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http://dx.doi.org/10.5762/KAIS.2015.16.6.3797

A Study on Development of the Korea Agricultural Population Forecasting Model and long-term Prediction  

Han, Suk-Ho (Korea Rural Economic Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society / v.16, no.6, 2015 , pp. 3797-3806 More about this Journal
Abstract
A population decline in rural area is correlated with the number of household, with agricultural workers, as a result, affects the farming income. Agricultural population is a foundation of agriculture structure. Agricultural population decline influences agricultural policies to be implemented for the future and there is concern about slowdown in productivity. The purpose of this study is to build the ability to use the model and conduct applied analyses of various kinds and to make rational agricultural policies by forecasting and analyzing agricultural population change. Unlike previous studies, which have some assumptions about the giving-up farming rate (GFR) of the key points on the agricultural population model or, After estimating only one equation with respect to the total population, and then distribute by sex and age. This study was conducted to investigate the reactions are different from the farmhouse, gender, age by estimating giving-up farming rate (GFR) equations each gender & age. Through this research, we can find that Farm Population changes of the simulation can be performed for a variety of agricultural policy in conjunction with existing agricultural simulation models as well.
Keywords
Agricultural Population; Forecasting Model; Cohort Component Model;
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