• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측추정자

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A research for forecasting of rate of university quota according to the reducing of young generation (학령인구 감소에 따른 지역별 대입지원자 감소에 대한 예측연구)

  • Kim, Ki Whan;Lee, Chang Ho;Choi, Boseung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1175-1188
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    • 2015
  • The Ministry of Education of Korea announced the university structural reform plans which reduces 160,000 of the university entrance quota during 10 years from January 2014. Because the reduction plans of entrance quota influence regional economy as well as students and universities, naive evidence of the Ministry of Education of Korea is disappointed. In this research, we forecast the total number of the university entrance exam candidate by 2032 including not only third grade high school students but also repeaters according to the 16 metropolises and provinces in Korea. We also forecast the regional university recruiting rate using the forecasts of the total number of the university entrance exam candidates. However, we can not make more realistic results because we can not apply the inter-regional movement of students to the forecast. In order to handle this limitation, we first estimated the rank of the whole 7,277 departments of all universities in Korea and assigned the quotas according to the estimated rank for each departments and then we calculated the local university recruiting rate. The estimated the university recruiting rates of 16 metropolises and provinces can provide more noticeable results of characteristics and problems than that of nationwide.

Developing a Latent Class Model Considering Heterogeneity in Mode Choice Behavior : A Case of Commuters in Seoul (수단선택의 이질성을 고려한 잠재계층모형(Latent Class Model) 구축: 서울시 통근자를 사례로)

  • Kim, Sung Hoo;Choo, Sangho
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.44-57
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    • 2019
  • It is crucial to understand how people make decisions on mode choice and to accurately predict their behaviors in transportation planning. One of avenues for advancing modeling is, in particular, taking into account for taste heterogeneity in modeling that can incorporate different decision-making processes across group. In this study, we hypothesize that how people make decisions on mode choice would differ by destination in that land use characteristics are heterogeneous by zone even if zones are all in the same area. To this end, we apply Latent Class Modeling (LCM) to commute trips in Seoul by using 2010 household travel diary survey, investigate types of latent classes with the aid of characteristics of destination, and analyze how those classes differently response to factors. The LCM identifies two classes: in the first one, modal split of auto and public transit (bus and metro) is almost half-and-half and the trip destinations are characterized by relatively more residence facilities and less business/commercial facilities; in the second one, public transit has a notably high share and trip destinations are characterized by relatively more business/commercial facilities. In addition, it turns out that demographic and socio-economic variables affect mode choice differently by class.

Monitoring Methods for Metcalfa pruinosa (Say) (Hemiptera: Flatidae) Eggs on Acacia Branches (아카시나무에서 미국선녀벌레 알의 조사방법)

  • Choi, Yong-Seok;Whang, In-Su;Lee, Gyung-Ju;Na, Mi-Suk;Park, Deog-Kee;Seo, Hwa-Young
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.297-302
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    • 2018
  • We surveyed branches of acacia trees distributed nationally in Korea to establish a common survey method that can be used by investigators to monitor for over-wintering Metcalfa pruinosa eggs. A total of 189 samples was examined, and the number of eggs on the surfaces of the branches, bases of thorns and bases of twigs was recored. When including samples in which no eggs were found at all investigation sites, none of the data followed the normal distribution. However, when samples in which no eggs were found at all sites were exclued, the density of eggs investigated at the thorn bases and twig bases followed the normal distribution. When the density of eggs was sorted based on the thickness of the branches on which they were found, these data did not follow the normal distribution. The density of M. pruinosa eggs at the thorn bases and twig bases was significantly higher than that on the branch surfaces, but there was no significant difference among branches of different thicknesses. Therefore, monitoring for M. pruinosa eggs at the thorn bases and twig bases of the nationally distributed acacia tree, irrespective of the thickness of the branches, will be able to increase the precision with which the density of this insect's eggs could be estimated. It is thus expected that this method will contribute to developing methods to better characterize the distribution and predict the occurrence of this.

The Effect of Baltic Dry Index on the Korean Stock Price Volatility (발틱운임지수가 한국 주가 변동성에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Ki-Hong;Kim, Dong-Yoon
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.61-76
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to use the EGARCH model and Granger causality test to analyze how the change in the BDI affects the Korean stock price volatility. The main analysis results are summarized as follows. First, according to the results of the mean equation, the change in the BDI is significant in large-cap stocks, as well as in the manufacturing, service, and chemistry indexes, but not in others. This implies that the Korean stock market does not respond appropriately to the maritime market situation; further, the increase in demand for raw materials has not led to a real economic recovery. Second, in the result of the variance equation, the coefficient on the change in the BDI is negative(-), and the change in the BDI is significant for all size indexes. Particularly, the change in the BDI has a greater impact on the volatility of small-cap stocks than that of large-cap stocks. The results of the analysis of the sector indexes were statistically significant for the service, financial, construction, and electric and electronics industries, but not for the manufacturing and chemical industries. In particular, the changes in the BDI have the greatest impact on the construction industry. Third, according to the Granger causality test results, the change in the BDI leads the financial industry and construction industry. There is, however, no relationship between the BDI and the other indexes. This shows that change in the shipping freight index can be used to predict the volatility in the Korean stock market. This can help investors and policymakers make better decisions.

A Development of Hydrological Model Calibration Technique Considering Seasonality via Regional Sensitivity Analysis (지역적 민감도 분석을 이용하여 계절성을 고려한 수문 모형 보정 기법 개발)

  • Lee, Ye-Rin;Yu, Jae-Ung;Kim, Kyungtak;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.337-352
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    • 2023
  • In general, Rainfall-Runoff model parameter set is optimized using the entire data to calculate unique parameter set. However, Korea has a large precipitation deviation according to the season, and it is expected to even worsen due to climate change. Therefore, the need for hydrological data considering seasonal characteristics. In this study, we conducted regional sensitivity analysis(RSA) using the conceptual Rainfall-Runoff model, GR4J aimed at the Soyanggang dam basin, and clustered combining the RSA results with hydrometeorological data using Self-Organizing map(SOM). In order to consider the climate characteristics in parameter estimation, the data was divided based on clustering, and a calibration approach of the Rainfall-Runoff model was developed by comparing the objective functions of the Global Optimization method. The performance of calibration was evaluated by statistical techniques. As a result, it was confirmed that the model performance during the Cold period(November~April) with a relatively low flow rate was improved. This is expected to improve the performance and predictability of the hydrological model for areas that have a large precipitation deviation such as Monsoon climate.

The Effects of Independent Business Owners' Emotional Labor on Emotional Exhaustion and Depression: Moderating Role of Regulatory Focus (독립사업자의 감정노동전략이 감정소진과 우울감에 미치는 영향: 조절초점의 조절효과)

  • Lee, Hoon;Jeon, Joo-Eon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.251-264
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    • 2022
  • Previous researches related to emotional labor have been cross-sectional studies focusing on static differences in emotional exhaustion. Previous studies on these relationships have not highlighted the dynamic properties of these relationships. This purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of emotional labor strategy on perceived emotional exhaustion and depression. This study was conducted by paying attention to the fact that service industry workers who have to respond kindly to customers often have to show emotions which is necessary for their business to the outside world rather than showing their true emotions. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, it was confirmed that surface acting had a positive influence on emotional exhaustion, but deep acting had a negative influence to emotional exhaustion. Second, it was found that surface acting had a positive influence on depression, but deep acting had a negative influence on depression. Third, it was confirmed that the effect of deep acting on emotional exhaustion decreased when emotional labor was performed through deep acting on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays, while emotional exhaustion was not significant on Thursdays and Fridays. Fourth, it was confirmed that the difference in the effect of emotional labor strategy on depression was greater in the case of performing emotional labor through surface acting than in the case of performing emotional labor through deep acting.

A Comparative Study of Rain Intensities Retrieved from Radar and Satellite Observations: Two Cases of Heavy Rainfall Events by Changma and Bolaven (TY15) (장마와 볼라벤(태풍 15호)에 동반된 집중호우 레이더관측과 위성관측 자료로부터 도출한 강우강도의 비교연구)

  • Lee, Dong-In;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.33 no.7
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    • pp.569-582
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    • 2012
  • The heavy rainfalls caused large property damages and human casualties. For example, Changma caused 0.25 billion dollars in damages and 57 deaths and 112 missing by accompanying the torrentially convective heavy rainfall in Seoul, 2011. In addition, TY15 (Bolaven) caused a small damage by bringing a relatively small amount of rainfall and strong wind in Gwanju, 2012. The investigation and analyses of these mesoscale processes of rainfall events for different physical properties using KLAPS for weather environments of the above cases were performed. These typical and ideal meoscale systems by better and more favorable cloud systems were chosen to retrieve rain intensity from Radar and Chullian data. The quantitative rain intensities of Radar and Chullian differ greatly from the ground-based gauge values with underestimating over 50 mm/hr at the peak time of hourly maximum rain intensity about over than 85 mm/hr. However, the Radar rain intensity demonstrated approximately lower than 35 mm/hr, and the Chullian rain intensity less than 60 mm/hr for Changma in Seoul, 2011. For typhoon (TY15, Bolaven) in Gwangju, similarly, the quantitative rain intensities of Radar and Chullian differ from the ground-based gauge values. At the peak time, the hourly maximum rain intensity of ground-based gauge was more than 15 mm/hr. However, the Radar rain intensity showed lower than 5 mm/hr, and the Chullian rain intensity lower than 10 mm/hr. Regarding the above two cases of typhoon and Changma, even though Radar and Chullian rain intensities have been underestimated when compared to the ground-based rain intensity, the distributions of time scale features of both Radar and Chullian rain intensities still delineated a similar tendency of rain intensity distribution of the ground-based gauge data.

A personalized TV service under Open network environment (개방형 환경에서의 개인 맞춤형 TV 서비스)

  • Lye, Ji-Hye;Pyo, Sin-Ji;Im, Jeong-Yeon;Kim, Mun-Churl;Lim, Sun-Hwan;Kim, Sang-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Broadcast Engineers Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.279-282
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    • 2006
  • IP망을 이용한 IPTV 방송 서비스가 새로운 수익 모델로 인정받고 현재 국내의 KT, SKT 등이 IPTV 시범서비스를 준비하거나 진행 중에 있다 이 IPTV 서비스는 이전의 단방향 방송과는 달리 사용자와의 인터렉션을 중시하는 양방향 방송을 표방하기 때문에 지금까지의 방송과는 다른 혁신적인 방송서비스가 기대된다. 하지만 IPTV 서비스에 있어서 여러 통신사와 방송사가 참여할 수 있을 것으로 보여지는 것과는 달리 실상은 몇몇 거대 통신기업이 자신들의 망을 이용하는 가입자들을 상대로 한정된 사업을 벌이고 있다. 이는 IPTV 서비스를 위한 인프라가 구축되어 있지 않고 방통융합망의 개념을 만족시키기 위해 서비스 개발자가 알아야 할 프로토콜들이 너무나 많기 때문이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 이러한 상황을 타개할 수 있는 수단을 Open API로 제안한다. 맞춤형 방송을 위한 시나리오를 TV-Anytime의 벤치마킹과 유저 시나리오를 참고하여 재구성하고 이 시나리오로부터 IPTV 방송 서비스를 위한 방통융합망의 기본적이고 강력한 기능들을 Open API 함수로 정의하였다. 여기에서의 방송 서비스는 NDR, EPG, 개인 맞춤형 광고 서비스를 말하며 각 서비스를 위한 서버는 통합망 위에 존재하고 이 서버들이 개방하는 API들은 다른 응용프로그램에 의해 사용되는 것이기 때문에 가장 기본적인 기능을 정의하게 된다. 또한, 제안한 Open API 함수를 이용하여 개인 맞춤형 방송 응용 서비스를 구현함으로써 서비스 검증을 하였다. Open API는 웹서비스를 통해 공개된 기능들로써 게이트웨이를 통해 다른 망에서 사용할 수 있게 된다. Open API 함수의 정의는 함수 이름, 기능, 입 출력 파라메터로 이루어져 있다. 사용자 맞춤 서비스를 위해 전달되는 사용자 상세 정보와 콘텐츠 상세 정보는 TV-Anytime 포럼에서 정의한 메타데이터 스키마를 이용하여 정의하였다.가능하게 한다. 제안된 방법은 프레임 간 모드 결정을 고속화함으로써 스케일러블 비디오 부호화기의 연산량과 복잡도를 최대 57%감소시킨다. 그러나 연산량 감소에 따른 비트율의 증가나 화질의 열화는 최대 1.74% 비트율 증가 및 0.08dB PSNR 감소로 무시할 정도로 작다., 반드시 이에 대한 검증이 필요함을 알 수 있었다. 현지관측에 비해 막대한 비용과 시간을 절약할 수 있는 위성영상해석방법을 이용한 방법은 해양수질파악이 가능할 것으로 판단되며, GIS를 이용하여 다양하고 복잡한 자료를 데이터베이스화함으로써 가시화하고, 이를 기초로 공간분석을 실시함으로써 환경요소별 공간분포에 대한 파악을 통해 수치모형실험을 이용한 각종 환경영향의 평가 및 예측을 위한 기초자료로 이용이 가능할 것으로 사료된다.염총량관리 기본계획 시 구축된 모형 매개변수를 바탕으로 분석을 수행하였다. 일차오차분석을 이용하여 수리매개변수와 수질매개변수의 수질항목별 상대적 기여도를 파악해 본 결과, 수리매개변수는 DO, BOD, 유기질소, 유기인 모든 항목에 일정 정도의 상대적 기여도를 가지고 있는 것을 알 수 있었다. 이로부터 수질 모형의 적용 시 수리 매개변수 또한 수질 매개변수의 추정 시와 같이 보다 세심한 주의를 기울여 추정할 필요가 있을 것으로 판단된다.변화와 기흉 발생과의 인과관계를 확인하고 좀 더 구체화하기 위한 연구가 필요할 것이다.게 이루어질 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.는 초과수익률이 상승하지만, 이후로는 감소하므로, 반전거래전략을 활용하는 경우 주식투자기간은 24개월이하의 중단기가 적합함을 발견하였다. 이상의 행태적 측면과 투자성과측면의 실증결과를 통하여 한국주식시장에 있어서 시장수익률을 평균적으로 초과할 수 있는 거래전략은 존재하므로 이러한 전략을 개발 및 활용할 수 있으며, 특히, 한국주식시장에 적합한 거래전략은 반전거래전략이고, 이 전략의 유용성은 투자자가 설정한 투자기간보다

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Dynamic Changes of Urban Spatial Structure in Seoul: Focusing on a Relative Office Price Gradient (오피스 가격경사계수를 이용한 서울시 도시공간구조 변화 분석)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2021
  • With the increasing demand for office space, there have been questions on how office rent distribution produces a change in the urban spatial structure in Seoul. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a relative price gradient and to present a time-series model that can quantitatively explain the dynamic changes in the urban spatial structure. The analysis was dealt with office rent above 3,306 m2 for the past 10 years from 1Q 2010 to 4Q 2019 within Seoul. A modified repeat sales model was employed. The main findings are briefly summarized as follows. First, according to the estimates of the office price gradient in the three major urban centers of Seoul, the CBD remained at a certain level with little change, while those in the GBD and the YBD continued to increase. This result reveals that the urban form of Seoul has shifted from monocentric to polycentric. This shows that the spatial distribution of companies has gradually accelerated decentralized concentration implying that the business networks have become significant. Second, contrary to small and medium-sized office buildings that have undertaken no change in the gradient, large office buildings have seen an increase in the gradient. The relative price gradients in small and medium-sized buildings were inversely proportional among the CBD, the GBD, and the YBD, implying their heterogeneous submarkets by office rent movements. Presumably, those differences in the submarkets were attributed to investment attraction, industrial competition, and the credit and preference of tenants. The findings are consistent with the hierarchical system identified in the Seoul 2030 Plan as well as the literature about Seoul's urban form. This research claims that the proposed method, based on the modified repeat sales model, is useful in understanding temporal dynamic changes. Moreover, the findings can provide implications for urban growth strategies under rapidly changing market conditions.

Development of Robotic Inspection System over Bridge Superstructure (교량 상판 하부 안전점검 로봇개발)

  • Nam Soon-Sung;Jang Jung-Whan;Yang Kyung-Taek
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.180-185
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    • 2003
  • The increase of traffic over a bridge has been emerged as one of the most severe problems in view of bridge maintenance, since the load effect caused by the vehicle passage over the bridge has brought out a long-term damage to bridge structure, and it is nearly impossible to maintain operational serviceability of bridge to user's satisfactory level without any concern on bridge maintenance at the phase of completion. Moreover, bridge maintenance operation should be performed by regular inspection over the bridge to prevent structural malfunction or unexpected accidents front breaking out by monitoring on cracks or deformations during service. Therefore, technical breakthrough related to this uninterested field of bridge maintenance leading the public to the turning point of recognition is desperately needed. This study has the aim of development on automated inspection system to lower surface of bridge superstructures to replace the conventional system of bridge inspection with the naked eye, where the monitoring staff is directly on board to refractive or other type of maintenance .vehicles, with which it is expected that we can solve the problems essentially where the results of inspection are varied to change with subjective manlier from monitoring staff, increase stabilities in safety during the inspection, and make contribution to construct data base by providing objective and quantitative data and materials through image processing method over data captured by cameras. By this system it is also expected that objective estimation over the right time of maintenance and reinforcement work will lead enormous decrease in maintenance cost.

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