• Title/Summary/Keyword: 신뢰성이론

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Relative comparison studies on daily record high maximum temperatures compared to daily record low minimum temperatures in the Korea (우리나라 일 최고기온과 일 최저기온 극값 발생빈도의 상대 비교 연구)

  • Cho, Seon-Ju;Park, Moo-Jong;Kim, Sang-Dan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.361-361
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    • 2011
  • 우리나라의 과거 기상자료 분석결과를 보면 최근 10년(1999~2008년)과 과거 30년(1971~2000년)의 자료를 비교하였을 때 연 평균 강수량과 기온이 각각 9.1%, 0.6$^{\circ}C$ 상승하였고 2010년 전 지구 기온은 $14.52^{\circ}C$로 20세기 평균인 $13.90^{\circ}C$보다 $0.62^{\circ}C$ 높아 기온 관측이 시작된 1880년 이래 최고를 기록하였으며(2005년과 공동 1위), 2010년 북반구 기온편차는 $0.73^{\circ}C$로 역대 기온 관측 사상 가장 높았고 남반구 또한 $0.61^{\circ}C$로 상위 6위에 위치되었다. 또한 우리나라에서는 겨울철 이상 저온 현상을 경험하기도 하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 우리나라 전역 기상청 60개 지점 1980년 1월 1일부터 2009년 12월 31 일까지의 자료를 바탕으로 기록 일 최저 기온 및 기록 일 최고 기온의 발생빈도를 분석하고자 하였다. 확률이론에 따르면 동일한 분포를 갖는 확률변수의 독립적인 시계열의 경우 최대값 또는 최소값의 발생빈도는 ��/n의 비율로 감소하게 된다. 여기서 /n은 관측이 시작된 시점부터 해당 시점까지 자료의 수이다. 본 연구의 경우에는 특정 지점의 특정 시점에 관측된 일 최대 기온이 동일한 분포를 갖는 독립적인 시계열을 이룬다고 한다면(즉, 증가 또는 감소 추세가 있지 않다면), 어떤 해에 관측된 일 최고 기온이 그 동안에 특정 시점에 관측된 일 최고 기온들보다 높을 확률은 1/n이 될 것이다. 그러나 만약 일 최대(또는 최저) 기온의 기록경신 발생빈도가 감소 비율로부터 유의하게 이탈하게 된다면, 이는 일 최고(또는 최저) 기온의 분산이 커지거나 작아지는 현상이 벌어진 경우이거나 일 최고(또는 최저) 기온의 평균이 어떤 추세를 갖게 되는 경우가 될 것이다. 그 결과 기록 일 최저 기온 발생빈도에 대한 기록 일 최고 기온 발생빈도의 비는 현재 약 2.5정도의 값이 나오는 것으로 분석되었으며 이러한 결과는 1980년 이후로 기록 일 최고 기온의 발생빈도는 /n의 비율로 감소하지만 기록 일 최저 기온의 발생빈도는 /n의 비율보다 낮게 발생하기 때문인 것으로 파악되었다. 이러한 과거 자료의 분석을 통하여 지금까지 진행되어 오고 있는 기후변화의 패턴을 보다 명확하게 인식하고자 하였으며, 추후 다양한 기후수치실험으로부터 도출된 결과들의 신뢰성을 평가할 때 기초적인 비교 자료를 제공할 수 있을 것이다.

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A Study on Selection Process of Web Services Based on the Multi-Attributes Decision Making (다중 속성 의사결정에 의한 웹 서비스 선정 프로세스에 관한 연구)

  • Seo Young-Jun;Song Young-Jae
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.13D no.4 s.107
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    • pp.603-612
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    • 2006
  • Recently the web service area is rapidly growing as the next generation IT paradigm because of increase of concern about SOA(Services-Oriented Architecture) and growth of B2B market. Since a service discovery through UDDI(Universal Description, Discovery and Integration) is limited to a functional requirement, it is not considered an effect on frequency of service using and reliability of mutual relation. That is, a quality as nonfunctional aspect of web service is regarded as important factor for a success between consumer and provider. Therefore, the web service selection method with considering the quality is necessary. This paper suggests the agent-based quality broker architecture and selection process which helps to find a service providing the optimum quality that the consumer needs in a position of service consumer. A theory of agent is accepted widely and suitable for proposed system architecture in the circumstance of distributed and heterogeneous environment like web service. In this paper, we considered the QoS and CoS in the evaluation process to solve the problem of existing researches related to the web service selection and used PROMETHEE(Preference Ranking Organization MeTHod for Enrichment Evaluations) as an evaluation method which is most suitable for the web service selection among MCDM approaches. PROMETHEE has advantages that solve the problem that a pair-wise comparison should be performed again when comparative services are added or deleted. This paper suggested a case study with the service composition scenario in order to verify the selection process. In this case study, the decision making problem was described on the basis of evaluated values for qualities from a consumer's point of view and the defined service level.

Capacity and Length of Compression Lap Splice in Unconfined Concrete of 100MPa and Less Compressive Strength (횡보강근이 없는 100 MPa 이하 콘크리트의 철근 압축이음 강도와 이음길이)

  • Chun, Sung-Chul;Lee, Sung-Ho;Oh, Bo-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.659-666
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    • 2010
  • Although the compression splice needs not be longer than the tension slice due to existence of end bearing, current design codes impose a longer compression lap splice than a tension lap splice in high strength concrete. Hence, new criteria for the compression lap splice including the effects of concrete strength need to be sought for economical design involving ultra-high strength concrete. An experimental study has been conducted with column specimens in concrete strength of 80 and 100 MPa. Test results show that the splice strength can be evaluated to be proportional to square root of compressive strength of concrete. Bar stress developed by end bearing is not affected by splice length and is expressed with a function of the square root of concrete strength. Mean value of stresses developed by end bearing is 16.5 square root of $f_{ck}$. The stresses developed by bond in compression splices are nearly identical to those in tension splices and, therefore, strength increment of compression splices is attributed to end bearing only. From regression analysis of 58 tests, a design equation is proposed for compression lap splice in 40 to 100 MPa of compressive strength of concrete. By the proposed equation, the anomaly of lap lengths in tension and compression is got rid of. In addition, the equation has a reliability equivalent to those of the specified strengths of materials.

Evaluation of Flexible Pavement Layer Moduli Using the Depth Deflectometer and Flexible Pavement Behavior under Various Vehicle Speeds (아스팔트 콘크리트 포장구조체의 내부처짐에 의한 물성추정과 주행속도에 따른 거동분석)

  • Choi, Jun-Seong;Kin, Soo-Il;Yoo, Ji-hyung
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.135-145
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    • 2000
  • A new procedure needs to be developed to predict the dynamic layer properties under moving truck loads. In this study, a computer code to evaluate layer moduli of asphalt concrete pavement from measured interior deflections at various depths were developed and verified from numerical model tests. Interior deflections of the pavement are measured from Multi-Depth Deflectometer(MDD). It was found that errors between the given and backcalculated moduli in numerical analysis were less than 0.32% for several numerical models tested. When impact loads were used, a technique to determine the depth to virtual rigid base was proposed through the analysis of compressive wave velocity and impulse loading durations. It was found that errors between the given and backcalculated moduli in numerical analysis were less than 0.114% when virtual rigid base was considered in numerical analysis. The pavement behavior must be evaluated under various vehicle speeds when determining the dynamic interaction between the loading vehicle and pavement system. To evaluate the dynamic behavior on asphalt concrete pavement under various vehicle speeds, truck moving tests were carried out. From the test results with respect to vehicle speed, it was found that the vehicle speed had significant effect on actual response of the pavement system. The lower vehicle speed generates the higher interior deflections, and the lower dynamic modulus.

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A Study on the Development and Validation of an Assessment Tool of KBU Core Competency (기독교대학의 핵심역량 측정 도구 개발 사례 연구 : K대학교를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Seong Ah;Nam, Sunwoo;Lee, Eun Chul
    • Journal of Christian Education in Korea
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    • v.62
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    • pp.187-225
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a assessment tool that can be used to measure core competencies by describing operational definitions of the six core competencies of KBU and constructing sub-factors accordingly. The followings are the results of this study. First, this study analyzed previous research on KBU 6 competencies and set operational definitions through Bible verses describing KBU core competencies. Second, the sub-elements according to the definition of core competency were selected through previous research and the drafting of assessment tools for each sub-element was developed. And then, confirmed the validity of the tool as a suitable tool for KBU, through a review of professors who are fluent in KBU's founding philosophy and policies. The assessment tools were revised based on feedback from the professors. Third, in order to validate the assessment tool, the researchers conducted a survey on students in the second semester of 2018. The data was collected, the reliability was checked based on the data, the validity was verified through EFA and CFA, and the final assessment tool was confirmed. In conclusion, this study is meaningful in developing the KBU core competency assessment tool, and it is expected that will be able to systematically manage the KBU competency of students.

Shear Strength Characteristics of Weathered Granite Soil below the Freezing Point (동결온도 조건에서의 화강풍화토 전단강도 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Joonyong;Choi, Changho
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2013
  • Analysis via classical soil mechanics theory is either ineffective or inappropriate for fully describing stress distribution or failure conditions in cold regions, since mechanical properties of soils in cold regions are different from those reported in the classical soil mechanics theory. Therefore, collecting and analyzing technical data, and systematic and specialized research for cold regions are required for design and construction of the structure in cold regions. Freezing and thawing repeat in active layer of permafrost region, and a loading condition affecting the structure changes. Therefore, the reliable analysis of mechanical properties of frozen soils according to various conditions is prerequisite for design and construction of the structure in cold regions, since mechanical properties of frozen soils are sensitive to temperature condition, water content, grain size, relative density, and loading rate. In this research, the direct shear apparatus which operates at 30 degrees below zero and large-scaled low temperature chamber are used for evaluating shear strength characteristics of frozen soils. Weathered granite soil is used to analyzed the shear strength characteristics with varying freezing temperature condition, vertical confining pressure, relative density, and water content. This research shows that the shear strength of weathered granite soil is sensitively affected by various conditions such as freezing temperature conditions, normal stresses, relative densities, and water contents.

An Instrument Development and Validation for Measuring High School Students' Systems Thinking (고등학생들의 시스템 사고 측정을 위한 측정 도구 개발과 타당화)

  • Lee, Hyonyong;Kwon, Hyuksoo;Park, Kyungsuk;Lee, Hyundong
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.995-1006
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    • 2013
  • The purposes of this study were to develop an instrument to measure high school students' systems thinking and to validate the scale. The scale of systems thinking was made up for 5 factors - systems thinking, mental model, shared vision, personal mastery, and team learning through analyses of related literature. Six items per factor were constructed and the scale consisted of a total of 30 items for the pretest. After exploratory factor analysis, the number of total items was reduced to 20 items. For the main test, 280 students were sampled from high school and analyzed valid cases were 260 students. The finding of the exploratory factor analysis indicated 5 factors in the model, and 4 items per single factor. The result of confirmatory factor analysis was generally appropriate and acceptable (5 factor model: $x^2/df$=1.275, TLI=.946, CFI=.959, RMSEA=.033). The reliability for 20 items turned out to be reliable because the Cronbach's alphas were .840 and .604~.723 per each factor. This study should be expanded to various school levels and should be standardized for further research. The subsequent studies regarding diverse learning program development and implementation and the verification on the students' impact within the developed program can be recommended.

A Study on the Determinants of Entry Mode in the Overseas Market for Food Service Enterprises (외식기업의 해외 시장 진입 방식 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jin;Han, Kyung-Soo
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.15-27
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    • 2010
  • As most companies in the world are much interested in the overseas market as well as in the domestic market, many Korean food service enterprises came to focus on extending their branches to the overseas market. However, lack of business strategies including market research, marketing strategies, localization, etc. has made them continue to fail in market entry. The purpose of this study is to develop entry mode of determinants of Korean food service enterprises, considering their characteristic factors and environment factors in the overseas market. To do this, companies which have a head quarter in Korea and over 2 year business experience in the overseas market were chosen and used for a self-administered questionnaire survey. Statistical processing, including descriptive statistics, logistic regressing analysis, and multi regression analysis using an SPSS/PC 12.0 statistical package were conducted The result is as follows. First, explanation suitability was 85% of the entry mode in the overseas market. Second, as business size was smaller, product differentiation was higher, and CEO's will for success in the overseas market was higher, independent entry mode in the overseas market was likely to he chosen. Lastly, as the uncertainty of demand and trade barrier were lower, and a sociocultural gap was smaller, independent entry mode in the overseas market was likely to be chosen.

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Liberating and Reviving the Concept of EA Business Architecture (EA 비즈니스 아키텍처 개념의 개방과 확대에 대한 제언)

  • Juhn, Sung Hyun
    • Journal of Information Technology and Architecture
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.435-449
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    • 2013
  • The performance of Enterprise Architecture (EA) in the Korea's public IT domain produces mixed results and responses. On the one hand, EA earns positive remarks and enthusiasm as a central government-wide IT governance framework with its significant IT budget saving records. At the same time, however, the response to EA at the department and agency level is tainted with disappointment, fatigue, and reluctance. This essay suggests that this is perhaps caused by the sterile lackluster concept of EA Business Architecture employed in the current EA practice of the enterprise. The possibility for liberating and reviving the concept of EA Business Architecture is explored. Various conceptual axes and branches of EA Business Architecture are identified based upon extensive EA field experience and observations, and discussions are made on how the concept of EA Business Architecture can be expanded and amplified on those conceptual axes and branched. The resulting EA Business Architecture conceptualization is consolidated into an illustrative typology for EA Business Architecture. In the end the theoretical and practical implications of the research are discussed along with its contribution and limitation.

Development of Cut-in Lane Changing Model Based on Observed Driver's Behavior in Uninterrupted Traffic Flow (연속교통류에서의 끼어들기 행태 분석 및 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Kyung-Hee;Chang, Myung-Soon;Kim, Jin-Tae;Kim, Eung-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.145-157
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    • 2004
  • Microscopic freeway simulation models project the uncertain values of performance measures for subject traffic conditions by explaining drivers' driving behavior with lane changing and car-following models. However, the existing lane changing models are limited to gap acceptance oriented passive behavior of drivers and not able to capture more-or-less aggressive driving behavior(e.g. cut-in lane changing) ordinarily obseved in field. This paper suggests the definition of cut-inlane changing and presents its characteristics based on the findings from two different freeway on- and off-ramp sections. In addition, this paper proposes a new lane changing model capable of handling both passive and active drivers' driving behavior for better performance of simulations. The proposed lane changing model was tested with Hanyang Simulatin (HYTSIM), a microscopic freeway simulation program developed for this study. The HYTSIM simulation results reflecting the performance of the proposed lane changing model were compared against the field data. The test results showed that the distribution of gaps collected when vehicles change lanes were statistically identical to the field data at 95% confidence level.