• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 기법

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Assessment of climate change impact on aquatic ecology health indices in Han river basin using SWAT and random forest (SWAT 및 random forest를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 한강유역의 수생태계 건강성 지수 영향 평가)

  • Woo, So Young;Jung, Chung Gil;Kim, Jin Uk;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.863-874
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on stream aquatic ecology health of Han River watershed ($34,148km^2$) using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and random forest. The 8 years (2008~2015) spring (April to June) Aquatic ecology Health Indices (AHI) such as Trophic Diatom Index (TDI), Benthic Macroinvertebrate Index (BMI) and Fish Assessment Index (FAI) scored (0~100) and graded (A~E) by NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research) were used. The 8 years NIER indices with the water quality (T-N, $NH_4$, $NO_3$, T-P, $PO_4$) showed that the deviation of AHI score is large when the concentration of water quality is low, and AHI score had negative correlation when the concentration is high. By using random forest, one of the Machine Learning techniques for classification analysis, the classification results for the 3 indices grade showed that all of precision, recall, and f1-score were above 0.81. The future SWAT hydrology and water quality results under HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) showed that the future nitrogen-related water quality in watershed average increased up to 43.2% by the baseflow increase effect and the phosphorus-related water quality decreased up to 18.9% by the surface runoff decrease effect. The future FAI and BMI showed a little better Index grade while the future TDI showed a little worse index grade. We can infer that the future TDI is more sensitive to nitrogen-related water quality and the future FAI and BMI are responded to phosphorus-related water quality.

Origin-Destination Estimation Based on Cellular Phone's Base Station (휴대폰 기지국 정보를 이용한 O/D 추정기법 연구)

  • Kim, Si-Gon;Yu, Byeong-Seok;Gang, Seung-Pil
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2005
  • An Origin-Destination (O/D) is considered as one of the important information in route choices and trip assignments. A household interview survey is deemed to be the traditional and the most widely used method in making sample O/D and its conversion to the total O/D. Some researchers have studied to estimate dynamic O/D from the relationship between link volumes and trip assignment model. Nowadays, owing to the recent rapid spread of cellular phones. Location information of the cellular phone through the Base Station(BS) is considered as an alternative to O/D estimation. In this study, the methodology of generating BS-based O/D and the methodology of converting this O/D into an administrative district-based O/D are proposed. The information of GPS positions and cellular BS positions have acquired by establishing GPS equipment and cellular phone on taxies in Cheongju. Three weeks data are collected and used in estimating O/D by matching them on a digital map. Scatter diagram and sample correlation coefficients are used to investigate the similarity of the GPS-based O/D pattern among weeks, among days, and among times in day. The results show that there are few significant differences among weeks. But there is a difference in O/C pattern between weekday and weekend. Furthermore, there is a difference between morning peak and afternoon peak. Two methodologies are proposed to convert BS-based O/D into an administrative district-based O/D. The first one is to use the distribution pattern of GPS coordinates, the other is to use the coverage area of the BSs. To validate such converted O/D, GPS O/D is used as a true value. The statical analyses through scatter diagram, MAE and RMSE shows that there is few significant defference of pattern between the estimated BS-based O/D and GPS O/D. In the case of using only cellular information, the methodology using coverage area of the BSs is recommended for estimating O/D.

Assessing Effects of Calcium Chloride (CaCl2) Deicing Salt on Salt Tolerance of Miscanthus sinensis and Leachate Characterizations (염화칼슘 제설제 처리농도에 따른 참억새의 내염성 및 침출수 평가)

  • Ju, Jin-Hee;Yang, Ji;Park, Sun-Young;Yoon, Yong-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this research is to evaluate the salt tolerance of the Miscanthus sinensis and to characterize the content of pigments in the leachate in relation to calcium chloride ($CaCl_2$) deicing salt. Miscanthus sinensis were cultured at five different concentrations of calcium chloride deicing salt, 0, 1, 2, 5, and $10g{\cdot}L^{-1}$ (referred to Cont. C1, C2, C5, and C10) for four months. The salt tolerance and leachate while growing Miscanthus sinensis on soil which was artificially contaminated by calcium chloride deicing salt. Soil chemical properties (pH, E.C., $Ca^{2+}$, $Na^+$, $K^+$, and $Mg^{2+}$) and plant growth parameters (plant height, leaf length, leaf width, number of leaves, shoot fresh weight, root fresh weight, shoot dry weight, an root dry weight) were evaluated. Soil pH decreased, while electrical conductivity significantly decreased ($p{\leq}0.05$) with a higher concentration of deicing salt $0g{\cdot}L^{-1}$ (Cont.). The increase in the concentration of chloride-based exchangeable cations, along with the increase in the deicing salt treatments, were observed in $Ca^{2+}$ > $Na^+$ > $K^+$ > $Mg^{2+}$. Notably the $Ca^{2+}$ exchangeable cations were 83~90% higher than the others. The growth of Miscanthus sinensis significantly increased ($p{\leq}0.05$) with the concentration of deicing salt higher than $1g{\cdot}L^{-1}$ (C1) when compared to 0 g/L (Cont.), except for the $10g{\cdot}L^{-1}$ (C10) treatment. The results determined that the contamination of soil by deicing salt could negatively impact the soil and Miscanthus sinensis was a tolerant species for the deicing salts. Further research will be focused on soil improvement additives and the stable stimulated plant growth of Miscanthus sinensis and a formulation on that basis for the soil-plant continuum.

Development of Music Recommendation System based on Customer Sentiment Analysis (소비자 감성 분석 기반의 음악 추천 알고리즘 개발)

  • Lee, Seung Jun;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.197-217
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    • 2018
  • Music is one of the most creative act that can express human sentiment with sound. Also, since music invoke people's sentiment to get empathized with it easily, it can either encourage or discourage people's sentiment with music what they are listening. Thus, sentiment is the primary factor when it comes to searching or recommending music to people. Regard to the music recommendation system, there are still lack of recommendation systems that are based on customer sentiment. An algorithm's that were used in previous music recommendation systems are mostly user based, for example, user's play history and playlists etc. Based on play history or playlists between multiple users, distance between music were calculated refer to basic information such as genre, singer, beat etc. It can filter out similar music to the users as a recommendation system. However those methodology have limitations like filter bubble. For example, if user listen to rock music only, it would be hard to get hip-hop or R&B music which have similar sentiment as a recommendation. In this study, we have focused on sentiment of music itself, and finally developed methodology of defining new index for music recommendation system. Concretely, we are proposing "SWEMS" index and using this index, we also extracted "Sentiment Pattern" for each music which was used for this research. Using this "SWEMS" index and "Sentiment Pattern", we expect that it can be used for a variety of purposes not only the music recommendation system but also as an algorithm which used for buildup predicting model etc. In this study, we had to develop the music recommendation system based on emotional adjectives which people generally feel when they listening to music. For that reason, it was necessary to collect a large amount of emotional adjectives as we can. Emotional adjectives were collected via previous study which is related to them. Also more emotional adjectives has collected via social metrics and qualitative interview. Finally, we could collect 134 individual adjectives. Through several steps, the collected adjectives were selected as the final 60 adjectives. Based on the final adjectives, music survey has taken as each item to evaluated the sentiment of a song. Surveys were taken by expert panels who like to listen to music. During the survey, all survey questions were based on emotional adjectives, no other information were collected. The music which evaluated from the previous step is divided into popular and unpopular songs, and the most relevant variables were derived from the popularity of music. The derived variables were reclassified through factor analysis and assigned a weight to the adjectives which belongs to the factor. We define the extracted factors as "SWEMS" index, which describes sentiment score of music in numeric value. In this study, we attempted to apply Case Based Reasoning method to implement an algorithm. Compare to other methodology, we used Case Based Reasoning because it shows similar problem solving method as what human do. Using "SWEMS" index of each music, an algorithm will be implemented based on the Euclidean distance to recommend a song similar to the emotion value which given by the factor for each music. Also, using "SWEMS" index, we can also draw "Sentiment Pattern" for each song. In this study, we found that the song which gives a similar emotion shows similar "Sentiment Pattern" each other. Through "Sentiment Pattern", we could also suggest a new group of music, which is different from the previous format of genre. This research would help people to quantify qualitative data. Also the algorithms can be used to quantify the content itself, which would help users to search the similar content more quickly.

Effects of Early Life Stress on the Development of Depression and Epigenetic Mechanisms of p11 Gene (생애 초기 유해 경험이 우울증의 발병과 p11 유전자의 후성유전기전에 미치는 영향)

  • Seo, Mi Kyoung;Choi, Ah Jeong;Lee, Jung Goo;Urm, Sang-Hwa;Park, Sung Woo;Seog, Dae-Hyun
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.29 no.9
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    • pp.1002-1009
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    • 2019
  • Early life stress (ELS) increases the risk of depression. ELS may be involved in the susceptibility to subsequent stress exposure during adulthood. We investigated whether epigenetic mechanisms of p11 promoter affect the vulnerability to chronic unpredictable stress (CUS) induced by the maternal separation (MS). Mice pups were separated from their dams (3 hr/day from P1-P21). When the pups reached adulthood, we applied CUS (daily for 3 weeks). The levels of hippocampal p11 expression were analyzed by quantitative real-time PCR. The levels of acetylated and methylated histone H3 at p11 promoter were measured by chromatin immunoprecipitation. Depression-like behavior was measured by the forced swimming test (FST). The MS and CUS group exhibited significant decreases in p11 mRNA level and the MS plus CUS group had a greater reduction in this level than the CUS group. The MS plus CUS group also resulted in greater reduction in H3 acetylation than the CUS group. This reduction was associated with an upregulation of histone deacetylase 5. Additionally, the MS plus CUS group showed a greater decrease in H3K4met3 level and a greater increase in H3K27 met3 level than the CUS group. Consistent with the reduction of p11 expression, the MS plus CUS group displayed longer immobility times in the FST compared to the control group. Mice exposed to MS followed by CUS had much greater epigenetic alterations in the hippocampus compared to adult mice that only experienced CUS. ELS can exacerbate the effect of stress exposure during adulthood through histone modification of p11 gene.

Analysis of Environmental Factors and Change of Vascular Plant Species along an Elevational Gradients in Baekdansa, Mt. Taebaeksan National Park (태백산국립공원 백단사코스의 고도별 관속식물상 변화와 환경요인 분석)

  • An, Ji-Hong;Park, Hwan-Joon;Lee, Sae-rom;Seo, In-Soon;Nam, Gi-Heum;Kim, Jung-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.378-401
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    • 2019
  • This study generated a list of plants in eight sections from the Baekdansa ticket office (874m) to Cheonjedan (1,560m) divided in the interval of 100m above sea level to examine the species diversity patterns and distribution changes of the vascular plants at different altitudes in Taebaeksan National Park. Four site surveys found a total of 385 taxa: 89 families, 240 genera, 345 species, 5 subspecies, 34 varieties, and 1 form. A result of analyzing the change of species diversity along elevational gradients showed that it decreased with increasing elevation and then increased from a certain section. A result of analyzing habitat affinity types showed that the proportion of forest species increased with increasing elevation. On the other hand, the ruderal species appeared at a high rate in the artificial interference section. A result of comparing the proportion of woody and herb plants showed that the woody plants gradually increased with elevation and rapidly decreased in the artificial interference section. On the other hand, the herb plants showed the opposite trend. A result of analyzing the change of distribution of species according to altitude with the DCA technique showed that the vascular plants were divided into three groups according to the elevation in order on the I axis with the boundaries at 900m and 1,300m above sea level. The arrangement of each stand from right to left along the altitude on the I axis with a significant correlation with warmth index (WI) confirmed that the temperature change along the altitude could affect the distribution of vascular plants, composition, and diversity. Therefore, the continuous monitoring is necessary to confirm ecological and environmental characteristics of vegetation, distribution ranges, changes of habitat. We expect that the results of this study will be used as the basic data for establishing the measurement measures related to the preservation of biodiversity and climate change.

Optimizing In Vitro Propagation of Sophora koreensis Nakai using Statistical Analysis (다양한 통계분석 기법을 이용한 개느삼(Sophora koreensis Nakai)의 기내 증식 최적 조건 구명)

  • Jeong, Ukhan;Lee, Hwa;Park, Sanghee;Cheong, Eun Ju
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.110 no.1
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2021
  • Sophora koreensis Nakai is an indigenous plant in Koreawith a restricted natural range, part of which is in Gangwon province. The species is known to contain phytochemicals that have beneficial effects on human health, and it is economically important in bioindustry. Because of the limited number of plants in a small range of habitats, the mass-propagation method should be developed for use and conservation. In vitro tissue culture is a reliable method in terms of mass propagation from selected clones of the species. We investigated the optimal conditions of the medium in this process, especially focusing on the concentrations of plant growth regulators(PGRs) in the culture of stem-containing axillary buds. Three statistical methods, i.e., ANOVA, response surface method(RSM), and fuzzy clustering were used to analyze the plant growth, number of shoots induced, and shoot length with various combinations of PGRs. Results from the RSM differed from those of the other two methods; thus, the method was not suitable. ANOVA and fuzzy clustering showed similar results. However, more accurate results were obtained using fuzzy clustering because it provided a probability for each treatment. On the basis of the fuzzy clustering analysis, stem tissue produced the greatest number of shoots(11.03 per explant; 63.33%) on a medium supplemented with 5-��M 6-benzylaminopurine and 2.5-��M thidiazuron(TDZ). Proliferation of shoots(2.18 ± 0.21 cm, 63.33%) was attained on a medium supplemented with 2.5-��M BA, 2.5-��M TDZ, and 2.5-��M gibberellic acid.

Observation of Ice Gradient in Cheonji, Baekdu Mountain Using Modified U-Net from Landsat -5/-7/-8 Images (Landsat 위성 영상으로부터 Modified U-Net을 이용한 백두산 천지 얼음변화도 관측)

  • Lee, Eu-Ru;Lee, Ha-Seong;Park, Sun-Cheon;Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_2
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    • pp.1691-1707
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    • 2022
  • Cheonji Lake, the caldera of Baekdu Mountain, located on the border of the Korean Peninsula and China, alternates between melting and freezing seasonally. There is a magma chamber beneath Cheonji, and variations in the magma chamber cause volcanic antecedents such as changes in the temperature and water pressure of hot spring water. Consequently, there is an abnormal region in Cheonji where ice melts quicker than in other areas, freezes late even during the freezing period, and has a high-temperature water surface. The abnormal area is a discharge region for hot spring water, and its ice gradient may be used to monitor volcanic activity. However, due to geographical, political and spatial issues, periodic observation of abnormal regions of Cheonji is limited. In this study, the degree of ice change in the optimal region was quantified using a Landsat -5/-7/-8 optical satellite image and a Modified U-Net regression model. From January 22, 1985 to December 8, 2020, the Visible and Near Infrared (VNIR) band of 83 Landsat images including anomalous regions was utilized. Using the relative spectral reflectance of water and ice in the VNIR band, unique data were generated for quantitative ice variability monitoring. To preserve as much information as possible from the visible and near-infrared bands, ice gradient was noticed by applying it to U-Net with two encoders, achieving good prediction accuracy with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 140 and a correlation value of 0.9968. Since the ice change value can be seen with high precision from Landsat images using Modified U-Net in the future may be utilized as one of the methods to monitor Baekdu Mountain's volcanic activity, and a more specific volcano monitoring system can be built.

Modeling of Vegetation Phenology Using MODIS and ASOS Data (MODIS와 ASOS 자료를 이용한 식물계절 모델링)

  • Kim, Geunah;Youn, Youjeong;Kang, Jonggu;Choi, Soyeon;Park, Ganghyun;Chun, Junghwa;Jang, Keunchang;Won, Myoungsoo;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_1
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    • pp.627-646
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the seriousness of climate change-related problems caused by global warming is growing, and the average temperature is also rising. As a result, it is affecting the environment in which various temperature-sensitive creatures and creatures live, and changes in the ecosystem are also being detected. Seasons are one of the important factors influencing the types, distribution, and growth characteristics of creatures living in the area. Among the most popular and easily recognized plant seasonal phenomena among the indicators of the climate change impact evaluation, the blooming day of flower and the peak day of autumn leaves were modeled. The types of plants used in the modeling were forsythia and cherry trees, which can be seen as representative plants of spring, and maple and ginkgo, which can be seen as representative plants of autumn. Weather data used to perform modeling were temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation observed through the ASOS Observatory of the Korea Meteorological Administration. As satellite data, MODIS NDVI was used for modeling, and it has a correlation coefficient of about -0.2 for the flowering date and 0.3 for the autumn leaves peak date. As the model used, the model was established using multiple regression models, which are linear models, and Random Forest, which are nonlinear models. In addition, the predicted values estimated by each model were expressed as isopleth maps using spatial interpolation techniques to express the trend of plant seasonal changes from 2003 to 2020. It is believed that using NDVI with high spatio-temporal resolution in the future will increase the accuracy of plant phenology modeling.

Periodic Growth Monitoring and Final Age at Maturity in a Robinia pseudoacacia Stand (아까시나무 임분의 시계열적 생장 모니터링 및 벌기령 도출)

  • Jaeyeop, Kim;Sora, Kim;Jeongeun, Song;Sangmin, Sung;Jongsoo, Yim;Yeongmo, Son
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.4
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    • pp.613-621
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    • 2022
  • The study aim was to investigate changes in the diameter, number of standing trees, stand volume per ha and site index by the forest survey order, climate zone (northern temperate, central temperate, southern temperate, and warm temperate regions), and altitude in 100 m intervals) by collecting samples of Robinia pseudoacacia from the fifth, sixth, and seventh national forest survey datasets. The rotation cutting age, which is a standard used for wood, was calculated. The changes were statistically analyzed by performing ANOVA and the Duncan multiple test. Diameter growth naturally increased according to the forest survey order and was lowest in the southern temperate region by climate zone and lowest at the 301-400 m altitude. The number of standing trees per ha did not change according to the forest survey order and altitude, and the density was highest in the central temperate region and lowest in the southern temperate region. The stand volume per ha increased according to the forest survey order, and the climate zone was divided into two groups: ① northern temperate region and central temperate region, ② southern temperate region and warm temperate region. The stand volume growth was highest at the 201-300 m point. Thesite index showed results similar to the change pattern of the stand volume per ha. The growth curve, which can be seen by the change in stand volume per ha, was estimated by applying theWeibull formula, and the stand volume per ha was estimated to reach approximately 200 m3/ha at 50-60 years. The rotation of the highest production in volume, which is the standard for using trees as wood rather than honey sources, was calculated to be 34 years.