• Title/Summary/Keyword: 신용정보

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Predicting Default of Construction Companies Using Bayesian Probabilistic Approach (베이지안 확률적 접근법을 이용한 건설업체 부도 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Sungmoon;Hwang, Jaeyeon;Kwon, Taewhan;Kim, Juhyung;Kim, Jaejun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2016
  • Insolvency of construction companies that play the role of main contractors can lead to clients' losses due to non-fulfillment of construction contracts, and it can have negative effects on the financial soundness of construction companies and suppliers. The construction industry has the cash flow financial characteristic of receiving a project and getting payment based on the progress of the construction. As such, insolvency during project progress can lead to financial losses, which is why the prediction of construction companies is so important. The prediction of insolvency of Korean construction companies are often made through the KMV model from the KMV (Kealhofer McQuown and Vasicek) Company developed in the U.S. during the early 90s, but this model is insufficient in predicting construction companies because it was developed based on credit risk assessment of general companies and banks. In addition, the predictive performance of KMV value's insolvency probability is continuously being questioned due to lack of number of analyzed companies and data. Therefore, in order to resolve such issues, the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach is to be combined with the existing insolvency predictive probability model. This is because if the Prior Probability of Bayesian statistics can be appropriately predicted, reliable Posterior Probability can be predicted through ensured conditionality on the evidence despite the lack of data. Thus, this study is to measure the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) by utilizing the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach with the existing insolvency predictive probability model and predict the accuracy by comparing the result with the EDF of the existing model.

Impact of High Potential Employee System on Corporate Performance - Focused on Moderating Effect of Competitive Strategy and Technological Environment (핵심인재관리제도가 기업성과에 미치는 영향 - 경쟁전략 및 기술환경의 조절효과를 중심으로 -)

  • Jeon, Dong-Hwa;Chung, Dong-Seop
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.315-338
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    • 2011
  • A "high-potential employee" is an employee who has been identified as having the potential, ability and aspiration for successive leadership positions within the company and identify employees who have the greatest future potential and make them future-ready to take your organization to success. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships of corporate performance on the high potential employee system using the samples from HCCP panel data. This study seeks to identify a significant high potential employee system though empirical research as well. Results of empirical study are summarized. Finally suggestions, implications and limitations of the present study are also discussed. In this article, we explore the role of competitive strategy and technological environment in the introduction of high-potential employees and its link to impact of these performance.

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Survival analysis on the business types of small business using Cox's proportional hazard regression model (콕스 비례위험 모형을 이용한 중소기업의 업종별 생존율 및 생존요인 분석)

  • Park, Jin-Kyung;Oh, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Min-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.257-269
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    • 2012
  • Global crisis expedites the change in the environment of industry and puts small size enterprises in danger of mass bankruptcy. Because of this, domestic small size enterprises is an urgent need of restructuring. Based on the small business data registered in the Credit Guarantee Fund, we estimated the survival probability in the context of the survival analysis. We also analyzed the survival time which are distinguished depending on the types of business in the small business. Financial variables were also conducted using COX regression analysis of small businesses by types of business. In terms of types of business wholesale and retail trade industry and services were relatively high in the survival probability than light, heavy, and the construction industries. Especially the construction industry showed the lowest survival probability. In addition, we found that construction industry, the bigger BIS (bank of international settlements capital ratio) and current ratio are, the smaller default-rate is. But the bigger borrowing bond is, the bigger default-rate is. In the light industry, the bigger BIS and ROA (return on assets) are, the smaller a default-rate is. In the wholesale and retail trade industry, the bigger bis and current ratio are, the smaller a default-rate is. In the heavy industry, the bigger BIS, ROA, current ratio are, the smaller default-rate is. Finally, in the services industry, the bigger current ratio is, the smaller a default-rate is.

Detection and Estimation of a Faults on Coaxial Cable with TFDR Algorithm (Time Frequency Domain Reflectometry 기법을 이용한 Coaxial Cable에서의 결함 감지 및 추정)

  • Song, Eun-Seok;Shin, Yong-June;Choe, Tok-Son;Yook, Jong-Gwan;Park, Jin-Bae;Powers, Edward J.
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.38-50
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, a new high resolution reflectometry scheme, time-frequency domain reflectometry (TFDR), is proposed to detect and locate fault in wiring. Traditional reflectometry methods have been achieved in either the time domain or frequency domain only. However, time-frequency domain reflectometry utilizes time and frequency information of a transient signal to detect and locate the fault. The time-frequency domain reflectometry approach described in this paper is characterized by time-frequency reference signal design and post-processing of the reference and reflected signals to detect and locate the fault. Design of the reference signal in time-frequency domain reflectometry is based on the determination of the frequency bandwidth of the physical properties of cable under test. The detection and estimation of the fault on the time-frequency domain reflectometry relies on the time-frequency domain reflectometry is compared with commercial time domain reflectomtery (TDR) instrument. In these experiments provided in this paper, TFDR locates the fault with smaller error than TDR. Knowledge of time and frequency localized information for the reference and reflected signal gained via time-frequency analysis, allows one to detect the fault and estimate the location accurately.

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진공 측정 기술 개발 동향

  • Sin, Yong-Hyeon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2010.08a
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    • pp.3-3
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    • 2010
  • 이번 성원에드워드 학술상 수상자 선정은, 진공기술의 중요성에 공감하고 진공기술 발전을 위한 노력을 독려하자는 진공학회 회원들의 의견을 모아주신 결과로 생각한다. 본 발표에서는 그동안 한국표준과학연구원에서 수행해 온 진공 기술 연구 및 산학연 협력 네트워크 활동을 소개하고자 한다. 진공기술은 진공 환경을 발생시키고 측정 제어하며, 만들어진 진공 환경 안에서 원하는 작업을 할 수 있도록 하는 기술을 말한다. 우리나라의 주력산업인 반도체 및 디스플레이의 경우 그 생산 설비의 1/3이상이 진공 장비이며 진공 공정을 통해 만들어진다. 때문에 우리나라에서는 주력 산업분야나 그 전후방 산업의 경쟁력 강화 측면에서 진공기술 개발 중요성이 아주 크다. 한국표준과학연구원은 국가 대표 측정 기관으로 국가 측정 표준을 확립하고 측정관련 과학기술을 연구개발하며 그 성과를 보급하여 경제발전과 과학기술발전, 그리고 삶의 질 향상에 기여하는 것을 임무로 하고 있다. 우리나라에서 진공 측정 표준에 대한 연구가 본격적으로 시작된 것은 1984년으로 불용 장비로 불하받은 펌프와 챔버, 그리고 차관으로 도입된 Capacitance Diaphragm Gauge 몇 개만으로 시작되었다. 지금은 발전을 거듭하여 초음파 간섭 수은주 압력계를 비롯하여 정적 팽창시스템, 동적 팽창 시스템 등 진공도 범위별 국가 표준기와 리크 표준기를 자체 개발 하여 국가 측정 표준을 확립하고 있다. 우리나라의 진공 표준 및 측정 능력은 국제기구인BIPM에서 실시하는 국가 측정능력 비교시험을 통해 세계 최고 수준으로 인정 받은 바 있으며 교정검사 등을 통해 산학연에 보급되고 있다. 진공 측정 및 표준기술을 토대로, 1999년부터 과학기술부와 산업자원부의 지원을 받아 산학연이 필요로 하는 펌프 계측기 부품 소재 및 공정 특성을 평가하기 위한 장치와 절차를 개발하였다. 이를 이용해 보급되는 기술 data는 진공부품 및 장비 국산화, 국산제품 신뢰성 제고, 검증부품 사용을 통한 장비 품질 향상, 독자적 장비 기술 확보, 생산품 품질관리 등에 쓰이고 있다. 한국 표준연구원 진공센터의 교정 및 시험 능력은 ISO 9001 인증 획득과 국제 전문가의 review를 거쳐, 국제기구 측정능력표에 등재되어 있어 국제적 신뢰도도 확보하고 있다. 정기적인 진공기술 교류회를 개최하고 진공기술 홈페이지를 운영 하는 등 산학연 정보 교류 및 협력 네트워킹 활성화를 위해 노력한 바 있으며 이 분야의 연구 성과는 '국가 우수 연구성과 100선'에 선정된 바 있고, 산업자원부 지정 '산학연 연계 우수사례' 첫 번째로 선정되기도 하였다. 2008년부터는 진공기술 교류회 등을 통한 네트워킹 활동으로 도출된 기술 수요에 따라 대기업과 중소기업 학교 연구소들과 함께 진공공정 실시간 측정 진단 기술과 센서 개발 연구, 그리고 이들 개발품의 신뢰성 검증 및 평가 기술 개발을 위해 노력하고 있다.

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A Study on Deep Learning-based Pedestrian Detection and Alarm System (딥러닝 기반의 보행자 탐지 및 경보 시스템 연구)

  • Kim, Jeong-Hwan;Shin, Yong-Hyeon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.58-70
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    • 2019
  • In the case of a pedestrian traffic accident, it has a large-scale danger directly connected by a fatal accident at the time of the accident. The domestic ITS is not used for intelligent risk classification because it is used only for collecting traffic information despite of the construction of good quality traffic infrastructure. The CNN based pedestrian detection classification model, which is a major component of the proposed system, is implemented on an embedded system assuming that it is installed and operated in a restricted environment. A new model was created by improving YOLO's artificial neural network, and the real-time detection speed result of average accuracy 86.29% and 21.1 fps was shown with 20,000 iterative learning. And we constructed a protocol interworking scenario and implementation of a system that can connect with the ITS. If a pedestrian accident prevention system connected with ITS will be implemented through this study, it will help to reduce the cost of constructing a new infrastructure and reduce the incidence of traffic accidents for pedestrians, and we can also reduce the cost for system monitoring.

A Comparative Study on the Employment Creation Effect of FinTech Industry in Korea and USA (한국·미국 핀테크(FinTech) 산업의 고용창출효과 비교 연구)

  • Shin, Yong Jae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.12
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    • pp.185-195
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to explore the development of FinTech industry in Korea by comparing and analyzing the effect of job creation in the FinTech industry in Korea and the US. The industry Input-Output table used in the analysis used WIOD, which is composed of the same industrial classification and monetary unit in both Korea and the US. For the analysis, the FinTech industry is composed of ICT sector and financial sector as one industry. This study also compares the employment creation effect in the ICT sector and the financial sector, in addition to the FinTech industry, in order to distinguish the FinTech industry characteristics of the two countries. As a result of the analysis, when the investment or production of 1 million US dollars was made in the FinTech industry in Korea, the employment inducement effect was 11.33 and the employment inducement effect was 9.47, indicating a total employment creation effect of 20.8 persons. In the United States, the Direct employment effect was 8.07 and the indirect employment effect was 7.72, indicating that the employment creation effect was 15.79. However, as a result of classification by the average employment creation effect of the national economy, Korea 's FinTech industry is classified as indirect employment advantage with a high indirect employment inducement effect and the United States is classified as an employment creation advantage with high both direct and indirect employment inducement effect.

Herd Behavior in the Bangladeshi Loan Market (방글라데시 상업은행의 군집행동에 관한 분석)

  • Hyeon, Jeong-Whan
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.123-140
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    • 2018
  • This paper analyzes herd behavior observed in the loan market from 2001 to 2014 using a panel data on commercial banks including state-owned banks, domestic private banks, foreign banks, and Islamic banks. The paper finds evidence that herd behaviors of domestic private and foreign banks have been pronounced and long-lasting around the 2008 global financial crisis when state-owned banks did not show such a behavior. This result shows that since private banks tend to be keen on maximizing profits and avoid financial risks exposed by lending during a financial crisis, their lending decisions are not independent but dependent on whether other banks increase loans or not. On the other hand, Islamic banks do not show herd behavior during the financial crisis. This finding is consistent with earlier studies that Islamic banks have different characteristics, such as profit and operation mechanisms, from other private banks. Another interesting finding is that when it comes to rural loans, all the banks' herd behavior is short-lived and the herding indexes are quite volatile. This finding is attributable to distinct features of rural loans. Usually maturities of rural loans are shorter than city loans and related to the cycle of farming. Agricultural production is heavily dependent on unpredicted factors, such as floods and droughts, not previous year's production. Lastly, the paper finds a herding across bank type that state-owned, foreign, and Islamic banks follow domestic private banks'lending decisions.

Estimation of Volatility among the Stock Markets in ASIA using MRS-GARCH model (MRS-GARCH를 이용한 아시아 주식시장 간의 변동성 추정)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.181-199
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to examine whether or not the volatility of the 1997~1998 Asian crisis still affects the monthly stock returns of Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and China from 1980 to 2018. This study investigated whether the volatility has already fallen to pre-crisis levels. To illustrate the possible structural changes in the unconditioned variance due to the Asian financial crisis, we use the MRS-GARCH model, which is a regime switching model. The main results of this study were as follows: First, the stock return of each country was weak in the high volatility regime except Japan resulted by the Asian financial crisis from 1997 to 1998 until March 2018, and the Asian stock market has not yet calmed down except for the global financial crisis period of 2007 and 2008. Second, the conditional volatility has been significantly and persistently decreased and eliminated after the Asian financial crisis. Thus, we could be judged that the Asian stock market was not fully recovered(stable) due to the Asian crisis including the capital liberalization high inflation, worsening current account deficit, overseas low interest rates and expansion of credit growth in 1997 and 1998, but the Asian stock market was largely settled down, except for the 2007 and 2008 in Global financial crises. Considering the similarity between the Asian stock markets and the similar correlation of the regime switching, it may be worthwhile to analyze the MRS-GARCH model.

Development of specific single nucleotide polymorphism molecular markers for Angelica gigas Nakai (ITS 영역의 HRM 분석을 통한 참당귀(Angelica gigas Nakai)의 특이적 SNP 분자표지 개발)

  • Lee, Shin-Woo;Lee, Soo Jin;Han, Eun-Hee;Shin, Yong-Wook;Kim, Yun-Hee
    • Journal of Plant Biotechnology
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.71-76
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    • 2021
  • Angelica is a perennial plant used widely for medicinal purposes. Information on the genetic diversity of Angelica populations is important for their conservation and germplasm utilization. Although Angelica is an important medicinal plant genus registered in South Korea, no molecular markers are currently available to distinguish individual species from other similar species in different countries, in particular, China and Japan. In this study, we developed single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers derived from internal transcribed spacer regions of the nuclear ribosomal DNA to identify a distinct domestic species, Angelica gigas Nakai, via a high-resolution melting (HRM) curve analyses. We also performed HRM curve analysis of intentionally mixed genomic DNA samples from five Angelica species. Finally, we investigated A. gigas Nakai and A. sinensis using varying ratios of mixed genomic DNA templates. The SNP markers developed in this study are useful for rapidly identifying A. gigas species from different countries.