• Title/Summary/Keyword: 오차추정

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The optimal parameter estimation of storage function model based on the dynamic effect (동적효과를 고려한 저류함수모형의 최적 매개변수 결정)

  • Kim Jong-Rae;Kim Joo-Cheal;Jeong Dong-Kook;Kim Jae-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.7 s.168
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    • pp.593-603
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    • 2006
  • The basin response to storm is regarded as nonlinearity inherently. In addition, the consistent nonlinearity of hydrologic system response to rainfall has been very tough and cumbersome to be treated analytically. The thing is that such nonlinear models have been avoided because of computational difficulties in identifying the model parameters from recorded data. The parameters of nonlinear system considered as dynamic effects in the conceptual model are optimized as the sum of errors between the observed and computed runoff is minimized. For obtaining the optimal parameters of functions, the historical data for the Bocheong watershed in the Geum river basin were tested by applying the numerical methods, such as quasi-linearization technique, Runge-Kutta procedure, and pattern-search method. The estimated runoff carried through from the storage function with dynamic effects was compared with the one of 1st-order differential equation model expressing just nonlinearity, and also done with Nash model. It was found that the 2nd-order model yields a better prediction of the hydrograph from each storm than the 1st-order model. However, the 2nd-order model was shown to be equivalent to Nash model when it comes to results. As a result, the parameters of nonlinear 2nd-order differential equation model performed from the present study provided not only a considerable physical meaning but also a applicability to Korean watersheds.

Development of TANK_GS Model to Consider the Interaction between Surface Water and Groundwater (지표수-지하수 상호흐름을 고려한 TANK_GS 모형의 개발)

  • Lee, Woo-Seok;Chung, Eun-Sung;Kim, Sang-Ug;Lee, Kil-Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.10
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    • pp.893-909
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to consider the interaction between surface water and groundwater in basin scale by developing TANK_GS model. The soil moisture structure of tank model with 3 tanks is improved to simulate the appropriate stream-aquifer interactions. Maximum likelihood method is applied to calibrate parameters with variance functions to deal with heteroscedasticity of residuals. The parameters of improved TANK_GS model and variance function are simultaneously estimated by Simulated Annealing method, a global optimization technique. The results of TANK-GE are compared to those of the SWMM-GE model which had been developed to consider the stream-aquifer interactions. The new TANK_GS model and SWMM-GE model are applied to Gapcheon basin, which belongs to Geum River basin. TANK_GS model showed better model performance compared to the original TANK model and characterized the relationship of stream-aquifer interactions as satisfactorily as the SWMM-GE model. The sustainable groundwater yield can be estimated for the regional water resources planning using the TANK_GS model

Operation analysis and application of modified slope-area method for the estimation of discharge in multi-function weir (다기능보의 방류량 산정 개선을 위한 운영 분석 및 수정 경사-면적법의 적용)

  • Oh, Ji-Hwan;Jang, Suk-Hwan;Oh, Kyoung-Doo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.8
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    • pp.687-701
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    • 2018
  • A multi-function weir is representative control structure in the stream flow. Estimation of accurate flood discharge according to gate operations and prediction of floodwave travel times at the downstream are very important in terms of water use and river management. This study analyzed the limitation and improvement through the current gate operation data on the Young-san river. in addition, flood discharge was calculated considering lower and upper water level condition and gate operating using the modified slope-area method in the Seoung-chon weir. As a result, the current state was required improvement because exceed the theoretical range and rapidly fluctuation of discharge coefficient, can not be considered difference between the upper and lower water level and the estimation by the regression equation. As a result of applying the proposed method in this study, the above mentioned limitations can be compensated, compared with the current discharge data. Also it was analyzed as more physically valid because using the evaluated hydraulic equation and estimate the slope and friction loss of natural stream by iteration and to reduce the error. In conclusion, the process carried out serves as a representative flow control point of the water system through reliable discharge estimation, it is expected that it will be possible to properly river management.

Gender differences in the impact of socioeconomic, health-related, and health behavioral factors on the health-related quality of life of the Korean elderly (노인의 사회경제적 상태, 건강상태, 건강행태와 건강관련 삶의 질의 관계: 성별 차이를 중심으로)

  • Moon, Seongmi
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.259-271
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    • 2017
  • The present study was designed to examine the impact of socioeconomic, health-related, and health behavioral factors on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of the Korean elderly by gender. The subjects comprised 688 men and 898 women aged 65 or more who had participated in the Sixth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted in 2014. The associations of factors with the HRQoL as measured with the European Quality of Life 5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) Index were examined in a general linear model. The most influential factor on the HRQoL was depression in both men and women. The perceived health status and walking activity were also associated with the HRQoL in both men and women. The living arrangement and educational status were associated with the HRQoL in women, while the body mass index was associated with the HRQOL in men. Depression management and the promotion of walking activity are essential to the HRQoL of the Korean elderly. Particular attention must be paid to the HRQoL of older women who live alone and have a lower level of education.

The Utilization Probability Model of Expressway Service Area based on Individual Travel Behaviors Using Vehicle Trajectory Data (차량궤적자료를 활용한 통행행태 기반 고속도로 휴게소 이용 확률 모형 개발)

  • Bang, DaeHwan;Lee, YoungIhn;Chang, HyunHo;Han, DongHee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2018
  • A Service Area plays an important role in preventing accidents in advance by creating a space for long distance drivers or drowsy drivers to rest. Therefore, proper positioning of the expressway service area is essential, and it is important to analyze accurate demand forecasting and user travel behavior. Thus, this study analysis travel behavior and developed odel of the probability of using the service area by using the DSRC data collected by the RSE on the highway. According to the analysis, the usage behavior of highway service areas was most frequently when travel time was 90 minutes or more on weekdays and 70 minutes or more on weekends. The utilization rate of the service area estimated from the probability model of use of the rest area in this study was 1 % to 2 % error. The results of this study are meaningful in analyzing the behavior of the use of rest areas using the structured data and can be used as a differentiated strategy for selecting the location of rest areas and enhancing the service level of users.

Model Identification for Control System Design of a Commercial 12-inch Rapid Thermal Processor (상업용 12인치 급속가열장치의 제어계 설계를 위한 모델인식)

  • Yun, Woohyun;Ji, Sang Hyun;Na, Byung-Cheol;Won, Wangyun;Lee, Kwang Soon
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.486-491
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    • 2008
  • This paper describes a model identification method that has been applied to a commercial 12-inch RTP (rapid thermal processing) equipment with an ultimate aim to develop a high-performance advanced controller. Seven thermocouples are attached on the wafer surface and twelve tungsten-halogen lamp groups are used to heat up the wafer. To obtain a MIMO balanced state space model, multiple SIMO (single-input multiple-output) identification with highorder ARX models have been conducted and the resulting models have been combined, transformed and reduced to a MIMO balanced state space model through a balanced truncation technique. The identification experiments were designed to minimize the wafer warpage and an output linearization block has been proposed for compensation of the nonlinearity from the radiation-dominant heat transfer. As a result from the identification at around 600, 700, and $800^{\circ}C$, respectively, it was found that $y=T(K)^2$ and the state dimension of 80-100 are most desirable. With this choice the root-mean-square value of the one-step-ahead temperature prediction error was found to be in the range of 0.125-0.135 K.

GIS and Geographically Weighted Regression in the Survey Research of Small Areas (지역 단위 조사연구와 공간정보의 활용 : 지리정보시스템과 지리적 가중 회귀분석을 중심으로)

  • Jo, Dong-Gi
    • Survey Research
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2009
  • This study investigates the utilities of spatial analysis in the context of survey research using Geographical Information System(GIS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) which take account of spatial heterogeneity. Many social phenomena involve spatial dimension, and with the development of GIS, GPS receiver, and online location-based services, spatial information can be collected and utilized more easily, and thus application of spatial analysis in the survey research is getting easier. The traditional OLS regression models which assume independence of observations and homoscedasticity of errors cannot handle spatial dependence problem. GWR is a spatial analysis technique which utilizes spatial information as well as attribute information, and estimated using geographically weighted function under the assumption that spatially close cases are more related than distant cases. Residential survey data from a Primary Autonomous District are used to estimate a model of public service satisfaction. The findings show that GWR handles the problem of spatial auto-correlation and increases goodness-of-fit of model. Visualization of spatial variance of effects of the independent variables using GIS allows us to investigate effects and relationships of those variables more closely and extensively. Furthermore, GIS and GWR analyses provide us a more effective way of identifying locations where the effect of variable is exceptionally low or high, and thus finding policy implications for social development.

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A Study on the Correlation of Growth Factors in Phyllostachys Reticulata Kock and Phyllostachys Edulis Riv by Each site (지위별(地位別) 왕죽(王竹) 및 맹종죽(孟宗竹)에 있어서 생장인자(生長因子)의 상관관계(相關關係)에 대(對)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Chang Soo;Chung, Young Gwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.11-16
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    • 1968
  • 1. A Study was to delineate the correlation relationship growth factors, a) height and clear-length, b) height and circle of breast height, c) height and circle of ground height, d) height and crown length, of phyllostachys reticulata kock and phyllostachys edulis riv, 2. The formula applied to arrive at correlation coefficient according to correlation table, was $e=\frac{1-{\mu}^2}{\sqrt{\Sigma}X^2y^2}$ the formula for average error was $e=0.6745\frac{1-{\mu}^2}{\sqrt{n}}$ 3. The correlation coefficient and average error by each species were as three tables. 4. Area of the sample plot were 0.5~1 acres. 5. Height, clear-length, circle of breast height, circle of ground height and crown-length of bamboos were measured by weise hypsometer and pole.

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A Development of Stem Analysis Program and its Comparison with other Method for Increment Calculation (수간석해(樹幹析解) 전산(電算)프로그램 개발(開發) 및 생장량(生長量) 계산방법(計算方法)의 비교(比較)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Byun, Woo Hyuk;Lee, Woo Kyun;Yun, Kwang Bae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.79 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 1990
  • In this study the stem analysis program, which can be operated with personal computer was developed to reduce time and cost of calculation, and to increase accuracy of analysis. The stem analysis method used in this program was compared with other methods. The results obtained were as follows : The value, 1/100mm measured from the latest annual ring measurement machine (Jahrringme${\beta}$geraete Johan Type II) was automatically inputed to the computer and saved into given file name. Turbo Pascal program was written to do this. The measured data was analyzed by stem analysis calculation program written by Fortran-77. Volume and height increments were approximated by spline function, and diameter of the stem disk was calculated by quadratic mean method. The increment values calculated by the programs were printed annually and in every five-year. Stem analysis diagram and several increment graphs were also easily printed. The result compared between those analysis methods showed that quadratic mean could reduce the error caused from eccentric pith. When the stem taper curve method, approximated by spline function, was used in the calculation of tree height and volume, increments would be more exactly calculated.

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Feasibility Study for Development of Transit Dosimetry Based Patient Dose Verification System Using the Glass Dosimeter (유리선량계를 이용한 투과선량 기반 환자선량 평가 시스템 개발을 위한 가능성 연구)

  • Jeong, Seonghoon;Yoon, Myonggeun;Kim, Dong Wook;Chung, Weon Kuu;Chung, Mijoo;Choi, Sang Hyoun
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.241-249
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    • 2015
  • As radiation therapy is one of three major cancer treatment methods, many cancer patients get radiation therapy. To exposure as much radiation to cancer while normal tissues near tumor get little radiation, medical physicists make a radiotherapy plan treatment and perform quality assurance before patient treatment. Despite these efforts, unintended medical accidents can occur by some errors. In order to solve the problem, patient internal dose reconstruction methods by measuring transit dose are suggested. As feasibility study for development of patient dose verification system, inverse square law, percentage depth dose and scatter factor are used to calculate dose in the water-equivalent homogeneous phantom. As a calibration results of ionization chamber and glass dosimeter to transit radiation, signals of glass dosimeter are 0.824 times at 6 MV and 0.736 times at 10 MV compared to dose measured by ionization chamber. Average scatter factor is 1.4 and Mayneord F factor was used to apply percentage depth dose data. When we verified the algorithm using the water-equivalent homogeneous phantom, maximum error was 1.65%.