• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.93-124
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• 2003

This paper studies the financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance during the period from 1999 to 2003. In this study, financial analyst's forecasting activities are focused on the sales, operating income and net income and financial analyst's forecasting accuracy, forecasting revising patterns and forecasting activities to the unexpected firm's operating performance are studied. Some empirical findings in this study are as follows. First, standard estimate error on the sales, operating income and net income are all significantly negative value and so financial analyst's forecast on the firm's operating performance are upwardly biased. Second, domestic financial analyst's forecasting activities is relatively more accuracy than foreign financial analyst's forecasting activities. Third, forecasting time is more close to the end of the operating performance announcement day, forecasting activities are more accuracy. Fourth, comparing with individual financial analyst's forecast, consensus forecast is more accuracy. Fifth, in the comparative forecasting activities study according to the prior firm's operating performance, financial analyst's forecasting revision activities are found to be upward or downward. Sixth, financial analysts overreact in the sales forecast and underreact in the operating income and net income forecast. Seventh, in the empirical analysis on the Easterwood-Nutt's test model(1999) which the firm's performance change are divided into the expected performance change and the unexpected performance change, it is found that financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance are systematically optimistic.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2003.07c
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• pp.1635-1637
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• 2003

송전선의 뇌사고율은 뇌방전 현상, 송전선의 써지 전달 현상, 아킹혼 사이의 섬락 현상 등 다양한 현상이 관련된다. 송전선의 내뢰설계 목표는 이러한 자연현상 및 물리적인 현상이 편차를 포함하고 있다는 것을 인식하고, 가능한 한 정확도가 높은 뇌사고율을 예측을 수행하고 허용 가능한 뇌사고율을 산정하여 송전선로 설계시 반영하는 것이다. 이러한 예측 계산을 위해 한전에서는 EPRI에서 개발한 FLASH 프로그램을 기본으로 사용해 왔으며, 이 예측계산법의 타당성은 예측 사고율과 사고 실적과의 비교에 의해 검토되어야 한다. 한전에서는 과거 10년간의 뇌사고 실적과 FLASH 프로그램으로 계산한 예측 사고율이 차이가 많이 나타나고 있어, FLASH 프로그램의 예측 계산법의 타당성에 의문을 제기하고 있는 상황이다. 일본 전력회사들은 뇌사고율을 예측 계산하기 위하여 1988년에 전력중앙연구소에서 개발한 프로그램을 사용하여 왔으며, 최근에 사고 실적과의 비교 및 관련 연구를 수행하여 예측 계산 프로그램에 사용되는 파라메타를 수정 보완한 LORP2000-1을 완성하였다. 본 논문에서는 지리, 기후적으로 한국과 유사한 일본의 자연현상을 반영한 LORP 프로그램의 예측계산법이 한전 송전선로의 뇌사고율 예측 계산에 적용 가능성을 사고 실적과의 비교를 통해 검토하였다.

• The Optical Journal
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• s.129
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• pp.43-47
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• 2010

일본의 (사)비즈니스기계 정보시스템산업협회(JBMIA/회장 Machida Katsuhiko)는 올해 초 자주통계품목의 "2009년 출하실적" 및 "2010년 2011년 수요 예측"을 정리하여 발표했다. 협회에 따르면 2009년 실적은 1조 3435억엔(전년비 73.4%)이고 2010년과 2011년 예측은 각각 1조 3579억엔(전년비 103.3%)과 1조 3808억엔(전년비 101.7%)으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.137-143
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• 2018

Korea's air passenger traffic has been growing steadily. In this paper, we propose a forecasting model of air passenger demand to ascertain the growth trend of air passenger transportation performance in Korea. We conducted a simulation based on System Dynamics with the demand as a dependent variable, and international oil prices, GDP and exchange rates as exogenous variables. The accuracy of the model was verified using MAPE and $R^2$, and the proposed prediction model was verified as an accurate prediction model. As a result of the demand forecast, it is predicted that the air passenger demand in Korea will continue to grow, and the share of low cost carriers will increase sharply. The addition of the Korean transportation performance of foreign carriers in Korea and the transportation performance of Korean passengers due to the alliance of airlines will provide a more accurate forecast of passenger demand.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.191-196
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• 2015

There have been many studies on statistical forecasting on firm's performance and stock price by applying various financial indicators such as debt ratio and sales growth rate. Selecting predictors for constructing a prediction model among the various financial indicators is very important for precise prediction. Most of the previous studies applied variable selection algorithms for selecting predictors. However, the variable selection algorithm is considered to be at risk of eliminating certain amount of information from the indicators that were excluded from model construction. Therefore, we propose a firm's performance prediction model which principal component analysis is applied instead of the variable selection algorithm, in order to reduce dimensionality of input variables of the prediction model. In this study, we constructed the proposed prediction model by using financial data of American IT companies to empirically analyze prediction performance of the model.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2000.11a
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• pp.231-234
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• 2000

본 연구는 오랜 시간에 거쳐 축적된 고객 데이터베이스를 활용하여 스코어링 방법을 적용할 수 있는 모델링의 개발에 목적이 있다. 기존의 전통적인 스코어링 방법은 인구 통계학적인 변수나 거래 관련 횡단면적인 자료를 이용하여 우량고객과 불량고객을 구분하는 판별분석의 형태가 대부분이다. 하지만 과거 고객에 대한 실적 자료가 시계열 형태를 이루며 존재하기 때문에 이에 대한 적절한 동태적 모형을 적용은 자연스러운 확장이라고 볼 수 있다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 모형은 고객들의 실적관련 시계열 자료를 GARCH 모형에 적합하여 미래의 실적 예측과 이에 대한 표준편차를 예측하여 하위 $10\%$에 해당하는 실적 예측치를 스코어링으로 하는 새로운 방법을 소개하고자 한다. 이 경우 스코어 값이 부호를 가지게 되므로 우량고객을 구분함과 동시에 큰 음수 값을 조사하여 위험 평점도 함께 측정할 수 있어서 실무 측면에서 유용하리라고 본다.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.11-21
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• 2013

This study proposed cost prediction equation model by considering duration, construction, size, actual cost with the subway construction started by the actual cost system which was introduced since 2004. Costs - scale exponent n(confidence range: 0.5 to 0.7) for cost prediction of subway construction was drawn total cost(0.713), net cost(0.77) in point of the 11 subway construction data. The cost prediction equation model of the subway construction which was presented in this study is able to effectively apply to business planning, preliminary investigation, feasibility study, basic design stage to estimate the approximate cost in the future.

• Plant Journal
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.31-37
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• 2019

In this study, to improve the accuracy of forecast of heat demand in the district heating system, this study applied heat demand performance among the main factors of district heating demand forecast in Pankyo area as the heat sales information of the user facility instead of existing heat source facility heat supply information, and compared the existing method with the accuracy based on the actual value. As a result of comparing the difference of the forecasts values of the existing and changed methods based on the performance values over the one week (2018.01.08 ~ 01.14) during the hot water peak, the relative error decreased from 7% to 3% The relative error between the existing and revised forecasts was 9% and 4%, respectively, for the five-month cumulative heat demand from February to February 2018, Also, in case of the weekend where the demand of heat is differentiated, the relative error of the forecasts value is consistently reduced from 10% to 5%.

• The tire
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• s.108
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• pp.43-48
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• 1983

본고는 최근 일본 Exxon Chemical에서 조사 ,발표한 아시아-태평양지역국가들의 자전차용 타이어ㆍ튜브 생산실적 및 장기예측을 요약정리한 것이다. 특히 본자료에서는 이들 국가의 자전자용 타이어ㆍ튜브의 수출입실적동향과 국내판매실적 추이를 자세히 비교검토할 수 있게 하였다. <편집자 주>

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.94-102
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• 2005

This paper performs analysis the load patterns for the all the special days and studies the change of the load patterns for the last 15 years using Expert system based on the load record and the weather condition record. The Expert system is one of the four major load forecasting methods of the power system And it is used for forecasting. loads of the special days based on the Know-how of the load forecasting Experts. After the author simulates the load forecasting using hourly relative factors of the load patterns based on the past load records, there is considerable improved effect. The average errors of past 5 days load forecasting of lunar New Year's Day (year 2002 and 2003) is $3.23{[\%]}$. Using the new method the author forecast loads of the lunar new year's days (the year 2005) and it shows only $1.78{[\%]}$ error. A field manual for the load forecast can be made using proposed method. The authors expect this article could give a guidance to those who wish to be load forecast expert.