• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측위험

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The Development and Application of the Officetel Price Index in Seoul Based on Transaction Data (실거래가를 이용한 서울시 오피스텔 가격지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.33-45
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    • 2021
  • Due to recent changes in government policy, officetels have received attention as alternative assets, along with the uplift of office and apartment prices in Seoul. However, the current officetel price indexes use small-size samples and, thus, there is a critique on their accuracy. They rely on valuation prices which lag the market trend and do not properly reflect the volatile nature of the property market, resulting in 'smoothing'. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to create the officetel price index using transaction data. The data, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from 2005 to 2020, includes sales prices and rental prices - Jeonsei and monthly rent (and their combinations). This study employed a repeat sales model for sales, jeonsei, and monthly rent indexes. It also contributes to improving conversion rates (between deposit and monthly rent) as a supplementary indicator. The main findings are as follows. First, the officetel price index and jeonsei index reached 132.5P and 163.9P, respectively, in Q4 2020 (1Q 2011=100.0P). However, the rent index was approximately below 100.0. Sales prices and jeonsei continued to rise due to high demand while monthly rent was largely unchanged due to vacancy risk. Second, the increase in the officetel sales price was lower than other housing types such as apartments and villas. Third, the employed approach has seen a potential to produce more reliable officetel price indexes reflecting high volatility compared to those indexes produced by other institutions, contributing to resolving 'smoothing'. As seen in the application in Seoul, this approach can enhance accuracy and, therefore, better assist market players to understand the market trend, which is much valuable under great uncertainties such as COVID-19 environments.

A Development of Facility Web Program for Small and Medium-Sized PSM Workplaces (중·소규모 공정안전관리 사업장의 웹 전산시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Young Suk;Park, Dal Jae
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.60 no.3
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    • pp.334-346
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    • 2022
  • There is a lack of knowledge and information on the understanding and application of the Process Safety Management (PSM) system, recognized as a major cause of industrial accidents in small-and medium-sized workplaces. Hence, it is necessary to prepare a protocol to secure the practical and continuous levels of implementation for PSM and eliminate human errors through tracking management. However, insufficient research has been conducted on this. Therefore, this study investigated and analyzed the various violations in the administrative measures, based on the regulations announced by the Ministry of Employment and Labor, in approximately 200 small-and medium-sized PSM workplaces with fewer than 300 employees across in korea. This study intended to contribute to the prevention of major industrial accidents by developing a facility maintenance web program that removed human errors in small-and medium-sized workplaces. The major results are summarized as follows. First, It accessed the web via a QR code on a smart device to check the equipment's specification search function, cause of failure, and photos for the convenience of accessing the program, which made it possible to make requests for the it inspection and maintenance in real time. Second, it linked the identification of the targets to be changed, risk assessment, worker training, and pre-operation inspection with the program, which allowed the administrator to track all the procedures from start to finish. Third, it made it possible to predict the life of the equipment and verify its reliability based on the data accumulated through the registration of the pictures for improvements, repairs, time required, cost, etc. after the work was completed. It is suggested that these research results will be helpful in the practical and systematic operation of small-and medium-sized PSM workplaces. In addition, it can be utilized in a useful manner for the development and dissemination of a facility maintenance web program when establishing future smart factories in small-and medium-sized PSM workplaces under the direction of the government.

Development of tracer concentration analysis method using drone-based spatio-temporal hyperspectral image and RGB image (드론기반 시공간 초분광영상 및 RGB영상을 활용한 추적자 농도분석 기법 개발)

  • Gwon, Yeonghwa;Kim, Dongsu;You, Hojun;Han, Eunjin;Kwon, Siyoon;Kim, Youngdo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.8
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    • pp.623-634
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    • 2022
  • Due to river maintenance projects such as the creation of hydrophilic areas around rivers and the Four Rivers Project, the flow characteristics of rivers are continuously changing, and the risk of water quality accidents due to the inflow of various pollutants is increasing. In the event of a water quality accident, it is necessary to minimize the effect on the downstream side by predicting the concentration and arrival time of pollutants in consideration of the flow characteristics of the river. In order to track the behavior of these pollutants, it is necessary to calculate the diffusion coefficient and dispersion coefficient for each section of the river. Among them, the dispersion coefficient is used to analyze the diffusion range of soluble pollutants. Existing experimental research cases for tracking the behavior of pollutants require a lot of manpower and cost, and it is difficult to obtain spatially high-resolution data due to limited equipment operation. Recently, research on tracking contaminants using RGB drones has been conducted, but RGB images also have a limitation in that spectral information is limitedly collected. In this study, to supplement the limitations of existing studies, a hyperspectral sensor was mounted on a remote sensing platform using a drone to collect temporally and spatially higher-resolution data than conventional contact measurement. Using the collected spatio-temporal hyperspectral images, the tracer concentration was calculated and the transverse dispersion coefficient was derived. It is expected that by overcoming the limitations of the drone platform through future research and upgrading the dispersion coefficient calculation technology, it will be possible to detect various pollutants leaking into the water system, and to detect changes in various water quality items and river factors.

Comparison of health indicators and lifestyle according to atherogenic index of plasma in Korean adults in their 20s and 30s (한국 20-30대 성인의 Atherogenic Index of Plasma에 따른 건강지표 및 생활습관비교)

  • Bora Hwang;Yoon Jung Yang
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.168-183
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: Cardiovascular disease is one of the major causes of death not only in Korea but also worldwide. Atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) has been extensively investigated, but studies on nutritional intake and eating habits are scarce. The purpose of this study was to analyze the general characteristics, dietary habits, and nutritional status of Korean adults based on their AIP values using data from the 2013-2015 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Methods: A total number of 3,040 adults in their 20s and 30s were included as study subjects. They were divided into quintiles according to their AIP values. Comparisons were then made among the general information, eating habits, and nutritional intake statuses of the groups. Results: The averages of AIP were different by age, obese status, education, occupation, alcohol drinking frequency, smoking, and exercise in men. As for women, the averages of AIP were different by age, obese status, education, occupation, alcohol drinking frequency, and smoking status. Except for high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, higher AIP values in men were associated with significant increasing trends in health indicators, including systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, insulin, hemoglobin A1c, total cholesterol, triglyceride, and low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol. As for women, as AIP increased, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, insulin, total cholesterol, triglyceride, and LDL-cholesterol showed significant increasing trends except HDL-cholesterol. HDL-cholesterol showed a significant decreasing trend as AIP increased in men and women. In the high AIP group of women, the frequency of breakfast was lower, whereas the frequency of alcohol beverage consumption was higher. Conclusion: Among young adults, the risk of arteriosclerosis was higher in obese, smoking, and non-exercise individuals. More frequent alcohol drink consumption in women is associated with a higher risk of arteriosclerosis. Therefore, weight and lifestyle management are necessary for the prevention of atherosclerosis among young adults.

Incidence and Associated Factors of Delirium after Orthopedic Surgery (정형외과 수술 후 발생한 섬망의 발생 빈도와 관련 인자)

  • Lee, Si-Wook;Cho, Chul-Hyun;Bae, Ki-Cheor;Lee, Kyung-Jae;Son, Eun-Seok;Um, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.157-163
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: To investigate the incidence and associated factors of delirium after orthopedic surgery. Materials and Methods: A total of 2,122 cases, who were older than 20 years and underwent orthopedic surgery at a single medical center during a one year period were included. Among them, 132 patients who were diagnosed with delirium after surgery under the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-V criteria and medicated under the consultation of a psychiatrist were included in the study The differences in the incidence of delirium and several affecting factors were analyzed. Results: The overall incidence of delirium after surgery was 6.2% (132 in 2,122 cases). The mean age of the delirium group was 77.4 years (range, 54-92 years), which was higher than that of the non-delirium group (58.1 years). The percentage of women in the delirium group was 63.6% (84 in 132 cases), which was higher than that of the women in the non-delirium group (49.0%). The incidence of delirium after surgery was 9.3% (85 in 916 cases) due to trauma and 3.9% (47 in 1206 cases) due to disease. The incidence of postoperative delirium according to the surgical region was 29.2% (7 in 24 cases) in two or more regions, 13.7% (72 in 526 cases) in the hip, and 9.6% (14 in 146 cases) in the spine, 3.5% (20 in 577 cases) in the knee-lower leg, 2.5% (5 in 199 cases) in the foot-ankle, 2.4% (11 in 457 cases) in the shoulder-elbow, and 1.6% (3 in 189 cases) in the forearm-wrist-hand. Delirium occurred more rapidly in women and surgery due to disease, and the duration of delirium was longer in patients with dementia and major depressive disorders. Conclusion: The incidence of postoperative delirium was high in cases of surgery due to trauma and in cases of surgery in two or more sites. The incidence of postoperative delirium according to a single surgical region was higher in the order of the hip, spine, and knee. Active intervention is needed regarding the correctable risk factor.

The Changes of Plasma Catecholamines Concentration during Waking and Sleep in Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome Patients with Systemic Hypertension (전신성 고혈압을 동반한 폐쇄성 수면 무호흡증후군 환자에서 각성시와 수면중의 혈장 Catecholamines 농도 변화)

  • Moon, Hwa Sik;Lo, Dae Guen;Choi, Young Mee;Kim, Young Kyoon;Kim, Kwan Hyoung;Song, Jeong Sup;Park, Sung Hak
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.600-612
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    • 1996
  • Background : Recent studies deported that untreated patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome had high long-term mortality rates, and cardiovascular complications of these patients clad a major effect on mortality. Several data indicates that obstructive sheep apnea syndrome contributes to the development of diurnal systemic hypertension. But the pathophysiological mechanism of the development of systemic hypertension in these patients is still uncertain. This study was performed to evaluate the possible role of sympathetic nervous system activity for the development of systemic hypertension in patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. Method : 35 patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome(OSAS) and 13 Control subjects(control) were included in this study. 21 patients of OSAS were normotensives(OSAS-NBP), and 14 patients of OSAS were hypertensives(OSAS-HBP). Full night polysomnography was undertaken to all subjects. We measured plasma norepinephrine(NE) and epinephrine(EP) concentrations during waking and sleep, using high performance liquid chromatography, in all patients and control subjects. Results : In OSAS, OSAS-NBP and control, plasma NE and EP concentrations during sleep were lowed than during waking(p<0.01). But, in OSAS-HBP, these was no difference between during waking and sleep. Plasma NE concentrations during sleep of OSAS, OSAS-NBP and OSAS-HBP were higher than Control(p<0.05). In OSAS-HBP, daytime systolic blood pressure correlated with plasma NE concentration during sleep(r=0.7415, p<0.01), arid correlated inversely with mean arterial oxygen saturation(r=-0.6465, p<0.05) or arterial oxygen saturation nadir(r=-0.6) 14, p<0.05) during sleep. Conclusion : The sympathetic activity during sleep of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome patients was higher than control subjects. In obstructive sleep apnea syndrome patients with systemic hypertension, there was no diurnal variation of sympathetic activity, and there was correlation between daytime systolic blood pressure and sympathetic activity during sleep. These data suggests that chronic hyperactivity of sympathetic nervous system may contribute to the development of diurnal systemic hypertension in patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome.

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The Expression of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) is a Highly Significant Prognostic Factor in Stage IB Carcinoma of the Cervix (병기 IB 자궁경부암에서 혈관내피세포성장인자(VEGF)의 발현이 예후에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee Ik Jae;Park Kyung Ran;Lee Jong Young;Lee Kang Kyoo;Song Ji Sun;Lee Kwang Gil;Cha Dong Soo;Choi Hyun Il
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.335-344
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    • 2001
  • Purpose : The aim of this study was to clarify the role of VEGF expression as an independent prognostic factor and to identify the patients at high risk for poor prognosis in stage IB cervical cancer. Materials and methods : A total of 118 patients with stage IB cervical cancer who had radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection were included in the study. All known high risk factors of the patients were pathologically confirmed from the surgical specimen. Of the 118 patients, n patients were treated with postoperative radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy. VEGF expression was examined using immunohistochemistry in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens of post-hysterectomy surgical materials. A semiquantitative analysis was made using a scoring system of 0, +, ++, and +++ for increasing intensity of stain. We classified the patients with scores from 0 to ++ as low VEGF expression and the patients with a score of +++ as high VEGF expression. Results : Of the 118 patients, 35 patients $(29.7\%)$ showed high VEGF expression. Strong correlations were found between the high VEGF expression and both deep stromal invasion (p=0.01) and the positive pelvic node (p=0.03). The 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates for all 118 patients were $95.5\%\;and\;93.8\%$. The 5-year overall (p=0.03) and disease-free survival (p<0.001) rates were $98.5\%\;and\;100%$ for low VEGF expression (0, +, and ++) and $85.5\%\;and\;79.7\%$ for high VEGF expression, respectively. Pelvic and distant failures for low versus high VEGF expression were $1.2\%$ versus $17.1\%$, (p=0.001) and $0\%$ versus $14.3\%$ (p<0.001), respectively. In a Cox multivariate analysis of survival, the high VEGF expression (p=0.02) and the bulky mass (p=0.02) were significant prognostic factors for overall survival. The high VEGF expression (p=0.002), and bulky mass (p=0.01) demonstrated as significant prognostic indicators for disease free survival. Conclusion : These results showed that VEGF expression was a highly significant predictor for pelvic and distant failure and the most significant prognostic factor of overall and disease free survival for the patients with stage IB cervix cancer treated with radical surgery. We strongly suggest that the immune-histochemistry for VEGF expression be performed in a routine clinical setting in order to identify the patients at high risk for poor prognosis in early stage cervical cancer. Furthermore, postoperative and/or chemotherapy did not reduce the pelvic failure and distant metastasis. To improve the cure rate for the patients with high VEGF expression in stage IB cervical cancer, antiangiogenic therapy including anti-VEGF Ab may be new treatment option.

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The Characteristics of Rural Population, Korea, 1960~1995: Population Composition and Internal Migration (농촌인구의 특성과 그 변화, 1960~1995: 인구구성 및 인구이동)

  • 김태헌
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.77-105
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    • 1996
  • The rural problems which we are facing start from the extremely small sized population and the skewed population structure by age and sex. Thus we analyzed the change of the rural population. And we analyzed the recent return migration to the rural areas by comparing the recent in-migrants with out-migrants to rural areas. And by analyzing the rural village survey data which was to show the current characteristics of rural population, we found out the effects of the in-migrants to the rural areas and predicted the futures of rural villages by characteristics. The changes of rural population composition by age was very clear. As the out-migrants towards cities carried on, the population composition of young children aged 0~4 years was low and the aged became thick. The proportion of the population aged 0~4 years was 45.1% of the total population in 1970 and dropped down to 20.4% in 1995, which is predicted to become under 20% from now on. In the same period(1970~1995), the population aged 65 years and over rose from 4.2% to 11.9%. In 1960, before industrialization, the proportion of the population aged 0~4 years in rural areas was higher than that of cities. As the rural young population continuously moves to cities it became lower than that in urban areas from 1975 and the gap grew till 1990. But the proportion of rural population aged 0~4 years in 1995 became 6.2% and the gap reduced. We can say this is the change of the characteristics of in-migrants and out-migrants in the rural areas. Also considering the composition of the population by age group moving from urban to rural area in the late 1980s, 51.8% of the total migrants concentrates upon age group of 20~34 years and these people's educational level was higher than that of out-migrants to urban areas. This fact predicted the changes of the rural population, and the results will turn out as a change in the rural society. However, after comparing the population structure between the pure rural village of Boeun-gun and suburban village of Paju-gun which was agriculture centered village but recently changed rapidly, the recent change of the rural population structure which the in-migrants to rural areas becomes younger is just a phenomenon in the suburban rural areas, not the change of the total rural areas in general. From the characteristics of the population structure of rural village from the field survey on these villages, we can see that in the pure rural villages without any effects from cities the regidents are highly aged, while industrialization and urbanization are making a progress in suburban villages. Therefore, the recent partial change of the rural population structure and the change of characteristics of the in-migrants toward rural areas is effecting and being effected by the population change of areas like suburban rural villages. Although there are return migrants to rural areas to change their jobs into agriculture, this is too minor to appear as a statistic effect.

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Assessment of Soil Loss Estimated by Soil Catena Originated from Granite and Gneiss in Catchment (소유역단위 화강암/편마암 기원 토양 연접군(catena)에 따른 토양 유실 평가)

  • Hur, Seung-Oh;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Jung, Kang-Ho;Park, Chan-Won;Lee, Hyun-Hang;Ha, Sang-Keun;Kim, Jeong-Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.383-391
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    • 2007
  • This study was conducted for an assessment through the estimation of soil loss by each catchment classified by soil catena. Ten catchments, which are Geumgang21, Namgang03, Dongjincheon, Gapyongcheon01, Gyongancheon02, Geumgang16, Byongsungcheon01, Daesincheon, Bukcheon02, Youngsangang08, were selected from the hydrologic unit map and the detailed soil digital map (1:25,000) for this study. The catchments like Geumgang21, Namgang03, Dongjincheon, Gapyongcheon01 and Gyongancheon02 were mainly composed with soils originated from gneiss. The catchments like Geumgang16, Byongsungcheon01, Daesincheon, Bukcheon02 and Youngsangang08 were mainly composed with soils originated from granites. The grades, which are divided into seven grades with A(very tolerable), B(tolerable), C(moderate), D(low), E(high), F(severe), G(very severe), of soil erosion estimated by USLE in catchments were distributed in most A and B because of paddy land and forestry. In detailed, the soil erosion grade of catchments mainly distributing soils originated from gneiss showed more the distribution of B and C than it of catchments mainly distributing soils originated from granites. The reason of results would be derived from topographic characteristics of soils originated from gneiss located at mountainous. The soil loss according to soil catena linked with Songsan and Jigok series, which are soils originated from gneiss was calculated with $7.66ton\;ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$. The soil loss of Geumgang16, Byongsungcheon01, Daesincheon, Bukcheon02 which have the soil catena linked with Samgak and Sangju soil series originated from granite, was calculated with $5.55ton\;ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$. The soil loss of Youngsangang08 which have the soil catena linked with Songjung and Baeksan soil series originated from granite was calculated with $9.6ton\;ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$, but the conclusion on soil loss in this kind of soil catena would be drawn from the analysis of more catchments. In conclusion, the results of this study inform that the classification of soil catena by catchments and estimation of soil loss according to soil catena would be effective for analysis on the grade of non-point pollution by soil erosion in a catchment.