• 제목/요약/키워드: 예측추정자

검색결과 238건 처리시간 0.026초

Daily Streamflow Model for the Korean Watersheds (韓國 河川의 日 流出量 模型)

  • Kim, Tae-Cheol;Park, Seong-Ki;Ahn, Byoung-Gi
    • Water for future
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    • 제29권5호
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    • pp.223-233
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    • 1996
  • Daily streamflow model, DAWAST, considering the meteorologic and geographic characteristics of the Korean watersheds has been developed to simulate the daily streamflow with the input data of daily rainfall and pan evaporation. The model is the conceptual one with three sub-models which are optimization, generalization, and regionalization models. The conceptual model consists of three linear reservoirs representing the surface, unsaturated, and saturated soil zones and water balance analysis was carried out in each soil zones on a daily basis. Optimization model calibrates the parameters by optimization technique and is applicable to the watersheds where the daily streamflow data are available Generalization model predicts the parameters by regression equations considering the geographic, soil type, land use, and hydrogeologic characteristics of watershed and is appicable to ungaged medium or small watersheds. Regionalization model cites the parameters from the analysed ones considering river system, latitude and longitude, and is applicable to ungaged large watersheds.

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A Study on Cost Prediction of Highway Operating Risk through a Case Study of Power Failure (정전사고 사례분석을 통한 고속도로 운영 위험비용 산정에 대한 연구)

  • Kwon, Yong-Hoon;Kim, Kyong-Ju;Lim, Won-Seok;Park, Chan-Jin;Chae, Myung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.78-90
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    • 2009
  • Recently, operation of highway is the complex digital Infrastructure based on complicated IT. The application of IT is increasing more and more in digital Infrastructure. Though IT is very convenient, if unpredicted operating risk of highway occurs, widespread damage can be large. When operating risk of highway occurs, road users are out of smoothly-run service because of the operating interruption. This risk causes unpredicted operating management cost and additional maintenance cost. It will excess over the planned operating cost, which may leads to users's unsafety and operator's insolvency because of income loss. Until now, related studies to find out the risk are not sufficient. The purpose of this study is to suggest risk cost items and to estimate the reasonable risk cost by using simulation method in case of occurring the huge power failure at the operating digitalized highway. This study indicates the several plans to hedge against risk cost and the management of highway project. From now on, it will be used as basic data to confirm the soundness of operating system in Digital Infrastructure.

Logistics Peculiarities for the Firms in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk Area (대구.경북지역 기업의 물류특성 분석)

  • Ha, Yeong-Seok;Seo, Jung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.241-260
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    • 2011
  • This paper qualitatively describes logistics behaviors of 113 companies located in Daegu-Gyeongbuk by considering various characteristics such as business location, trade volume, cargo types and the possession of company's own warehouse. A logit model is developed to investigate how predictor variables affect these companies' inclination of utilizing Third Party Logistics Provider(3PL). The estimation results of 102 effective data points show that among the four predictors the location of company's HQs (HQADD) and trade volume (TRDTEU) significantly increase company's tendency towards utilizing 3PL while the remaining two variables (BULK, WAREHS) imparting statistically insignificant influence. The results indicate that those companies located outside the region tend to implement a strategy of using more 3PL and also that the larger the trade volume of the company the more 3PL the company uses to improve the efficiency in logistics.

A Study on Development of the Korea Agricultural Population Forecasting Model and long-term Prediction (농가인구예측 모형 개발 및 중장기 전망)

  • Han, Suk-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • 제16권6호
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    • pp.3797-3806
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    • 2015
  • A population decline in rural area is correlated with the number of household, with agricultural workers, as a result, affects the farming income. Agricultural population is a foundation of agriculture structure. Agricultural population decline influences agricultural policies to be implemented for the future and there is concern about slowdown in productivity. The purpose of this study is to build the ability to use the model and conduct applied analyses of various kinds and to make rational agricultural policies by forecasting and analyzing agricultural population change. Unlike previous studies, which have some assumptions about the giving-up farming rate (GFR) of the key points on the agricultural population model or, After estimating only one equation with respect to the total population, and then distribute by sex and age. This study was conducted to investigate the reactions are different from the farmhouse, gender, age by estimating giving-up farming rate (GFR) equations each gender & age. Through this research, we can find that Farm Population changes of the simulation can be performed for a variety of agricultural policy in conjunction with existing agricultural simulation models as well.

Inverse Estimation and Verification of Parameters for Improving Reliability of Impact Analysis of CFRP Composite Based on Artificial Neural Networks (인공신경망 기반 CFRP 복합재료 충돌 해석의 신뢰성 향상을 위한 파라미터 역추정 및 검증)

  • Ji-Ye Bak;Jeong Kim
    • Composites Research
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    • 제36권1호
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    • pp.59-67
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    • 2023
  • Damage caused by impact on a vehicle composed of CFRP(carbon fiber reinforced plastic) composite to reduce weight in the aerospace industries is related to the safety of passengers. Therefore, it is important to understand the damage behavior of materials that is invisible in impact situations, and research through the FEM(finite element model) is needed to simulate this. In this study, FEM suitable for predicting damage behavior was constructed for impact analysis of unidirectional laminated composite. The calibration parameters of the MAT_54 Enhanced Composite Damage material model in LS-DYNA were acquired by inverse estimation through ANN(artificial neural network) model. The reliability was verified by comparing the result of experiment with the results of the ANN model for the obtained parameter. It was confirmed that accuracy of FEM can be improved through optimization of calibration parameters.

Nonparametric compositional data analysis for tourism industry in Gangwon area (강원도 관광산업에 대한 비모수적 구성비 자료 분석)

  • Seongeun Park;Jeong Min Jeon;Young Kyung Lee
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • 제36권5호
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    • pp.473-488
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    • 2023
  • Gangwon-do is one of Korea's most popular tourist destinations, with varying tourism demands and trends across its subregions. It is crucial to identify the characteristics of tourism in each area and compare the tourism patterns over time to devise policies that revitalize tourism in each local government and promote balanced development across regions. In this paper, we classify the regions in Gangwon-do based on tourism data from the last four years and analyze the tourism pattern of each region using the non-Euclidean additive model proposed by Jeon et al. (2021). The model incorporates the proportions of visitors by age groups and the proportions of navigation searches by destination types as two covariates, and the proportions of tourism expenditure types as a response variable. We estimate the model using the smooth-backfitting method and coordinate-wise bandwidth selection. The results are visualized in ternary plots, and changes in tourism patterns over time are analyzed by comparing the ratios of prediction errors to fitting errors.

Cost Estimating method for the Public Office building at the early stage (공공건축물의 초기공사비 산정방법 연구)

  • Koo, Won-Yong;Kim, Jung-Gon;Lee, Jun-Seok;Park, Hyeong-Geun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 한국건설관리학회 2007년도 정기학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.261-266
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    • 2007
  • In this research, we studied an estimating method in client's sight to estimate the total construction cost which is based on the historical cost data at the early stage of the office buildings as a public phase. It is very difficult to analyze the estimation accurately and logically. When a client estimates a project, he/she has to consider there are many issues at the planning step, according as office buildings become gradually diversified as well as their roles continuously extended. Therefore, those are usually make problems for wasting the budget in accordance with the cost estimation errors. Moreover, many kinds of public construction projects, especially such as school, office, sports complex, and the others, have been invested the private finances defined as BTL(Build Transfer Lease) method that are required to manage the detailed process more strictly from initial planning. In order to make an effective planning, the long-term users amount and the building life cycle at the beginning of project should be considered previously and then it may enable to achieve an appropriate project plan. But actually considering overall variables in a building planning is impossible. Accordingly, suggesting a regression model based on the historical cost data from many similar types of office building to support client's role known as estimating the total cost at the early stage. And then performing the test against the proposed model to research the reasonability as using the historical cost data of Japan office buildings.

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Development of Adaptive Numerical Control System(I)Intelligent Selection of Machining Parameters by Neural-Network Methodology (적응제어 수치제어 시스템의 개발 (I) 신경회로망 기법에 의한 절삭계수의 지적인 선정)

  • 정성종
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • 제16권7호
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    • pp.1223-1233
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    • 1992
  • Chemical and mechanical properties of workpieces and tools are important factors for selecting machining parameters in machining process planning. As there is no universal rule representing the machinability defined by metal removal rate, the selection of machining parameters still requires experience-oriented methods. In this paper, a new approach is presented to develop mathematical models for generating optimum machinability in turning processes based on chemical and mechanical properties of workpieces. Neural-Network methodology is introduced to identify mathematical models for machinability. It is confirmed by simulations that the proposed methodology can be used for developing numerical controllers with adaptive control performance.

공생별 Z And의 특이 분광선 연구

  • Lee, Seon-A;Hyeong, Sik
    • 한국지구과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지구과학회 2010년도 춘계학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.120-120
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    • 2010
  • 두 개의 별로 구성되었을 것이라고 여겨진 공생별은 밝기변화는 궤도운동에 따라 밝기가 변하는 것으로 알려졌다. 분광 관측 자료에는 이러한 궤도 변화 외에도 다양한 요소가 밝기 변화에 관여하는 것이 특성으로 나타난다. 또한 공생별은 밝기가 급격하게 증가하고 혹은 감소하기도 하는데, 이는 폭발에 기인하는 것으로 판단된다. 이러한 변화, 궤도 운동에 따라 기하학적 변화와 폭발 현상을 모두 볼 수 있는 대표적인 공생별이 Z And이다. 우리는 선행연구(MIKOLAJEWSKA & KENYON, 1996)에서 발표한 저분산 분광 자료를 이용하여 위상별로 변하는 상대적 선세기 변화를 조사하였다. MIKOLAJEWSKA & KENYON (1996)의 자료는 저분산 기기로(${\Delta\lambda\sim}3{\AA}$), HeI, HII, [OIII]5007, [NeV]등이 관측되었는데, 이러한 선들의 세기를 광이온 모델을 이용하여 예측한 후, 공생별 가스를 이온화시킨 중심별(WD)의 물리적 특성을 연구하였다. 또한 Hyung & Aller가 2002년 8월 12일 Lick Observatory에서 Hamilton Echelle Spectrograph (HES)를 사용하여 3600초 노출 관측한 고 분산 분광자료(${\Delta\lambda\sim}0.1{\AA}$)도 분석하였다. HES 관측 자료는 공생별의 위상이 $\Phi$=0.22이며, HES자료는 $3470{\AA}-9775{\AA}$에서 HI, HII, HeI, HeII, NII, NIII, OII, [OI], [OII], [OIII] 등이 있었다. 이 선들의 선 윤곽을 IRAF와 StarLink/Dipso를 이용하여 분석하고, 각 성분이 위상($\Phi$=0.22)인 상태에서의 관측자에 대해 어떠한 기하학적인 구조를 가지고 있는지 연구하였다. CLOUDY를 사용하여 광 이온 모형성운을 만들어 화학원소 및 성운가스의 물리적 조건을 연구하였다. Z And의 수소의 수밀도($N_H$)는 $10^{8.5}/cm^3$으로 가정하였다. 중심별 온도는 약 110,000K, 광도는 태양의 2000배로 추정되었다.

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Development of water distribution systems performance evaluation framework using machine learning technique (머신러닝을 이용한 상수도시스템 성능평가 프레임워크 개발)

  • Min Jun Kim;Ryul Kim;Hui Geun Kwon;Young Hwan Choi
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.204-204
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    • 2023
  • 2020년 상수도 통계에 따르면 전국 상수도 보급률은 약 99% 정도로 높은 수치를 기록하고 있으나 노후관으로 인한 관로파손 및 수질사고로 인해 효과적인 운영에는 많은 어려움이 존재한다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 기술진단 및 정밀안전진단 등 체계적인 유지관리 규정이 도입되었으며 적용되고 있으며, 이때 시스템의 정량적인 성능평가를 위해 간접평가와 직접평가로 구성된 점수평가법이 적용되었다. 간접평가는 지중에 매설된 관로를 대상으로 매설연도, 관경, 관로연장 등의 노후도인자를 통해 관의 노후도를 추정하고 간접평가 결과 3등급으로 판명되는 관로의 경우 객관적인 관의 상태를 평가하기 위해 시편채취 및 관로 내시진단 등의 직접평가가 수행된다. 하지만 관로의 직접평가는 간접평가결과 3등급의 모든 관로에 대해 수행하기에는 진단비용 및 시간 등 제약조건에 따라 모든 지점에 대한 직접평가 수행에는 한계가 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 이러한 관로 성능평가 기법의 한계를 개선하기 위해 상수도시스템 통합평가 기술을 개발하였다. 개발한 기술은 머신러닝 기법을 적용하여 간접평가 및 직접평가 결과를 토대로 직접평가가 필요한 지점의 결과를 예측하였다. 이를 바탕으로 상수도시스템 평가성능 향상 및 보강 우선순위 선정 단계에서 의사결정권자의 판단에 도움이 될 것으로 판단된다.

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