• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2020.01a
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• pp.117-120
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• 2020

본 논문은 인공지능 메이커 교육과 관련한 요소를 논문 네트워크 키워드 분석과 다양한 빅데이터를 종합하여 핵심용어를 선정 후 인공지능 메이커 교육을 시스템 다이내믹스의 Vensim프로그램으로 인과지도(Casual Loop Diagramming)를 구조분석(모델의 구조)하여 예측 결과를 토대로 향후 미래 상황 추출 및 정책 결정 연구에 영향을 기여한다. 연구 결과 인공지능 교육 정책은 추후 인공지능 교육과 메이커 교육을 융합한 교육 관련 산업이 증대할 것으로 예측되며 교육 경쟁력 향상과 창의적 인재 양성, OTT를 이용한 인공지능 교육 콘텐츠 향상으로 학습에 활용성이 증대하게 된다. 또한 인공지능 교육 정책은 프로그래밍 교육으로 연결되어 성장기 학습자들의 사고력과 정서 발달에 도움 되며 다양한 교재 및 기기 등장으로 인한 학습에 다양성 역시 증가할 것으로 예측된다. 학교 차원에서는 교수·연구 지원 활동이 증가하여 수업 전문성을 가진 교사가 늘어나 학교 교육의 질은 확대되고 학부모는 인공지능 교육 정책에 긍정적으로 된다. 시스템 다이내믹스는 구조가 형태를 결정짓는다는 세계관에 기초하여 피드백 루프와 동태적 형태 유형을 파악하며 다양한 가능성이 존재하게 된다. 이는 추후 다양한 연구를 통해 인공지능 교육 정책 인과지도의 확대로 연결될 수 있음을 암시하며 본 논문을 통해 인공지능 교육 연구 확산에 시발점이 되었으면 한다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.75-87
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to utilize the system dynamics to carry out a medium and long-term forecasting analysis of the bunker price. In order to secure accurate bunker price forecast, a quantitative analysis was established based on the casual loop diagram between various variables that affects bunker price. Based on various configuration variables such as crude oil price which affects crude oil consumption & production, GDP and exchange rate which influences economic changes and freight rate which is decided by supply and demand in shipping and logistic market were used in accordance with System Dynamics to forecast bunker price and then objectivity was verified through MAPEs. Based on the result of this study, bunker price is expected to rise until 2029 compared to 2016 but it will not be near the surge sighted in 2012. This study holds value in two ways. First, it supports shipping companies to efficiently manage its fleet, offering comprehensive bunker price risk management by presenting structural relationship between various variables affecting bunker price. Second, rational result derived from bunker price forecast by utilizing dynamic casual loop between various variables.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.53-63
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• 2018

Since warfare surroundings getting complex and diverse in the future, it is not simple to make appropriate structures and organizations for military groups along the phenomenon. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology of verification for army staff's structure and organization by units in the future using System Dynamics(SD). The procedure of using SD for the verification is a calculation of database(DB), the design of causal loop diagram, and the simulation and analysis. First, DB such as individuals' workload and time is calculated through observation after a real group of staff. Second, the causal loop diagram is considered by a flow of task, and it is modeled. Third, the DB is entered into the model and simulated for analyzing of appropriacy. This study used Powersim program for designing the SD model. One of the weaknesses of the methodology of this study is possibilities of a different result by the DB by observers and perspectives by analysts. As supplementation for the weakness, this study includes research analysis and surveys for the total analysis. The meaning of this study is that it suggests a methodology of warfighting experimentation to analyze structure and organization of military groups with quantifying suitability in the scientific method.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.77-87
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• 2008

Decision-making of the site for the medium and low-level radioactive-waste disposal facilities in 2005 can be estimated as a success. But the limits exposed during the process still remain as problems to be solved. Analyzing the causes of success and failure of the policy and their correlation was expected to provide an effective guideline on future policies. The analysis shows that the transparency of policy makers, the level of community supports and the public relations are decisive factors. System dynamics, a synthetic analyzing tool, is used as a methodology for policy analysis. The result of the system dynamics analysis shows that public confidence is to be the key role to for and against logics when transparency of stakeholder, subsidy and public information are set as adjustable parameters. Public confidence takes a role of leverage that can convert tendency of conclusion by the opinion which influenced by selected parameters.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.67-75
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• 2021

Despite the increase in sales of imported vehicles in Korea, research on the sales forecast of parts logistics centers is very limited. This study aims to perform a sales prediction on bestselling goods in the automobile part logistics center. System dynamics was adopted as a methodology for the prediction method, which considered causal relationship of variables that affected the dynamic characteristics and feedback loops. The analysis results showed that the consumable sales amount of oil increased over time. As a result of conducting the MAPE, the model was assessed to be a reasonable predictive model of 31.3%. In addition, the sales of battery products increased from every October in both of actual and predicted data followed by the peak sales in December and then decrease from next February. This study has academic implications that it secured actual data of specific imported automobile part logistics center, which has not done before in previous studies and quantitatively analyzed the prediction of the quantity of released goods of future sales through system dynamics.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 1999.10c
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• pp.268-270
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• 1999

국내외를 불문하고 네트워크 환경의 대중화로 인한 그 수요의 증가로 네트워크 기술 자체에 대한 이해는 물론이며, 네트워크에 연결된 수 많은 장비들에 대한 트래픽 문제의 해결과 효율적인 관리가 필수적이다. 중앙집중형 NMS는 네트워크에 연결된 수 많은 NE들을 구성하고 제어하기 위하여 대부분의 네트워크에서 SNMP를 이용하고 있으나, Manager와 Agent 들의 계속적인 Polling과 정보교환은 오히려 네트웍 트래픽을 증가시키는 역할을 하고 있다. 그리하여 최근에 SNMPv2를 이용한 분산형 망관리 시스템이 도입되고 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 망 관리 시스템의 내부적 부하인 SNMP의 네트워크 트래픽을 중앙집중형과 분산형 망관리 시스템으로 구분하여 시스템 다이내믹스 모델링 기법과 시스템 다이내믹스 시뮬레이션 툴인 STELLA를 이용하여 네트워크 트래픽 패턴을 분석하여, 망 관리 시스템 구축시 적절한 요소의 가감을 통해 네트워크 트래픽을 줄이고, 효율적인 망관리 시스템을 구축하는데 그 목적이 있다.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.55-68
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• 2003

1960년대 이후 서양에서 발전된 시스템 사고는 동양 사고와는 상이한 사고 체계로 받아들여져 왔다. 피드백 시스템에 초점을 두는 시스템 사고는 오히려 전통적인 동양 사고와 유사하다는 점을 본 논문을 통하여 밝히고자 하였다. 특히 본 논문에서는 노자의 도덕경에서 자신의 행위가 자신에게로 되돌아온다는 순환적 사구 즉 피드백 사고를 발견할 수 있다는 점을 지적하였다. 아울러 동양의 전통적 관점이라고 할 수 있는 음양오행이론 역시 피드백 사고로 해석될 수 있다는 점을 밝히고자 하였다. 본 논문은 이러한 사상적 유사성이야말로 시스템 사고를 동양 사회에 도입할 수 있는 유연한 토대를 제공한다는 점을 지적하였다. 동양사고와 시스템 사고의 유사성이야말로 시스템 사고를 동양 사회에 적용하고 확산시키는데 있어서 지렛대의 역할을 수행할 것이다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.131-140
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• 2013

Econometric forecast models based on past time-series data have been applied to a wide variety of applications due to their advantages in short-term point estimating. These models are particularly used in predicting the impact of governmental research and development (R&D) programs because program managers should assert their feasibility due to R&D program's huge amount of budget. The construction governmental R&D programs, however, separately make an investment by dividing total budget into five sub-business area. It make R&D program managers difficult to understand how R&D programs affect the whole system including economy because they are restricted with regard to many dependent and dynamic variables. In this regard, system dynamics (SD) model provides an analytic solution for complex, nonlinear, and dynamic systems such as the impacts of R&D programs by focusing on interactions among variables and understanding their structures. This research, therefore, developed SD model to capture the different impacts of five construction R&D sub-business by considering different characteristics of sub-business area. To overcome the SD's disadvantages in point estimating, this research also proposed the method for constructing quantitative forecasting model using qualitative data. Understanding the different characteristics of each construction R&D sub-business can support R&D program managers to demonstrate their feasibility of capital investment.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.115-140
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• 2007

Changes in material use, energy use and emissions profiles of steel industry are the result of complex interrelationships among a multitude of technological and economic drivers. To better understand and guide such changes requires that attention is paid to the time-varying consequences that technology and economic influences have on an industry's choice of inputs and its associated outputs. We briefly review the range of policy issues in our paper and assess the impact that climate-change policies may have on energy use and carbon emissions in Korea steel industry. We then present the models of Korea steel industry's energy and product flow regarding environmental regulations by using system dynamics simulation methodology(SD). Time series data and engineering information are combined to endogenously specify changes in technologies, fuel mix, and production processes within dynamic simulation model. Through a various scenario, ramifications that the convention of climate change would to steel industry is analyzed, and based on the study results, strategies against environment changes is contemplated in various perspectives to contribute to minimize the risks concerning the uncertain future and to be conducive to Korea steel industry's sustainable development.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.25-45
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• 2009

The concept of social capital has recently been highlighted in most fields of social science because social capital is believed to be an alternative of market and government failures. However, social capital is of high ambiguity that hinders in conceptualizing and modeling that can differs from the premises, such as whether social capital lies in individual actors or collective substances, or whether social networks are functioning by rationality or emotion. This study therefore tries to examine the concept of social capital and suggest 6 types of it following by the anthropologic concept of 'reciprocity' as well as to provide fruitful discussions on the introduction of social capital variables to System Dynamics modeling of sustainable development. Conclusively, the introduction of social capital to the integration models of environment-economy-society should be based on strongly understanding the social networks, individual identities, and local particularities of the relevant localities in order to enhance the structural validity and applicability of sustainable development models in System Dynamics.