• Title/Summary/Keyword: 오차

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Assessment of future hydrological behavior of Soyanggang Dam watershed using SWAT (SWAT 모형을 이용한 소양강댐 유역의 미래 수자원 영향 평가)

  • Park, Min Ji;Shin, Hyung Jin;Park, Geun Ae;Kim, Seong Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.4B
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    • pp.337-346
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    • 2010
  • Climate change has a huge impact on various parts of the world. This study quantified and analyzed the effects on hydrological behavior caused by climate, vegetation canopy and land use change of Soyanggang dam watershed (2,694.4 $km^2$) using the semi-distributed model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool). For the 1997-2006 daily dam inflow data, the model was calibrated with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies between the range of 0.45 and 0.91. For the future climate change projection, three GCMs of MIROC3.2hires, ECHAM5-OM, and HadCM3 were used. The A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted. The data was corrected for each bias and downscaled by Change Factor (CF) method using 30 years (1977-2006, baseline period) weather data and 20C3M (20th Century Climate Coupled Model). Three periods of data; 2010-2039 (2020s), 2040-2069 (2050s), 2070-2099 (2080s) were prepared for future evaluation. The future annual temperature and precipitation were predicted to change from +2.0 to $+6.3^{\circ}C$ and from -20.4 to 32.3% respectively. Seasonal temperature change increased in all scenarios except for winter period of HadCM3. The precipitation of winter and spring increased while it decreased for summer and fall for all GCMs. Future land use and vegetation canopy condition were predicted by CA-Markov technique and MODIS LAI versus temperature regression respectively. The future hydrological evaluation showed that the annual evapotranspiration increases up to 30.1%, and the groundwater recharge and soil moisture decreases up to 55.4% and 32.4% respectively compared to 2000 condition. Dam inflow was predicted to change from -38.6 to 29.5%. For all scenarios, the fall dam inflow, soil moisture and groundwater recharge were predicted to decrease. The seasonal vapotranspiration was predicted to increase up to 64.2% for all seasons except for HadCM3 winter.

Verification of Multi-point Displacement Response Measurement Algorithm Using Image Processing Technique (영상처리기법을 이용한 다중 변위응답 측정 알고리즘의 검증)

  • Kim, Sung-Wan;Kim, Nam-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.3A
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    • pp.297-307
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    • 2010
  • Recently, maintenance engineering and technology for civil and building structures have begun to draw big attention and actually the number of structures that need to be evaluate on structural safety due to deterioration and performance degradation of structures are rapidly increasing. When stiffness is decreased because of deterioration of structures and member cracks, dynamic characteristics of structures would be changed. And it is important that the damaged areas and extent of the damage are correctly evaluated by analyzing dynamic characteristics from the actual behavior of a structure. In general, typical measurement instruments used for structure monitoring are dynamic instruments. Existing dynamic instruments are not easy to obtain reliable data when the cable connecting measurement sensors and device is long, and have uneconomical for 1 to 1 connection process between each sensor and instrument. Therefore, a method without attaching sensors to measure vibration at a long range is required. The representative applicable non-contact methods to measure the vibration of structures are laser doppler effect, a method using GPS, and image processing technique. The method using laser doppler effect shows relatively high accuracy but uneconomical while the method using GPS requires expensive equipment, and has its signal's own error and limited speed of sampling rate. But the method using image signal is simple and economical, and is proper to get vibration of inaccessible structures and dynamic characteristics. Image signals of camera instead of sensors had been recently used by many researchers. But the existing method, which records a point of a target attached on a structure and then measures vibration using image processing technique, could have relatively the limited objects of measurement. Therefore, this study conducted shaking table test and field load test to verify the validity of the method that can measure multi-point displacement responses of structures using image processing technique.

Predictions of VO2max Using Metabolical Responses in Submaximal Exercise and 1,200 m Running for Male, and the Validity of These Prediction Models (성인 남성의 최대하 운동시 대사반응 및 1,200 m 달리기 기록을 이용한 최대산소섭취량 추정식 개발 및 타당도)

  • Im, J.H.;Jeon, Y.J.;Jang, H.K.;Kim, H.J.;Kim, K.H.;Lee, B.K.
    • Exercise Science
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.231-242
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to develop the prediction model of VO2max using submaximal metabolic responses from the Bruce protocol, HR responses at several stages and 1,200 m running record, and to compare and analyse the validity of these prediction models. The subjects were consisted of 255 male(133 male for 1,200 m running). They were participated maximal exercise testing with Bruce protocol, and the metabolic responses were measured in the end of the first(3 minute), second stage(6 minute), and 1,200 m running record. Measurement items were VO2(㎖/kg/min), VCO2(㎖/kg/min), VE(L/min), HR(bpm) of 3 and 6 minute, time to HR 150 bpm and 170 bpm, HR difference between Bruce protocol 6 and 3 minute, 1,200 m running record. Analyzing with all variables using enter method, the multiple R of total variable model was 0.642(p<.01), SEE was 4.38 ㎖/kg/min, CV was 10.8 %, but multicolinearity was appeared. The multiple R of 3 minutes model 1 and model 2 were 0.341 and 0.461, SEE was 6.05 and 5.72 ㎖/kg/min, CV was 14.9 and 14.1%, and multicolinearity did not appeared. The multiple R of 6 minutes model 1 and model 2 were 0.350 and 0.456, SEE was 6.03 and 5.74 ㎖/kg/min, CV was 14.9 and 14.2%, and multicolinearity did not appeared. The R of HR 170 and HR 170 model were 0.151 and 0.154, SEE were 6.36~6.37 ㎖/kg/min, CV were 15.7%. The R of 1,200 m running model was 0.444, SEE was 4.82 ㎖/kg/min, CV were 11.9%. In conclusion, with considering usefulness and convenience through the validity of these prediction models, the prediction model of VO2max recommended 6 and 3 minute model, and the validity of HR model and 1,200 m running model were moderately low.

Spatial Autocorrelation and the Turnout of the Early Voting and Regular Voting: Analysis of the 21st General Election at Dong in Seoul (공간적 자기상관성과 관내사전투표와 본투표의 투표율: 제21대 총선 서울시 동별 분석)

  • Lim, Sunghack
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.113-140
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    • 2020
  • This study is meaningful in that it is the first analysis of Korean elections using the concept of spatial autocorrelation. Spatial autocorrelation means that an event occurring in one location in space has a high correlation with an event occurring in the surrounding area. The voter turnout rate in the 21st general election of Seoul area was divided into the early-voting turnout and voting-day turnout, and the spatial pattern of the turnout was examined. Most of the previous studies were based on the unit of the precinct and personal data, but this study analyzed on the basis of the lower unit, Eup-myeon-dong, and analyzed using spatial data and aggregate data. Moran I index showed a fairly high spatial autocorrelation of 0.261 in the voting-day turnout, while the index of the early-voting turnout was low at 0.095, indicating that there was little spatial autocorrelation despite statistical significance. The voting-day turnout, which showed strong spatial autocorrelation, was compared and analyzed using the OLS regression model and the spatial statistics model. In the general regression model, the coefficient of determination R2 rose from 0.585261 to 0.656631 in the spatial error model, showing an increase in explanatory power of about 7 percentage points. This means that the spatial statistical model has high explanatory power. The most interesting result is the relationship between the early-voting turnout and the voting-day turnout. The higher the early-voting turnout is, the lower the voting-day turnout is. When the early-voing turnout increases by about 2%, the voting-day turnout drops by about 1%. In this study, the variables affecting the early-voting turnout and the voting-day turnout are very different. This finding is different from the previous researches.

Comprehensive Review on the Implications of Extreme Weather Characteristics to Stormwater Nature-based Solutions (자연기반해법을 적용한 그린인프라 시설의 극한기후 영향 사례분석)

  • Miguel Enrico L. Robles;Franz Kevin F. Geronimo;Chiny C. Vispo;Haque Md Tashdedul;Minsu Jeon;Lee-Hyung Kim
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.353-365
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    • 2023
  • The effects of climate change on green infrastructure and environmental media remain uncertain and context-specific despite numerous climate projections globally. In this study, the extreme weather conditions in seven major cities in South Korea were characterized through statistical analysis of 20-year daily meteorological data extracted fro m the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Additionally, the impacts of extreme weather on Nature-based Solutions (NbS) were determined through a comprehensive review. The results of the statistical analysis and comprehensive review revealed the studied cities are potentially vulnerable to varying extreme weather conditions, depending on geographic location, surface imperviousness, and local weather patterns. Temperature extremes were seen as potential threats to the resilience of NbS in Seoul, as both the highest maximum and lowest minimum temperatures were observed in the mentioned city. Moreover, extreme values for precipitation and maximum wind speed were observed in cities from the southern part of South Korea, particularly Busan, Ulsan, and Jeju. It was also found that extremely low temperatures induce the most impact on the resilience of NbS and environmental media. Extremely cold conditions were identified to reduce the pollutant removal efficiency of biochar, sand, gravel, and woodchip, as well as the nutrient uptake capabilities of constructed wetlands (CWs). In response to the negative impacts of extreme weather on the effectiveness of NbS, several adaptation strategies, such as the addition of shading and insulation systems, were also identified in this study. The results of this study are seen as beneficial to improving the resilience of NbS in South Korea and other locations with similar climate characteristics.

1-month Prediction on Rice Harvest Date in South Korea Based on Dynamically Downscaled Temperature (역학적 규모축소 기온을 이용한 남한지역 벼 수확일 1개월 예측)

  • Jina Hur;Eun-Soon Im;Subin Ha;Yong-Seok Kim;Eung-Sup Kim;Joonlee Lee;Sera Jo;Kyo-Moon Shim;Min-Gu Kang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.267-275
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    • 2023
  • This study predicted rice harvest date in South Korea using 11-year (2012-2022) hindcasts based on dynamically downscaled 2m air temperature at subseasonal (1-month lead) timescale. To obtain high (5 km) resolution meteorological information over South Korea, global prediction obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) double-nested modeling system. To estimate rice harvest date, the growing degree days (GDD) is used, which accumulated the daily temperature from the seeding date (1 Jan.) to the reference temperature (1400℃ + 55 days) for harvest. In terms of the maximum (minimum) temperatures, the hindcasts tends to have a cold bias of about 1. 2℃ (0. 1℃) for the rice growth period (May to October) compared to the observation. The harvest date derived from hindcasts (DOY 289) well simulates one from observation (DOY 280), despite a margin of 9 days. The study shows the possibility of obtaining the detailed predictive information for rice harvest date over South Korea based on the dynamical downscaling method.

Gridding of Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation Station (AMOS) Temperature Data Using Optimal Kriging with Lapse Rate Correction (기온감률 보정과 최적크리깅을 이용한 산악기상관측망 기온자료의 우리나라 500미터 격자화)

  • Youjeong Youn;Seoyeon Kim;Jonggu Kang;Yemin Jeong;Soyeon Choi;Yungyo Im;Youngmin Seo;Myoungsoo Won;Junghwa Chun;Kyungmin Kim;Keunchang Jang;Joongbin Lim;Yangwon Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_1
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    • pp.715-727
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    • 2023
  • To provide detailed and appropriate meteorological information in mountainous areas, the Korea Forest Service has established an Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation Station (AMOS) network in major mountainous regions since 2012, and 464 stations are currently operated. In this study, we proposed an optimal kriging technique with lapse rate correction to produce gridded temperature data suitable for Korean forests using AMOS point observations. First, the outliers of the AMOS temperature data were removed through statistical processing. Then, an optimized theoretical variogram, which best approximates the empirical variogram, was derived to perform the optimal kriging with lapse rate correction. A 500-meter resolution Kriging map for temperature was created to reflect the elevation variations in Korean mountainous terrain. A blind evaluation of the method using a spatially unbiased validation sample showed a correlation coefficient of 0.899 to 0.953 and an error of 0.933 to 1.230℃, indicating a slight accuracy improvement compared to regular kriging without lapse rate correction. However, the critical advantage of the proposed method is that it can appropriately represent the complex terrain of Korean forests, such as local variations in mountainous areas and coastal forests in Gangwon province and topographical differences in Jirisan and Naejangsan and their surrounding forests.

Application and Comparative Analysis of River Discharge Estimation Methods Using Surface Velocity (표면유속을 이용한 하천 유량산정방법의 적용 및 비교 분석)

  • Jae Hyun, Song;Seok Geun Park;Chi Young Kim;Hung Soo Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.15-32
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    • 2023
  • There are some difficulties such as safety problem and need of manpower in measuring discharge by submerging the instruments because of many floating debris and very fast flow in the river during the flood season. As an alternative, microwave water surface current meters have been increasingly used these days, which are easy to measure the discharge in the field without contacting the water surface directly. But it is also hard to apply the method in the sudden and rapidly changing field conditions. Therefore, the estimation of the discharge using the surface velocity in flood conditions requires a theoretical and economical approach. In this study, the measurements from microwave water surface current meter and rating curve were collected and then analyzed by the discharge estimation method using the surface velocity. Generally, the measured and converted discharge are analyzed to be similar in all methods at a hydraulic radius of 3 m or over or a mean velocity of 2 ㎧ or more. Besides, the study computed the discharge by the index velocity method and the velocity profile method with the maximum surface velocity in the section where the maximum velocity occurs at the high water level range of the rating curve among the target locations. As a result, the mean relative error with the converted discharge was within 10%. That is, in flood season, the discharge estimation method using one maximum surface velocity measurement, index velocity method, and velocity profile method can be applied to develop high-level extrapolation, therefore, it is judged that the reliability for the range of extrapolation estimation could be improved. Therefore, the discharge estimation method using the surface velocity is expected to become a fast and efficient discharge measurement method during the flood season.

Derivation of Stem Taper Equations and a Stem Volume Table for Quercus acuta in a Warm Temperate Region (난대지역 붉가시나무의 수간곡선식 도출 및 수간재적표 작성)

  • Suyoung Jung;Kwangsoo Lee;Hyunsoo Kim; Joonhyung Park;Jaeyeop Kim;Chunhee Park;Yeongmo Son
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.4
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    • pp.417-425
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    • 2023
  • The aim of this study was to derive stem taper equations for Quercus acuta, one of main evergreen broad-leaved tree species found in warm temperate regions, and to prepare a stem volume table using those stem taper equations. A total of 688 individual trees were used in the analysis, which were collected from Jeonnam-do, Gyeongnam-do, and Jeju-do. The stem taper models applied to derive the stem curve pattern were the Max and Burkhart, Kozak, and Lee models. Among the three stem taper models, the best explanation of the stem curve shape of Q. acuta was found to be given by the Kozak model, which showed a fitness index of 0.9583, bias of 0.0352, percentage of estimated standard error of 1.1439, and mean absolute deviation of 0.6751. Thus, the stem taper of Q. acuta was estimated using the Kozak model. Moreover,thestemvolumecalculationwasperforme d by applying the Smalian formula to the diameter and height of each stem interval. In addition, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) was conducted to compare the two existing Q. acuta stem volume tables (2007 and 2010) and the newly created stem volume table (2023). This analysis revealed that the stem volume table constructed in the Wando region in 2007 included about twice as much as the stem volume tables constructed in 2010 and 2023. The stem volume table (2023) developed in this study is not only based on the regional collection range and number of utilized trees but also on a sound scientific basis. Therefore, it can be used at the national level as an official stem volume table for Q. acuta.

Gap-Filling of Sentinel-2 NDVI Using Sentinel-1 Radar Vegetation Indices and AutoML (Sentinel-1 레이더 식생지수와 AutoML을 이용한 Sentinel-2 NDVI 결측화소 복원)

  • Youjeong Youn;Jonggu Kang;Seoyeon Kim;Yemin Jeong;Soyeon Choi;Yungyo Im;Youngmin Seo;Myoungsoo Won;Junghwa Chun;Kyungmin Kim;Keunchang Jang;Joongbin Lim;Yangwon Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.6_1
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    • pp.1341-1352
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    • 2023
  • The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from satellite images is a crucial tool to monitor forests and agriculture for broad areas because the periodic acquisition of the data is ensured. However, optical sensor-based vegetation indices(VI) are not accessible in some areas covered by clouds. This paper presented a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) based approach to retrieval of the optical sensor-based NDVI using machine learning. SAR system can observe the land surface day and night in all weather conditions. Radar vegetation indices (RVI) from the Sentinel-1 vertical-vertical (VV) and vertical-horizontal (VH) polarizations, surface elevation, and air temperature are used as the input features for an automated machine learning (AutoML) model to conduct the gap-filling of the Sentinel-2 NDVI. The mean bias error (MAE) was 7.214E-05, and the correlation coefficient (CC) was 0.878, demonstrating the feasibility of the proposed method. This approach can be applied to gap-free nationwide NDVI construction using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images for environmental monitoring and resource management.