• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 모형

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An Economic Analysis of the Effluent Heat Supply from Thermal Power Plant to the Farm Facility House (화력발전소 온배수열 활용 시설하우스 열공급 모형 경제성분석 연구)

  • Um, Byung Hwan;Ahn, Cha Su
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.6-13
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    • 2018
  • Utilizing the heat of cooling water discharge of coal-fired power plant, pipeline investment costs for businesses that supply heat to agricultural facilities near power plants increase in proportion to installation distance. On one hand, the distance from the power plant is a factor that brings difficulties to secure economic efficiency. On the other, if the installation distance is short, there is a problem of securing the heating demands, facility houses, which causes economical efficiency to suffer. In this study, the economic efficiency of 1km length of standard heat pipeline was evaluated. The sensitivity of the heat pipe to the new length variation was analyzed at the level of government subsidy, amount of heating demand and the incremental rate of pipeline with additional government subsidy. As a result of the analysis, it was estimated that NPV 131 million won and IRR 15.73%. The sensitivity analysis showed that NPV was negative when the length of heat pipe facility exceeded 2.6 km. If the government supports 50% of the initial investment, the efficiency is secured within the estimated length of 5.3 km, and if it supports 80%, the length increases within 11.4 km. If the heat demand is reduced to less than 62% at the new length of the standard heat pipe, it is expected economic efficiency is not obtained. If the ratio of government subsidies to initial investment increases, the elasticity of the new bloc will increase, and the fixed investment, which is the cost of capital investment for one unit of heating demand, will decrease. This would result in a reduction in the cost of production per unit, and it would be possible to supply heat at a cheaper price level to the facility farming. Government subsidies will result in the increased economic availability of hot plumbing facilities and additional efficiencies due to increased demand. The greater government subsidies to initial investment, the less farms cost due to the decrease in the price per unit. The results of the study are significant in terms of the economic evaluation of the effectiveness of the government subsidy for the thermal power plant heat utilization project. The implication can be applied to any related pilot to come.

Innovation Technology Development & Commercialization Promotion of R&D Performance to Domestic Renewable Energy (신재생에너지 기술혁신 개발과 R&D성과 사업화 촉진 방안)

  • Lee, Yong-Seok;Rho, Do-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.788-818
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    • 2009
  • Renewable energy refers to solar energy, biomass energy, hydrogen energy, wind power, fuel cell, coal liquefaction and vaporization, marine energy, waste energy, and liquidity fuel made out of byproduct of geothermal heat, hydrogen and coal; it excludes energy based on coal, oil, nuclear energy and natural gas. Developed countries have recognized the importance of these energies and thus have set the mid to long term plans to develop and commercialize the technology and supported them with drastic political and financial measures. Considering the growing recognition to the field, it is necessary to analysis up-to-now achievement of the government's related projects, in the standards of type of renewable energy, management of sectional goals, and its commercialization. Korean government is chiefly following suit the USA and British policies of developing and distributing renewable energy. However, unlike Japan which is in the lead role in solar rays industry, it still lacks in state-directed support, participation of enterprises and social recognition. The research regarding renewable energy has mainly examinedthe state of supply of each technology and suitability of specific region for applying the technology. The evaluation shows that the research has been focused on supply and demand of renewable as well as general energy and solution for the enhancement of supply capacity in certain area. However, in-depth study for commercialization and the increase of capacity in industry followed by development of the technology is still inadequate. 'Cost-benefit model for each energy source' is used in analysis of technology development of renewable energy and quantitative and macro economical effects of its commercialization in order to foresee following expand in related industries and increase in added value. First, Investment on the renewable energy technology development is in direct proportion both to the product and growth, but product shows slightly higher index under the same amount of R&D investment than growth. It indicates that advance in technology greatly influences the final product, the energy growth. Moreover, while R&D investment on renewable energy product as well as the government funds included in the investment have proportionate influence on the renewable energy growth, private investment in the total amount invested has reciprocal influence. This statistic shows that research and development is mainly driven by government funds rather than private investment. Finally, while R&D investment on renewable energy growth affects proportionately, government funds and private investment shows no direct relations, which indicates that the effects of research and development on renewable energy do not affect government funds or private investment. All of the results signify that although it is important to have government policy in technology development and commercialization, private investment and active participation of enterprises are the key to the success in the industry.

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The Suitable Region and Site for 'Fuji' Apple Under the Projected Climate in South Korea (미래 시나리오 기후조건하에서의 사과 '후지' 품종 재배적지 탐색)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Chung, U-Ran;Kim, Seung-Heui;Choi, In-Myung;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.162-173
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    • 2009
  • Information on the expected geographical shift of suitable zones for growing crops under future climate is a starting point of adaptation planning in agriculture and is attracting much concern from policy makers as well as researchers. Few practical schemes have been developed, however, because of the difficulty in implementing the site-selection concept at an analytical level. In this study, we suggest site-selection criteria for quality Fuji apple production and integrate geospatial data and information available in public domains (e.g., digital elevation model, digital soil maps, digital climate maps, and predictive models for agroclimate and fruit quality) to implement this concept on a GIS platform. Primary criterion for selecting sites suitable for Fuji apple production includes land cover, topography, and soil texture. When the primary criterion is satisfied, climatic conditions such as the length of frost free season, freezing risk during the overwintering period, and the late frost risk in spring are tested as the secondary criterion. Finally, the third criterion checks for fruit quality such as color and shape. Land attributes related to these factors in each criterion were implemented in ArcGIS environment as relevant raster layers for spatial analysis, and retrieval procedures were automated by writing programs compatible with ArcGIS. This scheme was applied to the A1B projected climates for South Korea in the future normal years (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) as well as the current climate condition observed in 1971-2000 for selecting the sites suitable for quality Fuji apple production in each period. Results showed that this scheme can figure out the geographical shift of suitable zones at landscape scales as well as the latitudinal shift of northern limit for cultivation at national or regional scales.

Assessment of climate change impact on aquatic ecology health indices in Han river basin using SWAT and random forest (SWAT 및 random forest를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 한강유역의 수생태계 건강성 지수 영향 평가)

  • Woo, So Young;Jung, Chung Gil;Kim, Jin Uk;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.863-874
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on stream aquatic ecology health of Han River watershed ($34,148km^2$) using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and random forest. The 8 years (2008~2015) spring (April to June) Aquatic ecology Health Indices (AHI) such as Trophic Diatom Index (TDI), Benthic Macroinvertebrate Index (BMI) and Fish Assessment Index (FAI) scored (0~100) and graded (A~E) by NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research) were used. The 8 years NIER indices with the water quality (T-N, $NH_4$, $NO_3$, T-P, $PO_4$) showed that the deviation of AHI score is large when the concentration of water quality is low, and AHI score had negative correlation when the concentration is high. By using random forest, one of the Machine Learning techniques for classification analysis, the classification results for the 3 indices grade showed that all of precision, recall, and f1-score were above 0.81. The future SWAT hydrology and water quality results under HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) showed that the future nitrogen-related water quality in watershed average increased up to 43.2% by the baseflow increase effect and the phosphorus-related water quality decreased up to 18.9% by the surface runoff decrease effect. The future FAI and BMI showed a little better Index grade while the future TDI showed a little worse index grade. We can infer that the future TDI is more sensitive to nitrogen-related water quality and the future FAI and BMI are responded to phosphorus-related water quality.

Origin-Destination Estimation Based on Cellular Phone's Base Station (휴대폰 기지국 정보를 이용한 O/D 추정기법 연구)

  • Kim, Si-Gon;Yu, Byeong-Seok;Gang, Seung-Pil
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2005
  • An Origin-Destination (O/D) is considered as one of the important information in route choices and trip assignments. A household interview survey is deemed to be the traditional and the most widely used method in making sample O/D and its conversion to the total O/D. Some researchers have studied to estimate dynamic O/D from the relationship between link volumes and trip assignment model. Nowadays, owing to the recent rapid spread of cellular phones. Location information of the cellular phone through the Base Station(BS) is considered as an alternative to O/D estimation. In this study, the methodology of generating BS-based O/D and the methodology of converting this O/D into an administrative district-based O/D are proposed. The information of GPS positions and cellular BS positions have acquired by establishing GPS equipment and cellular phone on taxies in Cheongju. Three weeks data are collected and used in estimating O/D by matching them on a digital map. Scatter diagram and sample correlation coefficients are used to investigate the similarity of the GPS-based O/D pattern among weeks, among days, and among times in day. The results show that there are few significant differences among weeks. But there is a difference in O/C pattern between weekday and weekend. Furthermore, there is a difference between morning peak and afternoon peak. Two methodologies are proposed to convert BS-based O/D into an administrative district-based O/D. The first one is to use the distribution pattern of GPS coordinates, the other is to use the coverage area of the BSs. To validate such converted O/D, GPS O/D is used as a true value. The statical analyses through scatter diagram, MAE and RMSE shows that there is few significant defference of pattern between the estimated BS-based O/D and GPS O/D. In the case of using only cellular information, the methodology using coverage area of the BSs is recommended for estimating O/D.

The Effect of Increase in Length and Volume of Source in Radioactive Iodine Thyroid Uptake Rate (갑상선 섭취율 측정에서 선원의 길이와 부피 증가에 따른 영향)

  • Hwang, Dong Hun;Oh, Shin Hyun;Kim, Jung Yul;Kang, Chun Koo;Kim, Jae Sam
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.70-75
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    • 2017
  • Purpose Radioactive iodine thyroid uptake (RAIU) rate is an examination which determines and seeks about general functions of thyroid gland. The size of thyroid gland is normally different between each person, also patients having thyroid diseases have had a variety of size of thyroid gland compared with others. The purpose of this study will investigate about the counting rate which is effected by the geometric factors through the length and volume changes of the source in RAIU rate. Materials and Methods I-131 185 kBq ($5{\mu}Ci$) were placed in a cylindrical phantom of 0.5 cm, 1 cm, 1.5 cm, and 3 cm in diameter, respectively, and saline was added to gradually increase the length by 1 cm in the horizontal and vertical directions to give a change in volume. The source was measured 20 times for 20 seconds from a distance of 25 cm to $364.4keV{\pm}20%$ energy ROI with Captus 3000 thyroid uptake system (Capintec, NJ, USA). Results When the source was located in the transverse direction of the detector, the consequence of one-way ANOVA is that even though the length of source is increased each diameter, there is mostly no significant difference. When the source was located in the longitudinal direction and the counting rate of length 1 cm at all diameter is set to 100%, the average is 92.57% for length 2 cm, 86.1% for 3 cm, 80.69% for 4 cm, 74.82% for 5 cm, and 69.68% at 6 cm. Conclusion According to this study, it is expected that the gap of RAIU rate has been depended on the thickness of thyroid gland as well as the diameter of the beaker. We know that the change of the volume with the increase of the length of the source had less effect on the change of the counting rate. Thus, in order to reduce the error in the measurement of the counting rate with the thyroid uptake rate equipment, an accurate counting rate can be relatively measured if the counting rate which is measured is corrected by thickness or the distance between the thyroid and the thyroid uptake rate equipment is changed.

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Characteristics of Pollution Loading from Kyongan Stream Watershed by BASINS/SWAT. (BASINS/SWAT 모델을 이용한 경안천 유역의 오염부하 배출 특성)

  • Jang, Jae-Ho;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong;Jung, Kwang-Wook;Lee, Sae-Bom
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.200-211
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    • 2009
  • A mathematical modeling program called Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) developed by USDA was applied to Kyongan stream watershed. It was run under BASINS (Better Assessment Science for Integrating point and Non-point Sources) program, and the model was calibrated and validated using KTMDL monitoring data of 2004${\sim}$2008. The model efficiency of flow ranged from very good to fair in comparison between simulated and observed data and it was good in the water quality parameters like flow range. The model reliability and performance were within the expectation considering complexity of the watershed and pollutant sources. The results of pollutant loads estimation as yearly (2004${\sim}$2008), pollutant loadings from 2006 were higher than rest of year caused by high precipitation and flow. Average non-point source (NPS) pollution rates were 30.4%, 45.3%, 28.1% for SS, TN and TP respectably. The NPS pollutant loading for SS, TN and TP during the monsoon rainy season (June to September) was about 61.8${\sim}$88.7% of total NPS pollutant loading, and flow volume was also in a similar range. SS concentration depended on precipitation and pollution loading patterns, but TN and TP concentration was not necessarily high during the rainy season, and showed a decreasing trend with increasing water flow. SWAT based on BASINS was applied to the Kyongan stream watershed successfully without difficulty, and it was found that the model could be used conveniently to assess watershed characteristics and to estimate pollutant loading including point and non-point sources in watershed scale.

The Correlations of Parameters Using Contrast Enhanced Ultrasonography in the Evaluation of Prostate Cancer Angiogenesis (전립선암쥐모형의 신생혈관생성의 평가를 위해 시행된 역동적 조영 증강 초음파에서 얻은 변수간의 상관성연구)

  • Hwang, Sung Il;Lee, Hak Jong;Kim, Kil Joong;Chung, Jin-haeng;Jung, Hyun Sook;Jeon, Jong June
    • Ultrasonography
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.132-142
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlations of various kinetic parameters derived from the time intensity curve in a xenograft mouse model injected with a prostate cancer model (PC-3 and LNCaP) using an ultrasound contrast agent with histopathologic parameters. Materials and Methods: Twenty nude mice were injected with human prostate cancer cells (15 PC-3 and five LNCaP) on their hind limbs. A bolus of $500{\mu}L$ ($1{\times}10^8$ microbubbles) of second-generation US contrast agent (SonoVue) was injected into the retroorbital vein. The region of interest was drawn over the entire tumor. The time intensity curve was acquired and then fitted to a gamma variate function. The maximal intensity (A), time to peak (Tp), maximal wash-in rate (washin), washout rate (washout), area under the curve up to 50 sec ($AUC_{50}$), area under the ascending slope ($AUC_{in}$), and area under the descending slope ($AUC_{out}$) were derived from the parameters of the gamma variate fit. Immunohistochemical staining for VEGF and CD31 was performed. Tumor volume, the area percentage of VEGF stained in a field, and the count of CD31 (microvessel density, MVD) positive vessels showed correlation with the parameters from the time intensity curve. Results: No significant differences were observed between the kinetic and histopathological parameters from each group. MVD showed positive correlation with A (r=0.625, p=0.003), washin (r=0.462, p=0.040), $AUC_{50}$ (r=0.604, p=0.005), and $AUC_{out}$ (r=0.587, p=0.007). Positive correlations were also observed between tumor volume and $AUC_{50}$ (r=0.481, p=0.032), washin (r=0.662, p=0.001), and $AUC_{out}$ (r=0.547, p=0.012). Washout showed negative correlations with MVD (r=-0.454, p=0.044) and tumor volume (r=-0.464, p=0.039). The area percentage of VEGF did not show any correlation with calculated data from the curve. Conclusion: MVD showed correlations with several of the kinetic parameters. CEUS has the potential for prediction of tumor vascularity in a prostate cancer animal model.

Development of Music Recommendation System based on Customer Sentiment Analysis (소비자 감성 분석 기반의 음악 추천 알고리즘 개발)

  • Lee, Seung Jun;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.197-217
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    • 2018
  • Music is one of the most creative act that can express human sentiment with sound. Also, since music invoke people's sentiment to get empathized with it easily, it can either encourage or discourage people's sentiment with music what they are listening. Thus, sentiment is the primary factor when it comes to searching or recommending music to people. Regard to the music recommendation system, there are still lack of recommendation systems that are based on customer sentiment. An algorithm's that were used in previous music recommendation systems are mostly user based, for example, user's play history and playlists etc. Based on play history or playlists between multiple users, distance between music were calculated refer to basic information such as genre, singer, beat etc. It can filter out similar music to the users as a recommendation system. However those methodology have limitations like filter bubble. For example, if user listen to rock music only, it would be hard to get hip-hop or R&B music which have similar sentiment as a recommendation. In this study, we have focused on sentiment of music itself, and finally developed methodology of defining new index for music recommendation system. Concretely, we are proposing "SWEMS" index and using this index, we also extracted "Sentiment Pattern" for each music which was used for this research. Using this "SWEMS" index and "Sentiment Pattern", we expect that it can be used for a variety of purposes not only the music recommendation system but also as an algorithm which used for buildup predicting model etc. In this study, we had to develop the music recommendation system based on emotional adjectives which people generally feel when they listening to music. For that reason, it was necessary to collect a large amount of emotional adjectives as we can. Emotional adjectives were collected via previous study which is related to them. Also more emotional adjectives has collected via social metrics and qualitative interview. Finally, we could collect 134 individual adjectives. Through several steps, the collected adjectives were selected as the final 60 adjectives. Based on the final adjectives, music survey has taken as each item to evaluated the sentiment of a song. Surveys were taken by expert panels who like to listen to music. During the survey, all survey questions were based on emotional adjectives, no other information were collected. The music which evaluated from the previous step is divided into popular and unpopular songs, and the most relevant variables were derived from the popularity of music. The derived variables were reclassified through factor analysis and assigned a weight to the adjectives which belongs to the factor. We define the extracted factors as "SWEMS" index, which describes sentiment score of music in numeric value. In this study, we attempted to apply Case Based Reasoning method to implement an algorithm. Compare to other methodology, we used Case Based Reasoning because it shows similar problem solving method as what human do. Using "SWEMS" index of each music, an algorithm will be implemented based on the Euclidean distance to recommend a song similar to the emotion value which given by the factor for each music. Also, using "SWEMS" index, we can also draw "Sentiment Pattern" for each song. In this study, we found that the song which gives a similar emotion shows similar "Sentiment Pattern" each other. Through "Sentiment Pattern", we could also suggest a new group of music, which is different from the previous format of genre. This research would help people to quantify qualitative data. Also the algorithms can be used to quantify the content itself, which would help users to search the similar content more quickly.

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Particulate Matter over South Korea and Their Future Projection (한반도 미세먼지 발생과 연관된 대기패턴 그리고 미래 전망)

  • Lee, Hyun-Ju;Jeong, YeoMin;Kim, Seon-Tae;Lee, Woo-Seop
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.423-433
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    • 2018
  • Particulate matter air pollution is a serious problem affecting human health and visibility. The variations in $PM_{10}$ concentrations are influenced by not only local emission sources, but also atmospheric circulation conditions. In this study, we investigate the temporal features of $PM_{10}$ concentrations in South Korea and the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with high concentration episodes of $PM_{10}$ during winter (December-January-February) 2001-2016. Based on those analyses, a Korea Particulate matter Index (KPI) is developed to represent the large-scale atmospheric pattern associated with high concentration episodes of $PM_{10}$. The atmospheric patterns are characterized by persistent high-pressure anomalies, weakened lower-level north-westerly anomalies, and northward shift of the upper-level meridional wind anomalies near the Korean Peninsula. To evaluate the change in occurrence of high concentration episodes of $PM_{10}$ under a possible future warmer climate, we apply KPI analysis to CMIP5 climate simulations. Here, historical and two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are used. It is found that the occurrence of atmospheric conditions favorable for high $PM_{10}$ concentration episodes tends to increase over South Korea in response to climate change. This suggests that large-scale atmospheric circulation changes under future warmer climate can contribute to increasing high $PM_{10}$ concentration episodes in South Korea.