• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시계열 모델링

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Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of a Towing Rope using Multiple Finite Element Method (다물체 요소이론을 이용한 예인줄 동역학의 모델링 및 시뮬레이션)

  • Yoon, Hyeon-Kyu;Lee, Hong-Seok;Park, Jong-Kyu;Kim, Yeon-Gyu
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.339-347
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    • 2012
  • After towing rope connecting a barge to a tug was subdivided into multiple finite elements, then those dynamic models was established using Newton's second law and considering the external force and moment such as tension, drag, Coriolis force, gravity, buoyancy, and impact due to free surface acting on each element. While the previous research on the model of towing rope considered only translation, five-degree-of-freedom equations of motion except roll based on the body-fixed frame were established in this paper. All elements are connected by a spring and a damper, and the stiffness of the spring was set as the equivalent value of the real rope. In order to confirm the established multiple finite element model, various scenarios such as freely falling of towing rope in the air and above the free surface, accelerating of a tug which tows a barge connected by towing rope, and sinusoidal moving of a tug were set up and simulated. As the results, the trajectories of the tug, the barge, and the towing rope showed good tendencies to the ones of real expected situations.

Forecasting Economic Impacts of Construction R&D Investment: A Quantitative System Dynamics Forecast Model Using Qualitative Data (건설 분야 정부 R&D 투자의 사업별 경제적 파급효과 분석 - 정성적 자료 기반의 시스템다이내믹스 예측모형 개발 -)

  • Hwang, Sungjoo;Park, Moonseo;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Jang, Youjin;Moon, Myung-Gi;Moon, Yeji
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.131-140
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    • 2013
  • Econometric forecast models based on past time-series data have been applied to a wide variety of applications due to their advantages in short-term point estimating. These models are particularly used in predicting the impact of governmental research and development (R&D) programs because program managers should assert their feasibility due to R&D program's huge amount of budget. The construction governmental R&D programs, however, separately make an investment by dividing total budget into five sub-business area. It make R&D program managers difficult to understand how R&D programs affect the whole system including economy because they are restricted with regard to many dependent and dynamic variables. In this regard, system dynamics (SD) model provides an analytic solution for complex, nonlinear, and dynamic systems such as the impacts of R&D programs by focusing on interactions among variables and understanding their structures. This research, therefore, developed SD model to capture the different impacts of five construction R&D sub-business by considering different characteristics of sub-business area. To overcome the SD's disadvantages in point estimating, this research also proposed the method for constructing quantitative forecasting model using qualitative data. Understanding the different characteristics of each construction R&D sub-business can support R&D program managers to demonstrate their feasibility of capital investment.

Text Mining Driven Content Analysis of Ebola on News Media and Scientific Publications (텍스트 마이닝을 이용한 매체별 에볼라 주제 분석 - 바이오 분야 연구논문과 뉴스 텍스트 데이터를 이용하여 -)

  • An, Juyoung;Ahn, Kyubin;Song, Min
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.289-307
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    • 2016
  • Infectious diseases such as Ebola virus disease become a social issue and draw public attention to be a major topic on news or research. As a result, there have been a lot of studies on infectious diseases using text-mining techniques. However, there is no research on content analysis of two media channels that have distinct characteristics. Accordingly, in this study, we conduct topic analysis between news (representing a social perspective) and academic research paper (representing perspectives of bio-professionals). As text-mining techniques, topic modeling is applied to extract various topics according to the materials, and the word co-occurrence map based on selected bio entities is used to compare the perspectives of the materials specifically. For network analysis, topic map is built by using Gephi. Aforementioned approaches uncovered the difference of topics between two materials and the characteristics of the two materials. In terms of the word co-occurrence map, however, most of entities are shared in both materials. These results indicate that there are differences and commonalties between social and academic materials.

Water temperature prediction of Daecheong Reservoir by a process-guided deep learning model (역학적 모델과 딥러닝 모델을 융합한 대청호 수온 예측)

  • Kim, Sung Jin;Park, Hyungseok;Lee, Gun Ho;Chung, Se Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.88-88
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    • 2021
  • 최근 수자원과 수질관리 분야에 자료기반 머신러닝 모델과 딥러닝 모델의 활용이 급증하고 있다. 그러나 딥러닝 모델은 Blackbox 모델의 특성상 고전적인 질량, 운동량, 에너지 보존법칙을 고려하지 않고, 데이터에 내재된 패턴과 관계를 해석하기 때문에 물리적 법칙을 만족하지 않는 예측결과를 가져올 수 있다. 또한, 딥러닝 모델의 예측 성능은 학습데이터의 양과 변수 선정에 크게 영향을 받는 모델이기 때문에 양질의 데이터가 제공되지 않으면 모델의 bias와 variation이 클 수 있으며 정확도 높은 예측이 어렵다. 최근 이러한 자료기반 모델링 방법의 단점을 보완하기 위해 프로세스 기반 수치모델과 딥러닝 모델을 결합하여 두 모델링 방법의 장점을 활용하는 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다(Read et al., 2019). Process-Guided Deep Learning (PGDL) 방법은 물리적 법칙을 반영하여 딥러닝 모델을 훈련시킴으로써 순수한 딥러닝 모델의 물리적 법칙 결여성 문제를 해결할 수 있는 대안으로 활용되고 있다. PGDL 모델은 딥러닝 모델에 물리적인 법칙을 해석할 수 있는 추가변수를 도입하며, 딥러닝 모델의 매개변수 최적화 과정에서 Cost 함수에 물리적 법칙을 위반하는 경우 Penalty를 추가하는 알고리즘을 도입하여 물리적 보존법칙을 만족하도록 모델을 훈련시킨다. 본 연구의 목적은 대청호의 수심별 수온을 예측하기 위해 역학적 모델과 딥러닝 모델을 융합한 PGDL 모델을 개발하고 적용성을 평가하는데 있다. 역학적 모델은 2차원 횡방향 평균 수리·수질 모델인 CE-QUAL-W2을 사용하였으며, 대청호를 대상으로 2017년부터 2018년까지 총 2년간 수온과 에너지 수지를 모의하였다. 기상(기온, 이슬점온도, 풍향, 풍속, 운량), 수문(저수위, 유입·유출 유량), 수온자료를 수집하여 CE-QUAL-W2 모델을 구축하고 보정하였으며, 모델은 저수위 변화, 수온의 수심별 시계열 변동 특성을 적절하게 재현하였다. 또한, 동일기간 대청호 수심별 수온 예측을 위한 순환 신경망 모델인 LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)을 개발하였으며, 종속변수는 수온계 체인을 통해 수집한 수심별 고빈도 수온 자료를 사용하고 독립 변수는 기온, 풍속, 상대습도, 강수량, 단파복사에너지, 장파복사에너지를 사용하였다. LSTM 모델의 매개변수 최적화는 지도학습을 통해 예측값과 실측값의 RMSE가 최소화 되로록 훈련하였다. PGDL 모델은 동일 기간 LSTM 모델과 동일 입력 자료를 사용하여 구축하였으며, 역학적 모델에서 얻은 에너지 수지를 만족하지 않는 경우 Cost Function에 Penalty를 추가하여 물리적 보존법칙을 만족하도록 훈련하고 수심별 수온 예측결과를 비교·분석하였다.

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A School-tailored High School Integrated Science Q&A Chatbot with Sentence-BERT: Development and One-Year Usage Analysis (인공지능 문장 분류 모델 Sentence-BERT 기반 학교 맞춤형 고등학교 통합과학 질문-답변 챗봇 -개발 및 1년간 사용 분석-)

  • Gyeongmo Min;Junehee Yoo
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.231-248
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    • 2024
  • This study developed a chatbot for first-year high school students, employing open-source software and the Korean Sentence-BERT model for AI-powered document classification. The chatbot utilizes the Sentence-BERT model to find the six most similar Q&A pairs to a student's query and presents them in a carousel format. The initial dataset, built from online resources, was refined and expanded based on student feedback and usability throughout over the operational period. By the end of the 2023 academic year, the chatbot integrated a total of 30,819 datasets and recorded 3,457 student interactions. Analysis revealed students' inclination to use the chatbot when prompted by teachers during classes and primarily during self-study sessions after school, with an average of 2.1 to 2.2 inquiries per session, mostly via mobile phones. Text mining identified student input terms encompassing not only science-related queries but also aspects of school life such as assessment scope. Topic modeling using BERTopic, based on Sentence-BERT, categorized 88% of student questions into 35 topics, shedding light on common student interests. A year-end survey confirmed the efficacy of the carousel format and the chatbot's role in addressing curiosities beyond integrated science learning objectives. This study underscores the importance of developing chatbots tailored for student use in public education and highlights their educational potential through long-term usage analysis.

Comparison on Patterns of Conflicts in the South China Sea and the East China Sea through Analysis on Mechanism of Chinese Gray Zone Strategy (중국의 회색지대전략 메커니즘 분석을 통한 남중국해 및 동중국해 분쟁 양상 비교: 시계열 데이터에 근거한 경험적 연구를 중심으로)

  • Cho, Yongsu
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.273-310
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    • 2020
  • This study aims at empirically analyzing the overall mechanism of the "Gray Zone Strategy", which has begun to be used as one of Chinese major maritime security strategies in maritime conflicts surrounding the South China Sea and East China Sea since early 2010, and comparing the resulting conflict patterns in those reg ions. To this end, I made the following two hypotheses about Chinese gray zone strategy. The hypotheses that I have argued in this study are the first, "The marine gray zone strategy used by China shows different structures of implementation in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, which are major conflict areas.", the second, "Therefore, the patterns of disputes in the South China Sea and the East China Sea also show a difference." In order to examine this, I will classify Chinese gray zone strategy mechanisms multi-dimensionally in large order, 1) conflict trends and frequency of strategy execution, 2) types and strengths of strategy, 3) actors of strategy execution, and 4) response methods of counterparts. So, I tried to collect data related to this based on quantitative modeling to test these. After that, about 10 years of data pertaining to this topic were processed, and a research model was designed with a new categorization and operational definition of gray zone strategies. Based on this, I was able to successfully test all the hypotheses by successfully comparing the comprehensive mechanisms of the gray zone strategy used by China and the conflict patterns between the South China Sea and the East China Sea. In the conclusion, the verified results were rementioned with emphasizing the need to overcome the security vulnerabilities in East Asia that could be caused by China's marine gray zone strategy. This study, which has never been attempted so far, is of great significance in that it clarified the intrinsic structure in which China's gray zone strategy was implemented using empirical case studies, and the correlation between this and maritime conflict patterns was investigated.

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A Spatial Data Mining and Geographical Customer Relationship Management System (공간 데이터마이닝을 이용한 고객 관리시스템)

  • Lee, Sang-Moon;Seo, Jeong-Min
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.121-128
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    • 2010
  • Spatial data mining has been developed to support spatial association knowledge between spatial features or its non-spatial attributes for an application areas. At the present time, a number of researchers attempt to the data mining techniques apply to the several analysis areas, for examples, civil engineering, environmental, agricultural areas. Despite the efforts that, until such time as not existed practical systems for the gCRMDMs. gCRMDMs is merged with very large spatial database and CRM information system. Also, it is discovery the association rule for the predictions of customer's shopping pattern informations in a huge database consisted with spatial and non-spatial dataset. For this goal, gCRMDMs need spatial data mining techniques. But, nowadays, in a most case not exist utilizable model for the gCRMDMs. Therefore, in this paper, we proposed a practical gCRMDMs model to support a customer, store, street, building and geographical suited to the trade area.

Simulation of Groundwater Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for a Riverbank Filtration Site in Koryeong, Korea (경북 고령군 강변여과 취수 지역의 지하수 유동 모사 및 민감도 분석)

  • Won, Lee-Jung;Koo, Min-Ho;Kim, Hyoung-Su
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2006
  • A 2-D unconfined flow model is developed to analyze annual variations of groundwater level and bank filtration rate (BFR) for an experimental riverbank filtration site in Koryeong, Korea. Two types of boundary conditions are examined for the river boundary in the conceptual model: the static head condition that uses the average water level of the river and the dynamic cyclic condition that incorporates annual fluctuation of water level. Simulations show that the estimated BFR ranges $74.3{\sim}87.0%$ annually with the mean of 82.4% for the static head boundary condition and $52.7{\sim}98.1%$ with the mean of 78.5% for the dynamic cyclic condition. The results illustrate that the dynamic cyclic condition should be used for accurate evaluation of BFR. Simulations also show that increase of the distance between the river and the pumping wells slightly decreases BFR up to 4%, and thereby indicate that it is not a critical factor to be accounted for in designing BFR of the bank filtration system. A sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the effects of model parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and specific yield of the aquifer, recharge rate, and pumping rate. The results demonstrate that the average groundwater level and BFR are most sensitive to both the pumping rate and the recharge rate, while the water level of the pumping wells is sensitive to the hydraulic conductivity and the pumping rate.

Study on the Development of Three-Dimensional Positioning System and Numerical Modeling of Fish Behavior III. Examination of the Numerical Model by the Field Experiment (3차원 어군행동 계측 시스템 개발과 어군 행동의 수치 모델링에 관한 연구 III. 현장실험에 의한 수치 모델의 검토)

  • 장호영;김동수;김영섭
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.18-23
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, the several indexes represented by swimming characteristics of aquarcultured red seabream, Dchrysophrys majors in a farming water raft(10L×10W×5H) were measured by ultrasonic telemetry. The fishes tagged by pingers were tracked by the LBL method(Shin etc., 1994). The location of fishes were calculated by the hyperbolic method and the indexes were estimated by the least square method. The similarity was confirmed by the comparision between experiment and simulation on the swimming trajectory of fishes, the mean distance of individual from wall, the mean swimming speed and the mean distance between the nearest individuals. The obtained results are summerized as follows ; 1. The swimming trajectory of fishes tagged by the pingers and the swimming trajectory by the simulation for 120 minutes showed a simularity. 2. The mean swimming speed by the experiment and the simulation showed 39.2 ㎝/sec (1.4BL ㎝/sec) and 44.4 ㎝/sec (1.6BL ㎝/sec), respectively. 3. The mean swimming depth by the experiment and the simulation showed 238㎝ and 248 ㎝, respectively. 4. The mean distance of individuals from wall of the farming water raft by the experiment and the simulation showed 132 cm and 129 cm, respectively. 5. The mean distance between the nearest individuals by the experiment and the simulation showed 83 ㎝ and 61 ㎝, respectively.

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A Performance Analysis by Adjusting Learning Methods in Stock Price Prediction Model Using LSTM (LSTM을 이용한 주가예측 모델의 학습방법에 따른 성능분석)

  • Jung, Jongjin;Kim, Jiyeon
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.11
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    • pp.259-266
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    • 2020
  • Many developments have been steadily carried out by researchers with applying knowledge-based expert system or machine learning algorithms to the financial field. In particular, it is now common to perform knowledge based system trading in using stock prices. Recently, deep learning technologies have been applied to real fields of stock trading marketplace as GPU performance and large scaled data have been supported enough. Especially, LSTM has been tried to apply to stock price prediction because of its compatibility for time series data. In this paper, we implement stock price prediction using LSTM. In modeling of LSTM, we propose a fitness combination of model parameters and activation functions for best performance. Specifically, we propose suitable selection methods of initializers of weights and bias, regularizers to avoid over-fitting, activation functions and optimization methods. We also compare model performances according to the different selections of the above important modeling considering factors on the real-world stock price data of global major companies. Finally, our experimental work brings a fitness method of applying LSTM model to stock price prediction.