• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.13 no.4
• /
• pp.60-68
• /
• 2012

The past IMF foreign exchange crisis and subprime financial crisis had a big influence on variability of macroeconomics, even if the origin of its occurrence might be different. This not only had a significant infrequence on the overall industries, but also produced many insolvent companies by being closely linked with a management environment of an individual construction company leading the construction industry. Actually, the level of default risk of construction companies before and after fluctuation of macroeconomics gets to experience a rapid changing process, and a difference in reaction against shock exists according to each company. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to confirm the fluctuation process of the default risk of construction companies under the fluctuation of macroeconomics such as the IMF financial crisis and the subprime mortgage crisis. As an analysis result, it is judged that the subprime financial crisis gave bigger shock to construction companies than the foreign exchange crisis, and it is expected that this would have a relation with the construction market before shock of macroeconomics. In addition, it was analyzed that when comparing insolvent companies with normal companies, the recovery speed of normal companies is faster. It is judged that this was affected by a difference of internal business capacity between insolvent companies and normal companies.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.169-191
• /
• 2001

본 연구는 우리나라와 일본의 주가, 금리와 환율 등 주요 금융자산가격변수들이 상호간에 주고받는 영향을 3변량 MA-GARCH모형을 사용하여 분석하여 보았다. 우선 각 시장의 조건부 수익률을 기준으로 볼 때 우리나라에서는 외환위기 이후 주식시장과 채권시장의 상관관계는 낮아진 반면 외환시장과 주식시장, 외환시장과 채권시장의 상관관계는 10%p 이상씩 높아진 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 외환위기 이후 주식, 채권시장의 외환시장과의 연관성은 크게 높아져 환율 움직임의 영향력이 전반적으로 커졌다고 이해할 수 있다. 이에 비해 일본의 경우 각각의 금융시장간 상관계수는 10% 이하의 매우 낮은 수준에 불과하여 상호관련성이 낮은 수준을 보여 주었다. GARCH 추정이 도출한 각 시장의 조건부표준편차들간의 상관계수를 보면, 우리나라와 일본 모두 외환시장 변동성$\leftrightarrow$채권시장 변동성, 주식시장 변동성$\leftrightarrow$채권시장 변동성 사이의 상관관계는 28-29% 정도이며, 외환시장 변동성$\leftrightarrow$주식시장 변동성 사이의 관계는 21% 정도로 상대적으로 낮은 수치를 보여 주었다. 반면에 금융시장 변동성의 각 국간 상관관계는 90% 내외의 높은 상관관계를 가져, 국가내의 시장간 관계보다 더 높은 수치를 보여 주었다. 따라서 우리나라와 일본의 금융시장 변동성은 국내금융시장간의 요인보다는 모두 미국 주식시장에서의 충격이나 국제유가 급등락 등 외부적 요인에 대해 크게 영향을 받는 것으로 판단해 볼 수 있을 것이다.

• Korea Petroleum Association Journal
• /
• no.1 s.203
• /
• pp.4-7
• /
• 1998

지금의 경제위기는 동남아의 외환위기와 국내의 기아사태등을 계기로 시작됐다. 한국경제가 안고있는 여러가지 위험요소들에 눈을 뜬 국제자본이 한국경제에 대한 신뢰를 상실하고 한국경제를 기피한 결과다. 따라서 이 위기는 한국을 떠난 외국의 민간자본이 한국경제에 대한 신뢰를 회복하여 다시 유입되지 않는 한 지속될 것이다. 이봉서 ADB부총재는 『지금은 일단 IMF의 지원조건을 이행한다는 의지를 보여 한국에 대한 신뢰를 회복하는 일이 가장 중요하며, 장기적으로 우리 경제회생에 도움이 된다면 쓴 약도 마셔야 할 때』라고 강조한다. 이 글은 지난 12월 10일 이 부총재가 에너지 연구회 세미나에서 행한 강연내용을 정리한 것이다. <편집자 주>

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.239-251
• /
• 2005

This paper investigates the effectiveness of economic policy on the stock market in Korea around foreign currency crisis and stock market opening. For this purpose, the paper applied SUR technique to a set of monthly data over the period 1982.01 to 2004.12. The study finds the following results. First, for the entire sample period, Korean stock market appears to have effectively incorporated all of the past information about fiscal policy moves. However, the paper finds an evidence that some of the past monetary actions have significant impacts upon current stock returns implying that the information about past monetary moves has been overlooked. Second, there is an evidence to suggest that, after foreign currency crisis, the macro economic policy actions may influence stock market in a different way. In particular, after foreign currency crisis, monetary policy influences stock market in a more delayed pattern while past fiscal policy moves are well incorporated into current stock returns. Third, before stock market opening to foreign investors, some of the past economic policy actions have significant effects on current stock returns. On the contrary, after stock market opening, none of the past macro economic information has significant impact upon current stock returns. The results imply that stock market opening may contribute to the active utilization of economic information for market participants in Korea.

• Journal of Labour Economics
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.35-66
• /
• 2001

This study first attempted to measure the job instability of Korean labor market by exploiting the data sets of 1998 and 1999 Korean Labor Panels. In order to compare the degrees of job instability of Korea with the one of U.S., we followed the same empirical methods used by Jaeger and Stevens(1999), Neumark et al.(1999), Bemhardt et al.(1999) recently published in the Journal of Labor Economics (vol. 17). Our empirical results suggest that the job retention rate of the Korean labor market during the IMF economic crisis was decreased to the level that the U.S. labor market has never experienced during the past two decades. One noticeable point regarding our estimated four year retention rate is that it takes a form of plateau peaked around 9 and 15 tenure year, which is in sharp contrast with the four year retention rate of u.S. showing a monotonically decreasing tendency over tenure periods. The comparison of 2-year retention rates before and after the economic crisis suggests that job stabilities has been conspicuously aggravated especially for cohorts of long tenure, irregular job, old age, service and sales jobs.

• Proceedings of the Population Association of Korea Conference
• /
• 2006.12a
• /
• pp.59-87
• /
• 2006

This paper explores the effects of the 1997 economic crisis on the pattern of socioeconomic differentials in fertility. Based on analysis of data from the 2003 Korea National Fertility Survey, this study focuses on recent changes in the level of fertility according to socioeconomic status of the couple including educational level, occupation, working status, income, etc. Results reveal that the level of fertility of those with the highest education, most prestigious occupation, and employer status are higher than those of the next group in the socioeconomic hierarchy. These findings imply that the straight line inverse pattern of socioeconomic differentials in CEB yielded to a reversed J-shaped curve. However, recent differentials of fertility after the economic crisis were found to contrast with the pattern above. Decrease in fertility has been most drastic among those with a high level of fertility, and relatively slow for those with a low level of fertility. The level of recent fertility turns out to be highest among those with upper-middle socioeconomic status, followed by those with the highest socioeconomic status and those with the lowest status. Policy implications and some comments on current population policies of the Korean government are also presented in this paper.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
• /
• v.59 no.1
• /
• pp.199-221
• /
• 2007

This study examines the conditions and causes of income inequality and seeks assignments for mitigating income inequality. An analysis of the conditions and causes of income inequality is summarized as follows. First, income inequality, which rapidly increased after the economic crisis, increased and reduced repeatedly during 1999-2004, and remained a level in 2005 as high as that of the year directly after the economic crisis. Second, an analysis of the causes of income inequality by utilizing the long-term data(1985-2004) shows that unemployment rate, nonstandard employment rate, and the rising rate of land prices positively affect income inequality. Third, an analysis of the causes of income inequality by utilizing the data before and after the economic crisis(1995-2004) demonstrates that unemployment rate, nonstandard employment rate, and the workers' income ratio between large enterprises and small enterprises positively affect income inequality. Fourth, the rising rate of land prices which significantly affects income inequality in the data of 1985-2004 does not affect income equality in the data of 1995-2004, and the workers' income ratio between large enterprises and small enterprises which does not affect income inequality in the data of 1985-2004 significantly affect income equality in the data of 1995-2004. These results suggest several implications for mitigating income inequality. First, alternative plans to reduce unemployment rate must be prepared. Second, policies to reduce nonstandard employment rate should be established. Third, programs to stabilize or lower the land prices must be deliberated. Fourth, a master-plan to support small to medium enterprises must be carried out in order to reduce the wage differentials between large enterprises and small to medium enterprises.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.215-229
• /
• 2004

이 연구는 우리나라 상장 제조기업의 자본조달행태를 외환위기를 기준으로 구분하여 분석함으로써 자본조달순위이론의 타당성 여부를 탐색하였다. 최적자본구조의 존재여부와 결정요인을 탐색하는 정태적 자본구조이론과 달리 우선순위에 따라 자본조달을 한다고 제시된 것이 동태적 성격의 자본조달순위이론이다. 1981년부터 2002년까지 우리나라 상장 제조업의 패널자료를 이용하여 분석한 결과 현금흐름의 회귀계수가 일관성 있게 음(-)의 부호를 나타냈는데 이것은 우리나라 기업들이 대체로 자본조달순위이론과 같은 행태로 자본을 조달하는 것으로 해석된다. 총자산 수익률변수도 자본조달순위이론을 지지하는 결과를 보여주었으며 외환위기이전과 이후의 차이는 크지 않은 것으로 나타났다.

• 프린팅코리아
• /
• s.18
• /
• pp.146-148
• /
• 2003

'IMF보다 어려운 상황'. 인쇄출판업자들의 한결같은 지적이다. 외환위기 이후 1999년부터 매년 큰 폭의 회복세를 보이다가 작년부터 성장이 둔화되어 올해에는 침체의 늪으로 빠지는 듯한 흐름을 보여주고 있어, 그 심각성이 더하다. 도대체 무엇 때문인가. 가장 큰 원인은 전반적인 국내, 국제경기의 침체에서 찾을 수 있겠으나, 사회문화적 요인도 간과할 수 없다. 간단히 말해 독자들이 변했다는 것이다.

• KOREAN POULTRY JOURNAL
• /
• v.30 no.2 s.340
• /
• pp.60-62
• /
• 1998

외환위기로 인한 IMF구제금융의 파장은 환율상승에 따른 생산비의 급격한 상승과 소비위축 등에 의한 축산물 가격하락 등으로 경영부담이 가중되고 있는 가운데 위기가 고조되어 가고 있어 축산물 생산 여건은 악화일로를 걷고 있다. 이러한 최근의 급격한 환경여건 변화에 따른 대책을 강구한다는 것이 쉽지 않지만 현재의 상황을 상기하여 봄으로써 종계$\cdot$부화업계의 자구책을 찾아보고자 경인축산 이광초 사장을 만나 업계의 어려움에 대하여 들어보았다.