yong-Woo Park;Jin-Gun Kim;Hwayong Lee
    • Journal of Mushroom
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.22-32
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    • 2023
  • To investigate the effect of thinning intensity on environmental factors and ectomycorrhizal mushroom fruiting in forest ecosystems, we studied canopy closure, throughfall, soil temperature, soil moisture, light response of understory vegetation, and ectomycorrhizal mushroom fruiting in a 10-year-old pine forest after 34%, 45%, and 60% thinning. Canopy closure was significantly higher in the 34% treatment and control plots, ranging from 80-85% in April. However, in November, all thinning treatment plots showed a decrease of approximately 5-10% compared with the control plot. The 60% treatment plot had over 200 mm of additional throughfall compared with the control plot, and monthly throughfall was significantly higher by more than 100 mm in October. The soil temperature in each treatment plot increased significantly by up to 1℃ or more compared with the control plot as the thinning rate increased. The soil moisture increased by more than 5% in the thinning treatment plots during rainfall, particularly in the 34% treatment plot, where the rate of moisture decrease was slower. The photosynthetic rate of major tree species (excluding Pinus densiflora)was highest in Quercus mongolica, with a rate of 7 µmolCO2·m-2·s-1. At a lightintensity of 800 μmol·m-2·s-1, Q. mongolica showed the highest photosynthetic level of 6 ± 0.3 μmolCO2·m-2·s-1 in the 45% treatment. The photosynthetic rate of Fraxinus sieboldiana and Styrax japonicus increased as the thinning intensity increased. The Shannon-Wiener index of mycorrhizal mushrooms did not significantly differ among treatments, but the fresh weight of mushrooms was approximately 360-840 g higher in the 34% and 45% treatments than in the control. Additionally, the fresh weight of fungi in the 60% treatment was 860 g less than that in the control. There were more individuals of Amanita citrina in the control than in the thinning treatment, while Suillus bovinus numbers increased by more than 10 times in the 34% thinning treatment compared with the control.

Deriving Key Risk Sub-Clauses which the Engineer of FIDIC Red Book Shall Agree or Determine according to Sub-Clause 3.7 -based on FIDIC Conditions of Contract for Construction, Second Edition 2017- (FIDIC Red Book의 Engineer가 합의 또는 결정해야할 핵심 리스크 세부조항 도출 -FIDIC Red Book 2017년 개정판 기준으로-)

  • Jei, Jae Yong;Hong, Seong Yeoll;Seo, Sung Chul;Park, Hyung Keun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.239-247
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    • 2023
  • The FIDIC Red Book is an international standard contract condition in which the Employer designs and the Contractor performs the construction. The Engineer of FIDIC Red Book shall agree or determine any matter or Claim in accordance with Sub-Clause 3.7 neutrally, not as an agent of the Employer. This study aimed to derive Key Risk Sub-Clauses out of 49 Sub-Clauses that the Engineer of FIDIC Red Book recently revised in 18 years shall agree or determine according to Sub-Clause 3.7 using the Delphi method. A panel of 35 experts with more than 10 years of experience and expertise in international construction contracts was formed, and through total three Delphi surveys, errors and biases were prevented in the judgment process to improve reliability. As for the research method, 49 Sub-Clauses that engineers shall agree on or determine according to Sub-Clause 3.7 of the FIDIC Red Book were investigated through the analysis of contract conditions. In order to evaluate the probability and impact of contractual risk for each 49 Sub-Clause, the Delphi survey conducted repeatedly a closed-type survey three times on a Likert 10-point scale. The results of the first Delphi survey were delivered during the second survey, and the results of the second survey were delivered to the third survey, which was re-evaluated in the direction of increasing the consensus of experts' opinions. The reliability of the Delphi 3rd survey results was verified with the COV value of the coefficient of variation. The PI Risk Matrix was applied to the average value of risk probability and impact of each of the 49 Sub-Clauses and finally, 9 Key Risk Sub-Clauses that fell within the extreme risk range were derived.

Deriving Key Risk Sub-Clauses of General Conditions of FIDIC White Book - Based on FIDIC Client/Consultant Model Services Agreement, 5th edition 2017 - (FIDIC White Book 일반조건 핵심 리스크 세부조항 도출 - 피딕 클라이언트/컨설턴트 모델 서비스 계약, 2017년 5판 기준으로 -)

  • Jei, Jaeyong;Hong, Seongyeoll;Seo, Sungchul;Park, Hyungkeun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.59-69
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    • 2023
  • FIDIC White Book is a Model Services Agreement between the Client and the Consultant. This study aimed to derive the Key Risk Sub-Clauses out of 63 Sub-Clauses of General Conditions of the FIDIC White Book by using the Delphi technique. A panel of 40 experts with more than 10 years of experience and expertise in overseas construction services agreements and FIDIC White Book was formed, and the reliability was improved in the direction of increasing the consensus of experts through a total of three Delphi survey processes. In the first Delphi survey, a closed-type survey was conducted on the impact of risk among 63 Sub-Clauses of General Conditions on a Likert 5-point scale, and 26 main risk Sub-Clauses were derived. The Content Validity of the results of the first Delphi survey was verified with the CVR value. In the 2nd and 3rd Delphi surveys, a closed-type survey was conducted on a Likert 10-point scale for 26 main risk Sub-Clauses and the risk possibility and impact of each main risk Sub-Clause were evaluated. The reliability of the 3rd Delphi survey result was verified with the COV value. Total 14 Key Risk Sub-Clauses were derived by applying the average risk possibility and impact of each of the 26 main risk Sub-Clauses to the PI Risk Matrix. The results of deriving Key Risk Sub-Clauses showed that agreement on specific scope of service, delay management, and change management were the most important. As a result of this study, from a practical point of view, consultants of consulting companies provide guidelines that should be reviewed to minimize contractual risks when signing service contracts with clients. From an academic point of view, the direction of research on deriving key risks related to service contracts for consultants participating in overseas construction is presented.

Manufacture and Characteristics of Peel-off Pack for Natural Cosmetics Using Pullulan and Polysaccharides (Pullulan과 Polysaccharides를 이용한 천연화장품용 필 오프 팩의 제조 및 특성)

  • Jun Soo Kwak;So Young Jung;So Min Lee;Seok-Ju Lee;Sofia Brito;Byungsun Cha;Hyojin Heo;Lei Lei;Sang Hun Lee;Ha-Hyeon Jo;You-Yeon Chun;Ye Ji Kim;Hyung Mook Kim;Mi-Gi Lee;Byeong-Mun Kwak;Bum-Ho Bin
    • Journal of the Society of Cosmetic Scientists of Korea
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2023
  • In this study, for a natural cosmetics market, we sought to explore alternatives that can replace polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) of peel-off packs. A peel-off type pack was prepared by combining pullulan, a water-soluble polysaccharide, and other polysaccharides (sodium hyaluronate, cellulose gum, hydroxyethyl cellulose, sodium alginate, corn starch), and the pH, viscosity, and stability against temperature of each peel-off type pack were confirmed. The thickness and tensile strength of the manufactured film were measured for comparison with the PVA peel-off type pack, and applicability, drying speed, and removal degree were measured. Among them, the pullulan-sodium hyaluronate peel-off type pack showed excellent film formation ability to replace the peel-off type pack containing PVA with 5.12% thin film thickness and 4.23% high film tensile strength. When applied to actual skin, the degree of spread of the pack, the usability that can be uniformly applied, and the formation and removal strength of the film when removed after drying were also similar to the peel-off type pack containing PVA. Therefore, it was confirmed that the film formed of pullulan-sodium hyaluronate showed enough physical properties to replace the PVA of the peel-off type pack as a natural peel-off type pack.

Feasibility Assessment on the Application of X-ray Computed Tomography on the Characterization of Bentonite under Hydration (벤토나이트 수화반응 특성화를 위한 X선 단층촬영 기술 적용성 평가)

  • Melvin B., Diaz;Gyung Won, Lee;Seohyeon, Yun;Kwang Yeom, Kim;Chang-soo, Lee;Minseop, Kim;Jin-Seop, Kim
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.491-501
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    • 2022
  • Bentonite has been proposed as a buffer and backfill material for high-level radioactive waste repository. Under such repository environment conditions, bentonite is subjected to combined thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical processes. This study evaluates the feasibility of applying X-ray CT technology on the characterization of bentonite under hydration conditions using a newly developed testing cell. The cylindrical cell is made of platic material, with a removable cap to place the sample, enabling to apply vertical pressure on the sample and to measure swelling pressure. The hydration test was carried out with a sample made of Gyeonju bentonite, with a dry density of 1.4 g/cm3, and a water content of 20%. The sample had a diameter of 27.5 mm and a height of 34 mm. During the test, water was injected at a constant pressure of 0.207 MPa, and lasted for 7 days. After one day of hydration, bentonite swelled and filled out the space inside the cell. Moreover, CT histograms showed how the hydration process induced an initial increase and later progressive decrease on the density of the sample. Detailed profiles of the mean CT value, CT standard deviation, and CT gradient provided more details on the hydration process of the sample and showed how the bottom and top regions exhibited a decrease on density while the middle region showed an increase, especially during the first two days of hydration. Later, the differences in CT values with respect to the initial state decreased, and were small at the end of testing. The formation and later reduction of cracks was also characterized through CT scanning.

Retrospective study on survival and complication rates of posterior single implant according to the implant diameters, lengths and position (구치부 단일 임플란트의 직경과 길이, 식립 위치에 따른 생존율 및 합병증의 발생률에 대한 후향적 연구)

  • Soo-Young Hong;Seon-Ki Lee;Jin-Han Lee;Jae-In Lee
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.61 no.2
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2023
  • Purpose. This retrospective study was to investigate the survival and complication rates of posterior single implant according to the implant diameters, lengths and position. Materials and methods. Patients who had been restored single implant prosthesis in the posterior area by the three prosthodontists in the department of prosthodontics, Daejeon dental hospital of Wonkwang university, in the period from February 2014 to May 2018 were selected for the study. A total of 505 patients with 697 implants were observed. The survival and complications of implants were investigated using electronic medical records and radiographs. Fixture diameters, lengths, position, patient's sex and age were assessed as possible factor affecting the survival and complications of implants. Results. 3-year cumulative survival rates of posterior single implants were 98.5% and 5-year cumulative survival rates were 94.4%. 5-year cumulative survival rates were higher in implants with diameter > 4.0 mm (97.0%) than implants with diameter ≤ 4.0 mm (89.5%), and in females (98.8%) than males (92.4%). There were statistically significant differences (P < .05). The mechanical complication rate was 20.1% and the biological complication rate was 4.7%. Complications occurred in order of abutment screw loosening (7.5%), decementation (6.3%), proximal contact loss (3.7%) and so on. Abutment screw loosening occurred more frequently in the lower molar region (10.5%), in males (9.5%) than females (5.1%), and in patients aged < 65 years (9.4%) than patients aged ≥ 65 years (5.1%). There were statistically significant differences (P < .05). Conclusion. The 5-year cumulative survival rates were higher in implants with diameter > 4.0 mm than implants with diameter ≤ 4.0 mm and in females than males. Abutment screw loosening which was the most commonly occurring complication occurred more frequently in the lower molar region, in males than females, and in patients aged < 65 years than patients aged ≥ 65 years. There were statistically significant differences.

Chemical and Physical Influence Factors on Performance of Bentonite Grouts for Backfilling Ground Heat Exchanger (지중 열교환기용 멘토나이트 뒤채움재의 화학적, 물리적 영향 요소에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Chul-Ho;Wi, Ji-Hae;Park, Moon-Seo;Choi, Hang-Seok;Shon, Byong-Hu
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.26 no.12
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2010
  • Bentonite-based grout has been widely used to seal a borehole constructed for a closed-loop vertical ground heat exchanger in a geothermal heat pump system (GHP) because of its high swelling potential and low hydraulic conductivity. Three types of bentonites were compared one another in terms of viscosity and thermal conductivity in this paper. The viscosity and thermal conductivity of the grouts with bentonite contents of 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% and 25% by weight were examined to take into account a variable water content of bentonite grout depending on field conditions. To evaluate the effect of salinity (i.e., concentration of NaCl : 0.1M, 0.25M, and 0.5M) on swelling potential of the bentonite-based grouts, a series of volume reduction tests were performed. In addition, if the viscosity of bentonite-water mixture is relatively low, particle segregation can occur. To examine the segregation phenomenon, the degree of segregation has been evaluated for the bentonite grouts especially in case of relatively low viscosity. From the experimental results, it is found that (1) the viscosity of the bentonite mixture increased with time and/or with increasing the mixing ratio. However, the thermal conductivity of the bentonite mixture did not increase with time but increased with increasing the mixing ratio; (2) If bentonite grout has a relatively high swelling index, the volume reduction ratio in the saline condition will be low; (3) The additive, such as a silica sand, can settle down on the bottom of the borehole if the bentonite has a very low viscosity. Consequently, the thermal conductivity of the upper portion of the ground heat exchanger will be much smaller than that of the lower portion.

Inhibitory Effect of Potato Sprouting Inhibitor Chlorpropham on Dry Rot (감자 맹아억제제 Chlorpropham의 마른썩음병 억제 효과)

  • Kyusuk Han;Byung Sup Kim;Sae Jin Hong;Nam Sook Kim
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.165-171
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    • 2023
  • Potato dry rot is one of the potato storage diseases caused by Fusarium species and is a representative pathological disorder that induced post-harvest loss during storage. Chlorpropham treatment for sprouting inhibition is mainly used for room temperature storage of potatoes for processing. In this study, the inhibitory effect of chlorpropham on Fusarium-induced dry rot of potato 'Dano'. To investigate the mycelial growth rate of the dry rot fungus (Fusarium solani Appel & Wollenw), mycelial growth was investigated in a chlorpropham (5.0, 50.4, 503.8, and 5,038 ppm) and prochloraz (0.1, 1.0, 10.0, and 100.0 ppm) medium containing F. oxysporum mycelia. Mycelia were more inhibited as the concentration of chlorpropham and prochloraz increased during incubation at 20℃, and the inhibition rate was 98.2% and 100% when treated with 503.8 ppm of chlorpropham and 10ppm of prochloraz in 14 days, respectively. Potato Dano tubers inoculated with F. oxysporum were dipped in chlorpropham (5.0, 50.4, and 503.8 ppm) and prochloraz (100 ppm) to investigate the effect of preventing dry rot during cold storage at 20℃ and 4℃ in vivo. The disease diameter of potatoes stored at room temperature (about 20℃) was reduced to 13.0 mm in the prochloraz 100 ppm teatment, and 10.7 mm in the chlorpropham 50.4 ppm treatment compared to 13.7 mm in the control tuber at 70 days of storage. The disease progression in all treatments including control was similar with no statistically significant difference at 4℃ air temperature. From the results of this study, it is considered that treatment with 50.4 ppm of chlorpropham after harvest will be useful for suppressing dry rot of stored potatoes.

A Study on the Gwanbang forest of Ganghwa in the Joseon Dynasty Period (조선시대 강화지역 관방림(關防林)의 특성 연구)

  • Shim, Sun-Hui;Lee Jae-Yong;Kim, Choong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.35-46
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    • 2023
  • This study investigated and analyzed ancient records on the type, planting background, and construction process of Gwanbang forest(關防林) planned for military defense during the Joseon Dynasty to find out the purpose, location, and planting species of Gwanbang forest. The research results were as follows. During the Joseon Dynasty, Gwanbang forests were created around various government facilities(關防施設), such as Eupseong(邑城), major government offices, camps, and fortifications, for the purpose of defending against enemies. Gwanbang forest includes Yeongaeglim(嶺阨林), which was created on the crest of a strategically important hill, and Military Forest created for military purposes. Most of the spirit forest was designated as Geumsan(禁山) and protected and managed, and the Gwanbang forest was created for various purposes such as shielding, flood damage and river bank erosion prevention as well as external defense. In addition, in order to continuously and efficiently produce wood, which is a material for ships, buildings, and agricultural tools, in most cases, large areas were created as mixed forests. As for the species constituting the Gwanbang forest, there are records of tangerine tree, which is effective for defense because it has thorns, and deciduous broad-leaved trees such as zelkova, elm, willow, david hemiptelea, and oak appear. In the case of Ganghwa island, which served as the defense of the capital and the royal family during the Joseon Dynasty, several records have confirmed that a forest densely planted with trifoliate orange was created for the purpose of Gwanbang forest to reinforce the defense of the outer fortress. Based on historical research in the literature, assuming that the natural monument 'Gapgotri tangerine tree in Ganghwa Island' was planted in the 30th year of King Sukjong(1704), the first record of planting trifoliate orange in Ganghwa Island, the maximum age is estimated to be more than 319 years.