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http://dx.doi.org/10.14400/JDC.2021.19.1.067

Research on Prediction of Consumable Release of Imported Automobile Utilizing System Dynamics - Focusing on Logistics Center of A Imported Automobile Part  

Park, Byooung-Jun (Graduate School of Logistics, Incheon National University)
Yeo, Gi-Tae (Graduate School of Logistics, Incheon National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Digital Convergence / v.19, no.1, 2021 , pp. 67-75 More about this Journal
Abstract
Despite the increase in sales of imported vehicles in Korea, research on the sales forecast of parts logistics centers is very limited. This study aims to perform a sales prediction on bestselling goods in the automobile part logistics center. System dynamics was adopted as a methodology for the prediction method, which considered causal relationship of variables that affected the dynamic characteristics and feedback loops. The analysis results showed that the consumable sales amount of oil increased over time. As a result of conducting the MAPE, the model was assessed to be a reasonable predictive model of 31.3%. In addition, the sales of battery products increased from every October in both of actual and predicted data followed by the peak sales in December and then decrease from next February. This study has academic implications that it secured actual data of specific imported automobile part logistics center, which has not done before in previous studies and quantitatively analyzed the prediction of the quantity of released goods of future sales through system dynamics.
Keywords
Imported Automobile; Parts Logistics Center; Volume of Goods; Sales Forecast; System Dynamics;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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