• Title/Summary/Keyword: 열모델 보정

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Drought Forecasting Using the Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Network Model (다층 퍼셉트론 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 가뭄예측)

  • Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Jong-Suk;Jang, Ho-Won;Lee, Jang-Choon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.12
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    • pp.1249-1263
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    • 2013
  • In order to minimize the damages caused by long-term drought, appropriate drought management plans of the basin should be established with the drought forecasting technology. Further, in order to build reasonable adaptive measurement for future drought, the duration and severity of drought must be predicted quantitatively in advance. Thus, this study, attempts to forecast drought in Korea by using an Artificial Neural Network Model, and drought index, which are the representative statistical approach most frequently used for hydrological time series forecasting. SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) for major weather stations in Korea, estimated using observed historical precipitation, was used as input variables to the MLP (Multi Layer Perceptron) Neural Network model. Data set from 1976 to 2000 was selected as the training period for the parameter calibration and data from 2001 to 2010 was set as the validation period for the drought forecast. The optimal model for drought forecast determined by training process was applied to drought forecast using SPI (3), SPI (6) and SPI (12) over different forecasting lead time (1 to 6 months). Drought forecast with SPI (3) shows good result only in case of 1 month forecast lead time, SPI (6) shows good accordance with observed data for 1-3 months forecast lead time and SPI (12) shows relatively good results in case of up to 1~5 months forecast lead time. The analysis of this study shows that SPI (3) can be used for only 1-month short-term drought forecast. SPI (6) and SPI (12) have advantage over long-term drought forecast for 3~5 months lead time.

Estimation of Significant Wave Heights from X-Band Radar Based on ANN Using CNN Rainfall Classifier (CNN 강우여부 분류기를 적용한 ANN 기반 X-Band 레이다 유의파고 보정)

  • Kim, Heeyeon;Ahn, Kyungmo;Oh, Chanyeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.101-109
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    • 2021
  • Wave observations using a marine X-band radar are conducted by analyzing the backscattered radar signal from sea surfaces. Wave parameters are extracted using Modulation Transfer Function obtained from 3D wave number and frequency spectra which are calculated by 3D FFT of time series of sea surface images (42 images per minute). The accuracy of estimation of the significant wave height is, therefore, critically dependent on the quality of radar images. Wave observations during Typhoon Maysak and Haishen in the summer of 2020 show large errors in the estimation of the significant wave heights. It is because of the deteriorated radar images due to raindrops falling on the sea surface. This paper presents the algorithm developed to increase the accuracy of wave heights estimation from radar images by adopting convolution neural network(CNN) which automatically classify radar images into rain and non-rain cases. Then, an algorithm for deriving the Hs is proposed by creating different ANN models and selectively applying them according to the rain or non-rain cases. The developed algorithm applied to heavy rain cases during typhoons and showed critically improved results.

The Comparative Analysis of Reservoir Capacity of Chungju Dam based on Multi Dimensional Spatial Information (다차원 공간정보 기반의 충주댐 저수용량 비교분석)

  • Lee, Geun Sang
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.533-540
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    • 2010
  • Dam is very important facility in water supply and flood control. Therefore study needs to analyze reservoir capacity accurately to manage Dam efficiently. This study compared time series reservoir capacity using multi-dimensional spatial information to Chungju Dam reservoir and major conclusions are as follows. First, LiDAR and multi beam echo sounder survey were carried out in land zone and water zone of Dam reservoir area. And calibration process was performed to enhance the accuracy of survey data and it could be constructed that multi dimensional spatial information which was clearly satisfied with the standard of tolerance error by validation with ground control points. Reservoir capacity by water level was calculated using triangle irregular network from detailed topographic data that was constructed by linked with airborne LiDAR and multi beam echo sounder data, and curve equation of reservoir capacity was developed through regression analysis in 2008. In the comparison of the reservoir capacity of 2008 with those of 1986 and 1996, the higher water level goes, total reservoir capacity of 2008 showed decrease because of the increase of sediment in reservoir. Also, erosion and sediment area could be analyzed through calculating the reservoir capacity by the range of water level. Especially the range of water level as 130.0~135.0 which is the upper part of average water level, showed the highest erosion characteristics during 1986~2008 and 1996~2008 and it is considered that the erosion of reservoir slant by heavy rainfall is major reason.

Analysis on the Snow Cover Variations at Mt. Kilimanjaro Using Landsat Satellite Images (Landsat 위성영상을 이용한 킬리만자로 만년설 변화 분석)

  • Park, Sung-Hwan;Lee, Moung-Jin;Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.409-420
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    • 2012
  • Since the Industrial Revolution, CO2 levels have been increasing with climate change. In this study, Analyze time-series changes in snow cover quantitatively and predict the vanishing point of snow cover statistically using remote sensing. The study area is Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. 23 image data of Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+, spanning the 27 years from June 1984 to July 2011, were acquired. For this study, first, atmospheric correction was performed on each image using the COST atmospheric correction model. Second, the snow cover area was extracted using the NDSI (Normalized Difference Snow Index) algorithm. Third, the minimum height of snow cover was determined using SRTM DEM. Finally, the vanishing point of snow cover was predicted using the trend line of a linear function. Analysis was divided using a total of 23 images and 17 images during the dry season. Results show that snow cover area decreased by approximately $6.47km^2$ from $9.01km^2$ to $2.54km^2$, equivalent to a 73% reduction. The minimum height of snow cover increased by approximately 290 m, from 4,603 m to 4,893 m. Using the trend line result shows that the snow cover area decreased by approximately $0.342km^2$ in the dry season and $0.421km^2$ overall each year. In contrast, the annual increase in the minimum height of snow cover was approximately 9.848 m in the dry season and 11.251 m overall. Based on this analysis of vanishing point, there will be no snow cover 2020 at 95% confidence interval. This study can be used to monitor global climate change by providing the change in snow cover area and reference data when studying this area or similar areas in future research.

Construction and estimation of soil moisture site with FDR and COSMIC-ray (SM-FC) sensors for calibration/validation of satellite-based and COSMIC-ray soil moisture products in Sungkyunkwan university, South Korea (위성 토양수분 데이터 및 COSMIC-ray 데이터 보정/검증을 위한 성균관대학교 내 FDR 센서 토양수분 측정 연구(SM-FC) 및 데이터 분석)

  • Kim, Hyunglok;Sunwoo, Wooyeon;Kim, Seongkyun;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2016
  • In this study, Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) and COSMIC-ray soil moisture (SM) stations were installed at Sungkyunkwan University in Suwon, South Korea. To provide reliable information about SM, soil property test, time series analysis of measured soil moisture, and comparison of measured SM with satellite-based SM product are conducted. In 2014, six FDR stations were set up for obtaining SM. Each of the stations had four FDR sensors with soil depth from 5 cm to 40 cm at 5~10 cm different intervals. The result showed that study region had heterogeneous soil layer properties such as sand and loamy sand. The measured SM data showed strong coupling with precipitation. Furthermore, they had a high correlation coefficient and a low root mean square deviation (RMSD) as compared to the satellite-based SM products. After verifying the accuracy of the data in 2014, four FDR stations and one COSMIC-ray station were additionally installed to establish the Soil Moisture site with FDR and COSMIC-ray, called SM-FC. COSMIC-ray-based SM had a high correlation coefficient of 0.95 compared with mean SM of FDR stations. From these results, the SM-FC will give a valuable insight for researchers into investigate satellite- and model-based SM validation study in South Korea.

철도기준점을 이용한 철도중심선형 좌표변환에 관한연구 - 호남고속철도 계획노선을 중심으로 -

  • Moon, Cheung-Kyun;Heo, Joon;Kang, Sang-Du;Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.1141-1151
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    • 2007
  • In this paper through Honam high-speed railroad which is planned with the north and south axis, we will verify the feasibility of the coordinate conversion using railroad control points after regarding current planned-railroad as the linear central axises. From analysis, distortion of Y axis varies 21cm to 40cm diminishing to a gentle straight line, distortion of X axis varies 14cm to 29cm. Through a revision, the deviation value between the coordinates were 6mm to 9mm and it satisfied the allowable error of national geographic information institute which is following ITRF (International Terrestrial Reference Frame) and cadastral boundary survey(10cm). consequently the coordinate conversion is possible using railroad control points as common control points.

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Parameter Sensitivity Analysis for Spatial and Temporal Temperature Simulation in the Hapcheon Dam Reservoir (합천댐 저수지에서의 시공간적 수온모의를 위한 매개변수 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Boram;Kang, Boosik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.12
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    • pp.1181-1191
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    • 2013
  • This study have implemented finding the optimal water temperature parameter set for Hapcheon dam reservoir using CE-QUAL-W2 model. In particular the sensitivity analysis was carried out for four water temperature parameters of wind sheltering coefficient (WSC), radiation heat coefficient (BETA), light extinction coefficient (EXH2O), heat exchange coefficient at the channel bed (CBHE). Firstly, WSC, BETA, EXH2O shows relatively high sensitivity in common during April to September, and CBHE does during August to November. Secondly, as a result of identifying depth range of parameter influence, BETA and EXH2O show 0~9 m and 8~14 m which is thermocline layer close to water surface, CBHE is deep layer 12 m away from bottom. Finally, applying annual or monthly optimal parameter sets indicates that the bias between two sets does not show much differences for WSC and CBHE parameters, but BETA and EXH2O parameters show $0.20^{\circ}C$ and $0.51^{\circ}C$ of monthly average biases for two parameter sets. In particular the bias reveals to be $0.4^{\circ}C$ and $1.09^{\circ}C$ during May and August that confirms the necessity of use of monthly parameters during that season. It is claimed that the current operational custom use of annual parameters in calibration of reservoir water quality model requires the improvement of using monthly parameters.