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The Effect of Pollution Reduction Program for Used Diesel Vehicles in Seoul Metropolitan Area: A Real Option Analysis

수도권 운행차 대기오염 저감사업의 효과: 실물옵션분석

  • Park, Hojeong (Department of Food and Resource Economics, Korea University) ;
  • Hong, Jong Ho (Graduate School of Environmental Studies and Asian Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainability, Seoul National University)
  • 박호정 (고려대학교 식품자원경제학과) ;
  • 홍종호 (서울대학교 환경대학원)
  • Received : 2014.05.26
  • Accepted : 2014.09.15
  • Published : 2014.09.30

Abstract

This paper attempts to evaluate an environmental regulation program which enforces installation of filtering equipment to reduce major air pollutants from used diesel vehicles. A real option model is presented to incorporate fuel cost uncertainty and irreversibility of emission-reducing investment. A finite-life option based on finite difference method is developed to consider the limited life expectancy of used vehicles. After taking into account social benefits from emission reduction and costs from decreasing fuel efficiency after the adoption of filtering technology, the result finds overall positive performance of the Pollution Reduction Program. However, the result suggests that the Program be designed to be more specific to vehicle types to improve program performance.

수도권 미세먼지 발생저감 대책의 일환으로, 노후화된 경유차에서 발생하는 주요 대기오염물질 배출을 저감하기 위한 수도권 운행경유차 공해저감 사업이 시행되었다. 본 사업의 사회적 경제성을 평가하기 위한 방법론을 제시하고, 주요 차량 배출저감장치의 유효성을 비교 분석하였다. 방법론적으로는 노후화된 차량의 차령이 유한하기 때문에, 본 사업의 평가에 적합하도록 만기유한 형태의 실물옵션 모형을 개발하였다. 분석 결과, 공해저감 사업의 사회적 경제성은 전반적으로 확보되며, 버스와 트럭별로 저감장치를 구분하여 선택적으로 이루어질 때 그 효과가 더욱 제고되는 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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