• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 기법

Search Result 6,897, Processing Time 0.031 seconds

Development of Operation Control and Warning System of Movable Weir for River Safety Management (안전한 하천관리를 위한 가동보 방류제어 및 경보 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Phil Shik;Kwon, Hyung Joong;Lee, Jae Hyouk;Cho, Bum Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2015.05a
    • /
    • pp.558-558
    • /
    • 2015
  • 하천 시설물은 홍수시 혹은 비상시 운영할 수 있는 경보시스템이나 관리지침 등의 마련이 필수적임에도 불구하고, 현재까지 가동보 시설물에 대한 비상시 운영 메뉴얼 및 경보시스템이 구축되지 못한 실정이다. 4대강 살리기 사업이나 하천정비사업과 같은 대표적인 하천관련 사업에서 단순한 하천 이 치수 목적뿐만 아니라 소수력 발전, 친수공간조성 등의 다목적 활용을 위하여 가동보 설치 사업이 다수 수행되었으며, 현재 국내 하천에 약 1,200여개의 가동보가 설치 운영되고 있다. 이와 같이 다목적 활용을 위하여 가동보의 수요가 급증하는데 반해, 각 설치 현장 상황에 적합한 가동보 운영지침이나 비상경보시스템이 구축되지 못한 실정이며, 적절한 지침 없이 관행적인 가동보 방류로 인한 물놀이 안전사고나 인명피해가 속출하고 있는 실정이다. 2012년 11월에는 하천 제수변 공사를 위해 전주천에 설치한 가동보를 임시적으로 방류하였는데, 하류측의 안전을 확인하지 않고 관행적으로 가동보를 방류하였고, 경보시스템의 부재로 인하여 가동보 하류측 징검다리를 건너는 유치원생들이 급류에 휩쓸리는 사고가 발생하였고, 최근 2014년 5월에는 수원시에 위치한 원천저수지 여수로 둑에 설치된 가로 34m 높이 1.6m 크기의 가동보가 공기압축기의 오작동으로 인하여 보 높이가 낮아지면서 약 30분 원천저수지 하류의 원천리천에 갑자기 무리 불어나 산책로가 침수되고 인근에 산책하던 주민들이 휩쓸려 떠내려가는 사고가 발생하였다. 해외에서도 가동보 운영 미숙으로 인하여 인명사고가 발생하는데, 2008년 11월 호주에서는 하류측 상황 점검이나 경고 방송 없이 가동보를 도복시켜 4살 여아가 급류에 사망하는 사고가 발생하였다. 국외의 경우에는, 상류측 홍수 수위나 하류측 역류 수위를 조절하기 위하여 가동보의 높이를 제어하는 시스템을 구비하고 있지만 이러한 시스템 역시 단순한 수위조절 기능으로서 가동보의 방류량을 제어하지 못하는 실정이다. 가동보를 운영하기 위한 조작시스템은 국내의 경우, 조작실의 조작판넬을 이용하여 가동보의 기립/도복 조작이나 원격 조작 기능과 같은 단순기능만을 구비하고 있어 가동보 방류시 하류측의 범람 피해를 야기하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 가동보 방류에 의한 하류측 범람 피해를 최소화하기 위하여 (1) 가동보 도복에 의한 방류량 산정 알고리즘을 개발하고, (2) 방류량에 따른 하류측 수위상승 범위 예측 기법을 개발하고, (3) 가동보 도복 속도를 제어하는 방류량 제어시스템을 개발하고, (4) 가동보 방류에 의한 비상경보시스템을 개발하였다.

  • PDF

A Feasibility Study on Rail-Ferry Systems: Focused on Sino-Korea Transport Routes (한.중간 열차페리운행에 관한 연구 - 수도권항만을 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Chang-Ho;Ahn, Seung-Bum;Kim, Hyeong-Il
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.23 no.2
    • /
    • pp.87-107
    • /
    • 2007
  • A rapid growth of interregional trade between China and Korea requires new development and expansion of ports. Currently, there is no rail-ferry system between China and Korea, however, a rapid growth of car-ferry industry shows possibilities. Several candidate cities and regions in East part of China and West part of Korea are selected. We identified times in clearance and station-to-station services as major benefits. We compared three transport modes including candidate cities and regions: container ships, car-ferry and rail-ferry. We used AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) as an evaluation method to select most competitive rail-ferry routes between two countries. We also used 7-point Likert scales to find out bottlenecks and factors to introduce rail-ferry services as other questionnaires. As a result, Rail Ferry System(RFS) is a little expensive due to wagon loading efficiency in cargo hold of the ship compared to Car Ferry System or Liner Shipping System. But RFS is recommendable in case of Block Train transport between Korea and EU area by may of TCR and TSR comparing Car Ferry System, because it can reduce total transport cost and connecting procedure at border lines of passing countries.

  • PDF

Turbulent-Induced Noise around a Circular Cylinder using Permeable FW-H Method (Permeable FW-H 방법을 이용한 원형 실린더 주변의 난류유동소음해석)

  • Choi, Woen-Sug;Hong, Suk-Yoon;Song, Jee-Hun;Kwon, Hyun-Wung;Jung, Chul-Min
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.20 no.6
    • /
    • pp.752-759
    • /
    • 2014
  • Varieties of research on turbulent-induced noise is conducted with combinations of acoustic analogy methods and computational fluid dynamic methods to analyze efficiently and accurately. Application of FW-H acoustic analogy without turbulent noise is the most popular method due to its calculation cost. In this paper, turbulent-induced noise is predicted using RANS turbulence model and permeable FW-H method. For simplicity, noise from 2D cylinder is examined using three different methods, direct method of RANS, FW-H method without turbulent noise and permeable FW-H method which can take into account of turbulent-induced noise. Turbulent noise was well predicted using permeable FW-H method with same computational cost of original FW-H method. Also, ability of permeable FW-H method to predict highly accurate turbulent-induced noise by applying adequate permeable surface is presented. The procedure to predict turbulent-induced noise using permeable FW-H is established and its usability is shown.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Effect of Soil Ecological Quality Information in Selecting Eco-Friendly Road Route (토양생태 등급 정보가 친환경도로노선 선정에 미치는 영향에 관한 민감도 분석)

  • Ki, Dong-Won;Kang, Ho-Geun;Lee, Sang-Eun;Heo, Joon;Park, Joon-Hong
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
    • /
    • v.13 no.3
    • /
    • pp.37-44
    • /
    • 2008
  • Soil ecology has important roles in global ecosystems. However, soil ecological quality information is being ignored when assessing ecological impact of construction actions. And methods for classifying and assessing soil ecological quality have been very little established in comparison to those for animal and plant ecosystems. In this study, it was examined whether soil ecological quality information has influence on determining an eco-friendly route for a road construction project. For this, sensitivity analysis was systematically performed by varying the relative significance (weights) of soil ecological quality information among natural environmental and ecological factors. When the weight of soil ecological quality was greater than just 14%, the soil ecological quality information significantly influenced the determination of the eco-friendly routes for a specific road construction project. This demonstrates that soil ecological quality information has to be considered for more reliable environmental impact assessment, and also supports the validity of use of soil ecological quality information and its mapping technique in planning and siting of eco-friendly construction projects.

Correlation of Zoysia Grass (Zoysia. spp) Survival, Reproduction, and Floret Appearance Rates to Aid in Development of New Hybrid Zoysia Grass Cultivars (잔디 교잡 품종 개발을 위한 잔디 생존률, 재생산률 및 꽃대 출현률과의 상관관계)

  • Han, Gyung Deok;Jung, Ji Hyeon;Chung, Yong Suk
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
    • /
    • v.66 no.3
    • /
    • pp.265-269
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study was conducted to provide primary data through analysis of zoysia grass genetic resources to develop grass cultivars with beneficial novel properties. Zoysia grass (Zoysia. spp) is native to Korea, and is mainly propagated through stolons. However, since seed coat treatment technology was developed, the breeding of sexually reproductive grass variants has become possible, necessitating characterization of the floret appearance rate in the secured zoysia grass genetic resource before developing sexually reproductive cultivars. In this experiment, 549 grass lines were examined, revealing that florets appear in only 43 lines (7.81%). Survival rates after transplantation, and stolon generation rates displayed a significant positive correlation (Rho = 0.44). Survival rates after transfer, and rates of stolon production displayed very low correlations with floret appearance (Rho = -0.11 and Rho = -0.06). No significant results were obtained in 43 lines that displayed >20% floret appearance. To breed sexually reproductive grass variants, it is thus necessary to secure more genetic resources, considering the low rate of floret appearance. Finding traits that predict floret appearance at an early stage is also required.

Water Depth and Riverbed Surveying Using Airborne Bathymetric LiDAR System - A Case Study at the Gokgyo River (항공수심라이다를 활용한 하천 수심 및 하상 측량에 관한 연구 - 곡교천 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jae Bin;Kim, Hye Jin;Kim, Jae Hak;Wie, Gwang Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.39 no.4
    • /
    • pp.235-243
    • /
    • 2021
  • River surveying is conducted to acquire basic geographic data for river master plans and various river maintenance, and it is also used to predict changes after river maintenance construction. ABL (Airborne Bathymetric LiDAR) system is a cutting-edge surveying technology that can simultaneously observe the water surface and river bed using a green laser, and has many advantages in river surveying. In order to use the ABL data for river surveying, it is prerequisite step to segment and extract the water surface and river bed points from the original point cloud data. In this study, point cloud segmentation was performed by applying the ground filtering technique, ATIN (Adaptive Triangular Irregular Network) to the ABL data and then, the water surface and riverbed point clouds were extracted sequentially. In the Gokgyocheon river area, Chungcheongnam-do, the experiment was conducted with the dataset obtained using the Leica Chiroptera 4X sensor. As a result of the study, the overall classification accuracy for the water surface and riverbed was 88.8%, and the Kappa coefficient was 0.825, confirming that the ABL data can be effectively used for river surveying.

Rainfall Intensity Estimation Using Geostationary Satellite Data Based on Machine Learning: A Case Study in the Korean Peninsula in Summer (정지 궤도 기상 위성을 이용한 기계 학습 기반 강우 강도 추정: 한반도 여름철을 대상으로)

  • Shin, Yeji;Han, Daehyeon;Im, Jungho
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.37 no.5_3
    • /
    • pp.1405-1423
    • /
    • 2021
  • Precipitation is one of the main factors that affect water and energy cycles, and its estimation plays a very important role in securing water resources and timely responding to water disasters. Satellite-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) has the advantage of covering large areas at high spatiotemporal resolution. In this study, machine learning-based rainfall intensity models were developed using Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) water vapor channel (6.7 ㎛), infrared channel (10.8 ㎛), and weather radar Column Max (CMAX) composite data based on random forest (RF). The target variables were weather radar reflectivity (dBZ) and rainfall intensity (mm/hr) converted by the Z-R relationship. The results showed that the model which learned CMAX reflectivity produced the Critical Success Index (CSI) of 0.34 and the Mean-Absolute-Error (MAE) of 4.82 mm/hr. When compared to the GeoKompsat-2 and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)-Cloud Classification System (CCS) rainfall intensity products, the accuracies improved by 21.73% and 10.81% for CSI, and 31.33% and 23.49% for MAE, respectively. The spatial distribution of the estimated rainfall intensity was much more similar to the radar data than the existing products.

Development of a Simulation Model for Supply Chain Management of Precast Concrete (프리캐스트 콘크리트 공급사슬 관리를 위한 시뮬레이션 모형 개발)

  • Kwon, Hyeonju;Jeon, Sangwon;Lee, Jaeil;Jeong, Keunchae
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.22 no.5
    • /
    • pp.86-98
    • /
    • 2021
  • In this study, we developed a simulation model for supply chain management of Precast Concrete (PC) based construction. To this end, information on the Factory Production/Site Construction system was collected through literature review and field research, and based on this information, a simulation model was defined by describing the supply chain, entities, resources, and processes. Next, using the Arena simulation software, a simulation model for the PC supply chain was developed by setting model frameworks, data modules, flowchart modules, and animation modules. Finally, verification and validation were performed using five review methodologies such as model check, animation check, extreme value test, average value test, and actual case test to the developed model. As a result, it was found that the model adequately represented the flows and characteristics of the PC supply chain without any logical errors and provided accurate performance evaluation values for the target supply chains. It is expected that the proposed simulation model will faithfully play a role as a performance evaluation platform in the future for developing management techniques in order to optimally operate the PC supply chain.

Comparison of the flow estimation methods through GIUH rainfall-runoff model for flood warning system on Banseong stream (반성천 홍수경보 시스템을 위한 GIUH기반 한계홍수량 산정기법 비교연구)

  • Seong, Kiyoung;Ahn, Yujin;Lee, Taesam
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.54 no.5
    • /
    • pp.347-354
    • /
    • 2021
  • In the past few years, various damages have occurred in the vicinity of rivers due to flooding. In order to alleviate such flood damage, structural and non-structural measures are being established, and one of the important non-structural measures is to establish a flood warning system. In general, in order to establish a flood warning system, the water level of the flood alarm reference point is set, the critical flow corresponding thereto is calculated, and the warning precipitation amount corresponding to the critical flow is calculated through the Geomorphological Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (GIUH) rainfall-runoff model. In particular, when calculating the critical flow, various studies have calculated the critical flow through the Manning formula. To compare the adequacy of this, in this study, the critical flow was calculated through the HEC-RAS model and compared with the value obtained from Manning's equation. As a result of the comparison, it was confirmed that the critical flow calculated by the Manning equation adopted excessive alarm precipitation values and lead a very high flow compared to the existing design precipitation. In contrast, the critical flow of HEC-RAS presented an appropriate alarm precipitation value and was found to be appropriate to the annual average alarm standard. From the results of this study, it seems more appropriate to calculate the critical flow through HEC-RAS, rather than through the existing Manning equation, in a situation where various river projects have been conducted resulting that most of the rivers have been surveyed.

Suggestion and Evaluation for Prediction Method of Landslide Occurrence using SWAT Model and Climate Change Data: Case Study of Jungsan-ri Region in Mt. Jiri National Park (SWAT model과 기후변화 자료를 이용한 산사태 예측 기법 제안과 평가: 지리산 국립공원 중산리 일대 사례연구)

  • Kim, Jisu;Kim, Minseok;Cho, Youngchan;Oh, Hyunjoo;Lee, Choonoh
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
    • /
    • v.26 no.6
    • /
    • pp.106-117
    • /
    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is prediction of landslide occurrence reflecting the subsurface flow characteristics within the soil layer in the future due to climate change in a large scale watershed. To do this, we considered the infinite slope stability theory to evaluate the landslide occurrence with predicted soil moisture content by SWAT model based on monitored data (rainfall-soil moisture-discharge). The correlation between the SWAT model and the monitoring data was performed using the coefficient of determination (R2) and the model's efficiency index (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency; NSE) and, an accuracy analysis of landslide prediction was performed using auROC (area under Receiver Operating Curve) analysis. In results comparing with the calculated discharge-soil moisture content by SWAT model vs. actual observation data, R2 was 0.9 and NSE was 0.91 in discharge and, R2 was 0.7 and NSE was 0.79 in soil moisture, respectively. As a result of performing infinite slope stability analysis in the area where landslides occurred in the past based on simulated data (SWAT analysis result of 0.7~0.8), AuROC showed 0.98, indicating that the suggested prediction method was resonable. Based on this, as a result of predicting the characteristics of landslide occurrence by 2050 using climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) data, it was calculated that four landslides could occur with a soil moisture content of more than 75% and rainfall over 250 mm/day during simulation. Although this study needs to be evaluated in various regions because of a case study, it was possible to determine the possibility of prediction through modeling of subsurface flow mechanism, one of the most important attributes in landslide occurrence.