• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 모델링

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A Study on Generating a Coastal Flood Hazard Map (국내 적합한 연안침수지도제작에 관한 연구)

  • 원대희;김계현;박태옥;최현우;곽태식
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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    • 2004.03a
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    • pp.435-440
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    • 2004
  • 연안침수지도는 태풍이나 해일에 의한 연안침수 발생 시 방조제의 월류 및 붕괴로 인한 예상 침수구역을 강우빈도(200년)별로 나타내고, 침수면적과 깊이를 표현한 지도로서 국외 선진국에서 방재형 국토관리 정책결정과 침수피해에 대한 대민 홍보의 수단으로 활용되고 있다. 국내에서도 연안침수에 의한 피해가 나날이 커지고 국토의 개발에 따른 자연 재해가 많아짐에 따라 보다 방재형 국토개발로 국민의 안전과 복리를 증진하고, 연안침수에 의한 피해를 최소화하기 위한 노력의 일환으로 연안침수지도의 제작 필요성이 증대되고 있다. 본 연구의 시범지역인 대부도 남부지역의 GIS 데이터베이스 구축은 문헌조사 및 기구축 데이터 확보, 지역의 특성에 맞는 신규 GIS 데이터베이스 구축 방법을 제시하였다. 침수구역을 예측하기 위한 모델링을 지원하기 위한 정확도와 경제성, 객관성, 현실성이 높은 지형공간자료의 효율적인 구축이 강조되었다. 구축한 데이터베이스의 세부 유형은 침수위험구역, 침수경계구역, 침수량 화살표이며, 기존에 구축된 데이터를 활용한 레이어는 해안선, 도로, 건물, 등고선, 등심선, 연안 표고점 측량데이터이다. 연안침수지도는 효율적인 재난관리를 위하여 다양하게 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료되며 나아가 주민의 침수에 대한 경각심 고취와 사전 교육, 지방자치단체의 침수위험 관리업무의 활용이 가능할 것으로 사료된다. 본 연구에서 제작된 연안침수지도는 지자체 주민들을 위해 보기 쉽고 다양한 정보를 얻을 수 있도록 제작되었으며, 이를 위해 사진과 삽화를 추가하여 주민들에게 침수피해에 대한 경각심과 이해를 높이는데 중점을 두었다. 유지관리 후 활용체계 정비의 중요성’을 점검하고, ‘변동자료 발생원인의 분석’, ‘명확한 변동자료 입력 근거의 확보’, ‘갱신주체별 역할의 정의 및 유지관리 기준의 설정’, ‘분야별업무 특성을 고려한 관련 기준의 마련 및 타 시스템과 연계되는 항목을 고려한 절차 정의’ 등에 대한 다양한 접근을 시도하였다. 본 연구에서 제시하는 유지관리 모델을 기반으로 각 지자체별로 적절한 컨설팅이 진행되고 이에 따라 담당자의 실천이 이루어진다면 지자체 GIS의 투자대비 효과에 대한 기대는 이상이 아닌 현실로 다가오게 될 것이다.가오게 될 것이다. 동일하게 25%의 소유권을 가지고 있다. ?스굴 시추사업은 2008년까지 수행될 계획이며, 시추작업은 2005년까지 완료될 계획이다. 연구 진행과 관련하여, 공동연구의 명분을 높이고 분석의 효율성을 높이기 위해서 시료채취 및 기초자료 획득은 4개국의 연구원이 모여 공동으로 수행한 후의 결과물을 서로 공유하고, 자세한 전문분야 연구는 각 국의 대표기관이 독립적으로 수행하는 방식을 택하였다 ?스굴에 대한 제1차 시추작업은 2004년 3월 말에 실시하였다. 시추작업 결과, 약 80m의 시추 코아가 성공적으로 회수되어 현재 러시아 이르쿠츠크 지구화학연구소에 보관중이다. 이 시추코아는 2004년 8월 중순경에 4개국 연구팀원들에 의해 공동으로 기재된 후에 분할될 계획이다. 분할된 시료는 국내로 운반되어 다양한 전문분야별 연구에 이용될 것이다. 한편, 제2차 시추작업은 2004년 12월에서 2005년 2월 사이에 실시될 계획이다. 수백만년에 이르는 장기간에 걸쳐 지구환경변화 기록이 보존되어 있는

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Modeling the Spatial Distribution of Roe Deer (Capreolus pygargus) in Jeju Island (제주 노루(Capreolus pygargus)의 서식지 선호도 분석)

  • KIM, A-Reum;LEE, Jae-Min;JANG, Gab-Sue
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.139-151
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    • 2017
  • The habitat preference of roe deers(Capreolus pygargus) in Jeju island, South Korea was analyzed by using their occurrence probability in MaxEnt model in this study. Totally 490 surveying data were gathered and 15 environmental variables were chosen for the model in which 6 variables out of 15 ones were filtered and finally removed because of there being higher correlation(over 0.7 in correlation coefficient). According to the modeling, roe deers were known to prefer the area ranging from 200 to 700 meter and over 1,500 meter in sea level, where there were not many dominant tree and/or dominant vegetation with low density so that understory vegetation can grow well with plentiful sunlight and can be used as a food of herbivore like roe deers. Otherwise, the region ranging from 700 to 1,500 meter was mostly covered with high density vegetation which cut off sunlight trying to penetrate through the dominant vegetation. It can cause a lower density of vegetation on surface, which can not attract to roe deers.

Running stability analysis of the Semi-Crawler Type Mini-Forwarder by Using a Dynamic Analysis Program (동역학분석 프로그램을 이용한 반궤도식 임내작업차의 주행안정성 분석)

  • Kim, Jae-Hwan;Park, Sang-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.104 no.1
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    • pp.98-103
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    • 2015
  • This study was conducted to analyze the running stability of a semi-crawler type mini-forwarder. The running stability analysis was performed by using a dynamic analysis program, RecurDyn. Physical properties of the semi-crawler type mini-forwarder was performed by using 3D CAD modeler, AutoCAD 3D. As a result from the computer simulation of stationary sideways overturning, it was found that the semi-crawler type mini-forwarder runs safely on a road with a slope not bigger than $20^{\circ}$ regardless whether it is empty or loaded, but in case of a road with a slope bigger than $20^{\circ}$, it is assumed that it is difficult for the car to run safely due to some dangers. In addition, it was found that the critical slope of its sideways overturning gets much smaller when empty since the location of its gravity center is elevated and much higher when it is loaded. As a result from the computer simulation of its hill-climbing ability, since the running speed is unstable in case of a road with a vertical slope not smaller than $28^{\circ}$, it is assumed that it is safe to drive it on a road with a slope not bigger than $28^{\circ}$. Taking a look at the result from an analysis of the running safety when it passes an obstacle, it was observed that a front tire comes off the ground when the running speed of the car is 5 and 4 km per hour respectively when it is empty and loaded while the gravity center of the front tire is watched. When taking a look at the changes in the location of the gravity center of the rear wheel crawler shaft, it was not found that the shaft comes off the ground at the test speeds both when it is empty and loaded.

Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD) Simulation for a Pilot-scale Selective Non-catalytic Reduction(SNCR) Process Using Urea Solution (요소용액을 이용한 파일럿규모 SNCR 공정에 대한 CFD 모델링 및 모사)

  • Nguyen, Thanh D.B.;Kang, Tae-Ho;Lim, Young-Il;Kim, Seong-Joon;Eom, Won-Hyeon;Yoo, Kyung-Seun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.922-930
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    • 2008
  • The selective non-catalytic reduction(SNCR) performance is sensitive to the process parameters such as flow velocity, reaction temperature and mixing of reagent(ammonia or urea) with the flue gases. Therefore, the knowledge of the velocity field, temperature field and species concentration distribution is crucial for the design and operation of an effective SNCR injection system. In this work, a full-scale two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics(CFD)-based reacting model involving a droplet model is built and validated with the data obtained from a pilot-scale urea-based SNCR reactor installed with a 150 kW LPG burner. The kinetic mechanism with seven reactions for nitrogen oxides($NO_x$) reduction by urea-water solution is used to predict $NO_x$ reduction and ammonia slip. Using the turbulent reacting flow CFD model involving the discrete droplet phase, the CFD simulation results show maximum 20% difference from the experimental data for NO reduction. For $NH_3$ slip, the simulation results have a similar tendency with the experimental data with regard to the temperature and the normalized stoichiometric ratio(NSR).

The study on the effect of fracture zone and its orientation on the behavior of shield TBM cable tunnel (단층파쇄대 규모 및 조우 조건에 따른 전력구 쉴드 TBM 터널의 거동 특성 분석)

  • Cho, Won-Sub;Song, Ki-Il;Kim, Kyoung-Yul
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.403-415
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    • 2014
  • Recently, the temperature rise in the summer due to climate change, power usage is increasing rapidly. As a result, power generation facilities have been newly completed and the need for ultra-high-voltage transmission line for power transmission of electricity to the urban area has increased. The mechanized tunnelling method using a shield TBM have an advantage that it can minimize vibrations transmitted to the ground and ground subsidence as compared with the conventional tunnelling method. Despite the popularity of shield TBM for cable tunnel construction, study on the mechanical behavior of cable tunnel driven by shield TBM is insufficient. Thus, in this study, the effect of fractured zone ahead of tunnel face on the mechanical behavior of the shield TBM cable tunnel is investigated. In addition, it is intended to compare the behavior characteristics of the fractured zone with continuous model and applying the interface elements. Tunnelling with shield TBM is simulated using 3D FEM. According to the change of the direction and magnitude of the fractured zone, Sectional forces such as axial force, shear force and bending moment are monitored and vertical displacement at the ground surface is measured. Based on the stability analysis with the results obtained from the numerical analysis, it is possible to predict fractured zone ahead of the shield TBM and ensure the stability of the tunnel structure.

Time-Dependent Optimal Routing in Indoor Space (실내공간에서의 시간 가변적 최적경로 탐색)

  • Park, In-Hye;Lee, Ji-Yeong
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.361-370
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    • 2009
  • As the increasing interests of spatial information for different application area such as disaster management, there are many researches and development of indoor spatial data models and real-time evacuation management systems. The application requires to determine and optical paths in emergency situation, to support evacuees and rescuers. The optimal path in this study is defined to guide rescuers, So, the path is from entrance to the disaster site (room), not from rooms to entrances in the building. In this study, we propose a time-dependent optimal routing algorithm to develop real-time evacuation systems. The network data that represents navigable spaces in building is used for routing the optimal path. Associated information about environment (for example, number of evacuees or rescuers, capacity of hallways and rooms, type of rooms and so on) is assigned to nodes and edges in the network. The time-dependent optimal path is defined after concerning environmental information on the positions of evacuees (for avoiding places jammed with evacuees) and rescuer at each time slot. To detect the positions of human beings in a building per time period, we use the results of evacuation simulation system to identify the movement patterns of human beings in the emergency situation. We use the simulation data of five or ten seconds time interval, to determine the optimal route for rescuers.

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Development of 3D printer heating block using clad plate material (클래드 판재를 사용한 3D 프린터 히팅 블록 개발)

  • Won, Dae-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.199-205
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    • 2017
  • In this study, the design analysis and the explosion welding were made into a clad sheet by the convergence method in order to solve the problem of heat transfer to the guide due to the heating of the 3D printer heating block. The shear strength of the clad plate material was tested and the results were analyzed by thermal analysis, thermal conductivity and thermal imaging. The following conclusions were obtained. 3D modeling of the heating block made of copper and titanium clad plate material The thermal analysis showed that the surface temperature of the filament guide area was lower than the heating block surface temperature. The average shear strength of copper and titanium clad plate material was measured and the average value of 195.6MPa was obtained. The thermal conductivity of the heating block made of copper and titanium clad plate material was measured three times and the average value was $62.52W/m{\cdot}K$. The surface temperature of the heating block made of copper and titanium clad plate material was measured by a thermal imaging camera at a maximum of $107.3^{\circ}C$ and $183.2^{\circ}C$ at the filament guide. The temperature distribution was $89^{\circ}C$ lower than that of the existing filament.

Learning for Environment and Behavior Pattern Using Recurrent Modular Neural Network Based on Estimated Emotion (감정평가에 기반한 환경과 행동패턴 학습을 위한 궤환 모듈라 네트워크)

  • Kim, Seong-Joo;Choi, Woo-Kyung;Kim, Yong-Min;Jeon, Hong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.9-14
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    • 2004
  • Rational sense is affected by emotion. If we add the factor of estimated emotion by environment information into robots, we may get more intelligent and human-friendly robots. However, various sensory information and pattern classification are prescribed for robots to learn emotion so that the networks are suitable for the necessity of robots. Neural network has superior ability to extract character of system but neural network has defect of temporal cross talk and local minimum convergence. To solve the defects, many kinds of modular neural networks have been proposed because they divide a complex problem into simple several subproblems. The modular neural network, introduced by Jacobs and Jordan, shows an excellent ability of recomposition and recombination of complex work. On the other hand, the recurrent network acquires state representations and representations of state make the recurrent neural network suitable for diverse applications such as nonlinear prediction and modeling. In this paper, we applied recurrent network for the expert network in the modular neural network structure to learn data pattern based on emotional assessment. To show the performance of the proposed network, simulation of learning the environment and behavior pattern is proceeded with the real time implementation. The given problem is very complex and has too many cases to learn. The result will show the performance and good ability of the proposed network and will be compared with the result of other method, general modular neural network.

A Multimedia Contents Recommendation System using Preference Transition Probability (선호도 전이 확률을 이용한 멀티미디어 컨텐츠 추천 시스템)

  • Park, Sung-Joon;Kang, Sang-Gil;Kim, Young-Kuk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.164-171
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    • 2006
  • Recently Digital multimedia broadcasting (DMB) has been available as a commercial service. The users sometimes have difficulty in finding their preferred multimedia contents and need to spend a lot of searching time finding them. They are even very likely to miss their preferred contents while searching for them. In order to solve the problem, we need a method for recommendation users preferred only minimum information. We propose an algorithm and a system for recommending users' preferred contents using preference transition probability from user's usage history. The system includes four agents: a client manager agent, a monitoring agent, a learning agent, and a recommendation agent. The client manager agent interacts and coordinates with the other modules, the monitoring agent gathers usage data for analyzing the user's preference of the contents, the learning agent cleans the gathered usage data and modeling with state transition matrix over time, and the recommendation agent recommends the user's preferred contents by analyzing the cleaned usage data. In the recommendation agent, we developed the recommendation algorithm using a user's preference transition probability for the contents. The prototype of the proposed system is designed and implemented on the WIPI(Wireless Internet Platform for Interoperability). The experimental results show that the recommendation algorithm using a user's preference transition probability can provide better performances than a conventional method.

A Study of Electromagnetic Coupling Analysis between Dipole Antenna and Transmission Line Using PEEC Method (PEEC 방법을 이용한 다이폴 안테나와 전송선로 사이의 전자기 결합 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Jeongjoon;Kim, Kwangho;Park, Myeongkoo;Lee, Hosang;Nah, Wansoo
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.28 no.11
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    • pp.902-915
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    • 2017
  • In recent years, mobile devices have become increasingly multi-functional and high performance, resulting in a dramatical increase in processing speed. On the other hand, the size of device is reduced, circuits inside the device are more easily exposed to electromagnetic interference radiated from antenna or adjacent circuits, degrading the system performance. To prevent this, it is necessary to design the device considering the electromagnetic characteristics with EM simulation at the design stage of product. However, the EM simulation takes a long analysis time and require high-level system resources for fast analysis. In this paper, an equivalent circuit modeling method for a round wire is proposed using a PEEC method and the electromagnetic coupling from a dipole antenna to a transmission line is analyzed in frequency domain. And compared with the result of electromagnetic simulator. As a result, PEEC method shows good agreement with those of electromagnetic simulation, in a much more short time.