• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2002년도 하계학술대회발표논문집
• /
• pp.51-66
• /
• 2002

대부분의 기업들이 시장에서의 경쟁우위를 확보하기 위하여 끊임없이 시장을 분석하고 이에 기초한 시장전략을 수립하고 있다. 그러나 기업의 전략적 의사결정은 종종 잘못된 시장분석으로 인하여 전혀 예상하지 못한 결과를 가져오는 경우가 있다. 이는 전체적인 시각에서 시장의 구조적 특성을 분석하기보다는 현상을 조사하는 수준에 머물거나 현재의 상황만을 고려할 뿐 시간의 흐름에 따른 동태적 변화와 지연된 피드백의 효과를 반영하지 못한 채 단기적 관점에서 시장 전략을 수립하는데 그 원인이 있다고 볼 수 있다. 이에 따라 본 논문은 자치단체 서버 시장을 대상으로 모 기업이 시장 전략을 수립하는 과정을 사례로 시스템 사고와 시뮬레이션 모델이 이러한 문제를 해결하는데 얼마나 효과적인지 설명하고자 한다.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제5권2호
• /
• pp.89-123
• /
• 2004

Using materials recovered from the waste stream instead of virgin resources as a raw material in manufacturing has great environmental and economic benefits. However, there is lack of public interest in needs for integrated waste management and its relevant facilities, because of NIMBY syndrome, This article has proposed a system dynamics model for the study of the potential and systemic consequences of resource circulation management system(RCMS) policy for a Sudokwon landfill site in Korea. The results of the study indicate that the effects of RCMS are seen continuously to increase in term with both the community welfare level and the resource and energy level. Moreover the effects of RCMS appear sharply in the first half of the simulation period.

• 디지털융복합연구
• /
• 제16권5호
• /
• pp.137-143
• /
• 2018

우리나라의 항공여객 운송실적은 지속적으로 성장하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 항공여객 운송 실적의 성장추이를 확인하기 위해 시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 항공여객 수요예측 모델을 제안하였다. 항공여객 수요예측은 항공여객 운송수요를 종속변수로 하고 국제항공유가, GDP 및 환율을 외생변수로 하여 시뮬레이션 하였다. 모델의 정확도는 MAPE와 $R^2$를 이용하여 검증하였고 검증 결과 제안된 예측모델은 정확한 예측모델로 확인되었다. 수요예측 결과 국적 항공사의 항공여객 처리실적은 앞으로도 지속적으로 성장하며, 특히 저비용항공사의 수송 분담률이 크게 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 향후 한국에 진출해 있는 외국계 항공사들의 내국인 처리 실적 및 국적항공사들의 Alliance 체결에 따른 실적 등을 추가하여 보다 정확한 항공여객 수요예측 모델을 제안하고자 한다.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.209-234
• /
• 2007

Recently, balanced scorecard is widely used in the public sector as well as in the private sector. Balanced scorecard system of a particular hospital is a very useful tool in the sense that it shows various measures for the management including the traditional financial measures. However, since it does not show the impact of action items, managers have to analyze his potential decisions. On the other hand, a system dynamics model for the management of a hospital can be used to predict future management status. In this paper, a balanced scorecard system with a system dynamics model is developed for a small sized hospital, and the feasibility and applicability of the system have been tested. It turns out the combination of the balanced scorecard and system dynamics technique can be comprised each other. The balanced scorecard system can take advantage of the data forecasted by the system dynamics model including the implementation of action items taken today. On the other hand, the key performance indicators and action items from the balanced scorecard system provide guidelines the scope and direction of the system dynamics model. The additional efforts of developing a system dynamics model are well compensated by the additional colorful functionalities of the system. This paper also covers the future research areas for the combined system to be more effectively developed.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제7권2호
• /
• pp.35-56
• /
• 2006

Korea is implementing strong regulatory derives such as Feed in Tariff to provide incentives for renewable energy developers. But if the government is planning to increase the renewable capacity with only "Price policy" not considering the investors behavior in the competitive electricity market, the policy would be failed. It is necessary system thinking and simulation model analysis to decide government's incentive goal. This study is focusing on the assesment of the competitiveness of renewable energy with the current Feed in Tariff incentives compared to the traditional energy source, specially coal and gas. The simulation results show that the market penetration of renewable energy with the current Feed-in-Tariff level is about 60-70% of the government goal under condition that the solar energy and fuel cell are assumed to provide the whole capacity set in the governmental goal. If the contribution from solar and fuel cell is lower than planned, the total penetration of renewable energy will be dropped more. Notably, Wind power turned out to be proved only 10% of government goal because of its low availability.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.155-170
• /
• 2008

The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for management of glucose metabolism disorders that demonstrated dynamic relationships between insulin and plasma glucose levels over the time. The model was developed to 1) represent the physiology of glucose metabolism for an normal adult subject, 2) to draw causal loop diagram that demonstrate feedback systems of glucose regulation in normal condition and pathologic condition of the type 2 diabetes, 3) to develop an interactive computer simulation model for management of glucose metabolism disorders. The simulation results showed the plasma glucose level for normal persons varied from 75 to 140 which was consistent with clinical findings. As an example for patients we selected a case which varied from 110 to 310. Two types of interventions were chosen to review the model; meal control and insulin administration. The simulation results for those cases also matched well with clinical findings. The developed model can be used as an effective educational tool for patients to develop healthy lifestyle choices. The results also provide a blueprint for health providers to maintain normal blood glucose levels in diabetes patients.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2003년도 하계학술대회발표논문집
• /
• pp.1-24
• /
• 2003

The purpose of this paper was developing a development density control model for urban growth management, using system dynamics modeling. The density control model was developed to see how urban growth, transition, and decay occur depending on the interaction among population, houses, industry structure, land and urban infrastructure such as road, water supply, and sewage treatment facilities. Suggesting adequate level of development density control using the model was another purpose of this paper. The model was applied to An'yang city to estimate the maximum number of population, industry structures, houses, and cars that can be adequately sustained with the current An'yang city's infrastructur capacity. The computer simulation results shows that the city is overpopulated by some 90,000 people. To reduce the population to the adequate level that the current urban infrastructure can sustain, the current city regulation on floor area ratio are needed to be strengthened at least 20 to 35%.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제5권2호
• /
• pp.125-147
• /
• 2004

System dynamics model has been developed and computer simulation has been peformed for the evaluation of R&D policy. One of the main results of the basecase scenario is as follows. After simulation of nuclear R&D resource allocation strategies, we discovered that their net benefit value was maximum at 130% nuclear R&D budget case. And after simulation of human resource management strategies and policy research program strategies, we confirmed that it is beneficial to allocate budgets in the early phase for human resources management program and research program for the policy.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 발표논문집
• /
• pp.49-69
• /
• 2006

본 논문은 선행연구인 정회성${\cdot}$전대욱 (2005)의 모형을 중심으로 선행연구에서 미처 다루지 못한 체계 변화 및 모형 확장 등에 대해 다루고 있다. 선행연구에서는 우리나라의 참게 복원사업에 대한 개체수 동태모형(population dynamics)과 자원 경제학적 이론모형을 근거로 생태${\cdot}$경제 통합시스템에 대한 동태모형을 도출하고 이를 통해 실증분석을 수행하였는데, 본 논문에서는 이 통합 모형에 있어서 밀도 제약(density restriction)과 공식 행위(cannibalistic behavior), 주민참여에 의한 환경개선 등 일련의 가정들에 대한 확장을 통해 보다 일반화된 통합체계 및 시스템 다이내믹스 분석을 제시한다. 이와 같은 모형 확장 및 파라메터의 내생화 등은 관련 피드백 루프들의 변형과 추가 등을 의미하며, 이와 같은 변화를 포함한 확장 모델을 제시하고 분석함으로써 참게 복원사업에 대한 보다 폭넓은 논의를 제시하고자 한다.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제10권1호
• /
• pp.61-76
• /
• 2009

We try to use system dynamics to forecast the demand/supply and price, also transportation fare for iron ore. Iron ore is very important mineral resource for industrial production. The structure for this system dynamics shows non-linear pattern and we anticipated the system dynamic method will catch this non-linear reality better than the regression analysis. Our model is calibrated and tested for the past 6 year monthly data (2003-2008) and used for next 6 year monthly data(2008-2013) forecasting. The test results show that our system dynamics approach fits the real data with higher accuracy than the regression one. And we have run the simulations for scenarios made by possible future changes in demand or supply and fare related variables. This simulations imply some meaningful price and fare change patterns.