• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.1030-1037
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• 2002

통신서비스의 성패를 좌우하는 다양한 선택의 문제 중 하나는 신규 서비스를 제공하는 데 있어서, 어떤 기술을 도입하고 언제 상용화할 것인가를 결정하는 것이다 이러한 결정에는 서비스를 제공하는데 수반되는 투자와 비용, 시장 규모의 예측, 경쟁사업자 동향, 기존 또는 유사 기술과의 호환성이나 경쟁 관계 등이 고려되어야 하며, 이를 위해 다양한 경제성분석 방법이 활용되어 오고 있다. 그러나, 전통적인 현금흐름할인법의 경우, 현재 획득 가능하거나 추정할 수 있는 데이터를 이용해서 의사결정을 내리는 방식을 취하고 있으며 유연한 사고를 통해 수시로 변화하는 사업환경을 동태적 입장에서 의사결정을 지원할 수 없다는 한계를 지니고 있다. 최근, 이에 대한 대안으로 실물옵션이론을 활용한 경제성분석 방법이 소개되고 있다. 이는 금융옵션의 특성에 기반을 둔 방법으로, 주변 여건의 변화에 대해 유연한 의사결정을 지원할 수 있다는 측면이 통신서비스와 같은 불확실성이 큰 사업환경에 적합한 방법이 될 것으로 판단된다. 이에 본 논문에서는 새롭게 부각되고 있는 무선 LAN 서비스의 제공을 위한 통신 사업자의 서비스 도입 전략을 실물옵션이론을 활용해서 분석해 보고자 한다. 이를 통해, 통신사업자의 관점에서 무선 LAW 서비스의 제공을 추진할 때 가능성이 높은 몇 가지 시나리오에 대한 대응 방안과 유의점에 대해 고찰한다.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.15-26
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• 2014

This study focus on a economic value of the Big Data technologies by real options model using big data technology company's stock price to determine the price of the economic value of incremental assessed value. For estimating stochastic process of company's stock price by big data technology to extract the incremental shares, Generalized Moments Method (GMM) are used. Option value for Black-Scholes partial differential equation was derived, in which finite difference numerical methods to obtain the Big Data technology was introduced to estimate the economic value. As a result, a option value of big data technology investment is 38.5 billion under assumption which investment cost is 50 million won and time value is a about 1 million, respectively. Thus, introduction of big data technology to create a substantial effect on corporate profits, is valuable and there are an effects on the additional time value. Sensitivity analysis of lower underlying asset value appear decreased options value and the lower investment cost showed increased options value. A volatility are not sensitive on the option value due to the big data technological characteristics which are low stock volatility and introduction periods.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.14 no.11
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• pp.5465-5475
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• 2013

In this study, when to invest in real estate abroad, to present a real option in the way of decision-making. Thus, by using the binomial option model of one of the real thing and DCF, we compared the choice of real estate investment in China and South Korea. Research concerns the real estate market of Shanghai and Seoul, Analyzed the data between 2001-2009. Results were calculated NPV investment period (Net Present Value), Seoul appears in 435.44, Shanghai was 398.26. Investment decision by NPV method will select Seoul. However, as a result of calculating the value using the real option, it was found that for Seoul appear in 615.4, Shanghai has been shown to 626.1, and is suitable for investment in Shanghai. Assuming on the basis of this, that it has invested in practice, and compare the results, Seoul is intended for since 2010, real estate prices fell to 2013 currently, damage has occurred, profit's occurred Shanghai. This ensures that when making decisions in real estate investment and to use the real option than the existing DCF is appropriate.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.578-598
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• 2011

This study estimates the value of photovoltaic core material technology, which is getting attention as a clean energy source. The estimation is based on the real option pricing model (ROPM). This study has two main contributions. The first is in the methodology. The process of modeling volatility, which is the most complicated stage in ROPM, is greatly simplified by using the stock price as a covariate representing the volatility of the real option's basic asset. The second contribution is the application of technology. In this study, the economic value of poly-silicon, a core material in the photovoltaic industry and recently surging in demand, is evaluated as a manufacturing technology. In a case study of a company in the photovoltaic industry, the stochastic process of a basic asset follows geometric Brownian motion (GBM), and the option value of firm A's poly-silicon manufacturing technology is estimated at 3.4 trillion won.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.459-487
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• 2011

A/R CDM project has properties such as irreversibility and uncertainty that Real Option Analysis can be applied to its modelling. This study tries to model A/R CDM using Real Option under CER price uncertainty, and conducts empirical test with the Posco A/R CDM Project case. For precise comparison and decision-making, l-CER's expected present value is calculated from the Spot CER price. As a result, the critical value of the project is lower than the expected l-CER price, which means that the decision to invest made by the project owner is profitable. We can also find out that the level and the range of the discount rate, where is applied to, affect the result; the critical value of the project and the decision-making.

• Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.799-831
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• 2012

This study was accomplished to support farmers who want to introduce Automatic Milking System. The methods of analysis is considered on it as investment analysis that NPV, ROV and FROV. As a classical investment analysis technique, NPV showed 142 thousand won on the every senarioes. On the other hands, The Real Option Analysis showed 153,826, 154,937 and 152,858 on the normal, optimistic and pessimistic senarioes respectively. it is considered as a investment analysis technique for strategic decision-making. But, it may have problem to evaluate present value of expected cash flows and expected costs by a single number. To solve those problems, this paper tried to evaluate Fuzzy Real Option Model which were jointed with a real option model and Fuzzy set model. The result of analysis showed, on respective senarioes, 153,515 to 161,489, 154,612 to 162,970, and 152,573 to 159,835 on the interval estimation. Thereby It is a more realistic in many cases.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.21-30
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• 2002

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.435-451
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• 2014

This paper attempts to evaluate an environmental regulation program which enforces installation of filtering equipment to reduce major air pollutants from used diesel vehicles. A real option model is presented to incorporate fuel cost uncertainty and irreversibility of emission-reducing investment. A finite-life option based on finite difference method is developed to consider the limited life expectancy of used vehicles. After taking into account social benefits from emission reduction and costs from decreasing fuel efficiency after the adoption of filtering technology, the result finds overall positive performance of the Pollution Reduction Program. However, the result suggests that the Program be designed to be more specific to vehicle types to improve program performance.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.95-107
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• 2022

Shipping companies earn profits through cargo transportation, and therefore, investment decisions to purchase ships are more important than anything else. Nevertheless, the cash flow discount method was mainly used in the economic analysis method, which assumes that all situations are static. This study shows that the real option model is useful in the economic analysis of ship investment. This economic analysis took into account the irreversibility of investment and uncertainty of benefits. In particular, this study used a binary option price determination model among real options. In addition, the simulation was conducted using actual investment data of A shipping company. As a result of the analysis, the investment value of used ships according to the net present value method was analyzed as negative (-), but the investment value in the real option model reflecting the flexibility of decision-making was evaluated as having positive (+) economic feasibility. It was analyzed that economic feasibility is affected by profit volatility and discount rate. Therefore, this study is expected to help shipping companies make more flexible decisions by using the real option model along with the existing net present value method when making ship investment decisions.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2011.10a
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• pp.1785-1792
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• 2011

남북분단 60년 한반도의 남북철도 역시 분단되어 왔으나 2007년 5월19일 경의선과 동해선에서 동시에 열차시험운행을 통해 단절되었던 남북철도가 다시 연결되었다. 그러나 이후 경의선 열차 운행이 잠정 중단됨으로써 남북철도 운행은 언제 깨어날지 모르는 깊은 동면에 들어갔다. 남북철도 연결은 정치 사회적인 의미를 고려하지 않더라도 남북한을 하나의 교통망으로 묶는 실질적 수단인 동시에 한반도를 대륙과 연결함으로써 고립에서 벗어날 수 있는 중요한 기회를 제공하는 도구임에 분명하다. 분단 이후 남한과 북한의 철도는 상이(相異)한 시스템을 유지해 왔고, 북한은 오랜 경제난으로 철도보수와 현대화가 뒤쳐져 있는 상황이다. 이는 남북철도가 현대사회에서 요구하는 교통수단으로 정착되기 위해서는 수많은 정책적 기술적 현안들을 해결해야 함을 의미한다. 본 고에서는 남북철도 연결에 수반되는 여러 현안 중 재원조달방안을 중심으로 1)그동안 학계에서 제안된 기존 방법론들을 조사하고, 2)최근 새로운 투자방법으로 주목받고 있는 실물옵션에 대해 설명하고, 3)이를 남북철도 개발에 적용하는 방법에 대해 다루고자 한다.