• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측인자

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Development of Machine Learning Prediction Models for Wastewater Treatment Plant considering Data Pre-processing (데이터 전처리를 고려한 하수처리장 머신러닝 모델 개발)

  • Kyu Dae Shim;;Chan Soo Park;Dong Kyun Kim;Shin Geol Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.495-495
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    • 2023
  • 본 연구는 하수처리장 운영시스템 자료를 활용하여, 머신러닝 기반의 예측 모델을 개발하고, 모델 정확도 향상에 대하여 검토하였다. 하수처리장에 설치된 각종 센서를 통해 실시간으로 자료가 모니터링되고 있으며, 수집된 자료는 운영시스템에 저장된다. 하수처리장 시스템은 설정된 값과 센서의 측정값을 비교해 이상치가 발생하면 운영자가 즉각적으로 조치하여 문제를 해결하고 있으나, 비정상적인 상황 발생시 이를 대처할 시간이 부족하여 적절한 조치가 이루어지지 못하는 경우가 발생 되고 있다. 따라서, 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위해 A 하수처리장 운영자료를 활용하여 결과 예측이 신속하고 신뢰도 높은 머신러닝 기반의 예측 모델을 개발하고자 하였다. 모델의 예측 정확도 및 신뢰성을 향상하기 위하여 결과에 영향을 미치는 주요 영향 인자를 분석하고, 이를 기반으로 모델의 추가 분석 및 개선을 수행하여 모델의 예측력을 평가하였다. 금회 연구는 데이터 전처리를 과정을 통한 인사이트를 도출하고 이를 활용하여 하수처리장 운영자료 예측 정확도를 높일 수 있었으며, 이 결과를 바탕으로 다른 하수처리장의 모델 개발시에도 유용하게 활용이 가능할 것으로 검토되었다.

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Prediction of Life Expectancy for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Parameters (말기 암 환자에서 임상변수를 이용한 생존 기간 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Choi, Youn-Seon;Hong, Young-Seon;Park, Yong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Ree
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

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Prediction of primary lining loads for soft ground tunnels based on case studies (토사터널의 일차 라이닝에 작용하는 하중 예측 사례 연구)

  • Kim, Hak-Joon
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2004
  • Prediction of lining loads is one of the key issues to be addressed in the design of a tunnel. The validity of the existing design methods is reviewed by comparing the loads calculated using the methods with the field measurements obtained from several tunnels in Edmonton, carada. However, the existing methods are determined not to be fully satisfactory for the prediction of primary lining loads. To account for the stress reduction occurring prior to lining installation, the stress reduction factor is used coupled with an analytical solution for calculation of lining loads. Typical values of dimensionless load factors nD/H for tunnels in Edmonton are obtained from parametric analyses and presented in a table. The loads calculated using the proposed method are compared with field measurements collected from tunnels in Edmonton to verify the method. The method can be used for other tunnels if the tunnels are built in stiff or dense soils, where good ground control is accomplished during the tunnel construction.

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A Basic Study on the Prediction of Collapse of Tunnels Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망 기법을 이용한 터널 붕괴 예측에 관한 기초 연구)

  • Kim, Hong-Heum;Lim, Heui-Dae
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.5-17
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    • 2016
  • Collapse of a tunnel can occur anytime, anywhere due to the special characteristics of tunnel structures and unexpected geological conditions during construction. Tunnel collapse will lead to economic losses and casualties. So various studies are continually being conducted to prevent economic losses, casualties and accidents. In this study, we analyzed data from 56 domestic construction tunnel collapse sites, and input factors to be applied to the artificial neural network were selected by the sensitivity analysis. And for the artificial neural network model design studies were carried out with the selected input factors and optimized ANN model to predict the type of tunnel collapse was determined. By using it, in 12 sites where tunnel collapse occurred applicability evaluation was conducted. Thus, the tunnel collapse type predictability was verified. These results will be able to be used as basic data for preventing and reinforcing collapse in the tunnel construction site.

Development of a System Predicting Maximum Displacements of Earth Retaining Walls at Various Excavation Stages Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 굴착단계별 흙막이벽체의 최대변위 예측시스템 개발)

  • 김홍택;박성원;권영호;김진홍
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2000
  • In the present study, artificial neural network based on the multi-layer perceptron is used and an optimum model is chosen through the process of efficiency evaluation in order to develop a system predicting maximum displacements of the earth retaining walls at various excavation stages. By analyzing the measured field data collected at various urban excavation sites in Korea, factors influencing on the behaviors of the excavation wall are examined. Among the measured data collected, reliable data are further selected on the basis of the performance ratio and are used as a data base. Data-based measurements are also utilized for both teaming and verifying the artificial neural network model. The learning is carried out by using the back-propagation algorithm based on the steepest descent method. Finally, to verify a validity of the formulated artificial neural network system, both the magnitude and the occurring position of the maximum horizontal displacement are predicted and compared with measured data at real excavation sites not included in the teaming process.

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Factors influencing quality of health care: Based on the Korea health panel data (한국의료패널 자료를 활용한 의료서비스 질 영향 요인)

  • Han, Ji Young;Park, Hyeon Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.195-206
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to identify factors affecting quality of health care. Methods: The data were derived from the 2011-2013 Korea health panel survey (beta version 1.0). The data were analyzed using SPSS 21.0 with descriptive statistics, ${\chi}^2$-test, and multiple logistic regression analysis. In general characteristics, common factors influencing the quality of health care were age, marital status, education level, and subjective health status. In variables related to health care utilization, unmet healthcare needs, and limitation of dental care utilization were the significant factors affecting quality of health care. The results of this study show that various factors influence quality of health care. These findings can be used to develop strategies to improve health care.

Public Evacuation Time Estimates within EPZ of Ulchin Site (울진원전 방사선비상계획구역 내의 주민 소개시간 예측)

  • Chung Yang-Geun;Lee Gab-Bock;Bang Sun-Young;Kim Sung-Min;Lee Eun-Mi
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.359-372
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    • 2005
  • The strong protection method of radiation emergency preparedness is the evacuation when a great deal of radionuclide material is released to environment. Required factors for evacuation time estimate of Ulchin nuclear power plant site were investigated. The traffic capacity and the traffic volume by season were investigated for the traffic analysis and simulation within EPZ of Ulchin site. As a result, the background traffic volume by season were established. The NETSIM code was applied to simulate for 12 scenarios in the event of normal traffic/summer peak traffic/winter peak traffic, daytime/night, and normal weather/adverse weather conditions. The results showed that the evacuation time required for total vehicles to move out from EPZ took generally $210\~315$ minutes. The evacuation time took longer about 45 minutes at night than in the daytime, and 45 minutes in adverse weather than normal condition.

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Prediction of Ultimate Scour Potentials in a Shallow Plunge Pool (얕은 감세지내의 극한 세굴잠재능 예측)

  • 손광익
    • Water for future
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.123-131
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    • 1994
  • A plunge pool is often employed as an energy-dissipating device at the end of a spillway or a pipe culvert. A jet from spillways or pipes frequently generates a scour hole which threatens the stability of the hydraulic structure. Existing scour prediction formulas of plunge pool of spillways or pipe culverts give a wide range of scour depths, and it is, therefore, difficult to accurately predict those scour depths. In this study, a new experimental method and new scour prediction formulas under submerged circular jet for large bed materials with shallow tailwater depths were developed. A major variale, which was not used in previous scour prediction equations, was the ratio of jet size to bed material size. In this study, jet momentum acting on a bed particle and jet diffustion theory were employed to derive scour prediction formulas. Four theoretical formulas were suggested for the two regions of jet diffusion, i.e., the region of flow establishment and the region of established flow. The semi-theoretically developed scour prediction formulas showed close agreement with laboratory experiments performed on a movable bed made of large spherical particles.

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Similitude Study on Grain Thrower (차원해석방법에 의한 Thrower의 양곡특성에 관한 연구)

  • 김만수;정창주
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.3572-3584
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    • 1974
  • 본 논문은 Thrower의 양곡성능에 관한 예측 방정식을 차원해석법을 적용하여 유도하는데 있다. Thrower의 능률에 큰 영향을 미친다고 생각되는 인자들간의 관계식들을 Buckingham의 $\pi$이론에 의하여 구하여 졌으며 본연구에 사용한 Thrower는 현재 농촌에서 사용되고 있는 자동탈곡기의 Thrower와 유사한 형으로 제작된 것이며 실험에 사용된 시료는 벼의 경우는 통일벼와 미네히까리 품종이고 보리 품종으로서는 나맥이며, Thrower의 Impeller 직경, 속도 및 투입량을 변화시켜 가면서 각 시료에 대하여 양곡높이를 측정하여 그 예측방정식을 유도하였다. 본 논문에서 얻은 결과는 다음과 같다. 1. Thrower의 양곡성능에 지대한 영향을 미친다고 생각되는 주요 인자들을 Thrower의 양정, impeller의 직경과 속도, 투입량, 곡립의 밀도, 중력가속도등이라 간주하여 Buckingham의 $\pi$이론을 적용하여 이들에 관한 $\pi$항들을 결정하였으며 그 결과는 다음과 같다. {{{{ pi 1= { D} over {H } , pi 2= { { DN}^{ { 1} over {2 } } } over { { g}^{ { 1} over { 2} } }, pi 3= { Q} over { { g}^{ { 1} over {2 } } { rho D}^{ { 2} over {6 } } }}}}} 2. 실험에 의하여 구해진 $\pi$항문의 관계식을 합성하여 Thrower의 양곡성능에 관한 시료별 예측방정식을 구하였으며 이 식들은 아래와 같다. 통일 : $\pi$1=0.1223($\pi$2)-1.1813$\times$($\pi$3)-0.1864 미네히까리 : $\pi$1=0.1185($\pi$2)-0.9663$\times$($\pi$3)-0.1575 나맥 : $\pi$1=0.1599($\pi$2)-1.2350$\times$($\pi$3)-0.1382 3. 현재 농촌에서 사용되고 있는 자동탈곡기체 부착된 Thrower의 회전수, Impeller의 직경 및 투입량은 각각 1,100rpm, 30cm 및 150gr/sec 정도로서 이와같은 수준의 변량들을 기초로 하여 본 논문에서 유도한 예측방정식을 적용하여 Thrower의 양정을 산출한 결과, 통일벼의 경우는 2.6m정도였고 미네히까리 품종과 나맥의 양정은 각각 2.4m, 2.9m 정도였다. 이와같은 사실로부터 1m내외의 양정만으로 되어있는 자동탈곡기 Thrower의 경우 제작비절감, 소요동력 감소를 기하고 아울러 과립의 손상을 줄이기 위해서는 설계 또는 작동조건의 변경을 통해 Thrower의 회전수를 현재 수준이하로 줄일 필요가 있다고 판단되었다.

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A Study on the Ultimate End Bearing Capacity of Drilled Shafts in Rocks (암반에 설치된 현장타설말뚝의 극한선단지지력에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Sangseom;Lee, Jaehwan;Kim, Dohyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.29 no.11
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    • pp.5-15
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    • 2013
  • The end bearing capacity of rock-socketed drilled shafts under axial loading is investigated by Hoek-cell tests and a numerical analysis. From the test results, it was found that the ultimate end bearing capacity ($q_{max}$) was influenced by pile diameter, rock mass modulus and the spacing of discontinuity. A new ultimate end bearing capacity method is proposed by taking end bearing capacity influence factors, including rock mass discontinuity, based on field data. Through comparisons with other field data, the proposed $q_{max}$ method represents a definite improvement in the prediction of ultimate end bearing capacity of rock-socketed drilled shafts.