• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시계열 특성

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Optimization of PRISM parameters using the SCEM-UA algorithm for gridded daily time series precipitation (시계열 강수량 공간화를 위한 SCEM-UA 기반의 PRISM 매개변수 최적화)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Park, Moonhyung;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.10
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    • pp.903-915
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    • 2020
  • Long-term high-resolution hydro-meteorological data has been recognized as an essential element in establishing the water resources plan. The increasing demand for spatial precipitation in various areas such as climate, hydrology, geography, ecology, and environment is apparent. However, potential limitations of the existing area-weighted and numerical interpolation methods for interpolating precipitation in high altitude areas remains less explored. The proposed PRISM (Precipitation-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) model can produce gridded precipitation that can adequately consider topographic characteristics (e.g., slope and altitude), which are not substantially included in the existing interpolation techniques. In this study, the PRISM model was optimized with SCEM-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis-University of Arizona) to produce daily gridded precipitation. As a result, the minimum impact radius was calculated 9.10 km and the maximum 34.99 km. The altitude of coastal weighted was 681.03 m, the minimum and maximum distances from coastal were 9.85 km and 38.05 km. The distance weighting factor was calculated to be about 0.87, confirming that the PRISM result was very sensitive to distance. The results showed that the proposed PRISM model could reproduce the observed statistical properties reasonably well.

A Study on the Statistical Continuity of Electrical Construction Cost Index Applied Chain Method (전기공사비지수의 산정방식 변경에 따른 통계연속성 실증분석 연구)

  • Park, Houng-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.46-53
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    • 2015
  • Electrical construction cost index is composed of the cost of albor and material. The producer price index is used to the cost of material. The Bank of Korea restructured the formation method and the basic period of the producer price index in 2013. Because fixed-weighted method can't faithfully reflect industrial structure changes. The weighted value and price index of fixed-weighted method is fixed on the basicp eriod. Electrical construction cost index is changed from fixed-weighted method to chain-weighted method in september 2014, because of these on the need. But the change of organization in formation method changes the weighted value. So there is the need of analysis about the statistical continuity of electrical construction cost index. This study is focused on the time series analysis between fixed-weighted and chain-weighted electrical construction cost index. We uses unit root test, cointegration test, regression analysis of long and short term equation, fitness for the estimation of static forecast as time series analysis. We verify that chain-weighted electrical construction cost index can be replaced to fixed-weighted construction cost index accounting analyses result. So users of it recognize that chain-weighted electrical construction cost index has statistical continuity.

The Spectral Characteristics of Climatological Variables over the Asian Dust Source Regions and its Association with Particle Concentrations in Busan (황사 발원지 기후자료의 시계열 특성과 부산지역 먼지 농도의 연관성 분석)

  • Son, Hye-Young;Kim, Cheol-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.734-743
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    • 2009
  • In order to examine how climatological condition can influence on urban scale particulate air pollutants, single and cross spectrum analysis have been performed to daily mean concentrations of particulate matters ($PM_{10}$) in Busan together with the climatological variables over the Asian dust source regions. Single power spectrum analysis of $PM_{10}$ concentrations in Busan shows that, aside from the typical and well-known periodicities, 3-4 year of peak periodicity of power spectrum density was identified. In cross spectrum analysis, this 3-4 year periodicity is found to have a strong positive correlation with the wind speed and pressure, and negative with the temperature and relative humidity, which is rather consistent with both characteristics of air mass during the Asian dust event whose periodicities have been recorded inter-annually over the Korean urban cities. Over the Asian dust source regions, $PM_{10}$ vs. precipitation shows no significant periodicity from the time series of precipitation data, but the periodicity of EDI (Effective Drought Index) shows some interannual variabilities ranging from 2 to 4 years over the various source regions, suggesting that, rather than precipitation itself, the EDI could be more closely associated with the occurrence frequency of Asian dust and interannual variability of urban particle concentrations in Korean cities.

Selecting a mother wavelet for univariate wavelet analysis of time series data (시계열 자료의 단변량 웨이블릿 분석을 위한 모 웨이블릿의 선정)

  • Lee, Hyunwook;Lee, Jinwook;Yoo, Chulsang
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.8
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    • pp.575-587
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    • 2019
  • This study evaluated the effect of a mother wavelet in the wavelet analysis of various times series made by combining white noise and/or sine function. The result derived is also applied to short-memory arctic oscillation index (AOI) and long-memory southern oscillation index (SOI). This study, different from previous studies evaluating one or two mother wavelets, considers a total of four generally-used mother wavelets, Bump, Morlet, Paul, and Mexican Hat. Summarizing the results is as follows. First, the Bump mother wavelet is found to have some limitations to represent the unstationary behavior of the periodic components. Its application results are more or less the same as the spectrum analysis. On the other hand, the Morlet and Paul mother wavelets are found to represent the non-stationary behavior of the periodic components. Finally, the Mexican Hat mother wavelet is found to be too complicated to interpret. Additionally, it is also found that the application result of Paul mother wavelet can be inconsistent for some specific time series. As a result, the Morlet mother wavelet seems to be the most stable one for general applications, which is also assured by the recent trend that the Morlet mother wavelet is most frequently used in the wavelet analysis research.

The Prediction of Durability Performance for Chloride Ingress in Fly Ash Concrete by Artificial Neural Network Algorithm (인공 신경망 알고리즘을 활용한 플라이애시 콘크리트의 염해 내구성능 예측)

  • Kwon, Seung-Jun;Yoon, Yong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2022
  • In this study, RCPTs (Rapid Chloride Penetration Test) were performed for fly ash concrete with curing age of 4 ~ 6 years. The concrete mixtures were prepared with 3 levels of water to binder ratio (0.37, 0.42, and 0.47) and 2 levels of substitution ratio of fly ash (0 and 30%), and the improved passed charges of chloride ion behavior were quantitatively analyzed. Additionally, the results were trained through the univariate time series models consisted of GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) algorithm and those from the models were evaluated. As the result of the RCPT, fly ash concrete showed the reduced passed charges with period and an more improved resistance to chloride penetration than OPC concrete. At the final evaluation period (6 years), fly ash concrete showed 'Very low' grade in all W/B (water to binder) ratio, however OPC concrete showed 'Moderate' grade in the condition with the highest W/B ratio (0.47). The adopted algorithm of GRU for this study can analyze time series data and has the advantage like operation efficiency. The deep learning model with 4 hidden layers was designed, and it provided a reasonable prediction results of passed charge. The deep learning model from this study has a limitation of single consideration of a univariate time series characteristic, but it is in the developing process of providing various characteristics of concrete like strength and diffusion coefficient through additional studies.

Methodology for Developing a Predictive Model for Highway Traffic Information Using LSTM (LSTM을 활용한 고속도로 교통정보 예측 모델 개발 방법론)

  • Yoseph Lee;Hyoung-suk Jin;Yejin Kim;Sung-ho Park;Ilsoo Yun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2023
  • With the recent developments in big data and deep learning, a variety of traffic information is collected widely and used for traffic operations. In particular, long short-term memory (LSTM) is used in the field of traffic information prediction with time series characteristics. Since trends, seasons, and cycles differ due to the nature of time series data input for an LSTM, a trial-and-error method based on characteristics of the data is essential for prediction models based on time series data in order to find hyperparameters. If a methodology is established to find suitable hyperparameters, it is possible to reduce the time spent in constructing high-accuracy models. Therefore, in this study, a traffic information prediction model is developed based on highway vehicle detection system (VDS) data and LSTM, and an impact assessment is conducted through changes in the LSTM evaluation indicators for each hyperparameter. In addition, a methodology for finding hyperparameters suitable for predicting highway traffic information in the transportation field is presented.

Analysis of storm effects on floods using runoff coefficient (유출계수를 이용한 호우가 홍수에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Nam Won;Shin, Mun-Ju
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.265-265
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    • 2016
  • 호우가 홍수에 미치는 영향의 분석은 수문현상을 이해하고 수공구조물을 설계하는데 반드시 필요한 절차이다. 호우가 홍수에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위해서 독립된 소유역부터 비독립된 대유역까지 홍수량을 계산하고 그 상관성을 이해해야 하지만 상류쪽의 소유역의 경우 관측자료의 부재가 빈번하여 이러한 전반적인 분석이 쉽지 않다. 그리고 소유역과 대유역의 홍수특성을 연관지어 분석하기 위해서는 비교가능한 홍수특성을 추출해야 하며 이러한 일관된 잣대를 사용한 홍수분석은 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 소유역의 자료부재를 보완하기 위해 자료공간확장 방법을 제안하고 이를 통하여 안동댐 유역내 총 50개 지점의 홍수 시계열자료를 생성하였다. 자료공간확장 방법으로써, 안동댐유역의 1989년부터 2009년까지의 자료의 질이 좋은 20개의 사상을 추출하였고 안동댐유역 내에 위치한 안동댐, 도산, 소천의 수위관측지점의 관측유량자료에 대해 분포형 모형인 GRM 모형의 매개변수를 시행착오법으로 동시에 보정하여 한 개셋의 최적 매개변수를 추정하였다. 이때 모의결과를 평가하기 위하여 Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) 계수를 사용하였으며 20갯 사상의 세군데 관측수위지점에 대해서 모의결과가 전반적으로 0.5 NS 계수 이상으로써 만족할 만한 결과를 얻었다. 이 추정된 매개변수는 47개의 추가적인 관심지점의 유출모의에 사용되었으며 이렇게 모의된 유출시계열 자료는 관측시계열 자료로 가정하여 사용하였다. 이렇게 공간확장되어 생성된 시계열 자료는 이동평균방법을 사용하여 홍수강도-지속시간 곡선으로 변환되었고 50개 유역의 평균강우량 시계열 자료 또한 같은 밥법을 사용하여 강우강도-지속시간 곡선으로 변환되었다. 50개 유역의 비교가능한 일관된 홍수특성을 추출하기 위해 비유량법의 유출계수를 계산하였다. 유출계수를 계산하기 위해 유역별 도달시간을 계산하였으며 이 도달시간에 해당하는 강우강도를 추출하였다. 그리고 유역별 첨두 홍수강도를 유역별 도달시간에 해당하는 강우강도로 나눠줌으로써 유역별 유출계수를 계산하였고 이 유출계수를 유역면적에 대해 도시함으로써 그 경향을 조사하였다. 조사 결과 유역면적이 $100km^2$ 이상으로써 상류에서 하류방향으로 유역이 중첩되면서 증가하는 비독립적인 유역들의 경우 유역면적이 증가함에 따라 유출계수가 작아지거나 커지는 어떠한 경향을 보였다. 하지만 유역면적이 $100km^2$ 이하로써 독립적인 소유역의 경우 유역면적이 증가함에 따라 유출계수는 무작위로 분포되었다. 이것은 비독립적인 유역의 경우에는 호우가 홍수에 어떠한 일관된 영향을 미치나 각각 독립된 소유역의 경우에는 일관된 영향을 미치지 않음으로써 지역화방법에 의한 독립된 인근 미계측유역의 유출추정은 그 신뢰성이 높지 않다는 것을 의미한다.

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Theoretical Development and Experimental Investigation of Underwater Acoustic Communication for Multiple Receiving Locations Based on the Adaptive Time-Reversal Processing (다중수신 수중음향통신을 위한 적응 시계열반전처리 기법의 이론연구와 실험적 검증)

  • Shin Kee-Cheol;Byun Yang-Hun;Kim Jea-Soo
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.239-245
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    • 2006
  • Time-reversal processing (TRP) has been shown as an effective way to focus in both time and space. The temporal focusing properties have been used extensively in underwater acoustics communications. Recently. adaptive time-reversal processing (ATRP) was applied to the simultaneous multiple focusing in an ocean waveguide. In this study. multiple focusing with ATRP is extended to the underwater acoustic communication algorithm for multiple receiving locations. The developed algorithm is applied to the underwater acoustic communication to show, via simulation and real data, that the simultaneous self-equalization at multiple receiving locations is achieved.

Application to Evaluation of Hydrologic Time Series Forecasting for Long-Term Runoff Simulation (장기유출모의를 위한 수문시계열 예측모형의 적용성 평가)

  • Yoon, Sun-Kwon;Ahn, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Jong-Suk;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.10
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    • pp.809-824
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    • 2009
  • Hydrological system forecasting, which is the short term runoff historical data during the limited period in dam site, is a conditional precedent of hydrological persistence by stochastic analysis. We have forecasted the monthly hydrological system from Andong dam basin data that is the rainfall, evaporation, and runoff, using the seasonal ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model. Also we have conducted long term runoff simulations through the forecasted results of TANK model and ARIMA+TANK model. The results of analysis have been concurred to the observation data, and it has been considered for application to possibility on the stochastic model for dam inflow forecasting. Thus, the method presented in this study suggests a help to water resource mid- and long-term strategy establishment to application for runoff simulations through the forecasting variables of hydrological time series on the relatively short holding runoff data in an object basins.

Long-Range Dependence and 1/f Noise in a Wide Area Network Traffic (광역 네트워크 트래픽의 장거리 상관관계와 1/f 노이즈)

  • Lee, Chang-Yong
    • Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we examine a long-range dependence in an active measurement of a network traffic which has been a well known characteristic from analyses of a passive network traffic measurement. To this end, we utilize RTT(Round Trip Time), which is a typical active measurement measured by PingER project, and perform a relevant analysis to a time series of both RTT and its volatilities. The RTT time series exhibits a long-range dependence or a 1/f noise. The volatilities, defined as a higher-order variation, follow a log-normal distribution. Furthermore, volatilities show a long-range dependence in relatively short time intervals, and a long-range dependence and/or 1/f noise in long time intervals. From this study, we find that the long-range dependence is a characteristic of not only a passive traffic measurement but also an active measurement of network traffic such as RTT. From these findings, we can infer that the long-range dependence is a characteristic of network traffic independent of a type of measurements. In particular, an active measurement exhibits a 1/f noise which cannot be usually found in a passive measurement.