• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2002.05b
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• pp.181-198
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• 2002

This article describes a methodology for evaluating huge aerospace R&D investments using the real options pricing method. Option pricing has been proposed as a useful approach for modeling investment in R&D. Two important features of R&D investments are that an R&D project takes time to complete and that the outcome of R&D investments is highly uncertain. This makes the analysis of R&D investments difficult. Traditional tools for project evaluation, like IRR or the NPV, are inadequate for coping with the high uncertainty. Hence, In this article I propose a log-transformed binomal lattice method, and it will show that option pricing might be an adequate framework for evaluating such types of aerospace investments.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2015

We estimate the option value embedded in reverse mortgages using the framework of European put option. The reverse mortgage is a very useful financial product for senior citizens who own homes but do not have a cash income while it is a high risk one from lender's perspective. One of benefits of the reverse mortgages is that the debt limit is restricted to the scope of the disposition price of the collateralized house, which is considered a put option to borrowers. The put option is evaluated using Black-Scholes model and a sensitive analysis is performed on variables such as discount rate, volatility, and time period. We confirm that the option value of reverse mortgages increases rapidly as the borrowers live longer than their life expectancy. The results of this study can be used to promote the reverse mortgage program more effectively in order to solve the problem of income shortage of the elderly homeowners.

• New & Renewable Energy
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.18-27
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• 2011

Management flexibility to adapt its future actions in response to altered future market conditions can expand the value of an investment opportunity by improving its upside potential without the change in the downside losses. Module manufacturers in solar industry continuously have to decide how much and when its production capacity should be expanded with regards to the demand in the global markets. Either over- or under-investment can cause sunk and/or opportunity costs to the module manufacturers. Option of exercising the additional investments only on favorable opportunities can increase total value of the investment. This paper analyzes the case which shows that the expansion of production capacity with more expandibility can have more value than the rigid plan of capacity expansion. The expansion option value is equivalent to KRW 38.286 billion, thus switching the negative NPV of the initial investment opportunity into the positive value. High volatility and the high growth in the cashflows as the major business features of the renewable energy provide condition where real options can play the crucial role in increasing the investment value as well as in determining the size and timing of capacity expansion in the course of capital budgeting process.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.209-237
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• 2006

Since previous default forecasting models for the firms evaluate the probability of default based upon the accounting data from book values, they cannot reflect the changes in markets sensitively and they seem to lack theoretical background. The market-information based models, however, not only make use of market data for the default prediction, but also have strong theoretical background like Black-Scholes (1973) option theory. So, many firms recently use such market based model as KMV to forecast their default probabilities and to manage their credit risks. Korean firms also widely use the KMV model in which default point is defined by liquid debt plus 50% of fixed debt. Since the debt structures between Korean and American firms are significantly different, Korean firms should carefully use KMV model. In this study, we empirically investigate the importance of debt structure. In particular, we find the following facts: First, in Korea, fixed debts are more important than liquid debts in accurate prediction of default. Second, the percentage of fixed debt must be less than 20% when default point is calculated for Korean firms, which is different from the KMV. These facts give Korean firms some valuable implication about default forecasting and management of credit risk.

• Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
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• v.6 no.6
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• pp.403-412
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• 2016

As transaction and investment using technology are vitalized, the need for objective standards for the technology is increasing. Current technology value evaluation system is limited lacking reliability and objectivity. Besides the traditional evaluation methodology which are market approach, income approach and cost approach other diverse evaluation methodology such as real option method and royalty calculation method are being studied; however currently there are no dominant evaluation methodology in the market. Same value evaluation system cannot be applied between similar technologies because value of technology is relatively decided based on the target. Approaching through collective intelligence and crowd sourcing, in meaning of majority participant's decision can make objective and better result than handful of experts, suggest alternative to problems of such matter above. By grafting the four types of crowd sourcing model which are Wisdom, Voting, Funding and Creation, this paper will discuss the ways to enhance the objectivity of technology evaluation through direct evaluation utilizing expert group and the public's indirect evaluation.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.135-147
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• 2009

The world has witnessed the dramatic expansion of international construction markets during the last decades, particularly around the developing economies and energy resource-rich countries. However, despite the booming markets, the risks of emerging regions have also increased under the rapidly changing environments confronting the global contractors. Most of all, success in overseas business mainly depends on selecting the right market to enter. Accordingly, the right market selection requires global firms to carefully carry out the scientific market entry decision by evaluating country risks, market prospects, firm's capability, level of competition, and among others. This study aims at developing a market entry model by the use of real option analysis (ROA) and scenario planning, which addresses the corporate strategic flexibility against the uncertainties encompassing the overseas construction markets. Based on the suggested approach, global contractors are expected to make a better decision rather than a typically static approach in pursuing, postponing, or abandoning a prospective market to their capacity with a concurrent consideration of uncertainties as well as its option value.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.75-89
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• 2014

PURPOSES : This study evaluates the economic value of national highway construction projects using Real Option Pricing Models. METHODS : We identified the option premium for uncertainties associated with flexibilities according to the future's change in national highway construction projects. In order to evaluate value of future's underlying asset, we calculated the volatility of the unit price per year for benefit estimation such as VOTS, VOCS, VICS, VOPCS and VONCS that the "Transportation Facility Investment Evaluation Guidelines" presented. RESULTS : We evaluated the option premium of underlying asset through a case study of the actual national highway construction projects using ROPM. And in order to predict the changes in the option value of the future's underlying asset, we evaluated the changes of option premium for future's uncertainties by the defer of the start of construction work, the contract of project scale, and the abandon of project during pre-land compensation stages that were occurred frequently in the highway construction projects. Finally we analyzed the sensitivity of the underlying asset using volatility, risk free rate and expiration date of option. CONCLUSIONS : We concluded that a highway construction project has economic value even though static NPV had a negative(-) value because of the sum of the existing static NPV and the option premium for the future's uncertainties associated with flexibilities.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.29-39
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• 2001

Traditionally, companies have been concerned with making an investment decision either to go now or never to go forever. However, owing to the development of the theory of options pricing in a financial investment field and its introduction to the appraisal of real investments in these days, we are now partially allowed to derive the value of a managerial flexibility of real investment projects. In this paper, we derived a general mathematical model to price the option value of real investment projects assuming that they have only one-period of time under which uncertainty exists. This mathematical model was developed based on the opportunity cost concept. We will show a simple numerical example to illustrate how the mathematical model works comparing it with the existing models.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2004.05a
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• pp.742-745
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• 2004

Most of options pricing theory including Black and Scholes continuous model and Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein(CRR)'s binomial lattice model were developed based on the notion that continually revised risk-free hedges involving options and stock should earn the risk-free interest rate. This notion is valid with the assumption that the investor's attitude toward risk is neutral. In reality, this assumption may be frequently violated. Therefore, Hodder, Mello, and Sick proposed the way to value real options using the risk-adjusted interest rate. However, they did not show how to derive the mathematical expression for it. In this paper, we will clearly present how to obtain the mathematical expression for the risk-adjusted interest rate for real options and demonstrate two numerical examples to show its applicability.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.180-190
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• 2006

We evaluate the economic value and the optimal investment timing of IMT-2000 in Korea, in the perspective of a service provider who owns the business license for IMT-2000, by using the real options analysis. The result clearly shows the project value with options is positive and delaying the investment is more favorable to the provider. Binomial lattice approach, in which we try to describe American call option and sequential compound option, and sensitivity analysis present the optimal decisions according to future states and enable the management to make decision strategically and proactively.