• Title/Summary/Keyword: 신뢰 모델

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A preliminary assessment of high-spatial-resolution satellite rainfall estimation from SAR Sentinel-1 over the central region of South Korea (한반도 중부지역에서의 SAR Sentinel-1 위성강우량 추정에 관한 예비평가)

  • Nguyen, Hoang Hai;Jung, Woosung;Lee, Dalgeun;Shin, Daeyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.393-404
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    • 2022
  • Reliable terrestrial rainfall observations from satellites at finer spatial resolution are essential for urban hydrological and microscale agricultural demands. Although various traditional "top-down" approach-based satellite rainfall products were widely used, they are limited in spatial resolution. This study aims to assess the potential of a novel "bottom-up" approach for rainfall estimation, the parameterized SM2RAIN model, applied to the C-band SAR Sentinel-1 satellite data (SM2RAIN-S1), to generate high-spatial-resolution terrestrial rainfall estimates (0.01° grid/6-day) over Central South Korea. Its performance was evaluated for both spatial and temporal variability using the respective rainfall data from a conventional reanalysis product and rain gauge network for a 1-year period over two different sub-regions in Central South Korea-the mixed forest-dominated, middle sub-region and cropland-dominated, west coast sub-region. Evaluation results indicated that the SM2RAIN-S1 product can capture general rainfall patterns in Central South Korea, and hold potential for high-spatial-resolution rainfall measurement over the local scale with different land covers, while less biased rainfall estimates against rain gauge observations were provided. Moreover, the SM2RAIN-S1 rainfall product was better in mixed forests considering the Pearson's correlation coefficient (R = 0.69), implying the suitability of 6-day SM2RAIN-S1 data in capturing the temporal dynamics of soil moisture and rainfall in mixed forests. However, in terms of RMSE and Bias, better performance was obtained with the SM2RAIN-S1 rainfall product over croplands rather than mixed forests, indicating that larger errors induced by high evapotranspiration losses (especially in mixed forests) need to be included in further improvement of the SM2RAIN.

Comparative Study on the Independence of Central bank in Transition Countries: Focused on the Russia, Czech Republic, Poland (체제전환기 국가의 중앙은행 독립성 비교 연구 - 러시아, 체코, 폴란드를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang Won
    • Journal of International Area Studies (JIAS)
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.499-524
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to based on review of theoretical and empirical studies to assess the independence of central banks - the former Socialist republics, including the Russian Federation and Czech, Poland. In addition, the work is expected to clarify whether a link exists between independence and the most important economic indicators such as inflation, economic activity, the budget deficit. And The subject of this study are the formal and actual independence of national banks, as well as limiting factors: political and economic. Background investigation of the problem of independence of central banks from the fact that, according to many economists, it is essential to the successful development of a market economy. The effectiveness of any country's economy due to currency volatility, low inflation, high reliability of the banking system, etc. As far as the independence of monetary regulation contributes to these goals - one of the most actively debated issues in the world of economic theory and practice for a long time. The issue of central bank independence is extremely important for Russia, Czech, Poland. In the near future to the central bank has important tasks, among which are the transition to inflation targeting in the rejection of significant intervention in the foreign exchange market, as well as improving the sustainability of the national banking system. Transparency and independence of the Bank of Russia, Czech Republic, Poland, in my view, should be an important factor in achieving these goals. The countries of Czech Republic, Poland have already made a number of steps to bring the status of their banks to the European standards. Many other developing countries are also in the process of reforming their central banks and the improving conditions of their functioning. However, despite the fact that as a model for reform used by the central banks of countries with developed market economies, central banks in developing countries are still yet deprived of the legal, economic and political independence. A different situation exists in transition space. Because of significant differences in the views of the authorities in transition republics at the necessary level of independence of central banks and the exchange rate and monetary policy reform of monetary management in these countries led to different results.

Evaluation of estuary reservoir management based on robust decision making considering water use-flood control-water quality under Climate Change (이수-치수-수질을 고려한 기후변화 대응 로버스트 기반 담수호 관리 평가)

  • Kim, Seokhyeon;Hwang, Soonho;Kim, Sinae;Lee, Hyunji;Kwak, Jihye;Kim, Jihye;Kang, Moonseong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.419-429
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    • 2023
  • The objective of this study was to determine the management water level of an estuary reservoir considering three aspects: the water use, flood control and water quality, and to use a robust decision-making to consider uncertainty due to climate change. The watershed-reservoir linkage model was used to simulate changes in inflow due to climate change, and changes in reservoir water level and water quality. Five management level alternatives ranging from -1.7 El.m to 0.2 El.m were evaluated under the SSP1, 2, 3, and 5 scenariosof the ACCESS-CM2 Global Climate Model. Performance indicators based on period-reliability were calculated for robust decision-making considering the three aspects, and regret was used as a decision indicator to identify the alternatives with the minimum maximum regret. Flood control failure increased as the management level increased, while the probability of water use failure increased as the management level decreased. The highest number of failures occurred under the SSP5 scenario. In the water quality sector, the change in water quality was relatively small with an increase in the management level due to the increase in reservoir volume. Conversely, a decrease in the management level resulted in a more significant change in water quality. In the study area, the estuary reservoir was found to be problematic when the change in water quality was small, resulting in more failures.

1-month Prediction on Rice Harvest Date in South Korea Based on Dynamically Downscaled Temperature (역학적 규모축소 기온을 이용한 남한지역 벼 수확일 1개월 예측)

  • Jina Hur;Eun-Soon Im;Subin Ha;Yong-Seok Kim;Eung-Sup Kim;Joonlee Lee;Sera Jo;Kyo-Moon Shim;Min-Gu Kang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.267-275
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    • 2023
  • This study predicted rice harvest date in South Korea using 11-year (2012-2022) hindcasts based on dynamically downscaled 2m air temperature at subseasonal (1-month lead) timescale. To obtain high (5 km) resolution meteorological information over South Korea, global prediction obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) double-nested modeling system. To estimate rice harvest date, the growing degree days (GDD) is used, which accumulated the daily temperature from the seeding date (1 Jan.) to the reference temperature (1400℃ + 55 days) for harvest. In terms of the maximum (minimum) temperatures, the hindcasts tends to have a cold bias of about 1. 2℃ (0. 1℃) for the rice growth period (May to October) compared to the observation. The harvest date derived from hindcasts (DOY 289) well simulates one from observation (DOY 280), despite a margin of 9 days. The study shows the possibility of obtaining the detailed predictive information for rice harvest date over South Korea based on the dynamical downscaling method.

A Study on the Revitalization of the Competency Assessment System in the Public Sector : Compare with Private Sector Operations (공공부문 역량평가제도의 활성화 방안에 대한 연구 : 민간부분의 운영방식과의 비교 연구)

  • Kwon, Yong-man;Jeong, Jang-ho
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.51-65
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    • 2021
  • The HR policy in the public sector was closed and operated mainly on written tests, but in 2006, a new evaluation, promotion and education system based on competence was introduced in the promotion and selection system of civil servants. In particular, the seniority-oriented promotion system was evaluated based on competence by operating an Assessment Center related to promotion. Competency evaluation is known to be the most reliable and valid evaluation method among the evaluation methods used to date and is also known to have high predictive feasibility for performance. In 2001, 19 government standard competency models were designed. In 2006, the competency assessment was implemented with the implementation of the high-ranking civil service team system. In the public sector, the purpose of the competency evaluation is mainly to select third-grade civil servants, assign fourth-grade civil servants, and promotion fifth-grade civil servants. However, competency assessments in the public sector differ in terms of competency assessment objectives, assessment processes and competency assessment programmes compared to those in the private sector. For the purposes of competency assessment, the public sector is for the promotion of candidates, and the private sector focuses on career development and fostering. Therefore, it is not continuously developing capabilities than the private sector and is not used to enhance performance in performing its duties. In relation to evaluation items, the public sector generally operates a system that passes capacity assessment at 2.5 out of 5 for 6 competencies, lacks feedback on what competencies are lacking, and the private sector uses each individual's competency score. Regarding the selection and operation of evaluators, the public sector focuses on fairness in evaluation, and the private sector focuses on usability, which is inconsistent with the aspect of developing capabilities and utilizing human resources in the right place. Therefore, the public sector should also improve measures to identify outstanding people and motivate them through capacity evaluation and change the operation of the capacity evaluation system so that they can grow into better managers through accurate reports and individual feedback

A Study on the Success Factors of Co-Founding Start-up by Step: Focusing on the Case of Opportunity-type Start-up (공동창업의 단계별 성공요인에 관한 연구: 기회형 창업기업 사례를 중심으로)

  • Yun, Seong Man;Sung, Chang Soo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.141-158
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    • 2023
  • From the perspective of an entrepreneur, one of the most important factors for understanding the inherent limitations of a startup, reducing the risk of failure, and succeeding is the composition of the talent, that is, the founding team. Therefore, a common concern experienced by entrepreneurs in the pre-entrepreneurship stage or the early stage of startup is the choice between independent startups and co-founding start-up. Nonetheless, in Korea, the share of independent entrepreneurship is significantly higher than that of co-founding start-up. On the other hand, focusing on the fact that many successful global innovative companies are in the form of co-founding start-up, the success factors of co-founding start-up were examined. Most of the related preceding studies are studies that identify the capabilities and characteristics of individual entrepreneurs as factors influencing the survival and success of entrepreneurship, and there is a lack of research on partnerships, that is, co-founding start-up, which are common in the field of entrepreneurship ecosystems. Therefore, this study attempted a multi-case study through in-depth interviews, collection of relevant data, analysis of contextual information, and consideration of previous studies targeting co-founders of domestic startups that succeeded in opportunistic startups. Through this, a model for deriving the phased characteristics and key success factors of co-founding start-up was proposed. As a result of the study, the key element of the preliminary start-up stage was 'opportunity', and the success factors were 'opportunity recognition through entrepreneur's experience' and 'idea development'. The key element in the early stages of start-up is "start-up team," and the success factor is "trust and complement of start-up team," and synergy is shown when "diversity and homogeneity of start-up team" are harmonized. In addition, conflicts between co-founders may occur in the early stages of start-ups, which has a large impact on the survival of start-ups. The conflict between the start-up team could be overcome through constant "mutual understanding and respect through communication" and "clear division of work and role sharing." It was confirmed that the core element of the start-up growth stage was 'resources', and 'securing excellent talent' and 'raising external funds' were important factors for success. These results are expected to overcome the limitations of start-up companies, such as limited resources, lack of experience, and risk of failure, in entrepreneurship studies, and prospective entrepreneurs preparing for a start-up in a situation where the form of co-founding start-up is attracting attention as one of the alternatives to increase the success rate. It has implications for various stakeholders in the entrepreneurial ecosystem.

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A Case Study on the Success Factors of Overseas Agricultural Startup: Focusing on the Case of Banana Farm in Cote d'Ivoire (해외 농업스타트업(Agricultural Startup) 성공요인에 관한 사례연구: 'C사'의 제2창업기(바나나 팜 개발사례)를 중심으로)

  • Jin hwan Park;Sang soon Kim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.61-79
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    • 2023
  • This study is a case study of overseas banana farms as a global agricultural startup that has hardly been attempted so far in terms of paradigm shift in the industry, beyond regional limitations. It was researched for the purpose of revealing the success factors of 'global agricultural startup' in terms of business process, entrepreneurship, and management dimensions learned through direct participation and observation at the local level. In order to study global agricultural startups, this study also conducted a comparative analysis of global startups (global startups) and global agricultural startups(global agricultural startups). In fact, the analysis consists of 'definition', 'components', and 'success factors', and we want to confirm the difference between the two concepts that can be distinguished. The case analysis tried to maximize the advantages of 'participatory action research' by directly observing and experiencing banana farms. In the case of banana farm cases, by dividing them into preparation process for farm development and farm development and management process, various variables considered in farm management were explained through the whole process of farm management. Through the process of overcoming and responding to specific failure cases, we tried to secure the reliability and validity of the research, and the case studies related to entrepreneurship, management, and organization analyzed by applying them by subdividing them into theoretical areas belonging to components and management that were theorized in existing preceding studies. This study is almost the first study on the process of creating a local entry business by directly moving the head office overseas rather than entering overseas agriculture as a subsidiary, joint venture or overseas corporation. In particular, it is a unique case that corresponds to agriculture in terms of region(Africa), scale(startup), and industry that have not been introduced so far as a global agricultural startup. In terms of entrepreneurship, it also concretely exemplified how entrepreneurship components such as innovativeness, risk-taking propensity, proactiveness, vision sharing, social contribution, leadership, etc., which have not been attempted so far in agricultural cases, are manifested and effective. The management and cultural aspects also went beyond the argument that only cultural aspects are important in overseas business, and also confirmed individual failure cases and their responses in recruitment, job, wage, retirement, development, organizational structure management, etc. As a result, there is significance and implications of this study in that it provides theoretical confirmation as well as practical and responsive basis for 'entrepreneurship', 'farming management', and 'management' aspects in overseas agricultural startup business operation.

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Re-validation of the Revised Systems Thinking Measuring Instrument for Vietnamese High School Students and Comparison of Latent Means between Korean and Vietnamese High School Students (베트남 고등학생을 대상으로 한 개정 시스템 사고 검사 도구 재타당화 및 한국과 베트남 고등학생의 잠재 평균 비교)

  • Hyonyong Lee;Nguyen Thi Thuy;Byung-Yeol Park;Jaedon Jeon;Hyundong Lee
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.157-171
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    • 2024
  • The purposes of this study were: (1) to revalidate the revised Systems Thinking Measuring Instrument (Re_STMI) reported by Lee et al. (2024) among Vietnamese high school students and (2) to investigate the differences in systems thinking abilities between Korean and Vietnamese high school students. To achieve this, data from 234 Vietnamese high school students who responded to translated Re_STMI consisting of 20 items and an Scale consisting of 20 items were used. Validity analysis was conducted through item response analysis (Item Reliability, Item Map, Infit and Outfit MNSQ, DIF between male and female) and exploratory factor analysis (principal axis factor analysis using Promax). Furthermore, structural equation modeling was employed with data from 475 Korean high school students to verify the latent mean analysis. The results were as follows: First, in the item response analysis of the 20 translated Re_STMI items in Vietnamese, the Item Reliability was .97, and the Infit MNSQ ranged from .67 to 1.38. The results from the Item Map and DIF analysis align with previous findings. In the exploratory factor analysis, all items were loaded onto intended sub-factors, with sub-factor reliabilities ranging from .662 to .833 and total reliability at .876. Confirmatory factor analysis for latent mean analysis between Korean and Vietnamese students yielded acceptable model fit indices (χ2/df: 2.830, CFI: .931, TLI: .918, SRMR: .043, RMSEA: .051). Lastly, the latent mean analysis between Korean and Vietnamese students revealed a small effect size in systems analysis, mental models, team learning, and shared vision factors, whereas a medium effect size was observed in personal mastery factors, with Vietnamese high school students showing significantly higher results in systems thinking. This study confirmed the reliability and validity of the Re_STMI items. Furthermore, international comparative studies on systems thinking using Re_STMI translated into Vietnamese, English, and other languages are warranted in the context of students' systems thinking analysis.

A Study on the Continuous Usage Intention Factors of O2O Service (O2O 서비스의 지속사용의도에 미치는 영향요인 연구)

  • Sung Yong Jung;Jin Soo Kim
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2018
  • A smart phone has been widely spread around world and makes people enjoy online shopping in any time and any place. Recently it also changes the distribution environment. O2O (Online-to-Offline) service becomes new normal due to its convenience of ease shopping of product and services. O2O service market shows steady and steep growth, It is reported that, however, 80% of the businesses has been discontinued within the first year because of unstable business models, customer dissatisfaction and distrust of service. Therefore, it is very important research issue to find out influential factors promoting continuous usage intention of O2O service. Previous study shows that it only considers online characteristics and lack of analysis about offline characteristics and social impact factors. The purpose of this paper is to find out continuous usage intention factors of O2O services by literature review, case analysis, and empirical test. A comprehensive research model and related hypothesis are developed and tested by using a structural equation, Survey was carried out among users who have used O2O service including payment service for at least once. Finally 611 samples are selected out of total 813 surveys. The result shows that the model is theoretically proved and 12 out of 17 hypotheses are accepted. The contribution of this paper is that it provides a new theoretical research model about continuous usage intention factors as well as practical guidelines about promoting continuous usage and growth strategies of O2O service.

Design and Implementation of MongoDB-based Unstructured Log Processing System over Cloud Computing Environment (클라우드 환경에서 MongoDB 기반의 비정형 로그 처리 시스템 설계 및 구현)

  • Kim, Myoungjin;Han, Seungho;Cui, Yun;Lee, Hanku
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.71-84
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    • 2013
  • Log data, which record the multitude of information created when operating computer systems, are utilized in many processes, from carrying out computer system inspection and process optimization to providing customized user optimization. In this paper, we propose a MongoDB-based unstructured log processing system in a cloud environment for processing the massive amount of log data of banks. Most of the log data generated during banking operations come from handling a client's business. Therefore, in order to gather, store, categorize, and analyze the log data generated while processing the client's business, a separate log data processing system needs to be established. However, the realization of flexible storage expansion functions for processing a massive amount of unstructured log data and executing a considerable number of functions to categorize and analyze the stored unstructured log data is difficult in existing computer environments. Thus, in this study, we use cloud computing technology to realize a cloud-based log data processing system for processing unstructured log data that are difficult to process using the existing computing infrastructure's analysis tools and management system. The proposed system uses the IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service) cloud environment to provide a flexible expansion of computing resources and includes the ability to flexibly expand resources such as storage space and memory under conditions such as extended storage or rapid increase in log data. Moreover, to overcome the processing limits of the existing analysis tool when a real-time analysis of the aggregated unstructured log data is required, the proposed system includes a Hadoop-based analysis module for quick and reliable parallel-distributed processing of the massive amount of log data. Furthermore, because the HDFS (Hadoop Distributed File System) stores data by generating copies of the block units of the aggregated log data, the proposed system offers automatic restore functions for the system to continually operate after it recovers from a malfunction. Finally, by establishing a distributed database using the NoSQL-based Mongo DB, the proposed system provides methods of effectively processing unstructured log data. Relational databases such as the MySQL databases have complex schemas that are inappropriate for processing unstructured log data. Further, strict schemas like those of relational databases cannot expand nodes in the case wherein the stored data are distributed to various nodes when the amount of data rapidly increases. NoSQL does not provide the complex computations that relational databases may provide but can easily expand the database through node dispersion when the amount of data increases rapidly; it is a non-relational database with an appropriate structure for processing unstructured data. The data models of the NoSQL are usually classified as Key-Value, column-oriented, and document-oriented types. Of these, the representative document-oriented data model, MongoDB, which has a free schema structure, is used in the proposed system. MongoDB is introduced to the proposed system because it makes it easy to process unstructured log data through a flexible schema structure, facilitates flexible node expansion when the amount of data is rapidly increasing, and provides an Auto-Sharding function that automatically expands storage. The proposed system is composed of a log collector module, a log graph generator module, a MongoDB module, a Hadoop-based analysis module, and a MySQL module. When the log data generated over the entire client business process of each bank are sent to the cloud server, the log collector module collects and classifies data according to the type of log data and distributes it to the MongoDB module and the MySQL module. The log graph generator module generates the results of the log analysis of the MongoDB module, Hadoop-based analysis module, and the MySQL module per analysis time and type of the aggregated log data, and provides them to the user through a web interface. Log data that require a real-time log data analysis are stored in the MySQL module and provided real-time by the log graph generator module. The aggregated log data per unit time are stored in the MongoDB module and plotted in a graph according to the user's various analysis conditions. The aggregated log data in the MongoDB module are parallel-distributed and processed by the Hadoop-based analysis module. A comparative evaluation is carried out against a log data processing system that uses only MySQL for inserting log data and estimating query performance; this evaluation proves the proposed system's superiority. Moreover, an optimal chunk size is confirmed through the log data insert performance evaluation of MongoDB for various chunk sizes.