• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.39 no.10
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• pp.27-39
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• 2023

To effectively manage flood risk, it is crucial to assess the stability of flood defense structures like levees under extreme flood conditions. This study focuses on the time-dependent probabilistic assessment of embankment slope stability when subjected to rapid water level drops. We integrate seepage analysis results from finite element analysis with slope stability analysis and employ Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the time-dependent behavior of the slope during rapid drawdown. The resulting probability of failure is used to develop fragility curves for the levee slope. Notably, the probability of slope failure remains low up to a specific water level, sharply increasing beyond that threshold. Furthermore, the fragility curves are strongly influenced by the rate of drawdown, which is determined through hydraulic analysis based on flood scenarios. Climate change has a significant impact on the stability of the water-side slope of the embankment due to water level fluctuations.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.20 no.8
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• pp.97-102
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• 2004

In this paper, a finite element based method far determining factor of safety of slopes which has certain advantages over conventional limit equilibrium methods is described. Particularly, the slope failure behaviour considering different seepage conditions is produced by finite element method using strength reduction technique. It is shown that both the failure mechanism and the safety factor that are analyzed by the FEM using strength reduction technique are an effective means of slope stability analysis. And the stability of a slope with rising water table and rapid drawdown are analyzed and the results are compared with the simplified Bishop Method of the Limit Equilibrium Methods.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.149-158
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• 2015

It is well known that emergency outlet works have to be provided for the safety of dams. However, concept of emergency outlet works did not applied for the design of the most dams in Korea. Korean design standard for low-level outlet works does not provide enough design criteria which could be used in design of emergency outlet works. In this research, as-built status and hydraulic design criteria of outlet works, such as drawdown rate or hydraulic pressure due to the impounded water depth, were examined. Another relationship between drawdown rate and the dam slope stability was also examined with SEEP model. It was found that 25% reduction of impounded water depth decreases the pressure forces about 50%. Therefore, outlet works should be designed to drawdown properly at the beginning of the emergency. Seepage analysis of dam bodies showed that most of Korean dams could safely stand for 1m/day drawdown rate. Higher drawdown rate could result high discharge so the drawdown rate must be related with the flood risk of downstream. Finally, multi-stage design was recommended that faster discharge for the initial 25% of water depth in 7-10 days than the rest of it in 1-2 months.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.1-8
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• 1985

Stability analysis of the embankment as to water level varation is the most important problem in the safety of the slope because the stress of embankment inside varies as to drawdown of seepage line. Especially when the water level is rapidly drawdown, because the flow direction of the free surface changes the toe of embankment, the factor of safety comes to small, therefore the embankment is dangered. For the purpose of studing these phenomena, the experimental models are built with sand in the laboratory. In the experimental consideration, the falling seepage line and the shape of failure are measured. This paper intends to study the failure slip surface, the relationship between the factor of safety and drawdown velocity, and hydraulic gradient. The results of the experimental study are summarized as follows; 1. Owing to the drawdown of free surface, sliding failure occurred in the upstream fill, the height of failure is 5~10, 9~15, and 13~21(cm) in each model. 2. In consideration of the distribution of pore water pressure Table-5 shows each factor of safety. In the relationship between the drawdown velocity and the factor of factor it's velocity should be limited to 0.21~0.28 (cm/sec), according to each models. In the relationship between the factor of safety and the hydraulic gradient within the upstream slope, it's gradient must be below 0.36~0.43.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.31 no.8
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• pp.51-62
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• 2015

It is not possible to provide resonable evidence for embankment (or dam) overtopping in geotechnical engineering, and conventional analysis by hydrologic design has not provided the evidence for the overflow. However, hydrologic design analysis using Copula function demonstrates the possibility that dam overflow occurs when estimating rainfall probability with rainfall data for 40 years based on fluctuating water level of a dam. Hydrologic dam risk analysis depends on complex hydrologic analyses in that probabilistic relationship needs to be established to quantify various uncertainties associated with modeling process and inputs. The systematic approaches to uncertainty analysis for hydrologic risk analysis have not been addressed yet. In this paper, the initial level of a dam for stability of a dam is generally determined by normal pool level or limiting the level of the flood, but overflow of probability and instability of a dam depend on the sensitivity analysis of the initial level of a dam. In order to estimate the initial level, Copula function and HEC-5 rainfall-runoff model are used to estimate posterior distributions of the model parameters. For geotechnical engineering, slope stability analysis was performed to investigate the difference between rapid drawdown and overtopping of a dam. As a result, the slope instability in overtopping of a dam was more dangerous than that of rapid drawdown condition.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.242-242
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• 2017

산업혁명 이후 인간사회의 산업화 및 도시화의 가속으로 지구온난화는 기후변화를 야기해 왔으며, 이로 인한 각종 부정적인 영향과 심각성은 날로 커져가고 있는 현실이다. IPCC(Intergoverment Panel on Climate Change)는 기후변화의 주범인 온실가스를 감축할 지라도 기후의 탄성 때문에 앞으로 수세기 이상 계속 진행될 것으로 전망하였으며, 기후변화 영향의 근원적 방지는 불가능하기 때문에 결국 수자원 관리 측면에서도 기후변화에 적응하기 위한 각종 적응전략 개발의 필요성을 강조하였다(IPCC, 2007). 최근 제방의 안정성에 대한 문제로 기후변화에 따른 홍수위 또는 담수 등의 조건으로 제외지의 고수위를 유지하게 되어 제체 내 침투가 일어날 수 있고, 수위급강하로 제방사면의 활동등이 일어날 수도 있으며 기초지반의 지지력이 부족하여 침하가 과다하게 발생하므로 제방의 소요높이를 유지할 수 없게 되어 월류로 인한 피해가 발생할 수 있다. 본 연구는 제방의 간극수압자료와 2차원 지하수침투 모형인 SEEP/W를 이용하여 안양천과 오산천의 침투거동을 분석하여 침투안정성을 평가하고자 하였다. 또한, 4대강 살리기 마스터 플랜(국토해양부, 2009)에 수록된 제방보강의 방법 중 누수에 대하여 제방고, 제방폭 및 제내지반고의 변화를 통한 지하수 침투거동을 모의, 분석하여 침투안정성을 평가하였다. 또한 기후변화에 따른 도시하천의 수문특성 변화분석 결과를 바탕으로 향후 발생할 수 있는 극치 수문사상의 값을 반영한 설계기준 강화 수방시설 계획 등의 연구에 활용하며, 여러 가지 수문학적 불확실성에 의하여 가변 가능한 도시하천 유역의 취약성 평가 및 위험도 분석을 통한 기후변화 대응과 수공구조물 설계 및 수방전략 수립에 활용하고자 한다.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.21-32
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• 1991

The purpose of this paper is to develop a reliability model for slope stability of Earth-rockfill dams which accounts for all uncertainties encountered. The uncertain factors of the design variables include the cohesion, the angle of internal friction, and the porewater Pressure in each zone. More specifically, the model errors in estimating those variables are studied in depth. To reduce the uncertainties due to model errors, updated design variables are obtained using Bayesian Theory. For stability analysis, both the two-dimesional stability analysis and the three-dimensional stability analysis where the end effects and the system reliability concept are considered are used for the reliability calculations. The deterministic safety factor by the three-dimensional analysis is lager than that by the two-dimensional anlysis. However, the probability of failure by the three-dimensional analysis is about 3.5 times larger that by the two-dimensional analysis. It is because the system reliability concept is used in the three-dimensional analysis. The sensitivity analysis shows that the probability of failure is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the cohesion than that of the angle of internal friction.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.277-288
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• 2017

A probabilistic risk analysis of levee system estimates the overall level of flood risk associated with the levee system, according to a series of possible flood scenarios. It requires the uncertainty analysis of all the risk components, including hydrological, hydraulic and geotechnical parts computed by employing MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo), MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) and FOSM (First-Order Second Moment), presents a joint probability combined each probability. The methodology was applied to a 12.5 km reach from upstream to downstream of the Gangjeong-Goryeong weir, including 6 levee reaches, in Nakdong river. Overtopping risks were estimated by computing flood stage corresponding to 100/200 year high quantile (97.5%) design flood causing levee overflow. Geotechnical risks were evaluated by considering seepage, slope stability, and rapid drawdown along the levee reach without overflow. A probability-based compound risk will contribute to rising effect of safety and economic aspects for levee design, then expect to use the index for riverside structure design in the future.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.25-38
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• 1996

To investigate the stability problem of irrigation-drainage channel excavation slope on soft ground, analyzed the behavior of the soft ground with excavation slope by the limit equilibrium method and the finite element method, and compared with field tests. The results of this study were summarized as follows; 1. When rapid drawdown the water level, the crack was occurred by the effect of the excess pore water pressure, and the pore water pressure was decreased slowly. 2. As the width of excavation was larger, the crack width was larger. And, excavated depth was deeper, the progressive failure was appeared. 3. When the soft ground excavation was small-scale, the minimum safety factor was more effected by cohesion(1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0) than excavated slope inclination(1:l, 1:1.5, 1:2). 4. As excavation was progressed, the settlement occurred on the top-slope due to plastic domain, and heaving was occurred at the bottom of excavation. 5. The maximum shear stress was appeared greatly as the base part of slope went down. Because of the increase of the maximum shear stress, tension area occurred and local failure possibility was increased. 6. As the excavation depth was increased, the maximum shear strain was appeared greatly at the base of slope and distribution pattern was concentrated beneath the middle of slope.