• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수치예보모델

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Simulation of the Ocean Circulation Around Ulleungdo and Dokdo Using a Numerical Model of High-Resolution Nested Grid (초고해상도 둥지격자 수치모델을 이용한 울릉도-독도 해역 해양순환 모의)

  • Kim, Daehyuk;Shin, Hong-Ryeol;Choi, Min-bum;Choi, Young-Jin;Choi, Byoung-Ju;Seo, Gwang-Ho;Kwon, Seok-Jae;Kang, Boonsoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.587-601
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    • 2020
  • The ocean circulation was simulated in the East Sea and Ulleungdo-Dokdo region using ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) model. By adopting the East Sea 3 km model and the HYCOM 9 km data, Ulleungdo 1 km model and Ulleungdo-Dokdo 300 m model were constructed with one-way grid nesting method. During the model development, a correction method was proposed for the distortion of the open boundary data which may be caused by the bathymetry data difference between the mother and child models and the interpolation/extrapolation method. Using this model, a super-high resolution ocean circulation with a horizontal resolution of 300 m near the Ulleungdo and Dokdo region was simulated for year 2018. In spite of applying the same conditions except for the initial and boundary data, the numerical models result indicated significantly different characteristics in the study area. Therefore, these results were compared and verified by using the surface current data estimated by satellites altimeter data and temperature data from NIFS (National Institute of Fisheries Science). They suggest that in general, the improvement of the one-way grid nesting with the HYCOM data on RMSE, Mean Bias, Pattern correlation and Vector correlation is greater in 300 m model than in the 1 km model. However, the nesting results of using East Sea 3 km model showed that simulations of the 1 km model were better than 300 m model. The models better resolved distinct ridge/trough structures of isotherms in the vertical sections of water temperature when using the higher horizontal resolution. Furthermore, Karman vortex street was simulated in Ulleungdo-Dokdo 300 m model due to the terrain effect of th islands that was not shown in the Ulleungdo 1 km model.

Radar rainfall forecasting evaluation using consecutive advection characteristics of rainfall fields (강우장의 연속 이류특성을 활용한 레이더 강수량 예측성 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.39-39
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    • 2021
  • 기상재해를 극소화하기 위해서는 그 원인이 되는 기상현상의 규모와 거동을 명확히 감시하고 분석하여 신뢰성 있는 예측정보가 제공되어야 한다. 최근 위험기상 발생빈도가 증가하여 초단기 및 위험기상 예보의 정확도 향상을 위한 고품질 레이더 정보 활용 연구가 활발하게 진행되고 있다. 레이더는 전자파를 이용하여 강우의 양과 분포, 이동특성을 관측하는 장비로써 우리나라는 초단기적 위험기상 대응능력 향상을 추진하기 위한 목적으로 첨단 성능의 이중편파레이더 관측망을 구축하고 있다. 국내 기상관측용 레이더는 기상예보(기상청), 홍수예보(환경부), 군 작전 기상지원(국방부) 등으로 각 기관이 개별적으로 설치운영 하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 관계부처에서 운영하고 있는 레이더의 합성장을 이용하여 강수장의 상관성을 기반으로 이류(advection) 특성을 도출하였다. 정확도 있는 이류특성을 도출하기 위하여 시간해상도는 10분을 적용하였으며 가우시안 필터링 기법을 적용하여 강수장 상관분석을 수행하였다. 호우와 태풍을 대상으로 강수장의 이류패턴을 추출하여 강수장의 이동방향 및 속도를 고려한 강수량 예측기법의 적용성을 평가하였다. 본 연구 결과는 격자형 강수예측정보를 제공하여 AI 홍수예보 및 수치예보 모델의 초기조건 입력 등에 활용되어 기후변동성에 따른 대국민 안전 실현을 확보하는데 기후변화 대응전략의 핵심기술로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 덧붙어, 4차 산업혁명에 따른 수문기상 빅 데이터(big data) 통합 플랫폼을 구축하여 고해상도 홍수대응 기술 및 GIS 및 모바일 시스템을 연계한 실시간 기후재해 예·경보가 가능할 것으로 사료된다.

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A Study on the Operational Ceiling Forecasting and its Improvement Using a Mesoscale Numerical Prediction Model over the Korean Peninsula (중규모 수치예측 모델을 이용한 한반도 시일링 예보 및 현업 운영 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Kim, Young-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.24-28
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    • 2011
  • This paper reviews a ceiling prediction method based on a mesoscale meteorological modeling system in South Korea. The study was motivated by the tendency of higher model ceiling height than the observed in daily operational forecasts. The goal of the paper is to report an effort to improve the operational ceiling prediction skill by conducting numerical experiments controlling a model parameter. In a case experiment, increasing constant values used in the relationship between extinction coefficients and concentration showed better performance, indicating a short-term strategy for operational local ceiling forecast improvement.

The Analysis of the characteristics of Korean peninsula Aircraft Icing Index using KWRF (KWRF를 활용한 한반도 착빙 지수 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Young-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.42-54
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the aircraft icing index of Korean peninsula using the numerical weather prediction model, KWRF and pilot weather report data. As comparing the pilot weather report data with the calculated icing index using the KWRF model result, SCLW, RAP, and AFGWC index are more useful than any other index, and IC2, NAWAU, and RSID index are different case by case. But IC1, SID1 and SID2 index show that these overestimated severe icing in every vertical level. Through this icing study, it is expected that this study will help to develop the proper icing index of Korean peninsula.

A Verification of threshold of the aircraft turbulence index and icing index using PIREPs and KWRF on Korean peninsula (PIREP과 KWRF를 활용한 한반도 난류, 착빙 지수의 임계값 설정 및 검증)

  • Kim, Young-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.54-60
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is verification of threshold of the aircraft turbulence index and icing index using PIREPs and KWRF on Korean peninsula, to operational weather support. There is improvement in new threshold value made of the pilot weather report data and the turbulence and icing index from KWRF model result, using the ROC Diagram method. the accuracy is up to 0.6 compared with the precedent study result 0.5. Through this study, It is founded on the research and development of the Korean peninsula aircraft turbulence and icing.

Comparison Study of Rainfall Data Using RDAPS Model and Observed Rainfall Data (RDAPS 모델의 강수량과 실측강수량의 비교를 통한 적용성 검토)

  • Jeong, Chang-Sam;Shin, Ju-Young;Jung, Young-Hun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.221-230
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    • 2011
  • The climate change has been observed in Korea as well as in the entire world recently. The rainstorm has been gradually increased and then the damage has been grown. It is getting important to predict short-term rainfall. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) generates numerical model outputs which are computed by Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) and Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS). The KMA predicts rainfall using RDAPS results. RDAPS model generates 48 hours data which is organized 3 hours data accumulated at 00UTC and 12UTC. RDAPS results which are organized 3 hours time scale are converted into daily rainfall to compare observed daily rainfall. In this study, 9 cases are applied to convert RDAPS results to daily rainfall data. The MAP (mean areal precipitation) in Geum river basin are computed by using KMA which are 2005 are used. Finally, the best case which gives the close value to the observed rainfall data is obtained using the average absolute relative error (AARE) especially for the Geum River basin.

Comparison of Four Different Latent Heat Models During the Melting Process (용융시 수반되는 4가지 다른 잠열 모델의 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Hyun;Lim, In-Cheol;Kim, Sung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Foundry Society
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.62-73
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    • 1992
  • 상변환시 수반되는 경계면에서의 잠열의 방출(또는 흡수)의 정확한 해석은 용접, 주조, 결정 생성, 일기 예보 등의 응용에 필수적인 것이다. 특히 주조의 경우 캐스팅 온도와 고체 용적분율의 관계를 앎으로서 잠열 방출의 해석이 가능하다. 본 연구는 상변환시 수반되는 잠열의 방출 형태를 4개의 다른 모델을 사용하여 비정상 온도분포, 용융형태, 자연대류가 미치는 영향을 수치적으로 구하였다. 2개의 서로 다른 물성치를 가진 합금을 선택하였는데 하나는 넓은 mushy 영역을 가진 알루미늄 합금이고 다른 하나는 좁은 mushy 영역을 가진 철금속계 합금이다. 알루미늄 합금의 경우 온도 분포와 시간에 따른 온도의 변화가 모델에 따라 상당한 차이가 있는 반면 철금속계 합금의 경우 상이한 모델일지라도 거의 차이가 없음을 알 수 있었다. 결론으로 용융시 정확한 온도 분포와 상변화 형태를 예측하기 위해서는, 알루미늄 합금(넓은 mushy 영역)의 경우 적절한 잠열 방출 모델의 채택이 필요 불가급한 것으로 사료된다.

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A Comparative Study of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Type in the Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System using the Data of Boseong Standard Weather Observatory (보성 표준기상관측소자료를 활용한 국지예보모델 대기경계층 유형 비교 연구)

  • Hwang, Sung Eun;Kim, Byeong-Taek;Lee, Young Tae;Shin, Seung Sook;Kim, Ki Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.504-513
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    • 2021
  • Different physical processes, according to the atmospheric boundary layer types, were used in the Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) of the Unified Model (UM) used by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Therefore, it is important to verify the atmospheric boundary layer types in the numerical model to improve the accuracy of the models performance. In this study, the atmospheric boundary layer types were verified using observational data. To classify the atmospheric boundary layer types, summer intensive observation data from radiosonde, flux observation instruments, Doppler wind Light Detection and Ranging(LIDAR) and ceilometer were used. A total number of 201 observation data points were analyzed over the course 61 days from June 18 to August 17, 2019. The most frequent types of differences between LDAPS and observed data were type 1 in LDAPS and type 2 in observed(each 53 times). And type 3 difference was observed in LDAPS and type 5 and 6 were observed 24 and 15 times, respectively. It was because of the simulation performance of the Cloud Physics such as that associated with the simulation of decoupled stratocumulus and cumulus cloud. Therefore, to improve the numerical model, cloud physics aspects should be considered in the atmospheric boundary layer type classification.

Development of a heavy rain disaster impact model system (호우 재해영향모델 시스템 개발)

  • Dong Ho Kang;Na Yeon Choi;Byung Sik Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.57-57
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    • 2023
  • 최근 심각한 기후변화로 인한 호우, 태풍 등 기상현상의 변화로 다양한 재해가 발생하고 그로 인한 피해 규모도 커지고 있다. 현재 우리나라의 호우 재해에 대한 예보는 단순히 강수량, 강설량, 바람의 강도 등을 전달해 주고 있는데, 이러한 정보 전달의 형태는 그로 인한 피해 규모를 예측하기 어렵다. 본 시스템은 현재의 단순한 수치만을 보여주는 예보에서 호우가 어느 지역에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지에 대한 정보를 전달한다. 시간대별 격자단위(1km×1km)로 구획하여 그 영향이클 것이라고 예상되는 9개 분야(생활, 도로, 농업, 편의, 공업, 의료복지, 교육연구. 축산업, 공용)의 정보를 전달 해 줌으로써 경제적, 산업적 측면에서 재난으로 인한 피해를 최소화할 수 있도록 하였다. GIS와 호우위험영향도 분석결과를 제공하는 플랫폼이며 주요 기능은 종합위험등급 현황을한 눈에 볼 수 있는 GIS 대쉬보드 상황판과 IBH-HR(예측강우분석), IBF-G(수문분석), IBF-PRA(리스크 분석) 3개의 분석 모듈 그리고 분석 모듈을 통해 도출된 분석결과를 관리하는 ARM(분석이력관리)으로 구성되었다. 다양한 콘텐츠 서비스로 호우 영향정보의 활용성이 클 것으로 기대된다.

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A Numerical Modeling Study on the Seasonal Variability in the Gulf of Alaska (알라스카 만의 계절변화에 대한 수치모형 실험)

  • Bang, In-Kweon;Zygmunt Kowlik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.309-325
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    • 1994
  • Ocean circulation in the Gulf of Alaska is remarkably constant throughout the year despite of being forced by one of the largest seasonal wind stresses in the world. To explain the small seasonal changes in the transport of Alaska Stream. a set of numerical models is employed. First a diagnostic approach is applied to reproduce circulation from the observed density structure. The results reveals the very small seasonal changes in the Alaska Stream transport. Next a series of the prognostic models is used: a barotropic model. a flat bottom baroclinic model, and baroclinic model with topography. These models reveal the influence of topography and baroclinicity on the ocean's response to the seasonal wind forcing. The intercomparisons of the various model results suggest that the seasonal response of the baroclinic ocean is primary barotropic and the resultant barotropic circulation is weakened by the scattering effect of the bottom topography.

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