• Title/Summary/Keyword: 순서형 로짓모형

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Disaggregate Demand Forecasting and Estimation of the Optimal Price for VTIS (부가교통정보시스템(VTIS) 이용수요예측 및 적정이용료 산정에 관한 연구)

  • 정헌영;진재업;손태민
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.27-38
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    • 2002
  • VTIS(Value-added Traffic Information System), among the sub-systems of ATIS, is an Advanced Traffic System which innovates efficiency and safety. And this system, having marketability and publicness, is very important. Moreover, This system offers definite traffic information according to the demand of specified users. And it is expected to produce additional spread effects because of high participation rate of private sector. However, the VTIS service media are varied and there are varied optimal Prices and payment methods according to each medium. Because of that, there needs the study on these problems or optimal criteria. But because existing studies were devoted to estimate the optimal route, the study toward the optimal price which was considered part of user and service use demand do not exist. Accordingly, we surveyed under imaginary alternative pricing scenarios and forecasted the use demand of VTIS by using Binary Logit model. Also, for the users who answered that they would use VTIS service in survey, we classified their use's behaviors as four categories and estimated the use ratio to each category by using Ordered Probit model. Last, using sensitivity analysis for results form above, we derived the optimal price that is 2800won in monthly. 145won in payment per call. Then, VTIS service use rate is respectively 65%, 75%.

SNS 프로필 사진이 대출상환에 미치는 영향: 카카오톡 메신저 사진을 중심으로

  • Jeong, Won-Hun;Ha, Gyu-Su
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2020.11a
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    • pp.127-130
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    • 2020
  • 금융시장 환경이 점차 변화하고 있다. 흔히 지점이라 불리는 오프라인 환경에서 애플리케이션을 이용하거나 웹페이지를 이용하는 온라인 비대면 환경으로 이동함에 따라 기존의 정형 정보를 중심으로 한 소비자 행동 예측 방법보다 더 나은 방법을 모색하기 이르렀다. 이에 따라 주관적 비정형 정보의 중요하게 된 것이다. 본 연구는 비대면 대출시장에서 주관적 비정형 정보의 하나인 SNS 프로필 사진과 대출상환에 영향을 미치는 변인을 파악하는 것을 목표로 한다. SNS 프로필 사진은 자신의 감정이나 상태를 표현하는 도구로 떠오르고 있으며, 이러한 차입자의 SNS 프로필사진을 분석함으로써 정보비대칭의 최소화로, 대출심사를 위한 신용평가에 유의적 요소들을 규명하는데 목적이 있다. 본 연구에서는 대출자들이 차입자에 대한 평가의 중요 고려 요소들을 규명하고 탐색하는데 초점을 맞춰 SNS 대안 신용평가만을 심사기준으로 이용한 대출인 텐스페이스의 AI LOAN 대출자중에서 2020년 2월부터 2020년 2월까지 대출자료를 확보할 예정이다. 이러한 자료 중에서 2020년 12월 30일을 기준으로 상환기일이 도래한 대출상환 자료 중 SNS사진을 순서형 로짓회귀모형을 이용해 분석하고자 한다.

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Satisfaction on Marital Relationship of Husband and Wife in Old Age (노년부부가구 남편과 부인의 부부관계 만족도)

  • Kim, Cheong-Seok;Choi, Hyung-Ju
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2011
  • The prolongation of life expectancy has expanded the duration of marriage in old age. In the meanwhile, the change of life style emphasizing privacy and sociodemographic environment favoring independent living has increased the number and proportion of the elderly living with spouse only. This study, focusing on those aged 60 and over who live with spouse only the elderly, explores their marital relationship. The study pays a special attention to compare whether and how the satisfaction on the relationship with spouse would differ between husband and wife. The ordered logit model analysis is conducted based on the nationwide survey '2008 Korean National Survey of Welfare Need in the Elderly'. The results show that the marital relationship satisfaction of husbands is influenced by their own characteristics but hardly affected by his wife's. In contrast, the satisfaction of wife is influenced by husband's characteristics as well as hers. These finding reflect that women are more strongly family-centered and dependent on their husband.

The Effects of Road Geometry on the Injury Severity of Expressway Traffic Accident Depending on Weather Conditions (도로기하구조가 기상상태에 따라 고속도로 교통사고 심각도에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Park, Su Jin;Kho, Seung-Young;Park, Ho-Chul
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.12-28
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    • 2019
  • Road geometry is one of the many factors that cause crashes, but the effect on traffic accident depends on weather conditions even under the same road geometry. This study identifies the variables affecting the crash severity by matching the highway accident data and weather data for 14 years from 2001 to 2014. A hierarchical ordered Logit model is used to reflect the effects of road geometry and weather condition interactions on crash severity, as well as the correlation between individual crashes in a region. Among the hierarchical models, we apply a random intercept model including interaction variables between road geometry and weather condition and a random coefficient model including regional weather characteristics as upper-level variables. As a result, it is confirmed that the effects of toll, ramp, downhill slope of 3% or more, and concrete barrier on the crash severity vary depending on weather conditions. It also shows that the combined effects of road geometry and weather conditions may not be linear depending on rainfall or snowfall levels. Finally, we suggest safety improvement measures based on the results of this study, which are expected to reduce the severity of traffic accidents in the future.

Determinants of Trust in Local Governments - Focusing on Risk Perception (사회 안전인식에 따른 지방자치단체 신뢰도 영향요인 분석)

  • Lee, Yun Ju;Choi, Yeol
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.591-597
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    • 2022
  • As social anxiety is increasing due to the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, the responses at the level of local governments are also changing depending on the characteristics. We analyzed the factors influencing perceptions of social safety as they relate to the trustworthiness of local governments. Based on a 2020 social survey of 16 cities, counties, and districts in Busan Metropolitan City, the effects of householder characteristics, economic characteristics, local attachment characteristics, and social safety perception characteristics on the reliability of the local government were analyzed through an ordinal logistic regression analysis. It was found that the more vulnerable the class was and the safer the region was, the higher the trust was in the basic local government. In order to respond and preemptively recover damage in natural and social disaster situations, continuous efforts are needed to strengthen the capabilities of basic local governments.

Risk Factors Affecting the Injury Severity of Rental Car Accidents in South Korea : an Application of Ordered Probit Model (순서형 프로빗 모형을 이용한 렌터카 사고 심각도 영향요인 분석)

  • Kwon, Yeong min;Jang, Ki tae;Son, Sang hoon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2018
  • Over the past five years (2010-2014), the total number of traffic accidents has decreased from 226,878 to 223,552 with decrease of 0.37 percent each year. The death toll has also decreased from 5,505 to 4,762. However, the number of rental car accidents and fatalities has been steadily increased. Despite of its growth, no previous study has been conducted on rental car accident severity. This study analyzed data of 18,050 rental car accidents in South Korea collected from 2010 to 2014 and then processed in order to identify which factors could affect the accident severity. Seventeen factors related to rental car accident severity were grouped into four categories: driver, vehicle, roadways and environment. As a result of the ordered probit model analysis, fourteen variables excluding age, intersection, and day of week were found to affect the severity of rental car accidents. The results of the study summarized as follows. First of all, violation of traffic regulations such as speeding increase the severity of rental car accidents. Secondly, rental accident severity is higher at curved sections of complicated roadway, which the driver's field of view is impaired. The results of this study can be used to reduce the severity of rental car accidents in transportation safety.

The Estimation of a Probability to visit the Yeosu Aquarium with an Ordered Logit Model (순서형 로짓 모형을 이용한 여수 아쿠아리움 방문확률의 추정)

  • Lee, Chang-Keun;Ha, Jae-Yeon;Kim, Eui-June
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this paper is to estimate a probability to visit the Yeosu Aquarium with an ordered logit model. Ordered logit model is affordable to estimate the probability when the dependant variable represents likert-type scale. The estimated results are as follows. The more income induces the visiting-expectation. The experience for another aquarium and the visiting-expectation for the Yeosu EXPO are contributed to the visiting-expectation for the Yeosu Aquarium. The needs to visit the Yeosu Aquarium is low in Kyoungsang area and Seoul-Kyounggi-Incheun Metropolitan area. This is related to the Aquarium facilities, which were established in each area. In average level conditions regarding to all independent variables the probability to visit the Yeosu Aquarium is calculated to 15.75%. However, the probability to visit to the Yeosu Aquarium is decreasing according to the change of an admission fee.

Reasons for Violation of the Self Carfree Day Policy (승용차요일제 준수와 위반에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Bin, Mi-Yeong;Jeong, Ui-Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2010
  • This research is to analyze reasons for violation of the Self Carfree day policy. It also analyzes satisfaction of the policy participation incentives. The results are that the violation rate is increasing if the drivers live in a zone which is highly energy consuming, which has low potential demand per bus stop and low trip generation per number of houses, which therefore requires more bus routes and bus services, and in which the drivers pay more car operating fees and show less tendancy towards participation even with the 5-10% oil price increase. The results are significant at the 0.05 level.

Analysis of the Implementation of the Residential Improvement Project Considering Land and Building Characteristics - The Case of Busan Metropolitan City (토지 및 건축물특성에 따른 정비사업 추진 분석 - 부산광역시 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Jang, Jin Hyeok;Moon, Jae Soon;Choi, Yeol
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.337-347
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    • 2018
  • The government has been operating residential improvement projects through the "Act on the Maintenance and Improvement of Urban Areas and Dwelling Conditions for Residents" as a type of a remedial measure for deteriorated residential areas. However, in recent years, the residential improvement projects have experienced difficulties due to the effects of various factors including the slowdown in economic growth. After observing the depression in a number of projects, various studies have been carried out to investigate the causality and improve the promotion of the residential improvement projects. In the trend of research, this study aims to analyze the effects of land and building characteristics on the improvement projects of Busan Metropolitan City. The dependent variables of the study represent different phases of improvement project as specified in the "Act on the Maintenance and Improvement of Urban Areas and Dwelling Conditions for Residents". The independent variables represent land and building characteristics which refer to the criteria used in the designation process of maintenance area according to the act. The empirical analysis uses the ordered logit model. The results from the analysis suggest that geographical condition, factors related to the number of union members, factors related to the parcel price and condition of a location have impact on the promotion of the improvement project. The results of the analysis show that majority of the factors are related to the economic feasibility of the projects. Residential improvement project is a part of urban planning projects that rehabilitates deteriorated residential environment, and it is closely associated with the quality of life of public. Accordingly, we hope that such projects are reasonable and take effective approach to those with urgent needs rather than to focus on profitability. Also, potential administrative and economical loss should be avoided by taking necessary planning measures in advance.

Analyzing Community CPTED Perception of Local Residents in the School Areas (학교 주변 커뮤니티 CPTED에 관한 지역 주민의 인식 연구)

  • Ko, Eun Bi;Lee, Jae Song;Chung, Seung Yun;Choi, Yeol
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.891-903
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    • 2017
  • In recent days, school violence has been rising as a significant social problem. The occurrence of school violence can be fueled by a wide range of social and environmental contexts, thus it is very difficult to come up with the ultimate solution. Community CPTED program is one of the more comprehensive set of efforts that has been developed to prevent crime in general, and the primary focus of the study is to investigate suitable components of CPTED to prevent school violence based on the physical conditions of communities as well as the perception of residents outside of school grounds, in the vicinity of schools. Three sets of analyses in series were employed in the research. First, Ward's minimum-variance cluster analysis was used to classify the places where school violence can occur outside of school grounds based on the physical conditions recognized by local residents. Next, Importance-Performance Analysis was performed to analyze the perception of local residents about the importance and the effectiveness of CPTED components in preventing school violence. Subsequently, Ordered Logit Model was used to analyze the local residents' awareness on safety regarding school violence in their community space. Combining the results of the analyses, the priority of the community CPTED applications to prevent school violence outside of school was derived. Reflecting the local residents' perception on safety of students in their community, the sense of security in communities against school violence can be reinforced by the communities' sensible efforts in creating safer environment for their students.