• Title/Summary/Keyword: 신뢰상한

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Drought Risk Analysis Using Stochastic Rainfall Generation Model and Copula Functions (추계학적 강우발생모형과 Copula 함수를 이용한 가뭄위험분석)

  • Yoo, Ji Young;Shin, Ji Yae;Kim, Dongkyun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.425-437
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    • 2013
  • This study performed the bivariate drought frequency analysis for duration and severity of drought, using copula functions which allow considering the correlation structure of joint features of drought. We suggested the confidence intervals of duration-severity-frequency (DSF) curves for the given drought duration using stochastic scheme of monthly rainfall generation for 57 sites in Korea. This study also investigated drought risk via illustrating the largest drought events on record over 50 and 100 consecutive years. It appears that drought risks are much higher in some parts of the Nakdong River basin, southern and east coastal areas. However, such analyses are not always reliable, especially when the frequency analysis is performed based on the data observed over relatively short period of time. To quantify the uncertainty of drought frequency curves, the droughts were filtered by different durations. The 5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95% confidence intervals of the drought severity for a given duration were estimated based on the simulated rainfall time series. Finally, it is shown that the growing uncertainties is revealed in the estimation of the joint probability using the two marginal distributions since the correlation coefficient of two variables is relatively low.

Regional Low Flow Frequency Analysis Using Bayesian Multiple Regression (Bayesian 다중회귀분석을 이용한 저수량(Low flow) 지역 빈도분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Ug;Lee, Kil-Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.325-340
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    • 2008
  • This study employs Bayesian multiple regression analysis using the ordinary least squares method for regional low flow frequency analysis. The parameter estimates using the Bayesian multiple regression analysis were compared to conventional analysis using the t-distribution. In these comparisons, the mean values from the t-distribution and the Bayesian analysis at each return period are not significantly different. However, the difference between upper and lower limits is remarkably reduced using the Bayesian multiple regression. Therefore, from the point of view of uncertainty analysis, Bayesian multiple regression analysis is more attractive than the conventional method based on a t-distribution because the low flow sample size at the site of interest is typically insufficient to perform low flow frequency analysis. Also, we performed low flow prediction, including confidence interval, at two ungauged catchments in the Nakdong River basin using the developed Bayesian multiple regression model. The Bayesian prediction proves effective to infer the low flow characteristic at the ungauged catchment.

An Elementary School Children Screen Test for Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in Taegu City (대구지역 국민학교 어린이의 주의력 결핍 과잉 운동 장애 경향에 대한 선별 검사)

  • Park, Hyung-Bae;Kim, Jin-Sung;Jang, Sang-Ruyl;Park, Sung-Chan;Suh, Hye-Sao;Lee, Kwang-Hun;Kim, Young-Uck;Kim, Chang-Su
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.56-74
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    • 1995
  • The authors applied ADDES-HV parent evaluation scale for the purpose of screening test to 538 2nd grade elementary school students from March 1994 to May. The results were as follows: There was no differences in scores of ADHD between schools. In comparing the male and female between three school students, male students showed signifieant high scores (p<0.05) than female students in the score of ADDES-HV subscale and total. There was no significant differences in ADDES-HV scale between male students and female students in both ADHD patients and normal controls. In reliability test for test and retest, the reliability coefficient was higher satisfatorily and that of inattention was 0.80, inpulsivity was 0.69, hyperactivity was 0.63 and the total score was 0.82. In reliability test by internal consistancy, the Cronbach ${\alpha}$ coefficient of patient group was 0.85(p<0.05) and that of normal control was 0.84(p<0.05). The Concurrent validity between ADDES-HV scale and DSM-III-R scale was 0.57(p<0.05) in ADHD patient group and 0.84(p<0.05) in normal control group. In discriminant validity test between ADHD patient group and normal control, the ADHD patient group showed higher score(p<0.05). The total disciminant capacity of the patient group in ADDES-HV scale was 94.44%. When we regard the cut off point as standard deviation 1.5, the male student was 80 score and the female student was 69 score. In this point of view, ADDES-HV scale was proved to be the useful screening test tool for ADHD research and showed higher reliability and validity in applying to Korean subjects.

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Estimating the compound risk integrated hydrological / hydraulic / geotechnical uncertainty of levee systems (수문·수리학적 / 지반공학적 불확실성을 고려한 제방의 복합위험도 산정)

  • Nam, Myeong Jun;Lee, Jae Young;Lee, Cheol Woo;Kim, Ki Young
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.277-288
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    • 2017
  • A probabilistic risk analysis of levee system estimates the overall level of flood risk associated with the levee system, according to a series of possible flood scenarios. It requires the uncertainty analysis of all the risk components, including hydrological, hydraulic and geotechnical parts computed by employing MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo), MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) and FOSM (First-Order Second Moment), presents a joint probability combined each probability. The methodology was applied to a 12.5 km reach from upstream to downstream of the Gangjeong-Goryeong weir, including 6 levee reaches, in Nakdong river. Overtopping risks were estimated by computing flood stage corresponding to 100/200 year high quantile (97.5%) design flood causing levee overflow. Geotechnical risks were evaluated by considering seepage, slope stability, and rapid drawdown along the levee reach without overflow. A probability-based compound risk will contribute to rising effect of safety and economic aspects for levee design, then expect to use the index for riverside structure design in the future.

A Study on Validation of OCLI for Evaluating of Life-Long Learning Ability (평생학습능력 평가를 위한 계속학습조사도구(OCLI: Oddi Continuing Learning Inventory) 타당화 연구)

  • Han, Ji-Young;Lee, Min-Young
    • Journal of Engineering Education Research
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.75-83
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study was to verify factor structure and validation of Oddi Continuing Learning Inventory (OCLI) and prove up possibility of usage as an evaluation tool for evaluating life-long learning. 330 students in school of engineering of I university at Incheon province were responded for OCLI. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. As the exploratory factor analysis results, 24 items in original version were converted to 19 items. The total reliability was .774 and the total covariance was 40.57%. As the confirmatory factor analysis results, four items were removed and GFI .938, AGFI .915, CFI .908 appeared to fit all the criteria. The RMSEA index 0.054 also appeared to fit significantly higher.

Flood stage analysis considering the uncertainty of roughness coefficients and discharge for Cheongmicheon watershed (조도계수와 유량의 불확실성을 고려한 청미천 유역의 홍수위 해석)

  • Shin, Sat-Byeol;Park, Jihoon;Song, Jung-Hun;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.10
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    • pp.661-671
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study was to analyze the flood stage considering the uncertainty caused by the river roughness coefficients and discharge. The methodology of this study involved the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) to quantify the uncertainty bounds applying three different storm events. The uncertainty range of the roughness was 0.025~0.040. In case of discharge, the uncertainty stemmed from parameters in stage-discharge rating curve, if h represents stage for discharge Q, which can be written as $Q=A(h-B)^C$. Parameters in rating curve (A, B and C) were estimated by non-linear regression model and assumed by t distribution. The range of parameters in rating curve was 5.138~18.442 for A, -0.524~0.104 for B and 2.427~2.924 for C. By sampling 10,000 parameter sets, Monte Carlo simulations were performed. The simulated stage value was represented by 95% confidence interval. In storm event 1~3, the average bound was 0.39 m, 0.83 m and 0.96 m, respectively. The peak bound was 0.52 m, 1.36 m and 1.75 m, respectively. The recurrence year of each storm event applying the frequency analysis was 1-year, 10-year and 25-year, respectively.

A Study on the Selection of AMC of Curve Number (유출곡선지수의 선행토양함수조건 선정 기준 연구)

  • Kim, Jee-Sang;Ahn, Jaehyun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.519-535
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    • 2012
  • In order to establish a rainfall-runoff model, calibration of hydrological parameters for the model is very important. Especially, Curve Number(CN), estimated by NRCS method, is a main factor to apply unit hydrograph theory to calculation of peak discharge. For using NRCS method, it is needed selecting AMC because CN is strongly connected with that. In this study, we focus our concern on finding a applicable standard for selecting AMC for CN. For this, three dams which are Boryeong, Habchon, Namgang are selected as target basins to use observed data including rainfall and dam inflow. As a result of this research, it is found that CN must be included as a calibrated parameter to calculate effective rainfall for the rainfall-runoff model. Also, it is preferred to use PWRMSE of HEC-HMS program as a objective function for optimizing hydrological parameters. From the analyzing result of variation of AMC for peak discharge, it is recommended to apply AMC-III to estimation of CN for calculating effective rainfall of design hydrograph.

유기농 이유식 제품 제조 기술 현황과 소비 전망

  • Sin, Hyeon-Ho
    • 한국유가공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2006.06a
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2006
  • 최근에 들어 웰빙(well-being)과 함께 로하스(LOHAS: Lifestyle of Health and Sustainability)란 개념이 급속도로 확산되고 있으며, 이를 만족하는 식품으로 친환경 농산물과 유기 가공 식품이 대두되고 있다. 여러 마케팅 조사에서도 친환경 농산물과 유기 가공 식품의 소비자 선호도는 상당히 높게 나타난다. 이러한 다양한 소비자의 요구에 맞춰 우리의 2세에게 더욱 안전하고 좋은 품질의 이유식을 제공하고 나아가 한계에 이른 '지구와 환경을 해치지 않는 지속가능 한 소비'를 유도하고자 업체들은 유기농 이유식을 개발하고 있다. 유기농 소비자 10명 가운데 7명은 최근의 웰빙 붐 때문에 유기농에 관심을 가지게 됐으며, 가격이 다소 비싸더라도 가족의 건강을 위해 친환경 농산물을 구입하는 것으로 나타났으며, 국내외를 막론하고 친환경 농산물과 유피 가공 식품의 시장 동향을 살펴보면 지속적으로 증가하고 있으나, 아직까지 일반 제품에 비해 미미한 수준이며, 국내는 인증 제도가 없으나, 유기 가공 식품표시기준에 따라 표시되고 있다. 일반적으로 이유식이라 함은 식품공전에서 영 ${\cdot}$ 유아용 곡류 조제식만을 말하지만 넓게 축산물의 조제유류, 영아용 조제식, 성장기용 조제식, 기타 영 ${\cdot}$ 유아식을 포함할 수 있으며, 유기농 이유식 제조 현황을 살펴보면 동결, 분무, 드럼 등의 건조와 퍼핑이나 Extruder를 통한 알파화로 원료를 가공하여 은 살균, 멸균, 균질, 혼합, 건조, 냉각, 포장 등의 다양한 공정으로 이루어진 분무건조나 유동층이나 연속식 과립기를 사용하여 분말이나 입자형 이유식을 생산하며, 동결 건조를 하여 열수를 가해 죽 상태로 먹을 수 있도록 한 제품, 데워서 떠 먹일 수 있도록 병조림이나 레토르트 유동식 제품, 바로 마실 수 있는 쥬스류, 두유류, 과자 등으로 생산하고 있다. 주된 메이저4사는 일동후디스, 남양유업, 매일유업, 파스퇴르유업으로 다양한 제품들을 생산하고 있으며, 두유를 위주로 한 정식품, 연세우유와 종근당건강, 다양한 다국적 기업들의 제품이 수입되고 있는 실정이다. 이유식 시장도 96년 하반기부터 정체를 보이는 상태다. 2002년도 이유식 시장은 약 1,300억원 규모로 업체들의 고가 신제품과 유기농 이유식 출시로 판매 금액은 소폭 상승하였으나 판매 수량은 큰 변동이 없다. 저출산에 따른 양육비 집중과 유기농 제품에 대한 저변이 크게 확산돼 베이비 웰빙은 어느 정도 예견된 일이거니와 이미 미국 등 선진국에선 유아에 그치지 않고 아동까지 유기농과 고급 원료를 사용한 고가의 웰빙 제품이 봇물을 이루고 있는 상황이어서 유아식 시장은 어느 때보다 경쟁이 치열할 것이며, 국내 식품 업체들이 너도나도 유기농 제품과 매장사업에 뛰어들고 있다. 유기 가공 식품의 지속적인 발전을 위해서 (1) 국내산/수입산 공통으로 인증 제도가 도입되고 원료 농산물뿐만 아니라, 모든 공정이나 공장에 대한 종합적 관리와 동일한 인증 표시가 이루어져야 한다. (2) 정부 부처의 이기를 타파할 수 있는 법정부적 기구나 대책이 필요하다. (3) 유기 가공 식품을 취급하는 업계에서는 기존 3%의 비의도적 혼입치의 고려나 상한선 재설정을 요구하고 진정한 유기 가공 식품으로 공정 경쟁한다. (4) 활발한 인증심사원의 교육과 배출로 인증이나 심사기관의 민간 이양을 적극 장려하고 국가관 상호 신뢰를 구축한다. (5) 각 소비자 단체나 소비자는 환경을 살리고 생명체의 공생이라는 관점에서 최선의 길이 유기농 제품임을 인식하고 소비하여 우리의 다음 세대에게서 빌려온 소중한 환경을 물려준다.

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Dissipation characteristics of mandipropamid and thiamethoxam for establishment of pre-harvest residue limits in lettuce (상추의 생산단계 잔류허용기준 설정을 위한 농약 Mandipropamid 및 Thiamethoxam의 잔류소실특성 연구)

  • Yang, Seung-Hyun;Lee, Jae-In;Choi, Hoon
    • Journal of Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.63 no.3
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    • pp.267-274
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    • 2020
  • The dissipation characteristics and kinetics of fungicide mandipropamid and insecticide thiamethoxam in lettuce under greenhouse conditions were investigated at three different lettuce-growing fields for estimating the pre-harvest residue limits (PHRLs). The analytical methods were fully validated for the quantitation of pesticide residues using High-Performance Liquid Chromatography-Photo Diode Array detector or Ultraviolet-Visible Detector and applied to real samples. The lettuces suitable for shipment were harvested during 10 days including pre-harvest interval after treatment at the recommended dose by safe-use guidelines. The initial mean residues in different fields were 6.68-17.87 and 4.96-8.31 mg/kg for mandipropamid and thiamethoxam, respectively, which decreased to 16-54 and 14-44% in 10 days. The clothianidin, a metabolite of thiamethoxam, was detected in <0.02 to 0.37 mg/kg. The dissipation of both pesticides followed first-order kinetics over a period of 10 days after application. Based on the residue data, the mean dissipation rate constant (λ) and biological half-lives (T1/2) were estimated to be -0.1060 and 6.5 days of mandipropamid and -0.1236 and 5.6 days of thiamethoxam. The PHRLs for lettuce on the 10th and 5th day before harvesting were calculated to be 63.24 and 43.56 mg/kg for mandipropamid, and 44.66 and 25.88 mg/kg for thiamethoxam, with -0.0746 and -0.1091 of the upper 95% confidence intervals of dissipation rate constant, respectively. This work would be useful as guidance for adjusting the shipment date and contribute to stabilizing the income of farmers in Korea.

A study on dermatologic diseases of workers exposed to cutting oil (절삭유 취급 근로자의 피부질환에 관한 연구)

  • Chun, Byung-Chul;Kim, Hee-Ok;Kim, Soon-Duck;Oh, Chil-Hwan;Yum, Yong-Tae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.29 no.4 s.55
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    • pp.785-799
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    • 1996
  • We investigated the 1,004 workers who worked in a automobile factory to study the epidemiologic characterists of dermatoses due to cutting oils. Among the workers, 667(66.4%) answered the questionaire. They are belong to 5 departments of the factory-the Engine-Work(258 workers), Gasoline engine Assembly(210), Diesel engine Assembly(96), Power train Work(86), Power train Assembly(17). We measured the oil mist concentration in air of the departments and examined the workers who had dermatologic symptoms. The results were follows; 1) Oil mist concentration ; Of all measured points(52),9 points(17.2%) exeeded $5mg/m^3$- the time-weighed PEL-and one department had a upper confidence limit(95%) higher than $5mg/m^3$. 2) Dermatologists examined 213 workers. 172 of them complained any skin symptoms at that time - itching(32.5%), papule(21.6%), scale(15.7%), vesicle(12.5%) in order. The abnormal skin site found by dermatologist were palm(29.3%), finger & nail(24.6%), forearm(16.2%), back of hand(8.4%) in order. 3) As the result of physical examination, we found that 160 workers had skin diseases. Contact dermatitis was the most common; 69 workers had contact dermatitis alone(43.1%), 11 had contact dermatitis with acne(6.9%), 10 had contact dermatitis with folliculitis(6.3%), 1 had contact dermatitis with acne & folliculitis, and 1 had contact dermatitis with abnormal pigmentation. Others were folliculitis(9 workers, 5.6%), acne(8, 5.0%), folliculitis & acne (2, 1.2%), keratosis(1, 0.6%), abnormal pigmentation (1, 0.6%), and non-specific hand eczema (47, 29.3%). 4) The prevalence of any skin diseases was 34.0 pet 100 in cutting oil users, and 13.3 per 100 in non- users. Especially, the prevalence of contact dermatitis was 23.0 per 100 in cutting oil users and 23.0 per 100 in non-users. 5) We tried patch test(standard serise, oil serise, organic solvents) on 49 patients to differentiate allergic contact dermatitis from irritant contact dermatitis and found 20 were positive. 6) In a multivariate analysis(independant=age, tenure, kinds of cutting oil), the risk of skin diseases was higher in the water-based cutting oil user and both oil user than non-user or neat oil user(odds ratio were 2.16 and 2.78, respectively). And the risk of contact dermatitis was much higher at the same groups(odds ratio were 5.16 and 6.82, respectively).

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