• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2002.11a
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• pp.305-309
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• 2002

소지역에서 직접(direct) 시계열추정을 할 수 있다면, 소지역들 추정에서 최적선형 불편예측량(BLUP)을 일반화 시킬 수 있다. 특히 조사에서 얻어지는 관측 값의 오차가 시간상으로 상관관계가 있다면 Kalman-Filter(K-F)기법이 사용 될 수 있다. 이 연구는 소지역의 실업자 수 추정에서 K-F기법으로 경제활동인구수를 이용하여 현 시점의 소지역 실업자 수를 예측함수(BLUP)를 통해 추정하였다. 그리고 단순 회귀분석 추정치와 비교하였다.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.253-275
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• 2005

This paper empirically examines the reemployment pattern (full-time versus part-time reemployment) using pooling 6 year data of Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS, 1998-2003). A discrete data analysis (multi-nominal logistic regression) is adopted to identify variables predicting reemployment pattern. Among those who lose full-time or part-time job in previous year, women and older people are found to have both longer unemployment durations and lower probabilities of full-time reemployment (versus either each of part-time reemployment or unemployment) than men and younger people. Therefore, the future labor market policy should be more associated with the one for reducing these gender and age differences in worker characteristics.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.239-246
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• 2003

In small area estimation, Best Linear Unbaised Predictor(BLUP) can be directly implicated ,specially, in use of the time series estimation. If there are correlations between observations and error terms over the time, Kalman Filter method can be used. Therefore, using kalman Filtering technique small area estimation of total of unemployments are estimated by BLUP. And for the example of this study, Economic Active Population Survey data were used.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.59-103
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to estimate the effectiveness of vocational training for the unemployed. The results show that the unemployed who received vocational training commended better performances than those unemployed without any vocational training in respect to the duration of job-seeking period and the success rate of obtaining a job, however no significant change can be found in their wage level after holding a job between the two groups. It can be seen from the cost-benefit analysis, although the trained unemployed show better performance than the untrained unemployed, those that were trained by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry(KCCI) do not show better performance than those that were trained through a private vocational train school since the training cost is much higher in the KCCI.

• Venture DIGEST
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• s.62
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• pp.18-19
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• 2004

지금 우리는 청년실업자수가 연일 최대치를 기록하는 시대에 살고 있다. 청년실업은 심각한 사회문제인 동시에 2만불시대를 열어갈 걸림돌로 작용될 수 있다는 것이 전문가들의 의견이다. 이에 청년실업자들에게 필요한 것은 무엇이고, 우리 벤처기업이 그들을 위해 해줄 몫은 무엇인지 비트컴퓨터 조현정 대표에게 들어보았다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.47-96
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• 1997

실업률은 실업의 빈도와 실업기간의 복합체로 결정된다. 따라서 동일한 실업률하에서도 다수의 실업자가 단기실업을 경험할 수 있는 반면, 소수의 실업자가 장기의 실업을 경험할 수도 있다. 실업의 경제비용이란 측면에서 볼 때, 전자의 실업은 부문별 수요변화에 따라 신속한 인력 재배치가 진행됨을 의미하는 반면, 후자의 실업은 구조적인 인력 수급 불균형을 반영하고 있어 높은 경제비용을 수반할 가능성이 높다. 본 논문은 우리나라의 경우 실업률의 지속적인 하락에도 불구하고 1990년대에 들어 실업기간이 장기화되고 있음을 보이고 있다. 이러한 실업 장기화 현상은 노동공급 측면에서 비교적 경제활동이 낮았던 저학력 및 청년, 그리고 여성 근로자층의 구직활동이 적극화된 점과, 노동수요 측면에서는 수요의 고학력화에 따른 장년층 및 저학력 실업자의 구직난을 반영하고 있는 것으로 평가된다. 이러한 결과는 현 경제위기에서 많은 장기실업자가 발생할 가능성이 높음을 시사하고 있어 실직자 지원의 효율적 확대와 직업훈련 효율성 제고의 필요성이 높다고 사료된다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.275-286
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• 2000

After commencing the local self~governing system. it has been requested to make statistics about Si-Gun-Gu level. and the necessity of unemployment statistics in Si-GunGu area has also been proposed as the unemployment became a political issue and social problem due to an I:YIF situation Throughout this paper, therefore, we suggest two small area estimations that can produce the unemployment statistics of Si-Gun-Gu based on the Current Population Survey In addition, we estimate the unemployment number of Si-Gun-Gu in ChungBuk area from the real data of the Current Population Survey. Finally, It was also proved that the applicability of small area estimation was valid in comparison with efficiency of small area estimations.

• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.141-154
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• 2009

With the current sampling scheme, the sampling variance is getting larger in producing smaller regional statistics than the designed area, The larger sample size can make the variance reduced but the efficiency of sample survey lower. The desired confidence level of sampling survey can be obtained using the current sample scheme with the same sample size and administrative data. In this paper, the number of the unemployed of 5 regions in Daejon are estimated using small area estimation methods and the CV values in each estimation method is calculated and compared for their estimation efficiency as empirical study. Jackknife method is proposed to estimate the MSE of synthetic estimator and composite estimator more accurately.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.1-26
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• 1994

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.39
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• pp.5-40
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• 1999

Little is known about unemployment duration and re-employment pattern. This paper empirically examines unemployment duration and re-employment pattern using data by the 1998 national survey about the unemployed and their needs. A parametric survival model(Weibull model) is adopted to identify variables predicting unemployment duration. It is found that the data including people without unemployment insurance as well as people with unemployment insurance fit the Weibull model including the hazard distribution that the hazard of reemployment is increasing at an decreasing rate. Variables that affect unemployment duration are age, householdership, family income, size of prior employment organization, and cause of unemployment. In re-employment pattern, statistically significant variables are age, type of prior employment industry, prior employment pattern, and membership in unemployment insurance. This paper provides a basic knowledge about realities of unemployed individuals in the economic crisis period of Korea, identifies research areas for further research, and develops policy implications for the unemployed.