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Study for Treatment Effects and Prognostic Factors of Bronchial Asthma -Follow Up Over 2 Years- (2년 이상 관찰중인 성안 기관지 천식환자의 치료 효과 및 예후인자에 관한 연구)

  • Choung, Bo-Young;Park, Jung-Won;Kim, Sung-Kyu;Hong, Chein-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.559-573
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    • 1997
  • Background : Asthma causes recurrent episodes of wheezing, breathlessness, chest tightness, and cough. These symptoms are usually associated with widespread but variable airflow limitation that is partly reversible either spontaneously or with treatment. The inflammation also causes an associated increase in airway responsiveness to a variety of stimuli. Method : Of the 403 adult bronchial asthma patients enrolled from March 1992 to March 1994 in Allergy Clinics of Severance Hospital in Yonsei University, this study reviewed the 97 cases to evaluate the treatment effects and to analyse prognostic factors. The patients were classified to five groups according to treatment responses ; group 1 (non control group) : patients who were not controlled during following up, group 2 (high step treatment group) : patients who were controlled longer than 3 months by step 3 or 4 treatment of "Global initiative for asthma, Global strategy for asthma management and prevention" (NHLBI/WHO) with PFR(%) larger than 80%, group 3 (short term control group) : patients who were controlled less than 1 year by step 1 or 2 treatment of NHLBI/WHO, group 4 (intermediate term control group) : patients who were controlled for more than 1 year but less than 2 years by step 1 or 2 treatment of NHLBI/WHO, group 5 (long term control group) : patients who were controlled for more than 2 years by step 1 or 2 treatment of NHLBI/WHO. Especially the patients who were controlled more than 1 year with negatively converted methacholine test and no eosinophil in sputum were classified to methacholine negative conversion group. We reviewed patients' history, atopy score, total IgE, specific IgE, methacholine PC20 and peripheral blood eosinophil count, pulmonary function test, steroid doses and aggrevation numbers after treatment. Results : On analysis of 98 patients, 20 cases(20.6%) were classified to group 1, 26 cases(26.8%) to group 2, 23 cases(23.7%) to group 3, 15 cases(15.5%) to group 4, and 13 cases(13.4%) to groups 5. There were no differences of sex, asthma type, family history, smoking history, allergic rhinitis and aspirin allergy among the groups. In long term control group, asthma onset age was younger, symptom duration was shorter, and initial pulmonary function was better. The long term control group required lower amounts of oral steroid. had less aggrevation during first 3months after starting treatment and shorter duration from enrollment to control Atopy, allergic skin test, sputum and blood eosinophil, total IgE, nonspecific bronchial responsiveness was not significantly different among the groups. Seven out of 28 patients who were controlled more than 1 years showed negatively converted methachloine test and no eosinophils in the sputum. The mean control duration was $20.3{\pm}9.7$ months and relapse did not occur. Conclusion : Patients who had asthma of onset age younger, shorter symptom duration, better PFT, lower treatment initial steps, lower amounts of steroid needs and less aggravation numbers after starting treatment were classified in the long term control groups compared to the others.

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A three-dimensional finite-element analysis of influence of splinting in mandibular posterior implants (스프린팅이 하악 구치부 임플랜트 보철물의 응력분산에 미치는 영향에 관한 삼차원 유한요소분석 연구)

  • Baik, Sang-Hyun;Jang, Ik-Tae;Kim, Sung-Kyun;Koak, Jai-Young;Heo, Seong-Joo
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.157-168
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    • 2008
  • Statement of problem: Over the past two decades, implant supported fixed prosthesis have been widely used. However, there are few studies conducted systematically and intensively on the splinting effect of implant systems in mandible. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the changes in stress distributions in the mandibular implants with splinting or non-splinting crowns by performing finite element analysis. Materials and methods: Cortical and cancellous bone were modeled as homogeneous, transversely isotropic, linearly elastic. Perfect bonding was assumed at all interfaces. Implant models were classified as follows. Group 1: $Br{{\aa}}nemark$ length 8.5mm 13mm splinting type Group 2: $Br{{\aa}}nemark$ length 8.5mm 13mm Non-splinting type Group 3: ITI length 8.5mm 13mm splinting type Group 4: ITI length 8.5mm 13mm Non-splinting type An load of 100N was applied vertically and horizontally. Stress levels were calculated using von Mises stresses values. Results: 1. The stress distribution and maximum von Mises stress of two-length implants (8.5mm, 13mm) was similar. 2. The stress of vertical load concentrated on mesial side of implant while the stress of horizontal load was distributed on both side of implant. 3. Stress of internal connection type was spreading through abutment screw but the stress of external connection type was concentrated on cortical bone level. 4. Degree of stress reduction was higher in the external connection type than in the internal connection type.

A STUDY ON THE RELATIONS OF VARIOUS PARTS OF THE PALATE FOR PRIMARY AND PERMANENT DENTITION (유치열과 영구치열의 구개 각부의 관계에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Hoon;Yang, Yeon-Mi;Lee, Yong-Hee;Kim, Sang-Hoon;Kim, Jae-Gon;Baik, Byeong-Ju
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.569-578
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study was to clarify the palatal arch length, width and height in the primary and permanent dentition. Samples were consisted of normal occlusions both in the primary dentition(50 males and 50 females) and in the permanent dentition(50 males and 50 females). With their upper plaster casts were used and through 3-dimensional laser scanning(3D Scanner, DS4060, LDI, U.S.A.), cloud data, polygonization, section curve and loft surface, fit and horizontal plane were based to measure the palatal arch length, width and height(Surfacer 10.0, Imageware, U.S.A.). T-tests were applied for the statistical analyze of the data. The results were as follows : 1. In the measurement values, the values of the male were higher than those of the female except primary anterior palatal height. There were not only statistically significant differences in anterior palatal width(p<0.05) and posterior palatal width(p<0.01) in primary dentition but palatal width(p<0.05), anterior palatal length(p<0.01), middle and posterior palatal length(p<0.05) in permanent dentition between male and female. 2. In the indices of palate, there were statistically significant differences in height-length index(p<0.05) and width-length index(p<0.01) between male and female in primary dentition. In permanent dentition, there was statistically difference between male and female. 3. In the measurement values, posterior palatal width was increased most greatly. Posterior palatal height, anterior palatal width and anterior palatal length were followed by descending order. On the other hand, anterior palatal height and posterior palatal length were decreased. 4. In the indices of palate, the height-length index, the width-length index and posterior height-width index were increased, but the others were decreased.

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The Characteristics of Rural Population, Korea, 1960~1995: Population Composition and Internal Migration (농촌인구의 특성과 그 변화, 1960~1995: 인구구성 및 인구이동)

  • 김태헌
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.77-105
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    • 1996
  • The rural problems which we are facing start from the extremely small sized population and the skewed population structure by age and sex. Thus we analyzed the change of the rural population. And we analyzed the recent return migration to the rural areas by comparing the recent in-migrants with out-migrants to rural areas. And by analyzing the rural village survey data which was to show the current characteristics of rural population, we found out the effects of the in-migrants to the rural areas and predicted the futures of rural villages by characteristics. The changes of rural population composition by age was very clear. As the out-migrants towards cities carried on, the population composition of young children aged 0~4 years was low and the aged became thick. The proportion of the population aged 0~4 years was 45.1% of the total population in 1970 and dropped down to 20.4% in 1995, which is predicted to become under 20% from now on. In the same period(1970~1995), the population aged 65 years and over rose from 4.2% to 11.9%. In 1960, before industrialization, the proportion of the population aged 0~4 years in rural areas was higher than that of cities. As the rural young population continuously moves to cities it became lower than that in urban areas from 1975 and the gap grew till 1990. But the proportion of rural population aged 0~4 years in 1995 became 6.2% and the gap reduced. We can say this is the change of the characteristics of in-migrants and out-migrants in the rural areas. Also considering the composition of the population by age group moving from urban to rural area in the late 1980s, 51.8% of the total migrants concentrates upon age group of 20~34 years and these people's educational level was higher than that of out-migrants to urban areas. This fact predicted the changes of the rural population, and the results will turn out as a change in the rural society. However, after comparing the population structure between the pure rural village of Boeun-gun and suburban village of Paju-gun which was agriculture centered village but recently changed rapidly, the recent change of the rural population structure which the in-migrants to rural areas becomes younger is just a phenomenon in the suburban rural areas, not the change of the total rural areas in general. From the characteristics of the population structure of rural village from the field survey on these villages, we can see that in the pure rural villages without any effects from cities the regidents are highly aged, while industrialization and urbanization are making a progress in suburban villages. Therefore, the recent partial change of the rural population structure and the change of characteristics of the in-migrants toward rural areas is effecting and being effected by the population change of areas like suburban rural villages. Although there are return migrants to rural areas to change their jobs into agriculture, this is too minor to appear as a statistic effect.

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The Study on the investigation of oriental medical theraphy(oriental medical theraphy by symptoms and signs and Sasang constitutional medicine)and the each effect of oriental medicine, occidental medicine and both joint control (뇌졸중(腦卒中)에 대(大)한 한방치료법(韓方治療法) 연구(硏究)(증치의학(證治醫學)과 사상의학(四象醫學)) 및 한방(韓方), 양방(洋方), 양(洋)·한방(韓方) 협진치료(協診治療) 효과(效果)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Jong-won;Kim, Young-kyun;Kim, Beob-young;Lee, In-seon;Lee, In-seon;Jang, Kyung-jeon;Gwon, Jeong-Nam;Lee, Won-oe;Song, Chang-won;Park, Dong-il
    • Journal of Sasang Constitutional Medicine
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.351-429
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    • 1998
  • The Purpose of Study 1. Inspection of clinical application on TCD to CVA 2. Objective Comparement and analysis about treatment effect of Western-Medicine, Korean Medicine, Cooperative consultation of Korean and Western medicice for CVA The Subject of Study We intended for the eighty six patient of CVA who had been treated in the Oriental Medical Hospital at Dong Eui Medical Center from 1997. 8. I to 1998. 7. 31 1. View of CT, MRI : the patient of Cb infarction 2. Attack Time : The patient who coming hospital falling ill within the early one week The method of study 1. Treat four group of Korean medicine, Constitution medicine, Western medicine, cooperative consultation of Korean medicine and Western medicine. 2. Application of TCD Check the result for three times, immediatly after the attack, two months later, four months later 3. Comparative analysis of each treatment effect by clinical symptoms and pathologic examination 4. The Judgement of the patient The Result From 8/1/1997 to 7/31/1998, We have the following result by clinical analysis intended for CVA 86 patients who had been treated in the Oriental Medical Hospital at Dong Eui Medical Center from 1997. 8. 1 to 1998. 7. 31 in 1. Analysis according to Age The first stage of thirties, forties, seventies is heavier than forties, fifties in improvement and Index of improvement of symptom 2. Analysis according to sex We have no special relation in an average of symptom and improvement, Index improvement 3. Analysis according to Family History We have the better result in first stage and improvement, index improvement when no family history. 4. Analysis according to Past History We have no special relation in past history like hypertension, DM, heart problem 5. Analysis devided two group, above group and under group on the basis of the average in first stage of all patient. We have the better result when the first stage is light, that the first score of barthel index and CNS is high. 6. Analysis of the effect of treatment about Korean medical treatment, Western medical treatment, cooperative treatment. In this study, the highest group of rate of treatment at four contrast groups (Korean medicine, Constitution medicine, Western medicine, cooperative treatment according to dyagnosis and range of treatment was the patient group of doing dyagnosis and method of treatment based on constitution medicine theory. This is that of doing demostation, A-Tx, po-herb-medication according to dyagnosis and treat method of constitution of Lee Je-ma In case of left, the case of dyagnosis any disease according to doctor view but, normal in TCDwas 22-beginning of attack, 20- two weeks later, 11 case-four weeks later in case of right, 15-beginning of attack, 12-two weeks later, 9 case four weeks later. So left vessel compares to right vessel is more interference, in fact more than a 1/2 of the patients of MCA disease can't do dyagnosis. In rate of imparement, the state of pacient improved but there isn't the improved case of result in TCD. 7. In TCD dyagnosis, between the case of inconsus the doctor view specially MCA in brain blood vessel is in large numbers and in total 86's patient, impossible case of dyagnosis according to interferiance of temporal is 21 case. 7. Result study about application of Kreaan medical treatment 1) The impossible patient of observation MCA blood vescular for interference temporal bone happened in large numbers. 2) There is the case having difference result to CT,MRI, MRA result. 3) Because individual difference is large, excluding to ananalogy of symptom. This is normal numerical value that has possibility of being checked as abnormal numerical value 4) there are a lot of cases that the speed of normal part is as similarly measured as that of abnormal part. It means that we cannot judge the disease by this measure 5) It is rare that this measure represent degree of improvement in patient's condition of disease. When we observe patient's condition become better, but we have no case that the result of TCD test better. 6) The result could be appear differently by the technique of the tester or by the experience of the tester 7) In the TCD test, abnormal symptoms is checked at 0 week, but at 2th week, normal symptoms is checked, again at 4th week abnormal is checked. According to the above result, CVA diagnosis is difficult only with TCD, as it appear in diagnosis error check which is suggested in the problem connected to project, for the aged persons who have the worst hardening of part of the cranium (1998. 5. 26 77 of 83 patients is 50s) there is a lot of cases that the measurement is impossible by TCD and the correction of measurement numerical value is decreased, as the age of cerebral infarction is high, TCD is inappropriate to diagnosis equipment through this study.

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A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

Content-based Recommendation Based on Social Network for Personalized News Services (개인화된 뉴스 서비스를 위한 소셜 네트워크 기반의 콘텐츠 추천기법)

  • Hong, Myung-Duk;Oh, Kyeong-Jin;Ga, Myung-Hyun;Jo, Geun-Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.57-71
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    • 2013
  • Over a billion people in the world generate new news minute by minute. People forecasts some news but most news are from unexpected events such as natural disasters, accidents, crimes. People spend much time to watch a huge amount of news delivered from many media because they want to understand what is happening now, to predict what might happen in the near future, and to share and discuss on the news. People make better daily decisions through watching and obtaining useful information from news they saw. However, it is difficult that people choose news suitable to them and obtain useful information from the news because there are so many news media such as portal sites, broadcasters, and most news articles consist of gossipy news and breaking news. User interest changes over time and many people have no interest in outdated news. From this fact, applying users' recent interest to personalized news service is also required in news service. It means that personalized news service should dynamically manage user profiles. In this paper, a content-based news recommendation system is proposed to provide the personalized news service. For a personalized service, user's personal information is requisitely required. Social network service is used to extract user information for personalization service. The proposed system constructs dynamic user profile based on recent user information of Facebook, which is one of social network services. User information contains personal information, recent articles, and Facebook Page information. Facebook Pages are used for businesses, organizations and brands to share their contents and connect with people. Facebook users can add Facebook Page to specify their interest in the Page. The proposed system uses this Page information to create user profile, and to match user preferences to news topics. However, some Pages are not directly matched to news topic because Page deals with individual objects and do not provide topic information suitable to news. Freebase, which is a large collaborative database of well-known people, places, things, is used to match Page to news topic by using hierarchy information of its objects. By using recent Page information and articles of Facebook users, the proposed systems can own dynamic user profile. The generated user profile is used to measure user preferences on news. To generate news profile, news category predefined by news media is used and keywords of news articles are extracted after analysis of news contents including title, category, and scripts. TF-IDF technique, which reflects how important a word is to a document in a corpus, is used to identify keywords of each news article. For user profile and news profile, same format is used to efficiently measure similarity between user preferences and news. The proposed system calculates all similarity values between user profiles and news profiles. Existing methods of similarity calculation in vector space model do not cover synonym, hypernym and hyponym because they only handle given words in vector space model. The proposed system applies WordNet to similarity calculation to overcome the limitation. Top-N news articles, which have high similarity value for a target user, are recommended to the user. To evaluate the proposed news recommendation system, user profiles are generated using Facebook account with participants consent, and we implement a Web crawler to extract news information from PBS, which is non-profit public broadcasting television network in the United States, and construct news profiles. We compare the performance of the proposed method with that of benchmark algorithms. One is a traditional method based on TF-IDF. Another is 6Sub-Vectors method that divides the points to get keywords into six parts. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed system provide useful news to users by applying user's social network information and WordNet functions, in terms of prediction error of recommended news.

Efficient Topic Modeling by Mapping Global and Local Topics (전역 토픽의 지역 매핑을 통한 효율적 토픽 모델링 방안)

  • Choi, Hochang;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.69-94
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    • 2017
  • Recently, increase of demand for big data analysis has been driving the vigorous development of related technologies and tools. In addition, development of IT and increased penetration rate of smart devices are producing a large amount of data. According to this phenomenon, data analysis technology is rapidly becoming popular. Also, attempts to acquire insights through data analysis have been continuously increasing. It means that the big data analysis will be more important in various industries for the foreseeable future. Big data analysis is generally performed by a small number of experts and delivered to each demander of analysis. However, increase of interest about big data analysis arouses activation of computer programming education and development of many programs for data analysis. Accordingly, the entry barriers of big data analysis are gradually lowering and data analysis technology being spread out. As the result, big data analysis is expected to be performed by demanders of analysis themselves. Along with this, interest about various unstructured data is continually increasing. Especially, a lot of attention is focused on using text data. Emergence of new platforms and techniques using the web bring about mass production of text data and active attempt to analyze text data. Furthermore, result of text analysis has been utilized in various fields. Text mining is a concept that embraces various theories and techniques for text analysis. Many text mining techniques are utilized in this field for various research purposes, topic modeling is one of the most widely used and studied. Topic modeling is a technique that extracts the major issues from a lot of documents, identifies the documents that correspond to each issue and provides identified documents as a cluster. It is evaluated as a very useful technique in that reflect the semantic elements of the document. Traditional topic modeling is based on the distribution of key terms across the entire document. Thus, it is essential to analyze the entire document at once to identify topic of each document. This condition causes a long time in analysis process when topic modeling is applied to a lot of documents. In addition, it has a scalability problem that is an exponential increase in the processing time with the increase of analysis objects. This problem is particularly noticeable when the documents are distributed across multiple systems or regions. To overcome these problems, divide and conquer approach can be applied to topic modeling. It means dividing a large number of documents into sub-units and deriving topics through repetition of topic modeling to each unit. This method can be used for topic modeling on a large number of documents with limited system resources, and can improve processing speed of topic modeling. It also can significantly reduce analysis time and cost through ability to analyze documents in each location or place without combining analysis object documents. However, despite many advantages, this method has two major problems. First, the relationship between local topics derived from each unit and global topics derived from entire document is unclear. It means that in each document, local topics can be identified, but global topics cannot be identified. Second, a method for measuring the accuracy of the proposed methodology should be established. That is to say, assuming that global topic is ideal answer, the difference in a local topic on a global topic needs to be measured. By those difficulties, the study in this method is not performed sufficiently, compare with other studies dealing with topic modeling. In this paper, we propose a topic modeling approach to solve the above two problems. First of all, we divide the entire document cluster(Global set) into sub-clusters(Local set), and generate the reduced entire document cluster(RGS, Reduced global set) that consist of delegated documents extracted from each local set. We try to solve the first problem by mapping RGS topics and local topics. Along with this, we verify the accuracy of the proposed methodology by detecting documents, whether to be discerned as the same topic at result of global and local set. Using 24,000 news articles, we conduct experiments to evaluate practical applicability of the proposed methodology. In addition, through additional experiment, we confirmed that the proposed methodology can provide similar results to the entire topic modeling. We also proposed a reasonable method for comparing the result of both methods.

A Study on the Improvement Plans of Police Fire Investigation (경찰화재조사의 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • SeoMoon, Su-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Fire Investigation
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.103-121
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    • 2006
  • We are living in more comfortable circumstances with the social developments and the improvement of the standard of living, but, on the other hand, we are exposed to an increase of the occurrences of tires on account of large-sized, higher stories, deeper underground building and the use of various energy resources. The materials of the floor in a residence modern society have been going through various alterations in accordance with the uses of a residence and are now used as final goods in interioring the bottom of apartments, houses and shops. There are so many kinds of materials you usually come in contact with, but in the first place, we need to make an experiment on the spread of the fire with the hypocaust used as the floors of apartments, etc. and the floor covers you usually can get easily. We, scientific investigators, can get in contact with the accidents caused by incendiarism or an accidental fire closely connected with petroleum stuffs on the floor materials that give rise to lots of problems. on this account, I'd like to propose that we conduct an experiment on fire shapes by each petroleum stuff and that discriminate an accidental tire from incendiarism. In an investigation, it seems that finding a live coal could be an essential part of clearing up the cause of a tire but it could not be the cause of a fire itself. And besides, all sorts of tire cases or fire accidents have some kind of legislation and standard to minimize and at an early stage cope with the damage by tires. That is to say, we are supposed to install each kind of electric apparatus, automatic alarm equipment, automatic fire extinguisher in order to protect ourselves from the danger of fires and check them at any time and also escape urgently in case of fire-outbreaking or build a tire-proof construction to prevent flames from proliferating to the neighboring areas. Namely, you should take several factors into consideration to investigate a cause of a case or an accident related to fire. That means it's not in reason for one investigator or one investigative team to make clear of the starting part and the cause of a tire. accordingly, in this thesis, explanations would be given set limits to the judgement and verification on the cause of a fire and the concrete tire-spreading part through investigation on the very spot that a fire broke out. The fire-discernment would also be focused on the early stage fire-spreading part fire-outbreaking resources, and I think the realities of police tire investigations and the problems are still a matter of debate. The cause of a fire must be examined into by logical judgement on the basis of abundant scientific knowledge and experience covering the whole of fire phenomena. The judgement of the cause should be made with fire-spreading situation at the spot as the central figure and in case of verifying, you are supposed to prove by the situational proof from the traces of the tire-spreading to the fire-outbreaking sources. The causal relation on a fire-outbreak should not be proved by arbitrary opinion far from concrete facts, and also there is much chance of making mistakes if you draw deduction from a coincidence. It is absolutely necessary you observe in an objective attitude and grasp the situation of a tire in the investigation of the cause. Having a look at the spot with a prejudice is not allowed. The source of tire-outbreak itself is likely to be considered as the cause of a tire and that makes us doubt about the results according to interests of the independent investigators. So to speak, they set about investigations, the police investigation in the hope of it not being incendiarism, the fire department in the hope of it not being problems in installments or equipments, insurance companies in the hope of it being any incendiarism, electric fields in the hope of it not being electric defects, the gas-related in the hope of it not being gas problems. You could not look forward to more fair investigation and break off their misgivings. It is because the firing source itself is known as the cause of a fire and civil or criminal responsibilities are respected to the firing source itself. On this occasion, investigating the cause of a fire should be conducted with research, investigation, emotion independent, and finally you should clear up the cause with the results put together.

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Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.